Cuban Cigar problems from a B&M in Europe

[Fugu]

18 hours ago, BEVOSREVENGE said:

Would be interesting if anyone reports back about them changing their pricing since earlier in the week.

Don't actually expect them to increase prices short-term (not easily possible for a single retailer in Europe on regulars anyway), but there may be 'particular' reasons they feel the urge to quickly move some stock....  At least that's how I read it.

[PigFish]

... thanks to a brother for sending me the email.

You know, I cannot pretend to read intentions. But if my friend Rob here (I hate to bring him into it) sent me an email saying that PCC was having shortages, I would simply believe him, that he was giving me some industry insights, like he often does.

While I can look at this negatively, and look to stomp on the vendor for a shabby attempt to gouge for cigars (what I implied from a previous post) after reading the email, I see nothing wrong in attempting to tell his customers that he expects supply problems. The question is, what is he going to do to save his business if that happens?

Shabby or not so shabby, I am not going to try and read some nefarious business intent into the email. If the guy is running out of Cohibas, maybe his customers, the ones that can't or don't shop elsewhere might want to know!!!

If I was this guy, maybe I might be contacting Phoenicia looking for my Cohibas and my Monte Eagles...! But if he is not willing to be gouged, why should any of you?

Cheers! -Piggy

[Fugu]

Have to disagree with this, Piggy. Because, what's the avail of that? If there is a shortage, there is a shortage. Panicking will only worsen the sitation as that is likely to induce shopping frenzies and hoarding. Stocks will dwindle even quicker. Pple will panic-buy up stuff they even didn't had in mind buying at all before.... The temporal gap between lasting old stock and availability of new stock will only be deepened.

Would make sense if a merchant found a way to remedy that situation and to effectively calm down on clients. I fear Rob didn't do any better for tranquilization with his mail in the other thread, though I believe, it was with best intentions.

[Fosgate]

I sense bull sh$t.

American tourism is still minimal for two reasons. One, to go there we need to have special approved purpose. Sure you can fly to Mexico or Jamaica and bounce from there into Cuba, but the average tourist isn't going to hassle with that. Second, American tourism/vacation hot spots are usually a "little America" outside the U.S. (IE: Cancun, cruiz ships etc.) all inclusives where they stay at the resort. I learned this by trying to book a trip to the Philippines and the local travel agencies were way out of their league as they only book vacations at their packaged bundles where everyone else goes. It will be awhile before Cuba reaches the level where the common American Tourist will flock. 

Sounds to me they are hoping for a run on cigars like the American firearm industry in 2014 when suddenly everybody was buying whatever they could get their hands on for 100-800% more than normal and manufacturers could not keep up with the demand as shelves emptied and people hoarded. 

That being said from a smoking standpoint. From an investment standpoint if your a collector that likes to buy, store and sell a few later on it may be different. I remember in 2010 a young college kid was standing in class talking about a new electronic cash system called Bitcoin that was selling for $.10 a coin and encouraging us all to buy in. We ignored it. About a year or two later there was some controversy with Bitcoin, banks lost money, founder killed or something. Despite the going $18 a coin at the time, Bitcoin looked like it was going to be a fad like many others that just wont work. We joked about it with a couple professors. I just looked at it yesterday and see it is now valued at $686 a coin and at one time was as high at $1200. Can you imagine what buying just $1000 worth at the first approach could have been? I wonder if that kid in that class sank some in and is now wealthy. Not to suggest the same volatility, but more of a look back of "what if".

[QuaiDorkay]

On 10/15/2016 at 3:04 PM, cigaraholic said:

Too late......I panicked 11 years ago 

 

 

Hilarious...Me too and so glad I did!!  Every year seems to get better.  Look at the jl's and ryj's the last couple years, the ra's and partagas staples a few years before that, can't wait to see what turns the corner next.  Love the waves of quality turn, it makes me all giddy every time.  

[miurajus]

Analogies that I share rarely equate to justifying their content but here goes, I see it similarly to equities when brexit was voted on.  Very roughly I believe we are facing a gray swan event.

Scope, impact, fall out, end point... Incalculable.  We have input from various sources, the email first shared, Rob's insight, our own here.  As with anything else we will align on one side of the fence, or the other.

With volitility peaking in the markets you undeniably took a beating, or had a large gain in the short term following.  Much IMO is the same here, long term entrance points will undoubtedly present themselves once the dust settles. The only real risk is taking an extreme stance trying to avert losses altogether.  A more even keel approach will undoubtedly expose you to some risk, but also prevent you from large loss.

IE... Buying all out, demand and prices don't take a hit.  You expend more than you would have and don't enjoy the selection you otherwise would have.

Buy nothing, prices increase dramatically.  You cannot source what you want without accepting jacked up cost.

Placing yourself somewhere near your current origins allows you to avert dramatic changes.  I'll listen to Rob, carry on as usual, make adjustments as info from (trusted providers) people more in the know than I comes forth.  If they don't know how it pans out, I am pretty sure I don't either at this stage.

As he also said, rarely does the hype justify our worst case scenarios.  The longer I play this game, the more I value patience.

[Olga]

That B&M is known to cause a lot of drama, often to increase their sales, and so I would take what they say with a grain of salt. 

Seeing their email reposted here made me cringe. 

[LGC]

In addition to the source... we also have to understand we are talking about higher priced cigars.... not natural gas, gasoline, etc.

[PigFish]

22 hours ago, Fugu said:

Have to disagree with this, Piggy. Because, what's the avail of that? If there is a shortage, there is a shortage. Panicking will only worsen the sitation as that is likely to induce shopping frenzies and hoarding. Stocks will dwindle even quicker. Pple will panic-buy up stuff they even didn't had in mind buying at all before.... The temporal gap between lasting old stock and availability of new stock will only be deepened.

Would make sense if a merchant found a way to remedy that situation and to effectively calm down on clients. I fear Rob didn't do any better for tranquilization with his mail in the other thread, though I believe, it was with best intentions.

Option pieces are just that my friend. Now, if I were to find out that this is an absolute fabrication, I would call the guy a fraud. But I don't have that data!

Not everyone belongs to a Cuban cigar forum, or knows vendors personally. We all get our information from different sources.

If the water company sends me a letter saying that water rates are rising, and tells me why, they are not telling me to use more water today! So there are two sides to the coin and the coin spins in a space that can be viewed from many a perspective.

Look, if you want to say that the guy is a charlatan, man that is okay with me! I could care less about him. But the 'benefit of doubt' has saved him from my negative opinion. He is on his own with the rest of the world!!! -R

[Fugu]

You didn't get my point, Piggy. But nevermind.

Now, have to rush to get my bulk order of Monte Opens out...

 

[N.B. Not saying this merchant is a charlatan, that would be overshooting. Más de un charlatán (s. str.).]

[Orion21]

There is a difference between a business owner who happens to be a promoter and a promoter that happens to be a business owner . . .

 

[PigFish]

20 hours ago, Fugu said:

You didn't get my point, Piggy. But nevermind.

Now, have to rush to get my bulk order of Monte Opens out...

 

[N.B. Not saying this merchant is a charlatan, that would be overshooting. Más de un charlatán (s. str.).]

... you're mumbling again! -LOL

-R

[Fugu]

5 minutes ago, PigFish said:

... you're mumbling again! -LOL

-R

Yep - greatest mumbler here....