Cuba struggles to save prized tobacco crop

[El Presidente]

This really is awful news. Jose has been keeping me informed over the past three weeks and it indeed is ugly.

http://www.reuters.com/article/cuba-usa-cigars-idUSL2N15B211

After unusual weather, Cuba struggles to save prized tobacco crop

SAN JUAN Y MARTINEZ, CUBA | BY MARC FRANK

http://www.reuters.com/article/cuba-usa-cigars-idUSL2N15B211

Jan 28 Highly unusual weather has damaged Cuba's tobacco crop, raising concerns among farmers and cigar-lovers that the island's supply of its famous cigars might suffer at a time of increased demand resulting from detente with the United States.

The weather phenomena El Niño led to Cuba's worst drought in a century in 2015, followed by heavy rain during the northern winter, which is normally a dry period in Cuba.

While all Cuban crops have suffered, delicate tobacco plants are especially vulnerable. Rains have wiped out production at some plantations and severely damaged others. In response, tobacco farmers are replanting now, out of season, in hopes of salvaging the 2015-2016 harvest.

In western Pinar del Rio province, where most of Cuba's tobacco is grown, farmers are slogging through rain and mud to replant destroyed crops. The best Cuban tobacco is cultivated from late October into early January and then harvested into March.

"This has been a disaster, not just for us, but everyone," Juan Hernandez said as he steered his oxen-pulled plow through rain and a field of mud where tobacco plants once stood. "We are trying to see if we can still have a harvest."

Down the road, 60-year-old farmer Andres Chirino picked damaged leaves from plants and scowled.

"I have been growing tobacco since I was born and this is the worst harvest in my experience," he said. "Look at those stains and rot on the leaves. The quality is bad so we will earn much less."

The impact on cigar supply has yet to be determined, as tobacco normally requires at least two or three years of curing, fermenting and ageing. Farmers and cigar experts say there have been several weak harvests in recent years, inconveniently occurring just as tourism in Cuba is booming.

The cigar monopoly Habanos S.A., a joint venture between the Cuban state and Imperial Tobacco Group PLC, has adequate stock to manage a dip in supply, said Carlos Ferran, an executive who was surveying western farms. Other Habanos officials referred questions to holding company Tabacuba, which did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

David Savona, editor of Cigar Aficionado magazine, said Habanos reported three substandard harvests in a row before this year, but so far cigar quality has been maintained.

"Cuban cigars have been doing superbly in our ratings for the past several years," Savona said. "They've admittedly had some weak harvests at a time when people are thinking more and more about Cuban cigars. That can hurt you down the road."

MORE SOGGY WEATHER AHEAD

In the short-term, meteorologists forecast more soggy weather in February and March.

"The normal is a little rain every once in a while, but it has been raining day after day with tremendous intensity," said Ivan Rodriguez, spokesman for the famed Alejandro Robaina Tobacco Plantation.

An outlier, the Robaina plantation has been largely unaffected by the weather due to its elevated ground and resistant seeds.

Pedro Jesus Alonso, western regional director of the Agriculture Ministry's export company CATEC, insisted others could also save the harvest.

"Everything depends on a little improvement in the weather," he said. "If it does not rain too much the harvest can get back on track." (Reporting by Marc Frank; Additional reporting by Daniel Trotta; Editing by Daniel Trotta and Frances Kerry)

[NSXCIGAR]

Well, the silver lining is that quality has been unquestionably high from 2013 onwards despite the apparent run of poor harvests. HSA is doing something right these days. Makes me hopeful for the next few years when the harvests pick back up.

I found this odd:

Down the road, 60-year-old farmer Andres Chirino picked damaged leaves from plants and scowled.

"I have been growing tobacco since I was born and this is the worst harvest in my experience," he said.

Now, I'm assuming he was around in 1980...

[irratebass]

I was just about to post this Prez. Sad news indeed

[TonyAccardo]

I guess I'll worry when I'm having a hard time securing a box from FOH. Despite all of the reported bad harvests over the past few years, quality has never been higher in my buying/smoking career. I'll still keep purchasing at my usual rate at 2-3 boxes a month on average.

[El Presidente]

I would say that right now, 20 % of Cuban Premiums listed as in production, are not available to distributors either "at all" or "in pitifully small" quantities.

Leaf shortfall is biting. 2016 was always going to be difficult in terms of supply. A good crop this year wouldn't have solved this years issues, but would have provided some comfort moving forward.

[Hoepssa]

Is substandard harvest a sign that HSA to slow down their bigger-size hunt ?

[squizz]

Bummer!

[El Presidente]

Is substandard harvest a sign that HSA to slow down their bigger-size hunt ?

Worse. They will use more of their premium large wrappers for the new jawbreakers.

It is smaller selling large premiums such as SLR DC that will suffer.

[foursite12]

Rob, wine grape quality can suffer terribly with wet seasons, resulting in thin, insipid wine. Is tobacco richness similarly correlated to the weather?

[El Presidente]

Rob, wine grape quality can suffer terribly with wet seasons, resulting in thin, insipid wine. Is tobacco richness similarly correlated to the weather?

I am not a farmer, but having spoken with many a veguero over the years (big and small), sunshine, stable temps are the key. Many believe that a little bit of stress (trickle water supply), enhances the oil in the leaf.

[SCgarman]

El Nino has wreaked havoc with the weather here all over the US. The DC area is finally recovering from historic snowfall last weekend.

In the end, mother nature always wins. Just a fact of life. Life goes on.

[kuma]

Here in the northeast of the states (CT) we are going to have 50 degree weather this Sunday. The jet stream is

high and dry again which makes for warm temps. below the stream. For us here it so far has been a warm /

very few snow storms to date. Sorry to hear that the farmers in Cuba are all stressed out. I guess EL Nino

is like a "knife" it cuts both ways. Again sorry to hear this news. Poor Farmers.

[mrsgucia]

that's why...

[ChampagneInHand]

I grow wine grapes in NY. Hard times are the rule rather than the exception but there are plenty of organic and non-organic ways to save a crop. I hope they aren't using 17th century farming techniques still. You don't have to spray a lot but stuff like sulfur and cooler sulphate do a lot to preserve a great crop. Farming is tough life anywhere. Mine is more microvineyard backyard stuff to understand the great terroir. All is not list and much about crops being difficult is said to drive up prices.

Only time will tell whether El Niño breaks anybody but it's been hard in farmers all over.

What shall we have? An '82 Margaux! Is it any good? Good....?, It will make you believe in God!

[mrsgucia]

We just need to buy all 2014 and 2015 crop before it's all gone...

http://www.havanainsider.com/cubas-2014-2015-cigar-harvest-best-in-recent-years

[LutzSpearo]

We just need to buy all 2014 and 2015 crop before it's all gone...

http://www.havanainsider.com/cubas-2014-2015-cigar-harvest-best-in-recent-years

Does this suggest that the cigars coming out in 2016 and 2017 may be of exceptional quality and quantity?

[Fosgate]

Watch, they have never seen it like this. Just watch what comes out of this to be one of the most sought after box year for the ages. Wishful thinking I guess. I just hope they don't chop some of the less sought after or newer brands like San Cristobal.

[TonyAccardo]

So, my understanding of the time lines in maturing tobaccos, the soonest we would see this bad year affecting our boxes of cigars would be 2018 , and that would only be wrapper and volado. Now that's assuming that they have absolutely no reserves and from what I've heard Rob say in past threads, they have quite a bit on reserve. I'm thinking this is not near as big of a problem for us, the end consumer, as it is for the farmers who rely on their yearly crop to survive. I definitely can see this being a great reason for Tabacuba to raise prices more than the regular annual 6-8% though, and THAT is bad news to me.

It is reasons such as this amongst a few others that I spend all I possibly can on cigars now because they certainly ain't going to be getting cheaper and more than likely will start rising significantly in the next five years. It's also a case of striking while the irons hot as these past 2-3 years have been the best we've seen in about 15 years. Who knows which way it's going to go or if it'll keep up.

[Ryan]

With the exception of wrapper tobacco (farmers are paid much more for that) farmers are paid for their tobacco by weight, not by quality.

The term "bad harvest" doesn't mean "poor quality tobacco". It means less tobacco than hoped for.

There is a saying with Cuban tobacco farmers "peso es pesos", "weight is money".

[planetary]

I don't understand the conflicting reports many reports stating the 2014-2015 harvest as the best of the century. On the other hand the Prez says this "Leaf shortfall is biting. 2016 was always going to be difficult in terms of supply." and

David Savona, editor of Cigar Aficionado magazine, said "Habanos reported three substandard harvests in a row before this year, but so far cigar quality has been maintained"

I don't understand when were these bad harvest? and for me production years 2014 & 2015 have been the best production quality, flavor, appearance cigars ever and a quantum leap better then past. Just look at comments like Romeo Y Julietta after 5-6 years of basically terrible quality there back awesome strawberries n cream. Cohiba Esplendidos/robustos after like 10 years of sleeping they're phenomenal that incredible Esplendidos taste is back and I totally agree with this. Even small brands like San Cristobal they are phenomenal.

Can someone provide me with a coherent logical explanation for such polar opposite comments stated at the beginning of this post?

Morgan, I think the comments about 2014 and 2015 were about production releases, not harvests. In most cases, as I understand the process (not as well as some here!), tobacco releases of a given year used tobacco harvested from ~2-3 years prior. For example, most 2015 production cigars would have used leaf harvested in 2012 or 2013.

This harvest-vs-release difference is part of what makes Reserva Cosecha and Gran Reserva releases special. They use prime leaf that's been curing for longer periods of time.

[ElPuro]

Interesting. Certainly likely to drive up demand and is a good justification for raising prices. Wonder if the story was encouraged/driven by the monopoly (though I don't doubt there to be an issue).

[planetary]

Ryan - agreed. Prez made mention above that having a good 2016 harvest would have been a comfort for both continued recovery after 2013-4, and with Cuba facing an open US market, which might lead to a production ramp which could stress production and lower quality.

...Alas, this was not the case, and now it's two poor harvests in three years' time, as you note.

[Fugu]

So, my understanding of the time lines in maturing tobaccos, the soonest we would see this bad year affecting our boxes of cigars would be 2018 , and that would only be wrapper and volado. Now that's assuming that they have absolutely no reserves and from what I've heard Rob say in past threads, they have quite a bit on reserve.

It may also lead to a more hurried maturing/fermentation process while stocks dwindle. So let's hope we won't see again more green and underfermented tobacco in the future.

A three-year underperformance will certainly show some effect somwhere in the supply-quality balance.