US strike Venezuela and capture Nicolas Maduro

[JohnnyO]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. This was too easy it and was probably planned this way on both sides. OK, so you got Maduro out of there, what about the other 1000's of schlamiels that are running the government? How do you get them out? What's their payoff? How do you get rid of the Cuban intelligence that has infiltrated on all levels? Before we get to that, here are a few facts to study. US light sweet crude is usually only good for gasoline. Venezuelan Heavy Sour Crude is more efficient in producing diesel and other industrial lubricants. There is a worldwide shortage of diesel. Pre-Chavez Venezuela (1998) was producing 3.5 million barrels of crude daily, today about 1 million. So the #'s with their inefficiencies are way down. A result of communist meddling that can't foresee that re-investment is necessary. Before the US stopped buying crude from Maduro in 2018, their purchases were $42 million daily. So I think there is plenty to go around. Industry Experts say it would take 5-10 years for Venezuela to return to '98 production numbers. So the US companies are going to waltz in there with some contract, take out all the oil they want and there will be no resistance? Oh, I suppose you are going to put a Marine on every corner to enforce this. Not only that, how are you going to get rid of the communist culture that is running the government? Cuba will struggle in many ways. More exodus, shortages and excuses. I don't see anything positive for the two countries for quite some time. Lies, more lies and the grift. John

[El Presidente]

What a first day back thread  

JohnS is right in that US Political discussion as it pertains to Cuba is permitted. Outside of that, it's a no go area on forum. Jump on one of our Zoom sessions and we can debate global geopolitical issues until the cows come home. We do it and it is highly educational and entertaining (for me at least!).  We do it the right way with respect. 

I predicted in my Christmas 2025 wrapup that the Cuban cigar world come end 2026 will look a lot different to end 2025. Well, I think I said that because I can't be bothered rereading my post 

It is going to be a fascinating year. Hold on people. 

[Duxnutz]

The US begun intercepting oil tankers destined for Cuba a few weeks ago. Now, after current events in Venezuela there must be zero oil coming in to Cuba. How are they making power? Am I understanding this correctly? 

[03Hemi]

IBL

Literally every Venezuelan today with the exception of two.

[SCgarman]

2 hours ago, Duxnutz said:

The US begun intercepting oil tankers destined for Cuba a few weeks ago. Now, after current events in Venezuela there must be zero oil coming in to Cuba. How are they making power? Am I understanding this correctly? 

They are likely out of power and oil/ energy real soon. There's nobody coming to their rescue anymore.

[JohnnyO]

4 hours ago, Duxnutz said:

The US begun intercepting oil tankers destined for Cuba a few weeks ago. Now, after current events in Venezuela there must be zero oil coming in to Cuba. How are they making power? Am I understanding this correctly? 

Those tankers were headed to China. Some tankers headed to Cuba had been going to Nicaragua or Mexico. Then they would change crude to other tankers that travel under another flag. Right now who ever is in position to make a buck and save themselves in Venezuela will be doing so. They are not thinking about Cuba. They are thinking about filling those bags of cash and going abroad. At some point no one is going to hold their ground. BTW, those tankers going to Cuba are not about the locals. It's about who they can sell it to in the region; Cayman, Bahamas, Jamaica so they can blame everything on the blockade. John

[MrBirdman]

On 1/5/2026 at 8:11 AM, LizardGizmo said:

This morning on Meet the Press, Rubio said when asked if the Cuban government is the administration's next target: "I think they're in a lot of trouble. I'm not going to you talk about what our future steps are going to be and what our policies are going to be...but we're not big fans of the Cuban regime..."

Pretty clear non-denial denial that something is brewing.

Starts at 17:07:

We know they want regime change there - I think it’s still up for debate how far they’ll actually go beyond economic pressure. Venezuela and Cuba are ultimately motivated by similar but distinct interests. Venezuela is about geo-strategic resource control, both for its inherent value and as a check on China. As a result, the admin will work with whoever ends up in charge as long as they give the US priority access to their oil and dance to Washington’s tune in their relations with other major powers.  

There’s no question Cuba is a huge priority for Rubio as a second generation Cuban. Rubio also knows this could be his last job as a public official in Washington, and what an accomplishment it would be to see real change there.

But Cuba is different than Venezuela. It’s importance to the US is mostly geopolitical and, to some extent, still ideological. Cuba has been a fixation - some would argue near obsession - for foreign policy hawks for decades. Many would contend that their focus is way out of proportion to the island’s actual value. Cuba can’t offer the US control of a vital resource to placate the administration, and is less valuable to adversaries as well. That begs a question: does Washington want anything short of regime change, and if so, what? Nobody who cares about Cuban emancipation will be satisfied with promises to liberalize the economy. 

Realistically, regime change is very unlikely except at the end of a gun barrel. As I see it with Cuba, the administration either goes in for window-dressing “reform” we’ve seen before, or they buy the whole enchilada. I’m not sure they’re ready to pay that price. A total blockade is the closest I think we’d see.

I guess you can kidnap the entire regime but, as that housekeeper said, who takes over then? 

[Arabian]

17 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

I guess you can kidnap the entire regime but, as that housekeeper said, who takes over then? 

Easy, it was done in Iraq, they imported the opposition from abroad (Mainly the UK) which formed the Coalition Provisional Authority (a puppet-corrupt transitional government). I'm sure you'll find a few Cubans chillin' in Florida who can happily apply. But the outcome isn't guaranteed, the Iraqi model is still a disaster. 

Back to Oil, Venezuela might take a decade or longer to improve and overhaul its oil/ energy infrastructure. It simply isn't just opening the taps. Massive investments coming and hopefully the Venezuelan people will benefit from it. However, corruption always hang around the oil industry and if there's no accountability and integrity. You'll end up with a few people with fat pockets while the rest of the population live in poverty and nothing changed.

[Vetteman]

My 2 cents - I think Cuba has been on Rubio’s radar for a long time. I don’t think US administration pressure is going to back off unless things go really bad in Venezuela.

[ha_banos]

Thirty-two Cubans killed during US attack on Venezuela - BBC News

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj9r0eyw0jno

Anything interesting here? Bodyguards? Elite forces? Poor soldiers?

[MrBirdman]

13 hours ago, Arabian said:

Easy,

We invaded Iraq and essentially built the new government from the ground up. My entire point is that the US is unlikely prepared to use ground troops to stabilize and rebuild. Without that, there’s no guarantee anyone better will step into the power vacuum. More likely, the next in line in the regime will step up, the Florida Cubans you airdrop into Havana are executed, and little changes.

In short, a very different prospect for regime change, unless there’s an invasion.

Update: Quote just published from Michael Bustamante, a Cuba expert and an associate professor at the University of Miami. “Rubio’s intentions have always been clear. But he’ll have to answer: Who can they cut a deal with? And the answer is no one.”

 

[MrBirdman]

42 minutes ago, ha_banos said:

Thirty-two Cubans killed during US attack on Venezuela - BBC News

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj9r0eyw0jno

Anything interesting here? Bodyguards? Elite forces? Poor soldiers?

It’s long been heavily rumored that Maduro’s personal security detail was Cuban. The attack eliminated any doubt. The regime has also relied on Cuban intelligence operatives to manage its repression apparatus as well. Probably part of how Cuba paid for the oil they got.

[lb.cigars]

The capture of Nicolás Maduro has injected even more uncertainty and confusion into Cuba's already fragile political and economic landscape. Cuba appears on the brink of collapse—facing severe blackouts, fuel shortages, and a deepening economic crisis—yet this isn't the first time the island has teetered on the edge without falling. Confirmed reports of Cuban personnel deeply embedded in Maduro's security detail (with dozens reportedly killed during the operation) reinforce long-standing rumors of Havana's influence in Caracas. This raises questions about whether Cuban advisors played a role in preventing Maduro's surrender or in broader strategies involving groups like the Cartel de los Soles and Tren de Aragua. Some sources suggest these efforts were part of a deliberate plan to foment unrest in the U.S. (e.g., through migration surges and anti-immigration backlash) to stem population loss from both countries.
 

Without Venezuela's subsidized oil—long a lifeline for Cuba—the regime's survival looks increasingly tenuous. Lacking significant resources like oil or major strategic value beyond ideology, Cuba has become more of a symbolic cause than a priority. That said, figures like Secretary of State Marco Rubio have made clear their focus on Havana, viewing Maduro's fall as a potential catalyst for change in Cuba.

Shifting to the Cuban cigar industry: Recent developments around Habanos S.A. are intriguing amid this instability. Rumors of the Chinese-linked equity stake (associated with fugitive Chen Zhi) being up for sale predated his status as a wanted man following the massive $15 billion Bitcoin seizure tied to alleged scams. With Chen Zhi facing sanctions and asset freezes from the U.S., UK, and China, any potential sale carries huge risks—courts could reverse it or even allow governments to claim the assets.

Speculatively: Who would invest in a state-owned Cuban entity under the current political cloud? If the regime collapses, that equity could become worthless overnight. I suspect the end of the current Cuban system would also spell the end of Habanos S.A. and authentic Cuban cigars as we know them—though the industry might adapt under new ownership.All of this is, of course, heavy on speculation given the fast-moving events. 

[Puros Y Vino]

Well. Looks like Cuba is indeed on the list. Lindsay Graham said it out loud for the Press.

https://v.redd.it/nuukx1rvggbg1  

[MrBirdman]

7 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

Well. Looks like Cuba is indeed on the list. Lindsay Graham said it out loud for the Press.

https://v.redd.it/nuukx1rvggbg1  

I never heard the word invasion in that clip. 

There’s gonna be a lot of talk in the coming days. Whether that means action is another question. The impulsivity at the top is the wild card here. I won’t get into the illegality of an invasion without Congressional approval because legal norms around the presidency have broke down so much that I’m not sure it matters right now. 

I agree it’s not out of the question. But it’s also by no means a fait accompli. I think an operative insertion to organize a resistance that calls for help is another possibility.

 

[JohnnyO]

The 32 Cubans killed were national security officials. Not some janitor(s) that just happened to be there. The US may not have to invade, as oil reserves may go to zero in a short period of time in Cuba. John

[MrBirdman]

5 hours ago, JohnnyO said:

The 32 Cubans killed were national security officials. Not some janitor(s) that just happened to be there. The US may not have to invade, as oil reserves may go to zero in a short period of time in Cuba. John 

I read somewhere 20 days worth of reserves left before they’re down to domestic production only. Sourcing wasn’t clear though. 

[Bijan]

Could the Chinese supply oil to Cuba? What if they did?

[Namisgr11]

China is an oil producer, but is the world's largest oil importer. As such, it doesn't seem likely that China will be supplying all of Cuba's oil needs anytime soon.

[SCgarman]

22 minutes ago, Bijan said:

Could the Chinese supply oil to Cuba? What if they did?

China, nope. Russia, nope. Cuba is truly an island unto itself now. Buckle up and watch. Things are really going to change. Drastically. 

[MrBirdman]

1 hour ago, Bijan said:

Could the Chinese supply oil to Cuba? What if they did?

Realistically it would mean buying all the oil they send them since they’re a massive importer. They’re already pinched from losing ready access to Venezuela. Not sustainable long term. Mexico produces oil but PEMEX is loaded with debt and can’t afford more than token amounts (I think the last shipment was 7k barrels), and of course there’s the pressure from the US. Support for Cuba is just a leverage ploy for US negotiations. 

[Bijan]

If Cuba is importing so much oil, is there a big push from US oil producers to fill the gap?

[ha_banos]

55 minutes ago, Bijan said:

If Cuba is importing so much oil, is there a big push from US oil producers to fill the gap?

Cuba has been getting oil. But likely not paying for it. So why would they? Trump transactions require balance in his favour. ⚖️

[MrBirdman]

17 minutes ago, Bijan said:

If Cuba is importing so much oil, is there a big push from US oil producers to fill the gap?

They can’t afford it. They’ve been paying Venezuela in kind by sending doctors, bodyguards, etc.

[Bijan]

7 minutes ago, MrBirdman said:

They can’t afford it. They’ve been paying Venezuela in kind by sending doctors, bodyguards, etc.

Presumably they could send doctors and bodyguards elsewhere and use that to pay the US oil producers. I mean if Trump is entirely transactional.