US strike Venezuela and capture Nicolas Maduro

[VasileDulap]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5yqygxe41pt
 

Curious how this will impact Cuba.

[BrightonCorgi]

Considering Sec. of State Rubio's stance on Cuba, I bet there will be some changes coming.  

 

[ha_banos]

Drugs and oil in one. Hopefully stop some of the drugs coming into London. Big business over here. The Albanians/Turks will be annoyed I guess.

Back to the Middle East next?

[SCgarman]

The dominos will start to fall. Grab a nice "maduro" stick out of your humidor and light it up in celebration.

[LizardGizmo]

The economic and socialogical decline in Cuba since Covid arrived is really quite incredible. I honestly can’t imagine what this year will look like for the Cuban people. I have a tremendous amount of empathy and - at the same time - a feeling of dread and helplessness for my friends and the people there. If there is no meaningful economic lifeline provided to them, it’s seeming like we are about to witness an unimaginable acceleration of suffering.

Diaz-Canel has definitely been making sure his plane is fueled up.

[helix]

4 hours ago, LizardGizmo said:

Diaz-Canel has definitely been making sure his plane is fueled up.

It is within the realm of possibility if the US told the regime to leave or else, they just might. Not much left to steal anymore.

[ha_banos]

I didn't realise there's involvement by Cuba implicated in all this from testimonies from those already captured. Is this where the oil exchange comes from? 

Hugo Carvajal, former Venezuelan intelligence chief who defected and pleaded guilty in U.S. court, claimed Cuba masterminded the Cartel de los Soles by advising Hugo Chávez in the mid-2000s on weaponized drug trafficking against the U.S.

 

[Arabian]

I'll be checking out my small portfolio of Saudi Aramco and SLB stocks tomorrow.

[Salomones]

Just have seen Trump here:

At 1:20:18 he talked about Cuba.

What does he mean? Can anyone explain?

And what will be the Impact for Cuba now?

[Arabian]

On 1/4/2026 at 1:25 AM, ha_banos said:

Drugs and oil in one. Hopefully stop some of the drugs coming into London. Big business over here. The Albanians/Turks will be annoyed I guess.

Back to the middle East next?

My top 3 guesses-

1 - Colombia. 

2 - Cuba.

3 - Iran.

[SCgarman]

Cuba will likely fall like a one legged man without a crutch. Time will tell.

[BrightonCorgi]

Rubio will be tight lipped on what's next for Cuba until it's obvious where it's going. No Venezuelan oil to the island is the first thing he mentioned.

As much as we could steam roll over Cuba, the "what's next" is a lot more difficult. Venezuela has a longing for how it was and the natural resources to make it happen. Cuba, well that is a much different story and circumstance.

[LizardGizmo]

From WSJ:

The operation to remove Venezuela’s president has put more pressure on longtime U.S. nemesis Cuba. President Trump, asked about Cuba during his press conference Saturday, replied: “I think Cuba is going to be something we’ll end up talking about because Cuba is a failing nation right now, very badly failing nation, and we want to help the people.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Cuba a “disaster,” adding: “If I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I’d be concerned, at least, a little bit.”

Somebody warm up the Gulfstream!!

[WestCoastSmokin]

Just follow the oil, that’s all they care about. Maduro was simply in the way, but if the Venezuelan people wanted change, they got it. 

[ha_banos]

No surprises looking at the countries with the largest oil reserves.

 

[chasy]

I’m hopeful this will be an improvement for Venezuela and its people. Hard not to be.

[zacca]

2 hours ago, chasy said:

I’m hopeful this will be an improvement for Venezuela and its people. Hard not to be.

Considering the millions of people who lost everything and had their lives ruined over the last couple decades, I’d say you’re right. Hard not to be an improvement from here. 

[Marco_011t556]

Disaster for Cuba… 

[yuppie]

9 hours ago, Marco_011t556 said:

Disaster for Cuba… 

Can you expand on that? I've heard Trump saying he's looking at Cuba, Mexico, etc. I want to believe that removing the military regime from Cuba would result in an improvement, but I'm not sure what or who would replace that. 

[Li Bai]

That is one dangerous thread...

[MrBirdman]

3 hours ago, yuppie said:

Can you expand on that? I've heard Trump saying he's looking at Cuba, Mexico, etc. I want to believe that removing the military regime from Cuba would result in an improvement, but I'm not sure what or who would replace that. 

Cuba has gotten subsidized, practically free oil from Venezuela since 2000, which has been essential to keeping them afloat. It's around 40-50% of their energy imports and a key source of hard currency (earned by selling some of the oil directly to China).

Short term, this will make life for Cubans even hard than it's been. Will it lead to regime change on its own? Doubtful. There's no organized opposition, and most people with the enthusiasm, ambition, and means for a better life have already left the country. We really don't know what Trump's plans are - possibly neither does he. Wait and see is only approach I'm afraid.

The defeat of the Cuban security apparatus around Maduro has to have Havana nervous. If the accounts of the raid I have read are true, they were both infiltrated for weeks and rather incompetent in securing Maduro's person. They basically relied on his ability to get into a safe room without an automatic door. Pretty fricking stupid. A high-level safe room should have doors too heavy to quickly close manually and should close pneumatically in a few seconds at most. Inexcusable considering they have the state's resources at their disposal and have known for weeks the US was coming. Why wasn't he sent in there the second bombs went off? Another screw up. Makes me wonder whether there was more than intelligence coming from inside his circle. 

Granted, knowing Trump, the backup plan was killing Maduro from the air if he secured himself, so maybe it was the right call.

Update: Trump has said he is not considering military action against Cuba, and the regime will fall on it's own. I'm skeptical. Whether this is a bluff remains to be seen. If the US starts indicting or putting our rewards on Cuban leadership or GAESA brass, could foreshadow a redux of Venezuela. 

[MrBirdman]

Quote from a story in the Guardian:

“Some people say [the US forces] should come here too, to take Díaz-Canel away,” said María Karla, a 26-year-old housekeeper. “But there is no opposition here to take charge of the country, nor is there any [opposition] leader. So it would be totally crazy,...”

[LizardGizmo]

This morning on Meet the Press, Rubio said when asked if the Cuban government is the administration's next target: "I think they're in a lot of trouble. I'm not going to you talk about what our future steps are going to be and what our policies are going to be...but we're not big fans of the Cuban regime..."

Pretty clear non-denial denial that something is brewing.

Starts at 17:07:

 

[Li Bai]

Guys, with all due respect, you probably shouldn't be feeding this thread, we all know this isn't gonna end well...

[JohnS]

This thread has now been cleaned up to ensure it stays on-topic. Specifically, this means that as per the forum rules, political discussion in relation to foreign countries is permitted when it pertains to including information on US foreign policy. In layman's terms, this means that discussion on Venezuelan oil reserves or the political stability of Cuba as a result of this recent military action will continue. Discussion of US politics and other comments, whose pertinence to the thread comes into question, will not.

Please be mindful of this course of action in your replies. Our host, who has been on a well-deserved break over the Christmas/New Year break will be back this week and will most likely add his executive discretion within this thread where it is deemed necessary.