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Posted

I have stayed away from bourbon in general over the past couple of years because prices had become unrealistic IMO.

I was pleasantly surprised though when I visited the liquor store last week to pick up some "holiday cheer". Many of the mainline brands like Maker's Mark, Woodford, etc. were selling for ~ $25 which has made me think about starting to drink bourbon again.

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Posted

US whiskey producers need to work building market in India. There's a lot of business to grow and they haven't focused on it the way they should.  

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Posted

The tides were already turning with oversupply and the additional trade uncertainty and costs didn't help. Add to that a new generation that doesn't drink, and you've got a crisis coming. 

The consumers worked themselves into a frenzy over the stuff in the last 10 yrs - following distribution trucks on delivery days, buying and flipping even regular bottles on the secondary market creating an even greater shortage and further panic. 

Some distilleries increased production thinking a boom was the new norm and are now faced with a bleak future. Some held the line knowing all booms pass and keeping QC high by not dumping under-aged barrels for consumption - they were vilified by the consumer just so they could get their hands on a bottle of something 'special '. The grudges by the entitled are still held by many.

It doesn't matter what the product is - these cycles will always exist in a free market, so adapt to new conditions wisely.

Cheers!

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Posted

Fine bourbon whiskey has shown consistent growth (even with/prior COVID being factored). Bourbon production and capacity follows 5 year "cycles" in which surplus or deficit can be projected. As members have already discussed, the next few years should hold more availability at better prices. Knob Creek, Buffalo Trace, and many other distillers are already pivoting towards aging stock a bit longer to combat the affects of gross surplus (Eagle Rare 12 year release, Knob Creek 23 year release). Anything distilled by MGP (distiller conglomerate) with low or no age statement is going to be first on the chopping block. Me personally, I enjoy a good barrel strength non-MGP distillate. My palate favors grape and stone fruit so naturally I gravitate to Buffalo Trace's Stagg, Eagle Rare, and other kinds of alcohol like Cognac.

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Posted

The market can't continue on a geometric expansion trajectory forever or we'd run out of oak trees. There are still new micro distilleries popping up, I feel bad for them as it will be difficult get your name out there in this market.  

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Posted

I like how Gen Z don't drink, I wonder what chaos would transpire in a sober future. They have initiated several revolutions so far, sobriety really is a tricky thing.

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Posted
11 hours ago, Ethernut said:

Being from Kentucky and somewhat involved in the bourbon industry, I can confidently say the issue has nothing to do with politics as the article quickly pointed out, as is fashionable. 

What’s really happened is the secondary market bubble burst. The craze ended. Distilleries spent the last decade doubling and tripling their production capacity and now sit on a bunch of stock.

What’s going to happen on a long enough timeline is we end up with some interesting super aged stock coming into the next decade. I don’t see bourbon coming back for a while. Many enthusiasts that drove the demand have moved on to other spirits like high end tequilas, Mezcal and Rums. 

Warning! warning!  Do NOT feed the @Ethernut, you may risk unleashing the fury of his legend upon this forum, and I think in today’s day and age it would be too much dopamine overload for those unaccustomed to these type of things!   

*He knows I am just joking, nice to see you post old friend, let’s catch up soon please, it’s been too long.  

**Do take him seriously on all things Whiskey/Bourbon—he is a genuine expert on the subject.  

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Posted
23 hours ago, Ethernut said:

Being from Kentucky and somewhat involved in the bourbon industry, I can confidently say the issue has nothing to do with politics as the article quickly pointed out, as is fashionable. 

What’s really happened is the secondary market bubble burst. The craze ended. Distilleries spent the last decade doubling and tripling their production capacity and now sit on a bunch of stock.

What’s going to happen on a long enough timeline is we end up with some interesting super aged stock coming into the next decade. I don’t see bourbon coming back for a while. Many enthusiasts that drove the demand have moved on to other spirits like high end tequilas, Mezcal and Rums. 

Largely agree it's not primarily caused by politics/tariffs, though I think this does impact the industry's ability to expand into emerging markets to a degree, which would help offset the decline they're seeing in consumption for the younger generations (that's the real issue here).

There is some nuance to the secondary market  point....yes, the craze has ended with regard to guys standing in line to buy allocated shelfers like OWA, EHT, etc and selling them for 2 or 3 times markup. But it appears secondary is still strong with regard to vintage/dusty bottles and older limited edition bottles such as BTAC, old WT limiteds, and so on. I casually lurk and watch on Unicorn Auctions and am still surprised at what I'm seeing in terms of hammer price for these bottlings.

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Posted

It certainly doesn't have anything to do with the largest purchaser of alcohol in the world has stopped buying from the USA. Article suggests "most" places in Canada still remain firm. 

Correction. ALL of Canada still remains firm. Only some provinces has sold off their stock and donated money to charity. Ontario won't even do that. Like I said above, the US needs to get in bed with a new bourbon lover. Maybe India is the answer. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

Maybe India is the answer

India just lowered their industry protecting tarriffs on bourbon from 150% to 100%. Not alot of hope there. Big picture, Japan is the most sophisticated international market for Bourbon, eg Blantons, Olde St Nick. Too bad that's declining population. 

Boom/bust distillation cycles are a thing, look at Scotland since early 1800s. That history is basically why Diageo and Pernod own so many distilleries and to an extent why Rosebank, Port Ellen, and Clyendish/Brora are sought-after. Age numbers and pricing are the main issue, making bourbon aspirational and IGable. A very senior liquor buyer in TX remarked years ago that Old Crow was better than the HTF bottlings that people where calling about anyway, but tag it and put it on the shelf.

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Posted

A couple of weekends ago I stood in 18 degree F temps for hours for a chance to snag some highly allocated stuff, and I wasn’t alone. There was probably 500 other people there. In the top ten numbers called, half of the people appeared to be flippers. Just SAD. Greed is what will kill it, greed from the flippers and greed from the producers boosting prices and limiting stock. 

Plenty small places going broke already. 

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Posted
15 hours ago, Çnote said:

India just lowered their industry protecting tarriffs on bourbon from 150% to 100%. Not alot of hope there. Big picture, Japan is the most sophisticated international market for Bourbon, eg Blantons, Olde St Nick. Too bad that's declining population. 

India has the population size (1.4 billion) to overcome any tariff consideration on Bourbon.  There's never been a concerted effort to really build the market there.  Same with a handful of other cherished American food/drink items, but that is a for another thread.

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