What is SWIFT and why it might be the weapon Russia fears most

[Bijan]

22 minutes ago, nKostyan said:

As for Europe, for the USA it is the same competitor as China. Blocking SWIFT and depriving the European industry of cheap Russian gas, thereby reducing the competitiveness of European goods, is one of the goals.

A similar thing happened with Iran and swift plus sanctions (against Iran but forced by the US on third party countries) which made Europe and most countries stop buying Iranian oil. Now only China (which won't follow US orders) and a few other countries who are allowed to buy less and less oil over time.

[Corylax18]

6 hours ago, nKostyan said:

Ukraine is a corrupt country with a ruined industry. It has to be sponsored by someone. Until 2014, Russia was the sponsor: cheap gas, duty-free trade and rent of a base in Crimea. If there had been a need, Ukraine could have been captured completely at the end of 2014, when its army suffered a complete fiasco in the Donbass. But Russia didn't need it. Instead, the "Minsk agreements" were concluded, which ensure the integrity of the country, two regions are given the opportunity to self-government (approximately the same as US states). However, so far Ukraine has not fulfilled the Minsk agreements. At the end of 2021, Ukraine assembled a shock army on the border with Donbass to resolve the issue by force. To warn Ukraine against a military solution, Russia has made it clear that its army is ready to support the rebels.

As for Europe, for the USA it is the same competitor as China. Blocking SWIFT and depriving the European industry of cheap Russian gas, thereby reducing the competitiveness of European goods, is one of the goals.

So if the US decided it was sick of footing the bill for Puerto Rico (which is far more dependent on us then any part of the Ukraine is to Russia) you would be OK with us Invading them? Using 2% of the population as justification? Just the east side of the island first, with just the tip, just to see how it feels. (Crimea) then we'll wait for the mean lady next door to retire so we can just take the whole thing. 

Ukraine is a SOVERIEGN NATION, far more than Puerto Rico is. Invasion of either country by the US/Russia, Whoever is unacceptable. The Minsk Protocal Failed right away, before 2014 was even over, which is why we had "Minsk II" which also failed almost immediately. That was Feb, 2015. 7 Years Ago! But Putin just realized this a few weeks ago? Give me a break. 

Lets take it one step further, The US "Supports" lots of corrupt Countries with Ruined industries, a huge portion of the Caribbean in fact. We send food, medicine and lots of "rent" for our military bases. Would you be ok with us using every protest in Cuba to expand Guantanamo bay? There are "rebels" there sympathetic to the US cause. Can we use that small (but much, much larger % vs pro Russian Ukrainians) as Justification to take the country over one town at a time? 

There are "rebels" in Chechnya. Would you be ok with Georgia or Armenia "sponsoring" this part of the country that's "approximately the same as the US states'? Blaming the Ukraine for the failure of all agreements so far is an extremely Myopic view, it takes two to tango. 

Its also comical for me to hear a Russian say another country is corrupt, with a straight face. It would be a kin to me saying it with a straight face. 😄

[nKostyan]

Its also comical for me to hear a Russian say another country is corrupt, with a straight face. It would be a kin to me saying it with a straight face. 

Corruption exists in every country. Somewhere more, somewhere less. It is impossible to measure exactly. Just as it is impossible to objectively measure the level of democracy. Ukraine is a black hole, which is now funded by US, EU and international funds. Putin does not want to take her back for financing. That's what I'm trying to explain.

There are "rebels" in Chechnya. Would you be ok with Georgia or Armenia "sponsoring" this part of the country that's "approximately the same as the US states'?

But that's how Putin solved the problem with Chechnya. He gave this republic special sovereign rights.

[MrBirdman]

On 1/28/2022 at 5:54 PM, NSXCIGAR said:

But if Russia invades don't the chances of Ukraine joining NATO increase? If eastern Ukraine broke off Russia would have a buffer zone and Ukraine would feel a lot less threatened as well not having to worry about Russia in the east. I'm just asking what are the actual pros and cons of splitting the country and also asking whether remaining intact is a realistic long-term proposition.

No, the odds of Ukraine joining NATO will disappear if there is an invasion, because the Russians will install a puppet regime in Kiev that is pro-Russian and thus would never agree to join NATO. This is why breaking off parts of the country for Russia won't satisfy anyone - what Russia ultimately wants is a firm halt to the expansion of NATO (if not a retreat). The only way to get that is installing a new regime through invasion or securing a guarantee from western powers never the admit Ukraine (which the Russians have asked for and been denied). 

On 1/29/2022 at 6:02 PM, NSXCIGAR said:

I'm just curious as to why splitting the country isn't being discussed as a viable option.

Because most of the heavy industry and natural resources lie in the east. If Ukraine would split, the western country (i.e. the democratic one) would be one of the poorest countries in Europe, if not the poorest. And lest we forget, Russia already stole the Crimea, along with its ports.

Furthermore, slicing up democratic countries to sate the immediate demands of aggressive, autocratic powers smacks of 1938 and appeasement. I can't imagine it would be acceptable to the US or EU.

[MrBirdman]

On 1/30/2022 at 8:25 AM, Corylax18 said:

Its also comical for me to hear a Russian say another country is corrupt, with a straight face.

Maybe he was cracking up when he wrote it! 😉 In his defense, there isn't much of an independent media in Russia. 

On 1/30/2022 at 9:25 AM, nKostyan said:

Corruption exists in every country. Somewhere more, somewhere less. It is impossible to measure exactly.

True, but you can still roughly measure it, and there are NGO's that routinely do. And in every index I can find Russia is ranked as more corrupt than Ukraine. 

On 1/30/2022 at 9:25 AM, nKostyan said:

Ukraine is a black hole, which is now funded by US, EU and international funds.

Ukraine, unlike Russia's ally Belarus, is economically self-sufficient. Yes, it receives military aid from the US, but so do many other allies in Eastern Europe and elsewhere. There is no justification under international law or precedent for Putin's aggressiveness towards the Ukraine. It is about undoing the collapse of the Soviet Union, checking NATO, and diminishing the US military presence in Europe. If you want to defend the action on those terms, you are welcome to do so. But let’s be real about what’s going on here.

 

[Bill Hayes]

Interesting to see where Crypto sits in this space? I'm ignorant financially though, I admit, but with Bitcoin at a low, would it be time for Russia to load up and try and manipulate the currencies viability to pump up the price once they've filled their boots? Just a question for the financially gifted from a perennial over-spender and punter. Ha ha!

[Corylax18]

29 minutes ago, Bill Hayes said:

Interesting to see where Crypto sits in this space? I'm ignorant financially though, I admit, but with Bitcoin at a low, would it be time for Russia to load up and try and manipulate the currencies viability to pump up the price once they've filled their boots? Just a question for the financially gifted from a perennial over-spender and punter. Ha ha!

What!?! Wouldn't it make more sense for them to work on the value of their actual currency first? You know, the Ruble, the one that millions of people use, billions of times a day, for real transactions? Its been in steady decline against a basket of other currencies for the majority of Putin's reign. Why do you think Moscow has steadily climbed the list of most expensive cities in the world? It ain't because of immigration. 

[Bill Hayes]

40 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

What!?! Wouldn't it make more sense for them to work on the value of their actual currency first? You know, the Ruble, the one that millions of people use, billions of times a day, for real transactions? Its been in steady decline against a basket of other currencies for the majority of Putin's reign. Why do you think Moscow has steadily climbed the list of most expensive cities in the world? It ain't because of immigration. 

See, I told you I had no idea about finance. Ha ha!

[Corylax18]

1 hour ago, Bill Hayes said:

See, I told you I had no idea about finance. Ha ha!

Haha. I get the theory. They accept payment in BTC (or whatever coin) as an alternative to using the swift system and tell everybody else to kick rocks. The only problem with that is the pipelines physically pumping the CNG into Europe. Unless Germany really wants to get in bed with Russia, it would be tough for them to tell everyone else they turned off the taps while the gauges are still spinning away. Maybe Turkey plays ball and acts as a "fence", but their existing pipelines are already full, so again, really nowhere to hide the gas. Its a problem I struggle with far too often. 

[Trapper99]

12 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

No, the odds of Ukraine joining NATO will disappear if there is an invasion, because the Russians will install a puppet regime in Kiev that is pro-Russian and thus would never agree to join NATO. This is why breaking off parts of the country for Russia won't satisfy anyone - what Russia ultimately wants is a firm halt to the expansion of NATO (if not a retreat). The only way to get that is installing a new regime through invasion or securing a guarantee from western powers never the admit Ukraine (which the Russians have asked for and been denied). 

Because most of the heavy industry and natural resources lie in the east. If Ukraine would split, the western country (i.e. the democratic one) would be one of the poorest countries in Europe, if not the poorest. And lest we forget, Russia already stole the Crimea, along with its ports.

Furthermore, slicing up democratic countries to sate the immediate demands of aggressive, autocratic powers smacks of 1938 and appeasement. I can't imagine it would be acceptable to the US or EU.

Pretty sure Ukraine to NATO is already out the door with the current conflict going on. Plus, Germany is taking it so deep from Russia they would never approve it.

But yes, your whole post is spot on. Putin wants a Yanocovich (sp) type president back in Kyiv. Problem is the Ukrainians won’t vote for someone like that anymore. And the whole “Ukraine is corrupt to screw them” is a load of bull. They are no more corrupt than any of the other players in this timeline. It doesn’t mean their sovereignty means nothing anymore.

 

 

To answer the original topic, if the international community cut Russia from SWIFT, Russia would respond by cutting under sea cables. Already in Norway a cable was cut, and suspected to be Russia. They are currently holding sub exercises over a cluster of cables between GB and the USA.

[NSXCIGAR]

4 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

No, the odds of Ukraine joining NATO will disappear if there is an invasion, because the Russians will install a puppet regime in Kiev that is pro-Russian and thus would never agree to join NATO.

Yes, obviously if Russia were to sack Kiev that would be the case and Russia would own Ukraine. But that would be a months or years long process. What stops a pre-sacked Kiev from requesting immediate NATO membership and the west being agreeable due to Russian occupation of the east with clear sights set on Kiev? In other words do you think the west will just allow Russia to take Kiev with only economic sanctions? Would Europe be willing to cut them off of SWIFT in that case and would that be enough of a deterrent?

4 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

Because most of the heavy industry and natural resources lie in the east. If Ukraine would split, the western country (i.e. the democratic one) would be one of the poorest countries in Europe, if not the poorest. And lest we forget, Russia already stole the Crimea, along with its ports.

I see. So the west does have a strong interest in remaining whole. But if the Russian occupation of the east is inevitable wouldn't the west be wise to split now rather than be subject to the political capture by Russia? Even if they lost the industry a closer relationship with the west and Europe could certainly improve their economic situation. 

27 minutes ago, Trapper99 said:

if the international community cut Russia from SWIFT, Russia would respond by cutting under sea cables.

That would seem to me to be an "attack", and if any NATO countries are affected, wouldn't that justify a NATO response? 

[Trapper99]

30 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Yes, obviously if Russia were to sack Kiev that would be the case and Russia would own Ukraine. But that would be a months or years long process. What stops a pre-sacked Kiev from requesting immediate NATO membership and the west being agreeable due to Russian occupation of the east with clear sights set on Kiev? In other words do you think the west will just allow Russia to take Kiev with only economic sanctions? Would Europe be willing to cut them off of SWIFT in that case and would that be enough of a deterrent?

I see. So the west does have a strong interest in remaining whole. But if the Russian occupation of the east is inevitable wouldn't the west be wise to split now rather than be subject to the political capture by Russia? Even if they lost the industry a closer relationship with the west and Europe could certainly improve their economic situation. 

That would seem to me to be an "attack", and if any NATO countries are affected, wouldn't that justify a NATO response? 

First paragraph: If I’m not mistaken, any country with an active conflict can’t be admitted to NATO. Also, it requires unanimous approval of all NATO countries, and I’m sure Russia has enough leverage over Europe (looking at you Germany) to keep that from ever happening. I think the ship has sailed for Ukraine to NATO from ever happening. The west doesn’t have the stones for it.

Second paragraph: From my time in Ukraine, I think the area that would be most receptive to a Russian occupancy already are. Any new areas taken are going to be at a great lost to the Russians once they have to leave their tanks and “occupy”. I don’t see the Ukrainian people just folding to an occupation of new areas. IF Putin does something, IMO he will move in, destroy the military, and GTFO and then work on getting a Russian aligned president, IMO.

Third paragraph: It could be? I don’t know if it’s confirmed Russian subs cut the cable to Svalbard, but all the news articles I’ve read about it rumor it to be, because it wasn’t accidental. And the Russians have a NOTAM for an area they are doing exercises in the Atlantic, and it’s right over cables. It’s likely them posturing saying “you cut us from swift, and we can cut your cables”. I don’t think NATO has the stones to do anything about it anyways. Putin knows what he can get away with with the weak leadership of the west.

I don’t claim to be some expert on Ukraine, I just follow it closely cause my wife’s parents and babuskas live about 150 miles from the front lines. They are packed and ready to head to Lviv if a invasion occurs. 

[NSXCIGAR]

2 hours ago, Trapper99 said:

I don’t think NATO has the stones to do anything about it anyways. Putin knows what he can get away with with the weak leadership of the west.

I guess that's always what it's come down to. Obviously he will push right up to the limit--it's going to be his judgment as to what he thinks the limit is. 

If NATO has no teeth then Russia could certainly choose to cut cables if kicked out of SWIFT with no repercussions, and therefore probably won't be kicked out. 

I guess unless the US starts arming Ukrainians to the teeth Russia is in the driver's seat on this. I guess once the economic ties between Europe and Russia became too strong it put Russia in a position to be able to do this. It might be way past the point of stopping it. 

[MrBirdman]

3 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

That would seem to me to be an "attack", and if any NATO countries are affected, wouldn't that justify a NATO response? 

I am not sure the question of whether cutting undersea cables constitutes an act of war has ever been adjudicated - it's highly unusual for them to be cut intentionally by anyone, let alone a state. 

3 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

But if the Russian occupation of the east is inevitable wouldn't the west be wise to split now rather than be subject to the political capture by Russia? Even if they lost the industry a closer relationship with the west and Europe could certainly improve their economic situation. 

I really don't think Putin would accept this arrangement either - he would rather just control the whole country. Any expansion of NATO is out of the question, from his perspective.

3 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

What stops a pre-sacked Kiev from requesting immediate NATO membership

The prospect of World War III. Kiev wants to join NATO, but the US and especially the Europeans are now wary of further inflaming the situation. It also comes with a cost to western powers - the US public is less interested than ever in pursuing costly foreign force-deployment for goals on the fringe of its empire. Putin knows this and is exploiting it to strengthen Russia's hand. Thus one should see his concern about NATO as longer-term and much broader than just Ukraine's membership. Ukraine is a leverage point to obtain concessions on US troop and missile deployments in Eastern Europe. Establishing a Ukrainian state aligned with Russia is the next logical step in doing so. 

Ultimately, the West (particularly the US) is wary of getting too bogged down with Putin because it doesn't see Russia as its 21st geopolitical adversary - that is China. And frankly, I agree. Russian is ultimately a strong shell with a soft center - they have reestablished a top-rate military, but their economy is a hollowed-out petro-state dependent on the price of oil. 

China not only has a far more robust economy and rapidly strengthening military, its long-term ambition is global hegemony. Russia doesn't even dream about that anymore.

[NSXCIGAR]

57 minutes ago, MrBirdman said:

Kiev wants to join NATO, but the US and especially the Europeans are now wary of further inflaming the situation.

I see. It seems more and more apparent that the west wants nothing to do with Ukraine. And according to @Trapper99 NATO is off the table for nations in conflict.

So it looks like Russia is probably going in and going in far enough to destabilize and eventually control the government. Russia isn't getting kicked out of SWIFT. I guess it'll just be economic sanctions that really don't affect Russia that much. 

[Fuzz AI]

This all just makes me think of....

Even whoever is running the Ukraine Twitter account thinks the same...

[MrBirdman]

6 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I see. It seems more and more apparent that the west wants nothing to do with Ukraine. And according to @Trapper99 NATO is off the table for nations in conflict.

Yes

6 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Russia isn't getting kicked out of SWIFT. I guess it'll just be economic sanctions that really don't affect Russia that much. 

I agree on SWIFT; it’s unclear how the sanctions situation will play out. Putin is clearly gambling that they won’t have the stomach for anything too painful for too long. I am skeptical too, but we’ll see. 

[Meklown]

Only reason why the US actually cares about Ukraine is because they need to protect Hunter's business interests 

[MrBirdman]

19 minutes ago, Meklown said:

Only reason why the US actually cares about Ukraine is because they need to protect Hunter's business interests