A question on Electrics and Hybrids

[Bijan]

@Markspring1978

Your questioning the energy source required for electric vehicles is what made me reply. This is like someone saying they want to go on a diet, and then telling them that's all well and good but how will they be able to afford to buy less food. Charging batteries, discharging batteries and converting electricity to motion are all much more efficient compared to converting gasoline to motion. Electric cars have huge and heavy batteries because batteries are terrible at storing energy compared to gasoline (in terms of density) not because electric vehicles require lots of energy.

Edit: The EPA publishes MPGe (mile per gallon equivalent) for electric vehicles as well as wh/mile efficiency. The Tesla model 3 is 134mpge. The best gas-only car is 40mpg and the best hybrid 60mpg. So this particular electric vehicle is 3 times more efficient than any gas-only car and twice as efficient as any hybrid.

Edit 2: The average mpg fleetwide in the us is about 25 or 26mpg. And I'd say the average EV efficiency is maybe 100mpge. So 4x more efficient on average though maybe not entirely fair with all the trucks and large SUVs around. The worst MPGe ever for an electic was 28mpge for a 1998 model Chevy s10 pickup. So the worst ever from 20 years ago is better than the average gas car today.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/PowerSearch.do?action=noform&path=1&year1=1984&year2=2021&vtype=Electric&pageno=5&rowLimit=50&sortBy=Comb&tabView=0

I assumed your points about lithium mining and disposal were based on that level of reasoning. I am not an expert in lithium mining, nor lithium recycling or disposal. I have not done the research. If you have I am sorry.

For the sake of argument let's look at the mining required for an electric car. Mine has roughly 150lbs of lithium 150lbs of graphite and 30lbs of cobalt (in a 1000 lb battery). So let's say 400 lbs of these materials. Let's say the car lasts 10 years and then goes directly to the dump. That's 400 lbs of these materials. Meanwhile if I had a gas car I'd probably go through 10,000 gallons of gasoline in ten years. Is the environmental impact of mining and burying 400 lbs of lithium graphite and cobalt combined, worse than that of mining/drilling and then burning 63,000 lbs of gasoline (6.3lbs per gallon)?

[PigFish]

3 hours ago, Hookmaker said:

@pigfish I don’t disagree with you at all.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

With that, I raise my glass!!! -LOL

Many, many things are political these days. That does not really mean that level headed people cannot talk about facts.

Tariffing the competition is indirect subsidy. This drives the price of competitive products higher and allows the producer of the protected class material to be marked up, or priced as required while too expensive to really be market driven.

Norway is about the size of the state (in the US) as New Mexico. My last job had me doing some commuting that was 500 statue miles one way. Condensed states, small countries and metro areas are likely ideal for EVs, if they can manage to keep the lights on at night while charging them.

Then there is air travel, national defense, turbine tanks and ships, 100,000HP oil driven freighters... fertilizers, chemical agents, insecticides, paints, plastics and the rest.

As the tech 'gets there' the 'there' will be a larger market share for EVs. I love competition... Fair competition that is, and bringing better products to market is in my mind a good thing.

Again, I am not looking to pick a fight with anyone but I don't really buy the pollution argument, or the energy saving argument either. I think there are large numbers of 'facts' indicating that as long as fossil fuels generate electrical power, considering generation and transmission losses, rare earth material mining and the rest... I just don't see it.

That does not mean (again) that these vehicles don't have a place and that I look down on ownership. I just don't believe they are a real viable alternate to the ICE. I won't prognostic on ever... I won't live for-ever!

Lastly there is again the argument of government. The real money maker in the oil and gas industry is government. With taxes (at the pump, governments are making 30% the market rate (in the states, depending on state and local taxes). The producer/refiner makes about 0.03 USD a gallon.

Government does not like losing revenue. Gas is here to stay, unless the EV user... what is the term, pays his fair share... ! That would skyrocket the cost of the EV. That is another indirect subsidy.

Governments love these grand green ideals. That is until it cuts into the revenue stream. Then the real hawks come out. We shall see!

Follow the money I say. That brings me full circle.

We have a company that would not have ever made it without government assistance. It is not just on the map. The guy who runs it is the world richest man. There is a connection. The connection is always, follow the money!

Speaking of money and government boondoggles, whatever happened to Fisker's Delaware plant??? -LOL

 

Cheers all! -Piggy

[Bijan]

5 hours ago, PigFish said:

Again, I am not looking to pick a fight with anyone but I don't really buy the pollution argument, or the energy saving argument either. I think there are large numbers of 'facts' indicating that as long as fossil fuels generate electrical power, considering generation and transmission losses, rare earth material mining and the rest... I just don't see it.

I don't disagree with your statement "as long as fossil fuels generate electrical power". I agree with it. I was arguing what I did to show that it's not worse than gas even in worst case grid locales. But the trend is for the share of fossil fuels to fall, especially coal. As that happens the balance shifts. If we'd always be at 100% coal forever then it's probably not a worthwhile exercise.

Edit: do we really want to replace the entire fleet of cars at great expense when with 100% coal power generation it'll take maybe 7 years to break even carbon emissions wise on an electric car?

Where I'm at in Ontario we're a 90% carbon free electric grid (mostly nuclear, some hydro, more and more renewables some natural gas, no coal).

 

5 hours ago, PigFish said:

Government does not like losing revenue. Gas is here to stay, unless the EV user... what is the term, pays his fair share... ! That would skyrocket the cost of the EV. That is another indirect subsidy.

Many states are raising EV annual car registration rates to make up for loss of gas revenue. I don't think any have gone to 30% of gas prices replacement level yet but I don't follow the exact details.

In my case with about 50k miles driven I have avoided buying between $6,000 and $7,500 worth of gas. 30% of that would be about $2,000 to $2,250 over 2.5 years of ownership if I paid my fair share. Not quite skyrocketing costs. (30% roughly matches our tax rate for gas here though sales tax of 13% on top but that applies to almost everything...).

[Bijan]

To look at the greening of the grid:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37034

from 2007 to 2017 we went from 28 states having coal be the biggest source of electricity, to 18 states

https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/state-electricity-generation-fuel-shares

Furthermore if we look at states currently with 50%+ coal (rather than biggest source) we have the following 9 states:

Indiana 56.7

Kentucky 72.7

Missouri 72.8

Montana 53.9

Nebraska 54.7

North Dakota 61.9

Utah 64.4

West Virginia 91.0

Wyoming 84.3

I believe Wyoming for instance went from 96% coal in 2000, to current figure with 9% wind now.

Edit: Perhaps more relevant states with 50%+ from "carbon-less" sources (Nuclear, Hydro, Geothermal, Solar and Wind):

The footnote indicates that Iowa's only nuclear powerplant retired prematurely now, so they're probably off the list. But that's still 13 states representing 31.8% of US population.

[MPS]

Just ordered the new Mustang Mach E. The $7500 federal tax credit made it a very attractive deal. I've driven Hybrids for the past 12 years as it gets me free tolls to work saving me tons of $$$$. Without all these incentives I wouldn't drive a hybrid or electric. 

 

[BellevilleMXZ]

As with lovethehaze, I also work in the industry. EVs either full or hybrid, are great for people that can afford to buy new and keep for max 4 or 5 years. Two big things that keep them from going big IMO is upfront cost(with or without tax incentives) , and the effect to the grid, if all of a sudden everyone starts charging their cars. There are already many brownouts on really hot/cold days now.....now start plugging in millions of cars? Sure in big cites maybe its an easier fix, but there is a TON of rural area out there that would be very cost prohibitive to upgrade. 

Back to the cost, Ok, tesla folks say, ok wellI haven't spent any money on maintenance .....but a tesla isnt a "mainstream" car, they are $$$$$ to most normal folk.Even a 3 is $$$ compared to the same size ICE car. Take a "normal" hybrid. Prius,Volt etc These are not maint. free. And the big thing "I" see, is after these are out of warranty(not battery) the repair costs are VERY expensive, and not something just any shop can do. I have seen may horror stories of people buying 3 or 4 year old ones, and facing HUGE repair bills. Battery warranties are good, but the rest of the drivetrain is average. These are extremely complex and costly to fix. I'm not anti hybrid, but again, people don't know what they are getting into.  IMO they are only good for people that can afford to drive newer cars. and that's not most of the population. I see all the time people not being being able to afford fixing regular cars. trading them in, and rolling the loss into new stuff never mind a big $$$ hybrid repair. 

Would I buy a hybrid?? Maybe....a year old or so. But not full electric. No way am I going to have to be stuck looking for a charging station on long trips. Not chance will I be tied to a cord. 

[Bijan]

@BellevilleMXZ I feel like I'm in an experiment waiting to test your expectations of repair bills. I have a model 3 that will be out of warranty soon due to mileage (would have been a while ago if not for covid) and my wife has a 2016 kia soul EV out of general warranty but with a bit left on battery/drivetrain warranty (the battery was replaced just before we took ownership).

[PigFish]

... while discussing the market viability of EVs I appeared to have missed this one:

https://kyma.com/cnn-business-consumer/2021/02/01/teslas-dirty-little-secret-its-net-profit-doesnt-come-from-selling-cars/

Direct wealth transfer payments from those making money to those that don't. But what is a little corporate socialism between friends??? Makes me wonder how companies that are suffering like the idea of writing checks to those that are not? 

Cheers! -Piggy

[Bijan]

5 minutes ago, PigFish said:

... while discussing the market viability of EVs I appeared to have missed this one:

https://kyma.com/cnn-business-consumer/2021/02/01/teslas-dirty-little-secret-its-net-profit-doesnt-come-from-selling-cars/

Direct wealth transfer payments from those making money to those that don't. But what is a little corporate socialism between friends??? Makes me wonder how companies that are suffering like the idea of writing checks to those that are not? 

Cheers! -Piggy

It's better or worse than that depending on your viewpoint. This past quarter Tesla would have been profitable without the regulatory credits if it wasn't for an extremely large bonus to Elon Musk due to the stock price being at a certain high level for a certain period of time. So it's a wealth transfer from those companies to Musk personally practically.

But I think those companies are glad to do it (obviously they'd be happier not to pay, but that's not the way things are going). They'd rather buy the credits. Cheaper than making and selling the electric cars themselves. They definitely are happier with this most likely than the next logical step which is to have quotas and/or phase out gas/diesel cars.

[PigFish]

Sir, we are here to remove a toe or your whole foot. Which would you prefer?

I don't think 'happy' factors into it...! MHO...