Further analysis of the Double Coronas and the Market

[PigFish]

I thought that I might open the door a little on some thoughts about the decline of DC smoking as mentioned in a thread started by Rob. I started this thread more to foster speculative talk as to why the vitola has declining sales verses what might be done to increase interest. I think much has been mentioned already but I wanted to emphasize a couple of my thoughts on this thread.

H SA consistently ignores the concept of market saturation and value! I know this is a bold statement, one I never mention -LOL. They are constantly on the hunt for a party to blame, namely a certain vitola, which is produced in numbers exceeding the current market's interest. Where have the DC sales gone and why; lets speculate?

There was a time when you wanted a large ring Habanos you were forced into larger format cigars. The robusto and hermosos #4 were the choices for compromise sizes as size pertains to length verses girth. With the birth of new smaller length large ring cigars the consumer was allowed to pick a larger ring cigar at a lower cost to those of the DC. It appears that the consumer has taken that path for the larger ring cigar over that of the double coronas. Now granted, I chose my hot button here, cost and value, as a reason to base my argument. There are likely many compelling reasons and I will grant that. If we did a study of the Rob's thread you will see a number of repeating objections to DC's and in those objections you will likely find the clues to the major reasons.

Value; value is one important reason. If the cigar does not perform commensurate to its cost, its value suffers and the consumer hesitates to buy them. DC's have declined in taste performance and several have made that note about them including me. Value, as derived from taste and cost, can be interpreted as the cause and to be the blame for what has been posted about them with the possible exception of the time to consume them. Let me explain.

Lets look at the 10x packaging concept. Certainly it is easier to afford 10 cigars at say $15/stick than it is to afford 50 cigars at $15/stick. But, is that all there is to the equation? I think not. Most of us.... knowing that they are buying exceptional cigars are willing to store and consume cigar products over years. Most cabinet cigar buyers have historically bought these products in groups of 25 and 50 so there needs to be a reason, perhaps one or more beyond the current trend, that causes them to not buy them today. In my case, I don't want to be stuck with 50 huge, tasteless, expensive cigars! It has happened too often. If the cigars are of the highest quality, of known exceptional taste performance I will buy them again. Not in large numbers (numbers of cabs) as I don't prefer larger cigars, but I would purchase them once again, regularly. It is the cigars' performance itself that has taken me away from these cigars, not the size per say. I relate the size to poor performance. I think that this is also an underlying reason for many others. The fact is many of us, even those such as myself who predominantly enjoy smaller cigars, do have the occasion to enjoy a larger format cigar from time to time. These occasions, albeit rare, do still exist in my life and in the lives of many other cigar smokers. We (the cabinet buyers) simply don't gravitate to the DC format now because they are not worth the risk; their value has declined. The risk is correspondingly smaller for lesser numbers of cigars making singles and smaller packaging options a lesser risk, but it does not cure the problem of insipid cigars, nor does it solve the long term value problem.

Lets talk a minute about the large ring format smoker. I know little about them as I am not one of them; I am here to speculate only. Well, they may very well be saying the same thing (making the value argument) as well along with the market saturation argument. I will use this to bolster a further point about cigar production and market saturation as a whole. These folks are now being satisfied with larger ring, smaller length cigars. They have simply moved formats (vitolas) for numerous reasons... but value, as it is comprised of taste and price, has got to be the major factor.

Lastly the point about market saturation. You can't sell more cigars than the market will bear! It is that simple. H SA, in their divine wisdom, thinking that they have discovered the holy grail in the short 50 ring cigar, has only made gains in sales here at the cost of other cigars. In this case, unlike the case used against me in my argument for smaller cigars, may have cost them considerably. How so? Well the DC at its corresponding retail cost has likely been a profit leader in the past. You see they have not sold more cigars in total by generating these new vitolas or simply replaced small ring sales with larger ring cigars as may have been the plan. According to Robs thread with DC sales on the decline, it might be a fair argument to say that in some cases it has actually cost them profits from other large ring cigars like the DC. Large cigars then are not really dipping into the small ring market; most of us as small ring cigar enthusiasts reject them, but they have now shown to affect the large ring existing established, higher profit cigar market. They are not really then opening up new markets with these shorter, fatter cigars. They are simply sacrificing one share of the market for another.

It was all well and good for some arguing economics and ROI when in came to sacrificing my favorite cigars. Not that I am saying that any of my opposing opinionated friends wish to see my favorite cigars get cancelled. But now it might appear that this panacea, this larger ring short cigar, is not signifying the dawn of the second coming of the cigar Christ! It may just be at a cost greater than the lowly coronas and the lonsdale, but the grim reaper to many a classic cigar, including the double coronas.

Thanks for reading. - Piggy

[aavkk]

Piggy, I agree with you to some extent. The major reason I have never bought a box of DC's is not value driven, its entertainment driven. I was at a cigar lounge earlier this week and decided instead of one large DC I would smoke 2 different and interesting cigars. This is much more interesting to me. I have had some excellent RA Gigantes before but to me its less interesting than a comparison between 2 different cabs of RASS.

When I am considering what to smoke I never start with what ring gauge I want. Its ususally based on what I am eating or drinking, how much time I have, where and who will I be with, what kind of mood am I in.

Putting them in 10 counts doesnt encourage a purchase from me at all, in fact I much prefer to buy in cabs even if it costs more than 2 dress boxes. A major reason why I love this hobby is the enjoyment I get from following the development and evolution of a box of cigars and the changes they go through. I love that in 10 years I will be smoking from the same cab of x cigars and will be able to remember what they tasted like young.

For me its that they are just not as interesting as smaller RG cigars of the same length and/or 2 different cigars. While I have had a handful of excellent DC's most have left me very bored at some point throughout the smoke.

[bassman]

A good DC should not be boring, as the flavor will change thoughout the length of the smoke. The problem is there are not enough GOOD DCs being currently produced.

[Shelby07]

I think you need to consider not only how many cabs are purchased, but also how long will they be in someone's humidor. Before the smoking bans (I was a cigarette smoker, didn't smoke cigars back then but I knew several people who did) I could imagine that it was easy to light up a cigar that would take a couple of hours to smoke without worrying about whether you would be remaining in the smoking area for the entire time. But with the smoking bans it becomes a great consideration. When I started work in 1970 someone could light a cigar at 9AM and smoke it up until lunch time, then light another one after lunch and smoke it until quitting time. Chances were much greater that they would have picked a cigar that lasted a couple of hours plus. Now we have 45 minutes at lunch to smoke a cigar, and God forbid many of us try to light a cigar up in our own homes. That alone would certainly cut down on the number of DC's or Churchills someone would pick out of their stash. People aren't running out as quickly so they aren't replenishing their stash as often, hence the demand for large cigars is in the mud compared to the past.

I think it has very little to do with the quality of the cigars. Taste is subjective, so making an argument on what our own personal preferences are can never be definitive. I think if smoking wasn't so despised by the masses there would be a lot more cigar sales in all sizes, and the larger sizes would be much more popular. The current situation simply makes larger cigars impractical.

[MontrealRon]

I think you need to consider not only how many cabs are purchased, but also how long will they be in someone's humidor. Before the smoking bans (I was a cigarette smoker, didn't smoke cigars back then but I knew several people who did) I could imagine that it was easy to light up a cigar that would take a couple of hours to smoke without worrying about whether you would be remaining in the smoking area for the entire time. But with the smoking bans it becomes a great consideration. When I started work in 1970 someone could light a cigar at 9AM and smoke it up until lunch time, then light another one after lunch and smoke it until quitting time. Chances were much greater that they would have picked a cigar that lasted a couple of hours plus. Now we have 45 minutes at lunch to smoke a cigar, and God forbid many of us try to light a cigar up in our own homes. That alone would certainly cut down on the number of DC's or Churchills someone would pick out of their stash. People aren't running out as quickly so they aren't replenishing their stash as often, hence the demand for large cigars is in the mud compared to the past.

I think it has very little to do with the quality of the cigars. Taste is subjective, so making an argument on what our own personal preferences are can never be definitive. I think if smoking wasn't so despised by the masses there would be a lot more cigar sales in all sizes, and the larger sizes would be much more popular. The current situation simply makes larger cigars impractical.

Exactly!

In our harried lives, and "politically correct" world, there if little space left for the large formats.

A box of Punch DC's from 2001, bought when new, is still 2/3 full - and they are great smokes!

It's just that the occasion to smoke one is rare.

A matched pair of Nov. '04 Lusis and Gigantes, are missing maybe 5 smokes between them.

The stars never seem to be in the right place, at the right time, and for long enough.

On the upside, I least I won't be running out of DC's for a long time.

[Justin01]

I, being a relatively young guy at 23, have never even seen someone smoking a DC, let alone smoke one myself. I think Shelby hit the nail on the head, even if performance was not an issue the time and place to smoke a DC is rare. Most people have a great deal going on, as well as having a smoke free home, cannot be confined to the patio for upwards of a few hours. Even if I was to spend an entire sunday smoking cigars I would probably smoke a PC then go back in the house to take care of something then out for another smoke and maybe another errand before a final smoke.

However the fabled DC stars have lined up with me this weekend! I have committed to spending the weekend in solitude with the GF in her parents vacation home in Canada's finest wine producing area, Niagra. With all this talk of the DC I paid a visit to the local B&M(sorry Rob) and picked up a Partagas Lusi from 08 I believe. I picked up a DC because her step father is a big cigar smoker and this home is a cigar friendly dwelling, and boy is it ever getting cold in a hurry. This is one of those rare opportunities where I will have nothing to do but hangout on a nice couch and smoke away without a care in the world. So for my own enjoyment this weekend I have thrown a RASS, MAG50, Upmann MF and the Lusi into drybox for the weekend away.

Hurrah DC!

[anacostiakat]

As having been a committed DC/Churchill smoker I can say that the ten count argument doesnt seem to hold water for me. As some of the DC's have 15 count boxes available now. Maybe not wooden SLB but still available.

The argument about not having a place to smoke them doesnt affect me much as I smoke at home. No problem there. But I realize I am in the minority. But home patio or garage smoking is still an option to many depending on weather.

Now the issue of time is valid for many and I recognize this one.

I do believe that the point made about rather smoking two different cigars is more interesting than smoking one DC has merit for me and I do find myself falling in this category. This is due to the underwelming blending for DC's in my opinion.

So I guess what I am trying to say is that the market moving to larger ring short cigars makes sense to me. At the expense of DC's and Churchills I mean. Even if I dont like it.

You are just pushing the sales from one area to another. Now does this generate more income? I would think not but I don't know that. Although logic seems to indicate only that if you use a base of $15 bucks for a DC then you need two cigars of a cost less than that to lose money. Obviously.

I will buy more of them when they taste better. Simple as that for me. I have found joy in smaller ring cigars and will buy them regulary and smoke them regularly.

The Kat

[Tampa1257]

Piggy, Are you my alter-ego?

I could not have expressed your thoughts any better and I agree with them.

Robing Peter to pay for Paul, from DC's to Edmundos.

Only so much time to smoke a DC and with the current DC's being lackluster in taste, the "Value" of the DC is not there for the consumer. Expendable funds are getting tighter and the risk of smoking a cigar that is not going to deliver has also become a big factor in the decision making process of what to buy.

[Kangaroo495]

I live in a country where there are no smoke bans anywhere. Plus I freely smoke at home - in bed, on the couch, in the kitchen, in the toilet...

Therefore, I have all the time in the world to smoke whatever format of cigar I want. Whether I be at home on a Monday night or at a restaurant on Saturday.

I've smoked my way through many, many DCs over the last year or so. Pretty much tried all there is to offer actually. Now, I will simply not purchase them (except for the occasional Lusi).

This is because, the "value" is too low, and the purchase is too much of a risk. If I've been disappointed by a cigar twice, I will most likely never buy it again (or it'll take me a good couple of years to forgive the cigar). I've been disappointed by the VRDA, Punch, SLR, and the Hoyo - all twice. I've been disappointed by the Lusi once out of 6-7 times. Haven't smoked the RA.

And when I'm disappointed by a cigar, I can usually tell by the end of the first third or the halfway mark. The problem with DCs is, that if you're disappointed - then you're stuck with the damn thing for another hour and a half! I'm not the kind of person who throws things away (drink, food, cigars - it's all the same). And I'm more or less an optimist. So I give all cigars I smoke their due attention. But if I've put 2 hours of effort into something, I want to get something back. The time it takes to smoke the DC simply adds to the feeling of disappointment because of the time you put in.

On the other hand, I would have no problem smoking them every day if they were all spectacular.

In summary - it seems you've all got valid points!

-Smoking ban

-Value

-Risk

-Time

Selling them in 10s will do nothing. As one of the members above said - half of the enjoyment is watching them evolve over a long period. For this, 10 boxes are not enough, and people, in general, do not have a problem with buying a box of 25.... That is - a box of 25 GOOD cigars.

[tigger]

I do believe that the point made about rather smoking two different cigars is more interesting than smoking one DC has merit for me and I do find myself falling in this category. This is due to the underwelming blending for DC's in my opinion.

So I guess what I am trying to say is that the market moving to larger ring short cigars makes sense to me. At the expense of DC's and Churchills I mean. Even if I dont like it.

You are just pushing the sales from one area to another. Now does this generate more income? I would think not but I don't know that. Although logic seems to indicate only that if you use a base of $15 bucks for a DC then you need two cigars of a cost less than that to lose money. Obviously.

I will buy more of them when they taste better. Simple as that for me. I have found joy in smaller ring cigars and will buy them regulary and smoke them regularly.

The Kat

A good helping of truth here, I think.

The only thing I'll add is that for me, there's a risk/reward element. If I'm going to commit 2 hours and 10+ dollars to a cigar, I want to be reasonably sure that I'll feel that the experience was worth the money, and more importantly, the time I ponied up.

I've smoked two Prominentes this year that I can recall - the SLR DC from the "5 year test" in April, and an '05 RAG last night thinking I might review it in light of all of the DC talk around here this week. Neither made me want to commit more resources to the vitola.

[Colt45]

With many here feeling that generally DCs are not what they once were, my question is what happened?

Intentional blend changes? Use of non "top tier" tobacco? Simply relegated to second class or lower?

[thechenman]

I think you need to consider not only how many cabs are purchased, but also how long will they be in someone's humidor. Before the smoking bans (I was a cigarette smoker, didn't smoke cigars back then but I knew several people who did) I could imagine that it was easy to light up a cigar that would take a couple of hours to smoke without worrying about whether you would be remaining in the smoking area for the entire time. But with the smoking bans it becomes a great consideration. When I started work in 1970 someone could light a cigar at 9AM and smoke it up until lunch time, then light another one after lunch and smoke it until quitting time. Chances were much greater that they would have picked a cigar that lasted a couple of hours plus. Now we have 45 minutes at lunch to smoke a cigar, and God forbid many of us try to light a cigar up in our own homes. That alone would certainly cut down on the number of DC's or Churchills someone would pick out of their stash. People aren't running out as quickly so they aren't replenishing their stash as often, hence the demand for large cigars is in the mud compared to the past.

I think it has very little to do with the quality of the cigars. Taste is subjective, so making an argument on what our own personal preferences are can never be definitive. I think if smoking wasn't so despised by the masses there would be a lot more cigar sales in all sizes, and the larger sizes would be much more popular. The current situation simply makes larger cigars impractical.

Shelby I abscribe to your line of thinking as well.