Putting Habanos into perspective.

[El Presidente]

in 2025, 429.8 million premium cigars were imported into the United States. 

Nicaragua accounted for 60%

Dominican Republic 28%, Honduras 11%, Daylight others.  https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/premium-cigar-imports-flat-for-2025

2025 Tabacuba Production estimated at 40-50 Million premium cigars total 

Rocky Patel makes 25 million premium cigars alone.  

Food for thought 

[BrightonCorgi]

So, you're saying that the US should sole and exclusive access to all Tabacuba production?  Good thought!

[gormag38]

If Habanos ever became 'legal' in the US it seems unlikely that they would put a dent into what's 'displayed' or for sale at any B&Ms. I wonder how many cigars they were producing pre COVID? Do we think those numbers are even obtainable anymore? 

[El Presidente]

6 minutes ago, gormag38 said:

If Habanos ever became 'legal' in the US it seems unlikely that they would put a dent into what's 'displayed' or for sale at any B&Ms. I wonder how many cigars they were producing pre COVID? Do we think those numbers are even obtainable anymore? 

Safe to assume 70 million premium cigars 2019. Some say 80 million, some 60 million. No official numbers were released (to my knowledge). 

Numbers are certainly obtainable again. It would take hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars in pre-industry and factory investment. 

[NYGuido]

The Lizards had a great discussion on possible Habanos US distribution on the pod this week, and I think the idea that there would maybe be LCDHs in major cities is the way it would go.

That aside, these numbers are staggering. I cannot believe the relatively tiny number of smokes Cuba is producing when compared to just the US consumption. Damn!

[Skm672]

I think an interesting perspective would be comparing production by the value the cigars are sold for. I wonder how many of the 500 million cigars are more on the cheaper side when you compare to Habanos where at least the majority is focused on their premium segment.

[chasy]

The US doing what the US does best…consume!

[PuroDiario]

All paths lead to buy more Cohiba now, it may be still cheap after all…

[Duxnutz]

However hard it may be to believe, the cigar industry in the US is consumed most often by working/middle class people. For Cubans to be successful in the States they would need to compete on price. There would be few average people buying $40-50 cigars. 

[BrightonCorgi]

If Cuba were to open up on imports, I'd rather buy Clear Havana's instead. We could roll better cigars with greater consistency. Let us buy the tobacco and call it a day. 

[Çnote]

53 minutes ago, BrightonCorgi said:

If Cuba were to open up on imports, I'd rather buy Clear Havana's instead. We could roll better cigars with greater consistency. Let us buy the tobacco and call it a day. 

A Central American wrapped Cuban filler stick would alleviate wrapper shortages for certain.

1 hour ago, Duxnutz said:

There would be few average people buying $40-50 cigars. 

There are lots of +$40 cigars purchased in the US market. 

8 hours ago, NYGuido said:

I think the idea that there would maybe be LCDHs in major cities is the way it would go.

My exact thoughts as well. I have the crazy idea that these stores are already doing business as well.

[ATGroom]

9 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Safe to assume 70 million premium cigars 2019. Some say 80 million, some 60 million. No official numbers were released (to my knowledge). 

Numbers are certainly obtainable again. It would take hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars in pre-industry and factory investment. 

These Cuban production numbers are unofficial but in my view accurate -

2018-19: 98m per year

2020-2023: 57-63m per year

2024: 45m

2025: 72m

These are the numbers for what Cuba calls "premium", which is everything Habanos produces, from Cohiba to Jose Piedra. It is not including the machine-mades, Guantanamera, Shorts, Puritos etc, and not including domestic peso cigars, farm rolls, fakes etc.

No idea what CA's definition of "premium" is, but given how high the number is, for me it has to include stuff which would be comparable to Cuba's machine-mades and handmade non-premiums.

[Fugu]

12 hours ago, El Presidente said:

2025 Tabacuba Production estimated at 40-50 Million premium cigars total

 

3 hours ago, ATGroom said:

2025: 72m

You guys believe these numbers to be sound? Appear quite high to me, given even in half-normal years they struggled to pump out more than 70-80 m.

[ATGroom]

6 hours ago, Fugu said:

You guys believe these numbers to be sound?

I have some numbers compiled by myself from some public and some non-public data. I don't want to be more specific than that, so if you want to say "Groom made it up, his numbers are garbage" then feel free.😁 I think they are pretty good. Where they are inaccurate I believe it would be mostly bleeding one year into another, ie, maybe 2025 was only 67m but 2024 was 50m.

Rob's numbers I guess are from the "experts say" type stuff in cigar media and industry gossip.

6 hours ago, Fugu said:

even in half-normal years they struggled to pump out more than 70-80 m.

My data shows between 90-120m every year 2010-2019, average 108m.

Only for rich guys with $8, but I wrote a related article on this subject on my Substack a few weeks ago https://cubancigarwebsite.substack.com/p/the-rarest-cuban-cigars-of-2025

[NYGuido]

5 hours ago, ATGroom said:

Only for rich guys with $8, but I wrote a related article on this subject on my Substack a few weeks ago https://cubancigarwebsite.substack.com/p/the-rarest-cuban-cigars-of-2025

I didn’t know you had a substack! Subscribed. 

[El Presidente]

18 hours ago, ATGroom said:

2025

2025: 72m

I don't think there is any way they made 72 million cigars in 2025. Maybe boxes for 72 million cigars, but physical cigars .....highly unlikely🤔

[ATGroom]

1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

I don't think there is any way they made 72 million cigars in 2025 

There are some well stocked humidors in Cambodia 😜

[Justins123]

It’s been discussed many times before, but it makes you wonder at the height (right before Covid?) what percent of Cuban cigars made their way to the United States.

[Fugu]

13 hours ago, ATGroom said:

if you want to say "Groom made it up, his numbers are garbage" then feel free.😁

Couldn’t be further from my intentions, Alex. 😂

But I find your numbers (except 2024) appear quite high an estimate.

Or perhaps ‘technically’ not 100% comparable to what HSA-based sources have reported (historically).

[ha_banos]

Stranger things have happened than these numbers. With the value to Habanos and beneficiaries, the sheer effort and pressure likely pressed onto those producing. It wouldn't be a complete surprise those figures.

 

[ha_banos]

Our biggest retailer over here has just put out a video about supply problems.

"Why Cuban Cigars Are Disappearing in the UK (What You Need To Know)"

'Cuban cigars are becoming increasingly difficult to find worldwide. In this video, we explain what’s driving the shortage - from reduced production in Cuba to rising global demand and shifting market strategy.'

I guess that means H&F are emptying out. So only house reserva will be dripping out at exorbitant pricing I expect. 

[Çnote]

3 hours ago, ha_banos said:

 Our biggest retailer over here has just put out a video about supply problems.

"Why Cuban Cigars Are Disappearing in the UK (What You Need To Know)"

'Cuban cigars are becoming increasingly difficult to find worldwide. In this video, we explain what’s driving the shortage - from reduced production in Cuba to rising global demand and shifting market strategy.'

I guess that means H&F are emptying out. So only house reserva will be dripping out at exorbitant pricing I expect.  

It's hard to stay in business with nothing to sell.

[ha_banos]

I checked with the boss if this was ok to post.

[LordAnubis]

I stopped reading when Rocky Patel and premium was in the same sentence. 😁

Would be interesting to know what’s the price point of these premium cigars. As mentioned already, I would think it’s all in the average worker lower price range but some people here say otherwise which is interesting. 

[zacca]

On 4/17/2026 at 1:06 PM, Duxnutz said:

However hard it may be to believe, the cigar industry in the US is consumed most often by working/middle class people. For Cubans to be successful in the States they would need to compete on price. There would be few average people buying $40-50 cigars. 

I have a different take here. If they were an unknown commodity, sure they’d have to compete on price to get shelf space. But every single person who smoked those 400M sticks has heard the term “Cuban cigar”. And lots of Americans who’ve never smoked a cigar in their life are familiar with the term as well. So they don’t need to compete on anything because there will be an absolutely massive pent up demand. So much so that with the relatively low supply, if things do open up, prices will go parabolic. I don’t really see this happening any time soon though. And if it does, I’d guess Habanos would cease to exist, so it’s anybody’s guess what distribution would even look like.