Cuba announcing no aviation fuel available

[JohnnyO]

3 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Rumour was they discussed cancelling it last week but had no solution to the mechanics of refunding tickets. 

Refunds? We don't have no stinking refunds! That word does not exist in the communist dictionary. Besides, how are you going to sell the $10 million humidor? C'mon Prez, stop playing with us. John

[Marco_011t556]

Well, they can still host the festival. But if you are the guest, are you brave enough to go? What if there's no fuel for the plane to return? Lol

P.S. They will charge you for a 'no show' penalty! 

[El Presidente]

7 hours ago, JohnnyO said:

Refunds? We don't have no stinking refunds! That word does not exist in the communist dictionary. Besides, how are you going to sell the $10 million humidor? C'mon Prez, stop playing with us. John

...Yes, better to reschedule ....and if people cannot make it, well, tough titty. 

I would just plough ahead. It is the Cuban way. 

[zacca]

16 hours ago, JohnnyO said:

Russia has told their people to get out. Do they know something we don't?

Pretty serious move for a them with a govt they are friendly with. To me it suggests they expect conditions to worsen and believe infrastructure stability is in question. Countries are usually willing to leave nationals in uncomfortable situations if they believe the host state is stable enough. So an evacuation advisory here is them saying “don’t be here if this goes sideways". I don’t think this means Russia is abandoning Cuba though. They’ll still help at the state level if it serves their geopolitical interests. I think the next 60-120 days matter a lot. 

Hoping for the best for you down there. Hang tight and do what you need to do. 

[NYGuido]

14 hours ago, zacca said:

Pretty serious move for a them with a govt they are friendly with. To me it suggests they expect conditions to worsen and believe infrastructure stability is in question. Countries are usually willing to leave nationals in uncomfortable situations if they believe the host state is stable enough. So an evacuation advisory here is them saying “don’t be here if this goes sideways". I don’t think this means Russia is abandoning Cuba though. They’ll still help at the state level if it serves their geopolitical interests. I think the next 60-120 days matter a lot. 

Hoping for the best for you down there. Hang tight and do what you need to do. 

Yeah. That Russia, a staunch ally, is getting its people out is the reddest of flags to my eye. They haven’t recalled diplomats yet, which is the sole positive sign. 

[Salomones]

The German Foreign Office is now advising against travel to Cuba. Flights from Germany to Cuba are cancelled until March.

[BrightonCorgi]

No way should they cancel the Festival. That's admitting defeat and there's probably no money to pay people back. 

[Puros Y Vino]

Just saw a rundown of effects in a reddit post of what's going on in Havana source post user cocodrool

- all public transport has been suspended, meaning no movement of workers (including cigar rollers who get paid $5 a month to sit at home and do nothing); Partagas has 234 benches and only 86 rollers!

- all universities have closed with classes going online … except there is no electricity and, thus, no WiFi.

- all sports, cultural and musical events have been cancelled - and, certainly, the Habanos Festival will not go ahead.

- all independent shops (bars, restaurants) must close, unless they have solar panels or a generator.

- street corners are covered in mountains of rotting garbage - a breeding ground for disease.

- workers in cigar factories are being asked to go out - unpaid - and clean up garbage after their shifts at the factories.

- Prado is empty; the malecon is empty

- the government has asked citizens to show up on Saturdays for military practice

On the outskirts, there are protests. Fires in the streets. The banging of pots and pans. Without gasoline - now rationed at 20 litres per person per month - society comes to a standstill. And without electricity, the entire infrastructure crumbles. Built on sand. There are hospitals with generators that can’t function, because there is no fuel, so eff you if you need dialysis. You’re dead.

[NYGuido]

2 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

Just saw a rundown of effects in a reddit post of what's going on in Havana source post user cocodrool

- all public transport has been suspended, meaning no movement of workers (including cigar rollers who get paid $5 a month to sit at home and do nothing); Partagas has 234 benches and only 86 rollers!

- all universities have closed with classes going online … except there is no electricity and, thus, no WiFi.

- all sports, cultural and musical events have been cancelled - and, certainly, the Habanos Festival will not go ahead.

- all independent shops (bars, restaurants) must close, unless they have solar panels or a generator.

- street corners are covered in mountains of rotting garbage - a breeding ground for disease.

- workers in cigar factories are being asked to go out - unpaid - and clean up garbage after their shifts at the factories.

- Prado is empty; the malecon is empty

- the government has asked citizens to show up on Saturdays for military practice

On the outskirts, there are protests. Fires in the streets. The banging of pots and pans. Without gasoline - now rationed at 20 litres per person per month - society comes to a standstill. And without electricity, the entire infrastructure crumbles. Built on sand. There are hospitals with generators that can’t function, because there is no fuel, so eff you if you need dialysis. You’re dead.

This is absolutely terrible. Thank you for sharing this.

[JohnnyO]

2 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

Just saw a rundown of effects in a reddit post of what's going on in Havana source post user cocodrool

- all public transport has been suspended, meaning no movement of workers (including cigar rollers who get paid $5 a month to sit at home and do nothing); Partagas has 234 benches and only 86 rollers!

- all universities have closed with classes going online … except there is no electricity and, thus, no WiFi.

- all sports, cultural and musical events have been cancelled - and, certainly, the Habanos Festival will not go ahead.

- all independent shops (bars, restaurants) must close, unless they have solar panels or a generator.

- street corners are covered in mountains of rotting garbage - a breeding ground for disease.

- workers in cigar factories are being asked to go out - unpaid - and clean up garbage after their shifts at the factories.

- Prado is empty; the malecon is empty

- the government has asked citizens to show up on Saturdays for military practice

On the outskirts, there are protests. Fires in the streets. The banging of pots and pans. Without gasoline - now rationed at 20 litres per person per month - society comes to a standstill. And without electricity, the entire infrastructure crumbles. Built on sand. There are hospitals with generators that can’t function, because there is no fuel, so eff you if you need dialysis. You’re dead.

 

2 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

the Habanos Festival will not go ahead

 As of today I think the show will go on. In 10 days might be a different story.

2 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

Without gasoline - now rationed at 20 litres per person per month - society comes to a standstill. 

That is the plan, but you have to register yourself on some application and then they will notify you when its your turn. So far no one has been able to register. I think this is a "Don't call us, we'll call you" strategy.

[Puros Y Vino]

2 hours ago, JohnnyO said:

 As of today I think the show will go on. In 10 days might be a different story

That is the plan, but you have to register yourself on some application and then they will notify you when its your turn. So far no one has been able to register. I think this is a "Don't call us, we'll call you" strategy

Is their Telecom system on generator power? Once users can't charge their phones, notifications are pretty much DOA. 

[JohnnyO]

I forgot, there is no more gasoline in Cuban Pesos, its $26/20 liters. 

[sbsbsb1]

Really sad. I can't imagine how much worse it can possibly get before it gets better. Or perhaps I don't want to.

[JohnnyO]

2 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

Is their Telecom system on generator power? Once users cant charge their phones, notifications are pretty much DOA. 

If power goes out in your sector there is no phone service unless you have a simple land line. But you could have power across the street which is another sector.

[MrBirdman]

2 hours ago, sbsbsb1 said:

Really sad.  I can't imagine how much worse it can possibly get before it gets better.  Or perhaps I don't want to.

Under a 1996 US law, the administration can only offer meaningful benefits (beyond ending the oil embargo) if the Cuban regime makes multiple concessions it won’t countenance (among them the removal of the entire Castro family from power, release of all political prisoners, and “meaningful” steps towards a multi-party democracy). My understanding is that Congress must be formally notified that these conditions have been met, complicating comprehensive negotiations in secret. 

This is a game of chicken where neither side has an easy off-ramp. The question is how bad things can get before there’s some kind of break. The USCG is not equipped to deal with a potentially massive flotilla of emigres fleeing the emerging humanitarian catastrophe. I can see the regime viewing that as their only source of leverage, and maybe even quietly facilitating it to the extent they can. The Trump administration will face much more pushback from its Cuban-American base if they try to fight it with force or brutality.

I also think the CIA is at least considering training Cuban-Americans for insertion should the opportunity for an easy coup emerge. Seems like a terrible idea, but that hasn’t stopped them from trying it before. Right now the “conversations” happening are likely just back channelling to political and military leaders looking for soft spots. No idea of the odds it’ll succeed.

Maybe time for a thread for (respectful) speculation on how this plays out. The only guarantee is that things will get substantially worse before they get better.

[chris12381]

It looks like Turkish Airlines completed its 1st tech stop in Cancun yesterday. Most other airlines are using the Dominican Republic. Air France is using the Bahamas. Still waiting to see what TAAG does tomorrow. Also of note: Cubana flew an A330 from Havana to Santiago de Cuba to Madrid with no tech stop, and they’re doing it again today. Funny how “JET A-1 NOT AVBL” disappears when the state airline needs it.

There seem to be a lot of people on Cuba travel forums who think that European airlines continuing to fly is some “act of solidarity” or proof that tourism is still functioning. This is simply wish casting. There are market forces at play here. Most of these routes were never huge moneymakers to begin with. They relied heavily on package tourism, and as that dried up, you’re basically left with a few independent tourists and mostly Cubans using the flights. That’s not a strong revenue base for a widebody route from Europe. You saw several carriers leave the market or adjust their schedules in 2025 as a result of this very situation. Right now they’re papering over the problem with tech stops. But that’s not a real solution. A stop to uplift fuel mean longer block times, higher costs, more crew complexity, and lower aircraft utilization. This is on a route that was already marginal. That flips it from marginal to unprofitable pretty quickly. Airlines will work around temporary disruption and they will exit when instability becomes structural and unprofitable. I predict that we’ll see a few weeks of this service, then they’ll thin their schedules or completely cancel their routes.

The US market is different. These flights do not need tech stops. A 737 or A320 could easily operate two flights between Miami and Havana before taking any fuel so logistically they work.  But even these routes are not major profit centers. They need to be very full and collecting significant baggage fees to make the economics work. Anyone who has taken one, before or after the 2015–2017 thaw, knows the core traffic is relatives visiting family, along with a secondary informal courier economy moving goods and cash for compensation. It is not mainstream tourism. The real variable is political, not operational. Several members of Congress have already called for shutting these routes down. If "maximum pressure" expands to aviation, it would take very little to wind them down, either immediately or more likely a 30 day wind down to get people off island.

[JohnnyO]

1 hour ago, chris12381 said:

It looks like Turkish Airlines completed its 1st tech stop in Cancun yesterday. Most other airlines are using the Dominican Republic. Air France is using the Bahamas. Still waiting to see what TAAG does tomorrow. Also of note: Cubana flew an A330 from Havana to Santiago de Cuba to Madrid with no tech stop, and they’re doing it again today. Funny how “JET A-1 NOT AVBL” disappears when the state airline needs it.

There seem to be a lot of people on Cuba travel forums who think that European airlines continuing to fly is some “act of solidarity” or proof that tourism is still functioning. This is simply wish casting. There are market forces at play here. Most of these routes were never huge moneymakers to begin with. They relied heavily on package tourism, and as that dried up, you’re basically left with a few independent tourists and mostly Cubans using the flights. That’s not a strong revenue base for a widebody route from Europe. You saw several carriers leave the market or adjust their schedules in 2025 as a result of this very situation. Right now they’re papering over the problem with tech stops. But that’s not a real solution. A stop to uplift fuel mean longer block times, higher costs, more crew complexity, and lower aircraft utilization. This is on a route that was already marginal. That flips it from marginal to unprofitable pretty quickly. Airlines will work around temporary disruption and they will exit when instability becomes structural and unprofitable. I predict that we’ll see a few weeks of this service, then they’ll thin their schedules or completely cancel their routes.

The US market is different. These flights do not need tech stops. A 737 or A320 could easily operate two flights between Miami and Havana before taking any fuel so logistically they work.  But even these routes are not major profit centers. They need to be very full and collecting significant baggage fees to make the economics work. Anyone who has taken one, before or after the 2015–2017 thaw, knows the core traffic is relatives visiting family, along with a secondary informal courier economy moving goods and cash for compensation. It is not mainstream tourism. The real variable is political, not operational. Several members of Congress have already called for shutting these routes down. If "maximum pressure" expands to aviation, it would take very little to wind them down, either immediately or more likely a 30 day wind down to get people off island. 

The US market is very profitable. Agencies send their mules with 3 (70 lb) bags and those bags are being paid for. "Maximum Pressure" will do nothing to American as long as they have a contract. They've been at the Cuba game the longest and have plenty of lawyers. John

[chris12381]

@JohnnyO, baggage revenue helps. Three 70-pound bags per passenger adds up. But that alone does not make a route “very profitable.” These flights still need to be very full. Cuba is not a low-cost operating environment, and elevated airport and handling fees compared to other Caribbean airports tighten margins further.

I took a look at American’s load factors leaving Miami for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Thursday averaged 67%, Friday averaged 67%, and Saturday averaged 43%. I also checked Sunday’s returns to Miami, which averaged 58%. Those are not strong numbers.

Also, US carriers do not have some protected contract guaranteeing the right to serve Cuba. They operate under DOT authority and OFAC approval. That authority can be modified or revoked as US policy changes, just as was done in 2019. American’s lawyers can help manage compliance, but they cannot override federal authority.

[El Presidente]

I saw an instagram feed come through overnight from a Cigar Journal writer saying that he heard the Habanos Festival will be cancelled this morning (our time). 

I have seen no confirmation today. I have a busy day ahead of me but if members come across any information...post it up. 

[ATGroom]

8 hours ago, El Presidente said:

I saw an instagram feed come through overnight from a Cigar Journal writer saying that he heard the Habanos Festival will be cancelled this morning (our time). 

Have been hearing that there will be an announcement "tomorrow" from various 'well informed' sources for at least the last three days. It may be a misunderstanding between the literal translation vs Cuban colloquial usage of "mañana."

My suggestion for Habanos is -

-announce that ticket holders who don't attend the Festival will be able to take delivery of the gift bags they would have received at the events via their local distributor. I guess they have to pay whatever their local tax obligation would be. If they want to take advantage of this they need to register very quickly, ie, by the end of the weekend. (honestly, there would be a pretty significant market for 'giftbag only' Festival tickets even in a 'normal' year in Cuba). That registration process will give them the number of people that are determined to attend. My guess is 500-1000 maximum. 

-with the new numbers, move everything to smaller venues in Old Havana within walking distance of the strip of big hotels along the Prado (maybe you can have the gala at the Capitolio, the event there last year was a big success.) This will eliminate all the hassle / fuel consumption of transporting people to and from Palco, Pabexpo, Club Havana etc every day, and keeps everything in the same power grid which is the highest priority one in the country anyway. Move hotel bookings into this strip.

With this way, Habanos doesn't have to refund anyone, the whole thing is a bit more manageable, Cuba still gets a bit of a cash injection, the people who were to receive care packages from Festival goers still get them, the work already done for the Festival prep doesn't go to waste, and there's no new obligation to anyone carried forward.

The alternative is to push ahead exactly as planned with a lot of half empty venues and people who get stuck for transport, left in the dark, and other calamities.

Or to cancel, in which case you need to refund the ticket money and Cuba loses $20m or so in hotel bookings and spend at other businesses, a lot of flights go half empty etc, and all the work that has gone into it already is wasted.

Or reschedule, presumably until about November. Doing this you still lose the revenue short term, and what's to say the situation will be significantly improved by November. It's also rumoured that there was going to be a Habanos World Days in the middle east this year about that time, which would probably need to be moved.

[JohnnyO]

8 hours ago, chris12381 said:

@JohnnyO, baggage revenue helps. Three 70-pound bags per passenger adds up. But that alone does not make a route “very profitable.” These flights still need to be very full. Cuba is not a low-cost operating environment, and elevated airport and handling fees compared to other Caribbean airports tighten margins further.

I took a look at American’s load factors leaving Miami for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Thursday averaged 67%, Friday averaged 67%, and Saturday averaged 43%. I also checked Sunday’s returns to Miami, which averaged 58%. Those are not strong numbers.

Also, US carriers do not have some protected contract guaranteeing the right to serve Cuba. They operate under DOT authority and OFAC approval. That authority can be modified or revoked as US policy changes, just as was done in 2019. American’s lawyers can help manage compliance, but they cannot override federal authority.

If it was that easy to cancel the flights don't you think Rubio would have done it by now? Your load %'s may be correct buy I'm paying $600-$700 for a flight when I can buy a package to Europe with 4 nights in a hotel for $399. Calculate 10 hours of fuel vs 1 hour, the numbers don't lie. Besides, most planes to Cuba can go with max 80% of the passengers because of the bags. At Christmas/New Years the flights to Cuba were over $1000 from Miami. Cuba may have higher airport fees but the consumer pays that. American also sell hotels and cars. BTW, the mules come back on Monday, Tuesday. That all sounds profitable to me.

[Fuzz AI]

Easy fix would be to hold a virtual Festival event. People still buy tickets and get their goody bags, then they go online for the event from the comfort of their home...up until the internet drops off in Cuba, which would be 5 minutes into the event. 

[ha_banos]

Russia announces it will send oil to Cuba? I'm guessing it won't happen. 

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-deliver-crude-oil-fuel-cuba-soon-izvestia-newspaper-reports-2026-02-12/