Gold - has it topped?

[Chibearsv]

Question for the financial geniuses out there. Where is gold headed? It's just a hair off $4950 an ounce right now. I've sold half of what I had and I'm thinking I'd be dumb riding any more of it at this point. I'm curious if there are other driving forces that are pushing physical gold prices higher other than market volatility due to world political uncertainty. I've enjoyed the ride up, especially since it's topped my expectations. Who's got some insight on precious metals? I'm not looking to carry much risk at this point of my life. Should I free-ride what I've got or take the return at this top?

 

[cnov]

Absolutely no expert here. Isn't a stock market crash the big factor that we're waiting on and yet to see? 2008 was a triple or thereabouts for gold prices. 

I'm keen to see what the experts have to say on the matter too. 

 

[joeypots]

FWIW, my wife had been holding a bag of pre '64 US coin junk silver her father gave her in the seventies. Not huge but not nothing. Sold it a week ago. Gold is up something like 75% in a year, silver is pushing over 95$ for a one year gain of 200%. Kind of a bonanza and I bet my FIL, who collected the coins over years as a hobby, would cry to see the we got about 50$ for each dollar of coins.

Sell or hold in such a bull market for precious metals? I wouldn't worry about missing the top and if the metal drops significantly it can always be bought again. A trader friend of mine once said it's never wrong to take a profit. 

[El Presidente]

USD has fallen 9% in the past 12 months against the basket of other major trading currencies. 

Perceived international economic/social/political risk is the highest since WWII. 

Central banks are buying gold aggressively as a reserve asset. 

Gold has proven itself to be a better (more price consistent) hedge than Crypto. 

 

I am not seeing too many downward price pressures on Gold. 

[Chas.Alpha]

Silver is bumping $95.00 USD. I sold 1/2 of mine at $50. 😔

I’m cashing out the rest tomorrow. 

[Chas.Alpha]

7 hours ago, Chibearsv said:

Question for the financial geniuses out there. Where is gold headed? It's just a hair off $4950 an ounce right now. I've sold half of what I had and I'm thinking I'd be dumb riding any more of it at this point. I'm curious if there are other driving forces that are pushing physical gold prices higher other than market volatility due to world political uncertainty. I've enjoyed the ride up, especially since it's topped my expectations. Who's got some insight on precious metals? I'm not looking to carry much risk at this point of my life. Should I free-ride what I've got or take the return at this top? 

Scott, my take is like Joey P said, Never be ashamed to take a profit. I sold half of my physical silver when it hit $50. The other half will be gone before I go to bed Saturday night. Do I feel bad about missing out on 50% on the 1st half?

Kinda. Oh, well…

[barrygoodvibes]

My friend who works for Merrill Lynch told me in cases where I’ve made a lot of money on my investment, it is best to triage it. Sell a third, set a stop to sell a third, and let the other third ride. 

If you are older and want less risk then just sell and put your winnings into an index fund like VOO or QQQ. 

[Chibearsv]

4 hours ago, Chas.Alpha said:

Scott, my take is like Joey P said, Never be ashamed to take a profit. I sold half of my physical silver when it hit $50. The other half will be gone before I go to bed Saturday night. Do I feel bad about missing out on 50% on the 1st half?

Kinda. Oh, well…

Yeah, that’s the way I'm leaning too. I sold half and I'm already profitable. I thought free riding silver dollars in 79 & 80 was a great idea. Only took 45 years to make that decision pay off 😁.

[Chas.Alpha]

4 hours ago, Chibearsv said:

Yeah, that’s the way I'm leaning too. I sold half and I'm already profitable. I thought free riding silver dollars in 79 & 80 was a great idea. Only took 45 years to make that decision pay off 😁.

A word of caution for those that have Morgan/Peace silver dollars. Please check the dates and mint marks. PCGS has a fine price guide posted. For example, a 1878 S is pretty common, but a 1893 O is worth $1000+ in excellent condition. Anything the has a mint marks CC (located below the eagle’s tail feathers on the reverse side) demands a premium. Peace 1921’s are rare and a 1928 P (no mint mark) are the prize of the series. 

Please consult the price guide or reach out to me with any questions.

[Chibearsv]

4 hours ago, barrygoodvibes said:

My friend who works for Merrill Lynch told me in cases where I’ve made a lot of money on my investment, it is best to triage it. Sell a third, set a stop to sell a third, and let the other third ride. 

If you are older and want less risk then just sell and put your winnings into an index fund like VOO or QQQ. 

I like the third’s strategy. Good advice for younger investors. I always thought a 50/50 plan would work well but always seemed to hit it at the top followed by a major drop without a stop plan. Not optimal, that’s for sure. 

[Chas.Alpha]

4 hours ago, Chibearsv said:

I like the third’s strategy. Good advice for younger investors. I always thought a 50/50 plan would work well but always seemed to hit it at the top followed by a major drop without a stop plan. Not optimal, that’s for sure. 

Oh, wait. I gotta get a screen shot of my stock investments bought from the profits of selling silver.

Please stand by…

[Chibearsv]

@Chas.Alpha you might hear from me this weekend. I’ve got to check my silver stash.

[Chas.Alpha]

Just now, Chibearsv said:

@Chas.Alpha you might hear from me this weekend. I’ve got to check my silver stash.

3 ABSOLUTE BULLS IN THE PEN!

1 dog rocket that wiped the others out. 😭

[Chibearsv]

1 minute ago, Chas.Alpha said:

3 ABSOLUTE BULLS IN THE PEN!

1 dog rocket that wiped the others out. 😭

We share investment skill my friend. 

[Chas.Alpha]

I gotta run across the street before the “Storm of the Century” drops 4 flakes of snow in NC. You up for an 8:00?

[Chibearsv]

4 hours ago, Chas.Alpha said:

I gotta run across the street before the “Storm of the Century” drops 4 flakes of snow in NC. You up for an 8:00?

Yep. I’ll check with the other characters. 8:00 your time right?

[LLC]

I’m not an expert but I think Gold still has quite a bit of room with central banks still buying large quantities, retail investors in more notes than ever and the crazy world we live in. One day when it does fall it might be a big drop but nobody knows. In general, if I have an investment that doubles I’ll sell half so the money I have left invested cost me nothing. That way, you realized your gain but still can ride possible upside. If it doubles again I may do the same or just trim a bit. 

[joeypots]

Let's not forget that gold, for the last 50 years, has been a drag on any investment portfolio. Recent price appreciation has caused a frenzy of interest that I suspect will cost many a ton of dough. 

Quote

• Overall Performance: A $100 investment made in 1971 would be worth over $36,000in the S&P 500 by the end of 2025, while the same investment in gold would be worth around $7,000.

It might come in handy to own some gold when there is a steep drop in the US equity markets, but otherwise, it's just yellow metal that has a strong emotional hold on humanity. 

[riderpride]

I'll try to keep the tinfoil hat off for this.

Is it physical or paper? If physical, then hold onto it forever; it can easily be 'willed' without government tracking. If paper, then it'll peak when the global economy sorts itself out - it's been a store of wealth for 2000+ years and there is no substitute. There is no set path forward, but I would suspect it has another $1k to go at a minimum. Also, gambling is a bit of a rush too, no?

Cheers! 

[BlueWS]

This isn't our parents' stock market. This isn't even the same market I've been trading for the last 25 years. After silver got crushed back down to into the teens after the 2011 peak, $50 was my target. Inflation adjusted break even since the 70s is closer to $75 an ounce. It blew right past all of that. The next Fibonacci is $160. I hate the stock market. I hate having to be forced into a speculative gambling machine at this point, but the market is going up. The mag 7 were the few under performers last year believe it or not. EVERYTHING IS UP. When you don't think it can go any higher you're missing the trend. Not to mention catching a moon shot like silver, LRCX, ASTS. That's the market now. These insane momentum plays that go 300%, 1200%. Just don't let a winner turn into a loser and become a bag holder. That's the worst.

[cnov]

6 hours ago, barrygoodvibes said:

My friend who works for Merrill Lynch told me in cases where I’ve made a lot of money on my investment, it is best to triage it. Sell a third, set a stop to sell a third, and let the other third ride. 

If you are older and want less risk then just sell and put your winnings into an index fund like VOO or QQQ. 

Great advice. I've friends that are completely all or nothing, "I'm completely out". Can't hurt to keep 20% or so of a winner and let it run just in case, that last 20% has surpassed expectations and previous profit takings by a long shot in some cases.