Current state of Cuba - article from the Sunday Times

[ha_banos]

Cuba really made $US364m in 2023 from rolled tobacco exports? 

https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/rolled-tobacco/reporter/cub

So much for the embargo there. I guess that's from other countries reporting. No idea about tourism these days.

[SMELTZ]

The fight is between the Cuban government and its people. Until that fight is figured out, we should support the Cuban people through charity. Who has the Cuban people go fund me page set up? I say we all start using our cigar funds to support the Cuban people. Any takers..?

[Fugu]

9 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

Other countries can do business? No offence but do you know how all this works? The US has been actively pushing to prevent other countries and foreign businesses from doing business with Cuba for decades. Foreign businesses dealing with Cuba face punishment in the US.

This is what seems to escape a lot of people about the US embargo on Cuba.

[VeguerosMAN]

The Cubans in FL are anti-communist, and they won't make any sort of deal with the Cuban government unless there is a regime change, as Rubio stated many times. I don't think lifting the embargo will drastically change the lives of Cubans on the island. 

[Ken Gargett]

11 hours ago, VeguerosMAN said:

The Cubans in FL are anti-communist, and they won't make any sort of deal with the Cuban government unless there is a regime change, as Rubio stated many times. I don't think lifting the embargo will drastically change the lives of Cubans on the island. 

it would be a very good start. i think it would be much more than symbolic but even if that was all, i think you would suddenly see a nation with hope. at the moment, there is none. if we put ourselves in their shows, would you not want this? that the people have maintained any dignity after 60 plus years is amazing. 

[El Presidente]

The current US administration is transactional. Cuba is on its knees and Diaz has a private jet. Good time to start the transaction. I don't see it happening for a number of years but background talks could commence. Whether they are/do/or not is above my pay grade. 

The commentary that they can trade with anyone else in the world is pure bullshit. Assuming they had the money, they are locked out of the global financial system (hence they joined Brix) as anyone who deals with the US won't/can't deal directly with Cuba. If you can't understand why, educate yourself. 

Assuming they do find a supplier working third party, costs are significantly higher than dealing direct. 

Fault? 

Cuban government is its own worse enemy. Embargo is an efficient, blunt instrument. 

 

[VeguerosMAN]

10 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

it would be a very good start. i think it would be much more than symbolic but even if that was all, i think you would suddenly see a nation with hope. at the moment, there is none. if we put ourselves in their shows, would you not want this? that the people have maintained any dignity after 60 plus years is amazing. 

The best thing for Cubans is if the US buys out Cuba. I am sure most Cubans won't object to the idea. I don't see any incentives for the US to lift the embargo at this point though, unless the Cuban government collapses but I am sure they are keeping high-ranked military crooks happy to prevent any coup. 

[BrightonCorgi]

5 hours ago, VeguerosMAN said:

The best thing for Cubans is if the US buys out Cuba. I am sure most Cubans won't object to the idea. I don't see any incentives for the US to lift the embargo at this point though, unless the Cuban government collapses but I am sure they are keeping high-ranked military crooks happy to prevent any coup. 

I worry our embargo and stance on Cuba leaves too big a door open for China and any other adversary to move in. For the security & stability of the region, we should elevate and secure all the countries around us to keep adversarial elements away.  Be that making a Cuba a state or whatever other idea that has a similar end.  

[VeguerosMAN]

4 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

I worry our embargo and stance on Cuba leaves too big a door open for China and any other adversary to move in. For the security & stability of the region, we should elevate and secure all the countries around us to keep adversarial elements away.  Be that making a Cuba a state or whatever other idea that has a similar end.

China already has a big presence in Havana and I believe they use Huawei to spy on the US, which is a smart move for the fact that it's only 90 miles that separate from Cuba and the US.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-intelligence-footprint-cuba-new-evidence-and-implications-us-security

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-monitored-workers-of-chinese-telecom-giants-in-cuba-over-spying-suspicion-report/2928101

[BrightonCorgi]

3 hours ago, VeguerosMAN said:

China already has a big presence in Havana and I believe they use Huawei to spy on the US, which is a smart move for the fact that it's only 90 miles that separate from Cuba and the US.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-intelligence-footprint-cuba-new-evidence-and-implications-us-security

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-monitored-workers-of-chinese-telecom-giants-in-cuba-over-spying-suspicion-report/2928101

China could set a Naval shipyard in Cuba and it would be a huge source of employment and revenue for the island. 

[SCgarman]

5 hours ago, VeguerosMAN said:

The best thing for Cubans is if the US buys out Cuba. I am sure most Cubans won't object to the idea. I don't see any incentives for the US to lift the embargo at this point though, unless the Cuban government collapses but I am sure they are keeping high-ranked military crooks happy to prevent any coup. 

It will never happen in a million years. The US is getting OUT of "nation building". What has it got us? Trillions of $$ wasted, and so many of our military either killed or maimed. Cuba seems to be a toxic cocktail to just about all countries. They, whether you like it or not are on their own. If anyone here wants to be a "humanitarian" and save Cuba from itself (LOL), become a politician in your respective country and advocate for Cuba and its people. 

[Mike Mecklenburg]

My friend just returned from Cuba and I sent him the article to review and his response was: 

Unfortunately accurate. Havana is manageable. I had 25 Jazz Fest people the last week in January with no issues at all. Great meals at the restaurants I selected, no transportation problems, and basically with tourism down, we had better service, etc. Vinales has constant dark periods with no electricity unless there is a gas generator, which most tourist joints have. Problems are worse where tourists don’t go, which is what this article explains well. 

[99call]

14 hours ago, El Presidente said:

The current US administration is transactional

Although this is 100% correct, I think we need to maintain a great deal of caution as to whether language starts to sanitise and absolve. Gaddafi was also "transactional", it doesn't make it right or serve as any cold comfort. When you are on the wrong end of it, it can literally be life or death. 

With regards to Cuba my take is very simple; I hope the people get catch a break in whatever form it comes in. I hope the dictators receive justice from their public. I hope Cuba isn't turned into some crass theme park version of itself.

[El Presidente]

9 hours ago, 99call said:

Although this is 100% correct, I think we need to maintain a great deal of caution as to whether language starts to sanitise and absolve

"Transactional" is simply a negotiating framework where one uses its dominance in a certain field to extract a desired outcome in the same or other field. 

[99call]

9 hours ago, El Presidente said:

"Transactional" is simply a negotiating framework where one uses its dominance in a certain field to exact a desired outcome in the same field or another field. 

My point was, it's use infers you have a willing co-operating transactional partner. If you put a gun to my head at a cash point. Are 'we' being transactional? Or are 'you' robbing me?

[Ken Gargett]

5 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

I worry our embargo and stance on Cuba leaves too big a door open for China and any other adversary to move in. For the security & stability of the region, we should elevate and secure all the countries around us to keep adversarial elements away.  Be that making a Cuba a state or whatever other idea that has a similar end.  

BC, the Island's history with the USSR should make it very obvious that this is indeed a real possibility. and who could blame them? but the comment re stability is spot on although any attempt to make Cuba a state would surely have exactly the opposite effect. surely it is time to try the carrot, given the stick has been a dismal and embarrassing failure. 

[El Presidente]

8 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

 surely it is time to try the carrot

That was tried under Obama. Cuba ate the carrot and continued on doing its merry military way. 

You need a carrot and a stick. You still need a really big stick. 

[mikec]

I think back fondly to the "cigar tourism" days of the 90's and early 2000's where it seemed at least from the outside that there was some hope for the younger educated enterprising Cuban to get ahead. Paladares opening everywhere and the opportunity to get a slice of Cuban life staying in the many casa particulares. Cigars where plentiful and cheap with new stores opening all over Havana. How times have changes as greed has taken over and "cigar tourism" is long gone due to the Hong Kong standard pricing instituted there and abroad. I don't really understand why Cuba had to be included in the broad sweep of price increases but Habanos as we knew it no longer exists unfortunately. It was a paradise for cigar smokers and I was fortunate enough to partake of the wonderful cultural experience offered then. Oh well, its over for good now but its really too bad that small slice of tourism had to go.

[El Presidente]

9 hours ago, 99call said:

My point was, it's use infers you have a willing co-operating transactional partner.  If you put a gun to my head at a cash point. Are 'we' being transactional? Or are 'you' robbing me?

Take British gunboat diplomacy of the 19th century. That was using naval power to coerce weaker nations. I see that as "Transactional". "Give us what we want or we will damage you". 

Today we largely swapped bullets for tariffs and subsidies. 

[Ken Gargett]

15 hours ago, VeguerosMAN said:

The best thing for Cubans is if the US buys out Cuba. I am sure most Cubans won't object to the idea. I don't see any incentives for the US to lift the embargo at this point though, unless the Cuban government collapses but I am sure they are keeping high-ranked military crooks happy to prevent any coup. 

i realise that there is a faction in the US which seems to believe that everyone wants to be the 51st state but it really isn't so. we have seen it proposed for a number of nations, now apparently Cuba, and the result, to put it as mildly as possible, has been utterly underwhelming. as i have said before, i love the US and the people (well, the vast majority), loved living there and almost stayed for good, but if there was any attempt to make us the next state, i'd be down at the recruiting office before they opened. and i suspect a great many Cubans will feel the same - people all around the world would feel the same. is there really a single nation out there that wants to be absorbed into the US? none i can think of despite what a bunch of deluded politicians might be telling themselves.  

why the hell should there be incentives for the US to lift the embargo? they put it on, they should take it off. apparently human decency is not enough of an incentive? it may well have been worth trying in the first place but when it became more than obvious that it was a failed policy of the US, one which caused immense harm and suffering and ripped away the dignity of innocent people, was it not time to lift it? the fact that it is now all about whether lifting it is worth votes or not is utterly shameful. 

what harm would the US suffer if it was lifted? seriously. a couple of weeks of newspaper articles pointing out it should have been done years ago, the vast majority of which almost all Americans won't read, though i strongly suspect that the US would get far more positive responses. anything else? 

8 hours ago, El Presidente said:

That was tried under Obama. Cuba ate the carrot and continued on doing its merry military way. 

You need a carrot and a stick. You still need a really big stick. 

in fairness, what Obama did only lasted briefly before the next administration reversed it. given a chance, who knows? i remember being in Cuba shortly after Obama's actions and the people had such hope, such amazing optimism, such gratitude that someone was doing something for them. who knows where it would have led, given the chance. 

[El Presidente]

8 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

in fairness, what Obama did only lasted briefly before the next administration reversed it. given a chance, who knows? i remember being in Cuba shortly after Obama's actions and the people had such hope, such amazing optimism, such gratitude that someone was doing something for them. who knows where it would have led, given the chance. 

You are deluded or have a selective memory.

Yes, people we associated with were "so happy". They were indeed the primary beneficiaries. Less so outside of Havana and the big towns or if you were poor and black. 

So was the government a beneficiary. They hoovered up the cash, got stronger, and reinvested the money in hotels the military owned as opposed to investing in their power plants and grids. How has that worked out for them today?  

[VeguerosMAN]

Perhaps we need to pump the brakes and take a deep breath before unnecessary shots are fired over things that we can't control. "My credit good enough to buy you out Your Casino loses money, maybe we can do better." This from Michael Corleone to Moe Green in Godfather, is what I was thinking if the US wants to buy out Cuba, which will be almost impossible, but one can only dream. 

[Ken Gargett]

8 hours ago, El Presidente said:

You are deluded or have a selective memory.

Yes, people we associated with were "so happy". They were indeed the primary beneficiaries. Less so outside of Havana and the big towns or if you were poor and black. 

So was the government a beneficiary. They hoovered up the cash, got stronger, and reinvested the money in hotels the military owned as opposed to investing in their power plants and grids. How has that worked out for them today?  

i don't think it is fair to judge what Obama tried to do on what we have today. had his policies been given the chance, who knows. but no doubt there would have been corruption. not as though we don't see endless corruption in some of the so called first world nations these days, on a scale that makes the Cuban govt look like rank amateurs. 

i would argue that you are wrong in relation to the initial reaction. i'd go further and say delirious rather than so happy. you will recall i took a couple of trips there myself, without all the gang at various times. one was literally a week or two after Obama's announcements. jesus could literally have walked into the biggest happy clappers' congregation you could find on the planet and the reaction would not have been as extreme. this was not government workers. this was people in bars, clubs, on the street. plenty of the poor and black (i would agree about outside Havana but i would suggest that this was because there was no internet and the only news they got was what fed to them, or the little that was word of mouth and i am sure that had i been in their shoes, i'd have struggled to believe it). it was all anyone there wanted to talk about. i will never forget a couple of old ladies on their knees hailing Obama as their saviour (yes, it all seemed over the top at the time but i guess i had not lived under the heel of the US embargo). i remember being in one of your fave clubs and the crowd spontaneously singing songs about Obama, late at night. there really was incredible optimism, even if only for a short while. all this didn't last that long and by another visit shortly after, much of it had already dissipated, but they were true believers for a while. they had hope and he had given them back their dignity, even if only briefly. 

[99call]

8 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Take British gunboat diplomacy of the 19th century. That was using naval power to coerce weaker nations. I see that as "Transactional". "Give us what we want or we will damage you". 

Today we largely swapped bullets for tariffs and subsidies. 

That and interfering with elections. I think bullets will be sadly making a comeback in Europe very shortly.

[Ken Gargett]

8 hours ago, 99call said:

That and interfering with elections. I think bullets will be sadly making a comeback in Europe very shortly.

tragically, i think you might well be right. 

as much as i would enjoy continuing this debate with everyone, you will have to excuse me. i need to make sure i am not late for a tasting. we have the team behind Vega Sicilia here today and it would be a crime of huge proportions to miss it. granted a first world problem, but i'm sure everyone here will have resolved Cuba's problems by the time i am back.