Apple Cancels Project Titan

[Fuzz]

11 minutes ago, BrightonCorgi said:

There could be tariffs in the future for Chinese made EV's.

Already are, that's why they are building a plant in Mexico and another in Brazil.

[BrightonCorgi]

6 hours ago, Fuzz said:

Already are, that's why they are building a plant in Mexico and another in Brazil.

No cars from Brazil are imported to the States.  We don't have the best of relations with Brazil.  Mexico is our no. 1 for imported car country.

[VeguerosMAN]

12 hours ago, El Presidente said:

BYD is impressive. Their speed of releases (at increasing quality/range/design has everyone in the EV world on notice. They are already the largest manufacturer.

Musk didn't ask for government intervention in January 2024 for nothing.

EV take up rates in many Western countries (including US) has stalled. 

It will indeed be interesting to see how legacy makers in the US/ Europe/Japan/South Korea, handle it.

Toyota with their hybrid strategy look like geniuses right now.

If this were a game of football, we are at the beginning of the second quarter.

....and no, I can't see myself buying a BYD or Tesla) as they don't meet my needs right now. 

Whether it is Tesla or BYD or any other car giant, my interest is simply one of a business enthusiast looking on and reading the tea leaves in a fast changing world. 

Will Tesla stock price be valued as an auto company and not a tech stock?

Will Chinese EV manufacturers face increasing tarrifs from car manufacturing countries?

Will EV adoption rates recalibrate to pre 2022 levels? 

Will Toyota's strategy win out?

I could go on.

Truly fascinating for the business inquiring mind 

 

Legacy companies such as Ford, GM, Toyota were never a competition to Tesla as they can't make EVs. That's why I believe they are singing different tunes right now and cutting down EV production scales because they are losing too much money. The demand is there, they just can't make it fast enough. On the other hand, BYD is a true competition on  a global scale to Tesla. Let's see how hybrid and oil cars compete with 2nd generation Tesla productions (25k and under prices) and BYD. I think it's the beginning of the end for a lot of legacy autos.

6 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

No cars from Brazil are imported to the States. We don't have the best of relations with Brazil. Mexico is our no. 1 for imported car country.

It will be interesting to see who will dominate South American market- BYD or Tesla... they  are building factories in Mexico, but my money is on Tesla's new 2nd generation cars.  The giga press is a game changer and has an edge over other manufatures for speed production.  Tesla will have another giga factory in Asia ( most likley in India).  I believe BYD is coming to USA sooner or later as FORD and lagacy autos fail in the future. 

[El Presidente]

21 hours ago, VeguerosMAN said:

 Let's see how hybrid and oil cars compete with 2nd generation Tesla productions (25k and under prices) and BYD. I think it's the beginning of the end for a lot of legacy autos.

Toyota look like they have been gifted the 4X4/tradesman/tow/commercial truck market. The world is still shaking its head at cybertruck and Rivian is losing $40k per vehicle before facing real world, consumer testing. F150 lightning was a bellwether disaster for the sector. Tesla trucks were promising but 5 years late should have given clues to the challenges. Still almost impossible to get varied independent real world reviews.

Toyota  preached hybrid when everyone else laughed. It turned out that if a vehicle needed to genuinely push, pull or carry load over range, elec isn't going to do it alone. Governments are going to push ahead with electrification of transport regardless and hybrid is an acceptable compromise. 

Tesla II generation isn't due out until end 2025. That is a traditional Auto company model roll out strategy but it may not cut it in the current market. 

Zara revolutionised the clothing market with a 6 week design to consumer strategy. 

Shein has now become the no 1 clothing retailer in the world with a 6 day model. They are looking at a US IPO this year I believe. 

BYD look to be the Shein of the EV car market. Flexible,  Clean, lean, chic and cheap. 

The BYD Dolphin EV in Australia is already $24800 USD

I wouldn't be giving them an 18 month head start.

[VeguerosMAN]

12 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Toyota look like they have been gifted the 4X4/tradesman/tow/commercial truck market. The world is still shaking its head at cybertruck and Rivian is losing $40k per vehicle before facing real world, consumer testing. F150 lightning was a bellwether disaster for the sector. Tesla trucks were promising but 5 years late should have given clues to the challenges. Still almost impossible to get varied independent real world reviews.

Toyota  preached hybrid when everyone else laughed. It turned out that if a vehicle needed to genuinely push, pull or carry load over range, elec isn't going to do it alone. Governments are going to push ahead with electrification of transport regardless and hybrid is an acceptable compromise. 

Tesla II generation isn't due out until end 2025. That is a traditional Auto company model roll out strategy but it may not cut it in the current market. 

Zara revolutionised the clothing market with a 6 week design to consumer strategy. 

Shein has now become the no 1 clothing retailer in the world with a 6 day model. They are looking at a US IPO this year I believe. 

BYD look to be the Shein of the EV car market. Flexible,  Clean, lean, chic and cheap. 

The BYD Dolphin EV in Australia is already $24800 USD

I wouldn't be giving them an 18 month head start.

I believe Cyber truck will melt faces and revolutionze the whole truck industry. It just came out two months ago and I don't think it's fair to make a valid judgement now.   Lucid is losing 300k+ per each vehicle.  Actually Rivian was losing 60k per vehicle not so long ago.  There is a rumor that Apple should buy out Rivian (I doubt they will).  Toyota and Apple had a chance to buy out Tesla in their early days but they didn't believe in Musk's vision.  The model Y is the best selling car in the world even during this high interest era, so i believe their new model 2 will be the best seller as well.  Toyota EV sells are dismal in China, which is the biggest car market in the world. Musk's goal is to produce 20 mil cars per year by 2030. When that happens, Toyota is no longer relevant.  I may be biased tough in my reasoning because I believe in Musk's vision and Tesla's future. 

 

I can't grasp the magnitude of Lucid loss per each vehicle (338k)  I am not business savvy enough to understand how  a company can lose this much per product and not go bankrupt within days.  Could someone please explain what's going on here?  Basically they are burning one Ferarri per each vehicle they make.  So from business point of view, it would be better for them to not make any cars and sells in order to save money? 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-06/ev-maker-lucid-s-338-000-loss-per-car-is-turning-investors-off

[BrightonCorgi]

10 hours ago, VeguerosMAN said:

I can't grasp the magnitude of Lucid loss per each vehicle (338k)  I am not business savvy enough to understand how  a company can lose this much per product and not go bankrupt within days.  Could someone please explain what's going on here?  Basically they are burning one Ferarri per each vehicle they make.  So from business point of view, it would be better for them to not make any cars and sells in order to save money? 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-06/ev-maker-lucid-s-338-000-loss-per-car-is-turning-investors-off

A friend of mine is Lucid's service manager for north east. Any car north east of DC is serviced at this one facility a few miles from my house. 40,000 sq garage space. If your Lucid breaks down, they drop off another of the same as a loaner car. Great service. It sounds like they are pretty reliable and better crafted than a Tesla.

The design is amazing. The curved windshield is wicked, along with the Bridge of Weir leather interior. I believe they are hoping to be a player in the middle east. They're opening a factory in Saudi Arabia. I guess their battery tech is better than the most? I've been meaning to go test drive one.

[VeguerosMAN]

6 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

A friend of mine is Lucid's service manager for north east. Any car north east of DC is serviced at this one facility a few miles from my house. 40,000 sq garage space. If your Lucid breaks down, they drop off another of the same as a loaner car. Great service. It sounds like they are pretty reliable and better crafted than a Tesla.

The design is amazing. The curved windshield is wicked, along with the Bridge of Weir leather interior. I believe they are hoping to be a player in the middle east. They're opening a factory in Saudi Arabia. I guess their battery tech is better than the most? I've been meaning to go test drive one.

I like their designs as well but they need a new management if they want to survive. I don't think any business can sustain when they burn 300k+ per each product they produce. 

[El Presidente]

6 hours ago, VeguerosMAN said:

I like their designs as well but they need a new management if they want to survive. I don't think any business can sustain when they burn 300k+ per each product they produce. 

I honestly don't know the history nor the business plan.

However it took Uber 13 years to post a profit and Tesla 18? You might want to check that as I am drinking Negronis, smoking a D4 and watching football 😁

[VeguerosMAN]

6 hours ago, El Presidente said:

I honestly don't know the history nor the business plan.

However it took Uber 13 years to post a profit and Tesla 18? You might want to check that as I am drinking Negronis, smoking a D4 and watching football 😁

Tesla was profitable since 2020. So that would be around 8 years since Tesla became public. 

[BrightonCorgi]

15 hours ago, VeguerosMAN said:

I like their designs as well but they need a new management if they want to survive. I don't think any business can sustain when they burn 300k+ per each product they produce. 

Musk thinks the Kingdom is the only thing keeping Lucid alive. Taking Lucid private by PIF would be a neat idea. I could see them going after Aston Martin next or instead of Lucid. Aston Martin licenses lucid EV tech for upcoming hybrid and EV models.

Elon Musk Says 'Saudi Sugar Daddy' Is Only Thing Keeping Lucid Alive

[VeguerosMAN]

6 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

Musk thinks the Kingdom is the only thing keeping Lucid alive.  Taking Lucid private by PIF would be a neat idea.  I could see them going after Aston Martin next or instead of Lucid.  Aston Martin licenses lucid EV tech for upcoming hybrid and EV models.

Elon Musk Says 'Saudi Sugar Daddy' Is Only Thing Keeping Lucid Alive

I have a feeling the Saudi will pull the plug at some point this year. There is no demand with the brand... almost 50% of their vehicles are sitting while losing 330k+ per vehicle they sell.  

[BrightonCorgi]

8 minutes ago, VeguerosMAN said:

I have a feeling the Saudi will pull the plug at some point this year.  There is no demad with the brand... almost 50% of their vehicles are sitting while losing 330k+ per vehicle they sell.  

Unless the Saudi's are tanking the stock Henry Ford style for a bargain take over.

[Bijan]

On 3/2/2024 at 2:17 AM, El Presidente said:

It will indeed be interesting to see how legacy makers in the US/ Europe/Japan/South Korea, handle it.

Toyota with their hybrid strategy look like geniuses right now.

It looks to me like they're dealing with it as well as big tobacco dealt with smoking bans...

[VeguerosMAN]

1 hour ago, BrightonCorgi said:

Unless the Saudi's are tanking the stock Henry Ford style for a bargain take over.

Hmm. Then again I don't know whether it's best interest for the Saudi's to tank the stock when they own 60% of the stake. 

[rolaand]

I’m here for all the EV speculation as an “insider”. The market is far more heterogeneous than the financials may indicate. Also there will likely be a larger coalescence of the charging infrastructure and likely a removal of a couple of standards going away in the mid term. I would not be surprised if another Apple product emerged as a buy out of a smaller company.

[LordAnubis]

It’s interesting how EV trucks aren’t going anywhere but in the mining space we’ve got electric 300t leibherrs going. Plenty of charging issues etc etc but the duty seems to be solid for the haulage trucks and diggers. We are even starting to see financials that solar power generation with an increased mining fleet to cover charge times is in fact reducing unit cost in a high volume industry like iron ore. Green Steel instead of asking for a premium price point is looking to genuinely be a discounted price product. Crazy.  

[BrightonCorgi]

7 hours ago, LordAnubis said:

It’s interesting how EV trucks aren’t going anywhere but in the mining space we’ve got electric 300t leibherrs going. Plenty of charging issues etc etc but the duty seems to be solid for the haulage trucks and diggers. We are even starting to see financials that solar power generation with an increased mining fleet to cover charge times is in fact reducing unit cost in a high volume industry like iron ore. Green Steel instead of asking for a premium price point is looking to genuinely be a discounted price product. Crazy.  

Are you in the mining industry?

[Hammer Smokin']

Tons of EV maintenance vehicles are used in the far (FAR) north to service Wind Turbines. The cold has been dealt with. Range still has not (yet). 

[rolaand]

Yeah mining and maintenance are huge considerations for both EV and autonomous vehicle (AV)

[LordAnubis]

12 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

Are you in the mining industry?

Yeah mate. I’m a mineral processing metallurgist. 

[BrightonCorgi]

On 3/20/2024 at 12:58 PM, LordAnubis said:

Yeah mate. I’m a mineral processing metallurgist. 

I was a consultant at BHP for a bit. Worked in their Singapore office.

My dad was a PhD in Geology.

[cjmaas]

Not especially educated on the subject and don’t carry much baggage ideologically, culturally, or otherwise so I’m probably a decent stand in for the average (US anyway) consumer. I don’t get it. Hybrid seems like the better answer. Honestly, with 40% efficient ICE already available and 50% not far off, not sure either ev or hybrid make sense at all. It all seems like a bridge to some future tech anyway, so not sold on the need. My understanding is that the grid is not even close to able to support widespread at home charging and the fights over the expansion of that infrastructure make improvements incredibly expensive and slow if not altogether impossible. Which makes sense honestly. I don’t want to live below a new set of transmission lines across the street from a new transformer station. At the same time the world is turning away from nuclear so now I’m forgoing a 40% efficient ICE engine delivering power to my vehicle for a 35% efficient coal or gas powerplant offsite and the immense infrastructure required to deliver that power to me with another ~5% lost in transmission. And we haven’t even touched on the battery inputs, maintenance costs and everything else I’m forgetting. Just doesn’t add up for me. 
 

I am absolutely sold on the dream of self driving cars and look forward to that future, whoever the winners may be. Disheartened by the difficulties and delays in this space, but believe it’s a matter of when, not if. Will not be encouraging my kids to pursue careers in auto body repair.