It’s been a year.

[Rhinoww]

… but it has. 
 

The last box of banded cigars I bought was on Sept 19 2022, a box of VR Famosos from FOH. A week before two ten packs also from FOH. Been a year since I bought a box. 
 

I remember the days when I used to order a box or so a week. That was then. Now a bundle of customs every month or so. Sad. 
 

Plenty of boxes left but alas I am waiting for prices to drop again. I may wait many many years. Such a bummer. I doubt I’ll be back in the game for years. Thanks Habanos. 
 

Cigars are great. Pricing model not so much. 
 

Rant over. 

[Koaxke]

Do you think prices are actually going to drop again?  I'll admit I'm relatively new to all of this, but I feel worried that prices won't drop much in the future.

[TobaccoRoad]

September 16 2022 was the last habanos purchase for me. Seems longer than a year. Not counting on prices decreasing in my lifetime. I'm good with it. Gonna smoke something every night after supper and whether it's a new world cigar or a cuban. I'm OK either way. 

[Corylax18]

48 minutes ago, Koaxke said:

Do you think prices are actually going to drop again?  I'll admit I'm relatively new to all of this, but I feel worried that prices won't drop much in the future.

I tend to agree with you. If Cuba's cigar industry continues to go in the same direction as every single other industry in the country, prices will only rise. In a few years each of the few dozen boxes they're able to produce will go for six figures each. Or they'll start importing Tobacco from the US, just like they do with sugar, chicken, rice, beans, medicine, etc. 

[SCgarman]

When the ubiquitous box of Monte 4 is pushing close to 400usd, it is obvious the whole Cuban cigar industry is in shambles. My money now is all in on the Nudie line of cigars. At this point it's a no brainer. 

[SCgarman]

9 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

I tend to agree with you. If Cuba's cigar industry continues to go in the same direction as every single other industry in the country, prices will only rise. In a few years each of the few dozen boxes they're able to produce will go for six figures each. Or they'll start importing Tobacco from the US, just like they do with sugar, chicken, rice, beans, medicine, etc. 

Who exactly is "exporting " all those items you listed from the USA? And are they accepting monetary payment from the Cuban government? Enlighten me please.

[Corylax18]

3 hours ago, SCgarman said:

Who exactly is "exporting " all those items you listed from the USA? And are they accepting monetary payment from the Cuban government? Enlighten me please.

Private Businesses on a pure cash basis. Once the cash is in the bank, they let the ship leave the US port. Chicken makes up the vast majority of it, but the list of items has grown tremendously in the last few years. The article linked below from the Miami Herald sheds some more light on the "who" recently, but food and medicine have been excluded from the Embargo since 2001. There was a drop in export $ value during the pandemic, but since then, the numbers are higher than they've ever been. I've said it dozens of times but the embargo/blockade are really just a myth these days, little more than a tool politicians use to blame the other side. The requirement of cash in hand certainly slows things down, but Cuba doesn't pay their bills so its a very smart move by anyone doing business with them, whether it's legally required or not. 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article278378999.html

[Fireball]

Do you think prices are actually going to drop again?  I'll admit I'm relatively new to all of this, but I feel worried that prices won't drop much in the future.

I don’t think prices will go down any time soon. More and more people want the product around the globe- especially China. Low supply, high demand…

I just smoke the cigars I have and pretend they aren’t worth what people are selling them for.

[Ford2112]

I guarantee the prices on Cohiba and Trinidad will come down at some point, especially Trini.

[ha_banos]

With global inflation and oil prices I wager they might not increase for a while. But I bet the prices wont come down.

There are already plenty of discounts being offered by various retail outlets.

[Yardley]

8 hours ago, Fireball Ron said:

More and more people want the product around the globe- especially China.

Really interesting to see what happens with China’s looming (possibly significant) recession. I wonder how much of China’s purchasing is for status vs enjoyment. China’s growth is unlike any other in history, and it’s correction may look very different as well. Not so sure that demand will be so high in the next 5 years. 

[Rhinoww]

My guess is that in a few years production will catch up on some popular non Cohiba/Trin sticks and there will be deep sales compared to current prices on a few - like Party short, a PC like Mille Fleur and perhaps even a Robusto now and again. The bigger sticks and the smaller label stuff may never come down in price though - they just won’t be made in any real volume. 

Just my .02, but Habanos needs an entry point and the small format stick is relatively inexpensive, can be made in volume, and frankly a strong point of the portfolio. 

Smoked a party short last night while doing some yard work. It was a great stick. 

[SCgarman]

38 minutes ago, Rhinoww said:

My guess is that in a few years production will catch up on some popular non Cohiba/Trin sticks and there will be deep sales compared to current prices on a few - like Party short, a PC like Mille Fleur and perhaps even a Robusto now and again. The bigger sticks and the smaller label stuff may never come down in price though - they just won’t be made in any real volume. 

Just my .02, but Habanos needs an entry point and the small format stick is relatively inexpensive, can be made in volume, and frankly a strong point of the portfolio. 

Smoked a party short last night while doing some yard work. It was a great stick. 

Prices on anything only decrease when there is a glut of supply and low demand. Personally I see the supply side never being what it was pre-2019. Too many x factors working against it. 

[El Presidente]

12 hours ago, SCgarman said:

Prices on anything only decrease when there is a glut of supply and low demand. Personally I see the supply side never being what it was pre-2019. Too many x factors working against it. 

We discussed it briefly on FOH Zoom yesterday. 

Cuba harvested 5000 hectares last season. Take a line on the 5 years before that, 18000 hectares average annually approximately. I do have concerns that numbers are rubbery at best. 

This year there are mixed messages on the 2023 planting season. 10000-14000 hectares aimed for. That is low but there is a shortage of everything from fuel to fertilizer. 

While they should have ample tobacco for 24/5/6?. 2027 onwards looks ominous without a bumper season this year. 

 

[BrightonCorgi]

In the last 40 years, has there ever been a price drop with Habanos? 

If there was a local price drop, was that due to wholesale pricing or a reduced taxation?

[SCgarman]

16 hours ago, El Presidente said:

We discussed it briefly on FOH Zoom yesterday. 

Cuba harvested 5000 hectares last season. Take a line on the 5 years before that, 18000 hectares average annually approximately. I do have concerns that numbers are rubbery at best. 

This year there are mixed messages on the 2023 planting season. 10000-14000 hectares aimed for. That is low but there is a shortage of everything from fuel to fertilizer. 

While they should have ample tobacco for 24/5/6?. 2027 onwards looks ominous without a bumper season this year. 

 

Even if tobacco supply was a non-issue, who is going to process it, roll it, box it etc.? With an industry that relies on human hands to make these cigars, where are the hands and the humans? Many have exited stage left!  As in left the island. I see Jorge Maique who was a leader of Habanos at one time is working as a factory manager for a large NC brand in the Dominican. 

[vladdraq]

@SCgarman Jorge Maique left? Wow, didn't know that.