Cuban Cigar Industry Poll

[Nocoins]

A serious problem, one that I don't think will get better, is the quality of construction. At the prices HSA now is demanding, it is unacceptable. Other than cigars that are far too firm to draw well, I've really never been able to consistently identify a pass from a fail before lighting one up. Far too many fail. How will this improve, if talented rollers and those who can teach the craft are leaving? 

[KCCubano]

8 hours ago, Nocoins said:

A serious problem, one that I don't think will get better, is the quality of construction. At the prices HSA now is demanding, it is unacceptable. Other than cigars that are far too firm to draw well, I've really never been able to consistently identify a pass from a fail before lighting one up. Far too many fail. How will this improve, if talented rollers and those who can teach the craft are leaving? 

Totally agree and I have felt this way for years. The value for me is not what it once was. 

[Puros Y Vino]

On 3/30/2023 at 11:18 AM, BrightonCorgi said:

Hate to say it, but China controlling the Cuban cigar industry is probably the best thing for the Habanos at moment.  They know how to run an operation and are familiar with consistent products at any price point.  It's never good for the workers.

There's not much reason beyond flaring tensions and mega shipping ports to really infiltrate Cuba for the Chinese.

I think this opens the door to Chinese tobacco finding its' way into Cuban cigars. That will be the death knell for them.  I can see them using Cuban tobacco for the Chinese market and their tobacco for the rest of the world.   If China does get more involved, it'd have to be focused on improving and assisting Tabacuba with their logistics.  They need modern farming equipment, their curing barns rebuilt and possibly more bodies out on the field.  It would be helpful if Cuba in general didn't keep screwing over their farmers in the first place.  With prices and margins higher than ever, they need to share/re-invest those $$'s back into the farms and farmers. 

[jaybo41]

Unfortunately, the cuban cigar industry has been a disaster waiting to happen for many years.  Throw in the pandemic and hurricane and we are where we are.  I don't know it's the exact same situation with sugar cane.  Cuban tobacco has very unique characteristics.  New World tobacco and blending has come a very long way since I started enjoying cigars in the early 2000's.  I get the supply & demand and pricing aspect, but they are pricing themselves into a corner with many at this point.  Constant price increases, minimal supply, and not many workers can only sustain them for so long.  I hope I'm wrong and I hope the ship can be righted, but I think this ship is sinking.  

[LordAnubis]

I mean really. What’s a disaster? Right now you can get more cigars than ever before if you’re willing to pay the price. There are many willing to pay. I am not one of them, but I also don’t have a Ferrari and don’t cry about not having one. The problem with habanos is memories. We remember what it was just a few years ago. Give it a few years and new smokers coming in won’t know what it was. To them it’ll be normal. Habanos is making record profits if any numbers are to be believed. They’re working half as much to make the same money. Every one of us would chose the exact same thing for ourselves. Will their strategy collapse for them? From people buying up here and everywhere else, we have proven ourselves wrong. A friend here says it best. People here complain about 10 dollar cigars. We here in australia know that when the government made our cigars 15 dollars. Then 20 then 30 then 50 then 80 dollars…. We still buy. 

[MrBirdman]

1 hour ago, LordAnubis said:

We here in australia know that when the government made our cigars 15 dollars. Then 20 then 30 then 50 then 80 dollars…. We still buy. 

True, but it's not quite the same. In Australia any NCs underwent the same increases due to taxes. In markets without punitively high tax rates, CC are rapidly outpacing the competition at a time where NC quality and variety is generally better than it's ever been. Davidoff is now a value compared to Trinidad or Cohiba. Just as memories of lower prices can fade, so can the memories of a time when CC were indisputably "the best" and NC weren't worth much attention.

It's all a matter of supply in the end - if they keep things lean they will find enough buyers willing to pay increasingly exorbitant prices. But I can't imagine it's the best approach from a revenue standpoint - unless they simply cannot sustain a greater production capacity than at present.

And all this assumes they can keep their current level of quality. If brain drain or bad harvests start driving down quality, things will get dire fast for almost anything but Cohiba.

[helix]

1 hour ago, MrBirdman said:

And all this assumes they can keep their current level of quality.

Doubtful.⚰️ 

[PuroDiario]

For those referring to China’s future control of Cuba… China is already in Cuba. It’s its second most important trading partner, first one if you exclude oil. Sino-Cuban close ties go back decades and they have only accelerated over time. While bilateral trade has decreased mostly due to  the increased US sanctions, COVID and else, Cuba is part of Belt and Road initiative and there are Infra and energy projects in development, and the usual approach seen in other difficult geographies of the world, being deployed or planned to be.  Check the contractors list for the port of Santiago de Cuba just as an example. Or the net export/import volumes from the island to China.

Getting into speculation…If you look at people with close ties to the Allied Cigar deal with Imperial for the 50% of Habanos, you will find names with a history of closeness with the CCP. Alvin Chau (now defenestrated, thanks to our  beloved Australian friends https://amp.smh.com.au/national/crims-casinos-and-communists-how-australia-turned-the-screws-on-alvin-chau-20211212-p59gu9.html) and other names around SunCity business. 
 

 

[El Presidente]

18 hours ago, PuroDiario said:

Getting into speculation…If you look at people with close ties to the Allied Cigar deal with Imperial for the 50% of Habanos, you will find names with a history of closeness with the CCP. Alvin Chau (now defenestrated, thanks to our  beloved Australian friends https://amp.smh.com.au/national/crims-casinos-and-communists-how-australia-turned-the-screws-on-alvin-chau-20211212-p59gu9.html) and other names around SunCity business.

Great read 

[MrBirdman]

4 hours ago, Monterey said:

In collaboration with big-foot working the fields, unicorns getting the tobacco to the rollers and leprechauns at the factory blessing the rolling process.  I mean, of course things will get better.  Man, I want to live in your world of delusions  

 

Darn that fake news.  C'mon people 9-11 was a conspiracy, wake up everyone!

I mean, thinking ahead and making sure the people have what the need.  That is Cuba 101.  Plentiful food and supplies for all.  Shortages? FAKE NEWS!

You must be new to Cuba!

That’s not quite fair to @LizardGizmo - he’s got more first-hand knowledge of the situation in Cuba right now than most members. I’m not optimistic but I’m also not sure it will completely collapse, even if things are probably unlikely to fully return to pre-COVID this decade. It may be Cuba but it’s been “Cuba” for 60-some years and they’ve kept the gilapy going this long. Thats certainly no guarantee they’ll pull things out, of course. The only thing that’s clear is that righting the production ship is not compatible with with continuing price increases without a large corresponding increase in demand. 

[LizardGizmo]

3 hours ago, Monterey said:

In collaboration with big-foot working the fields, unicorns getting the tobacco to the rollers and leprechauns at the factory blessing the rolling process.  I mean, of course things will get better.  Man, I want to live in your world of delusions  

Darn that fake news.  C'mon people 9-11 was a conspiracy, wake up everyone!

I certainly appreciate your skepticism - your sarcasm, not as much. My feelings are wholly sourced from people at Laguito and Corona, with whom I spent quite a bit of time with last month. They have no reason to try to impress me, nor do they have any reason to lie about it. My feelings on the hurricane impact are directly coming from those conversations. I was told point blank that the investors will do anything to tell stories of shortage and impossible crops to justify more price increases.

3 hours ago, Monterey said:

I mean, thinking ahead and making sure the people have what the need.  That is Cuba 101.  Plentiful food and supplies for all.  Shortages? FAKE NEWS!

You must be new to Cuba!

When we were at both factories, the directors had staff handing cartons of eggs out to production staff to take home for the week. Apparently they do this every week in one form or another. It was notable, given the reactions on the torcedors' faces when they were handed two dozen eggs.

Despite Habanos, despite Tabacuba, despite 'Cuba being Cuba', despite its complications, the people on the ground are trying their best - and this feeds my optimism.

[Corylax18]

5 hours ago, LizardGizmo said:

I certainly appreciate your skepticism - your sarcasm, not as much. My feelings are wholly sourced from people at Laguito and Corona, with whom I spent quite a bit of time with last month. They have no reason to try to impress me, nor do they have any reason to lie about it. My feelings on the hurricane impact are directly coming from those conversations. I was told point blank that the investors will do anything to tell stories of shortage and impossible crops to justify more price increases.

When we were at both factories, the directors had staff handing cartons of eggs out to production staff to take home for the week. Apparently they do this every day in one form or another. It was notable, given the reactions on the torcedors' faces when they were handed two dozen eggs.

Despite Habanos, despite Tabacuba, despite 'Cuba being Cuba', despite its complications, the people on the ground are trying their best - and this feeds my optimism.

OK. So you bought HSA'S propaganda, during the charade that is Festival week? Come on man. You don't have first hand experience of anything, you where told a tale and now you're passing it along as fact. That's a bad look. 

I went to PdR it was/is Devastated. I am very close personal friends with the manager of the wrapper grading room at EL. I can promise you, they don't get cartoons of eggs any other week of the year. The dedicated bus they take to/from the factory often isn't even functioning most days. The two toilets in the entire building don't even have seats. I also pent some time at La corona the week before the festival, their bus runs, but they don't have boxes for anything. Did HSA show everybody the Overflowing escaparate by chance? If things are going so well for these employees at La Corona than why are they so eager to sell tourists those cigars (hundreds at a time) for pennies on the dollar? 

I add just a few pictures of the Truth in PdR below. Please, Please don't be mouthpiece for the Cuban government. 

 

 

[LizardGizmo]

27 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

OK. So you bought HSA'S propaganda, during the charade that is Festival week? Come on man. You dont have first hand experience of anything, you where told a tale and now you're passing it along as fact. That's a bad look. 

I went to PdR it was/is Devastated. I am very close personal friends with the manager of the wrapper grading room at EL. I can promise you, they don't get cartoons of eggs any other week of the year. The dedicated bus they take to/from the factory often isn't even functioning most days. The two toilets in the entire building don't even have seats. I also pent some time at La corona the week before the festival, their bus runs, but they dont have boxes for anything. Did HSA show everybody the Overflowing escaparate by chance? If things are going so well for these employees at La Corona than why are they so eager to sell tourists those cigars(hundreds at a time) for pennies on the dollar? 

I add just a few pictures of the Truth in PdR below. Please, Please dont be mouthpiece for the Cuban government. 

In fact, I visited the factories the two weeks following the festival. I did not visit or intend to visit during festival week. I went to gala dinner just so I could discuss it on our podcast, which I will in a few weeks. I can't wait to talk about the lunacy.

There was no charade. Both factories had deliveries of food while I was there, and the 5 of us were the only visitors at both factories when we were there. I'm commenting on what I saw. There were hundreds of dozens of eggs being delivered at both factories when we were there.

I am not commenting on the disaster in PDR. I am commenting that the Chinese/HSA will be using it to continue to justify price increases. I was told that they are having no issues getting tobacco for production, despite the large scale infrastructure issues. The rolling desks were full and there was no shortage of tobacco. I am not some mouthpiece for anyone - in fact, we regularly rip HSA apart on our podcast.

I am also not making general statements that Cuba is some damn magical happy perfect place. I'm saying the people in production are *trying* to do their best. Not sure why we can't separate these people from the Cuban gov't and HSA for our discussion here.