So where to now for the Cuban people?


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Thinking outside of an embargo, can you come up with ideas of what could be done to assist cubans to fascilitate change, without assisting the cuban govt?

With the Nov 15 protests in Havana quashed by authorities, it must be a truly demoralising time for those seeking, hoping, begging for change. 

By any measure, you would have to say Cuba has hit rock bottom with precious few green shoots.  

Hyperinflation, food shortages, bankrupt state, currency no mans land, financial market pariah, social unrest. 

Tourism restarting may help in putting a bandaid over the gaping wounds but it will take far more than that to get back to where they were 4 years ago (hardly Nirvana)  let alone where Cubans aspire  to be in the future. 

Change of strategy perhaps?  

Thinking outside of an embargo, can you come up with ideas of what could be done (non violently) to assist cubans without assisting the cuban govt?

I will throw two out there. 

  • External Internet was talked about July. What happened? It would be a great start. 
  • Provision of special digital offshore bank accounts for Cubans. Both USD and Crypto. 

Let us know your thoughts on how to increase ground floor opportunity while decreasing upstairs control. 

 

 

 

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The Cuban People need to decide enough is enough. I know this sounds harsh, but that's the next step. Its damn clear at this point, Nobody else is going to do it for them. 

I was in contact with half a dozen of my Cuban friends Sunday night and Monday morning. They all gave me roughly the same reason for not marching/even thinking about marching yesterday and their thought process seems to be shared by the majority of their fellow citizens. 

"I Have Too Much to Loss." Was the overwhelming consensus. I think a lot of that comes from generations of having nothing. If you suddenly do find your self in a "better" situation, its hard to spite that for a chance at the unknown. Things are bad down there, but not nearly as bad as the special period(from what I've heard) the Castro's figured out a way to string the people through that. Raul and Diaz Canel are no Fidel, but they also have a much smaller hill to climb. 

We've called it "letting off the steam" but the current regime has been masterful in giving people just enough, just barely enough, that they don't want to give it up. A long as they keep having success there, I dont expect  any real Change. 

Raul Dying may, eventually, be the catalyst for complete change. But he's done a very good job passing the power from Fidel, through to the military. SO if we do see any major change after his death, my money is on military coop, not an organic democracy.  

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The best thing that could happen is for them to become as self-sufficient as possible. 

Can't believe they aren't able to grow enough food for the population with all the fertile farmland laying fallow although I'm sure the government would figure out how to get their rake.

I've heard there's plenty of oil offshore that could be drilled for. Again, government rake plus I'm pretty sure they don't have the equipment necessary.

Peaceful overthrow if that's possible is probably their best option.....

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15 hours ago, El Presidente said:

With the Nov 15 protests in Havana quashed by authorities, it must be a truly demoralising time for those seeking, hoping, begging for change.

The leader and promoter of the Nov. 15th protests, Yunior Garcia was reported to be blocked in his home Monday and then disappeared Tuesday.

He just landed in Madrid with his wife on a tourist visa ....

https://www.14ymedio.com/cuba/dramaturgo-Yunior-Garcia-Aguilera-Espana_0_3206079367.html

 

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23 minutes ago, Nino said:

The leader and promoter of the Nov. 15th protests, Yunior Garcia was reported to be blocked in his home Monday and then disappeared Tuesday.

He just landed in Madrid with his wife on a tourist visa ....

https://www.14ymedio.com/cuba/dramaturgo-Yunior-Garcia-Aguilera-Espana_0_3206079367.html

 

That's a big loss to the movement, but I'm glad they didn't "disappear" him. They had his house surrounded by sunrise on Sunday morning. As you mentioned in your first post, the "brain drain" continues. I don't see how/why he would return any time soon. 

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15 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

That's a big loss to the movement, but I'm glad they didn't "disappear" him. They had his house surrounded by sunrise on Sunday morning. As you mentioned in your first post, the "brain drain" continues. I don't see how/why he would return any time soon. 

Another victory for the regime. Divide, opress and conquer. The San Isidro Movement disolved itself in a similar fashion a few months ago ...

There is no organized opposition in Cuba and now the regime can look ahead to another 5 to 10 years of "silence in the sheep farm" if the tourist re-opening goes half well and Covid decreases ...

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41 minutes ago, therealrsr said:

Empower them with information and things will crumble quickly.

My view is that they have ALL the information they want and need in Cuba - no lack of that and/or of Internet access ( paid for by the ones who left or friends ).- seems like they lack backbone and organized determination.

The Cuban gvmt : Give them an exit visa and protests will crumble quickly.

 

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11 minutes ago, Nino said:

My view is that they have ALL the information they want and need in Cuba - no lack of that and/or of Internet access ( paid for by the ones who left or friends ).- seems like they lack backbone and organized determination.

The Cuban gvmt : Give them an exit visa and protests will crumble quickly.

 

I know where you are coming from Nino. Cory has expressed similar thoughts and to be honest there is more than  a touch of frustration within myself. 

A couple of deep breaths and I remind myself that I don't walk in their shoes.  

Leadership, communication, resources is key.  Leadership is up to them. We saw how effective shutting down internet access was in July. Remove that block. Dedicated cuba specific digital/bank account resources offshore allows a building of a wealth base outsdide of govt eyes. I am more than happy to pay for my functions, humidors, dinners/lunches, driver, tips into an offshore digital account.  some may say that some cubans already do that. true, but the vast majority of Cubans (particularly those in small enterprise) would not meet global KYC (know your client) banking requirements.

They are some simple tools that are designed to lift people not squash them.  There will be others. The rest is up to them. 

 

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A couple of deep breaths and somehow it keeps repeating the feelings I've had over the decades that I have been visiting the island.

All prima-donna this side or the other but only one side moves - the one in power. The other is left to rot.

20 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

Leadership, communication, resources is key.  Leadership is up to them. We saw how effective shutting down internet access was in July. Remove that block. Dedicated cuba specific digital/bank account resources offshore allows a building of a wealth base outsdide of govt eyes. I am more than happy to pay for my functions, humidors, dinners/lunches, driver, tips into an offshore digital account.  some may say that some cubans already do that. true, but the vast majority of Cubans (particularly those in small enterprise) would not meet global KYC (know your client) banking requirements.

They are some simple tools that are designed to lift people not squash them.  There will be others. The rest is up to them. 

That is ALL fine & dandy in OUR world and our lingo. Not so much in a Cuban "normal" context I'm afraid. The ones that dig those words are the ones long gone from Cuba living in a different system ....

Simple tools for you & me - but impossible for the average Cuban Jose.

 

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Just now, Nino said:

A couple of deep breaths and somehow it keeps repeating the feelings I've had over the decades that I have been visiting the island.

All prima-donna this side or the other but only one side moves - the one in power. The other is left to rot.

That is ALL fine & dandy in OUR world and our lingo. Not so much in a Cuban "normal" context I'm afraid. The ones that dig those words are the ones long gone from Cuba living in a different system ....

Simple tools for you & me - but impossible for the average Cuban Jose.

 

I think we both know a "Jose" who would love such resources :lol3:

The "way out" will come from the educated/motivated. The system as it stands now encourages cubans having a foot in both camps (onshore/offshore) because it suits the government financially. use it against them.   Yes they are not the "average Jose" but change/leadership, if it is ever to come, will likely come from that group. 

You can only provide the seeds. They need to till the land and nurture the crop. 

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6 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

I think we both know a "Jose" who would love such resources :lol3:

The "way out" will come from the educated/motivated. The system as it stands now encourages cubans having a foot in both camps (onshore/offshore) because it suits the government financially. use it against them.   Yes they are not the "average Jose" but change/leadership, if it is ever to come, will likely come from that group. 

You can only provide the seeds. They need to till the land and nurture the crop. 

Yes, we do 🙂

Problem with that Jose, as I see it, it's that he belongs to the majority class that Cory mentioned who says : I have too much to lose if I protest in the street so I will sit on my bum and let others take the hot potato, after all I have means, a car or a Casa maybe, I am on Facebook and I have dollar paying clients and I can avoid all this by just sticking to the usual tourist BS banter.

The "way out" will come from East German/Polish or even Romanian style backbone style seeds back early 90*s.

I am done with "providing seeds" as I see a desert land and a "wash me but don't make me wet" attitude in the Cubans generally.

Just my 2 centavos

 

 

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9 hours ago, El Presidente said:

The "way out" will come from the educated/motivated.

Or when they are finally desperate enough.  I’m surprised they aren’t there yet, but when people start starving they’ll have nothing left to lose.  Sadly it may require that before there’s further momentum.  

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12 hours ago, Dr vonPuffenberg said:

Looks like it requires an antenna to be mounted on the building.

Good luck with that. That antenna would be gone that afternoon with whoever was involved in the gulag. 

That's the real challenge--how to deliver internet without any hardware on the ground. As of now the technology doesn't exist. 

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13 hours ago, therealrsr said:

I defer to your local knowledge, but I also see preemptive action against 2 days ago and doubt the absolute nature of your statement.

The nature of a dictatorship tends to be absolute, black or white, for it or against it.

Here is a Cuban reader commenting on 14yMedio on the guy's sudden departure for Spain that reflects what I have read from other Cubans disappointed and feeling betrayed by such "opposition" leaders that can't stand the heat. Again, the regime has won a big victory.

The protest slogan "Patria y Vida" has turned into the joke "Patria y Visa" now ...

 

https://www.14ymedio.com/cuba/Yunior-Garcia-Aguilera-Madrid-gobierno_0_3206679308.html

I liked Yunior. He had good arguments, and he knew how to express them clearly and forcefully. As he himself already stated, he left of his own free will.

What did Yunior expect? That they weren't going to harass him? That they were not going to do acts of repudiation? The truth is as he himself said it, that he was not prepared. The truth is that he cracked as soon as it got tough.

At first he was successful. He calls for a march that everyone knew was not going to take place, but that forced the dictatorship to show itself as it is. Yunior destroyed everything he had achieved by leaving Cuba voluntarily. They are not going to let him back into Cuba anymore. That he knows.
In Spain he will achieve the same as Eliécer Ávila in the United States, absolutely nothing.

Those Cubans who were still in the middle, who were slowly beginning to lose their fear and were listening to him, will now accept the official version of the government that Yunior was one more shameless scam. Without a visible face and the main figure of it, Archipelago will languish and be forgotten like many other platforms. The liberation of Cuba was set back a lot by this.

PS - And here a commentary from Cubanet on the same subject :

https://www.cubanet.org/destacados/archipielago-se-fragmenta-pero-el-regimen-esta-solo-y-desesperado/

Perhaps the real shock occurred when learning of the premeditated exile of Yunior García, who certainly should not be judged for having broken down, as he himself admitted. However, the secrecy with which he put in the way while several members of the Archipelago suffered harassment or arrest, does not play in favor of a man who on numerous occasions spoke of honor and the importance of being consistent.

It is unreasonable to want to shake off the responsibility of leadership after having become the most prolific speaker and the most visible face of the Archipelago. It is not coherent to say "I am not a politician" after months of articulating an essentially political discourse, which attracted the interest of all the media and catalyzed the expectations of thousands of Cubans. It is not decent to summon and then disappear, leaving your brothers of cause troubled and demanding proof of life while a visa helped you get out of this hell.

 

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There really are two separate groups of Cuban's right now. The ones with the means and Knowledge to push for this change (those with "too much to lose" to risk participating in protests) and the majority of the Cuban people. The majority, mostly outside of Havana, mostly in very rural areas dont have the same education, means or access to outside capital/information as the other group.  One group is able, but unwilling. The other seems willing, but is unable. 

Nino's post above about Yunior Garcia really drives this point home. As far as Cubans go, his life was pretty good, as soon as the Government made him even slightly uncomfortable, he took the Visa and ran. Its very easy for me to say this with my ass sitting in a tub of butter, but he ended up doing more harm then good. The Cuban government has thoroughly and completely crushed this latest round of "organization"  

Fidel didn't earn the cache he did by quitting when it got tough. The next "revolutionary"  is going to have to suffer at least as much as he did, if not more, to break the spell that he still has on the island. That isn't going to happen with words and plane tickets. 

To all those crowing about the lack of satellite internet service, let me provide some details. I work for one of the largest satellite ISP's on the planet, so I can provide some more information. 

Cruise ships in the Caribbean are (or where before the pandemic) one of the most lucrative potential clients for a Satellite based ISP. There is also lots of airline traffic over the Caribbean. Because of these reasons, the entire Caribbean is saturated with satellite internet coverage. Literally dozens of satellites from a half dozen different companies are set up, today, to provide high speed internet to the entire island. And because of the pandemic, most of those satellites have plenty of capacity to spare. We don't have to wait years for Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos to figure out whos dick is bigger, the technology to break the "Information Embargo" exists and has existed for years.  

The problem with this is the Cuban Governments laws and the citizens unwillingness to break them. I may or may not know someone who has offered to import ground equipment, one or two pieces at a time and set it all up for free. But that person hasn't found a single taker, because if they get caught with a satellite communication device, they very well could "disappear". It would also be a huge risk on the importers end, even in parts and pieces, over several trips. Customs forms explicitly state the illegality of importing any radio communication device or parts/pieces of communications devices. Cruise ships are even required to shut off their internet before they enter into Cuban territorial waters, just in case. 

So we have the same problem, the people with access to a stupid foreigner willing to risk their ass to help aren't willing to risk their own asses. The farmer/sugar cane plant worker/poor laborer who is fed up and willing to sacrifice for change is largely cutoff from the same opportunities. 

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Good post Cory. 

You can only be willing to provide the tools. The rest is up to them. I remain against putting programs in place that have the cuban on the street as an acceptable bycatch.  

Embargo or no embargo, it doesn't look like this mob is going anywhere. 

simplification I know but the last successful "uprising" was rural based led by passionate university educated intellectuals fueling rural discontent at political/ corporate excesses in Havana. 

 

 

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Just read this article https://www.jacobinmag.com/2021/11/cuba-us-protests-reform-revolution-diaz-canel

 from a few days ago and saw this quote. Looks like a pretty left-leaning magazine--Jacobin--but it might give some insight into the thinking of the average Cuban:

“I was out protesting on July 11,” a young mother in Old Havana told me. “But since then, I’ve been weighing the pros and cons. The food situation here is terrible — we have to stand in lines for everything. On the other hand, we are safe. People don’t have guns and go around killing each other; the police don’t shoot people; we don’t have to worry about our children when they are outside playing, and they get a good education for free. If this government really collapsed, I’m afraid we might lose more than we gain.”

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