NRL Tipping Comp - Weekly Round Up


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There are only 10 of us involved but seeing as we have a comp running I'm going to do a weekly review of each round...

As usual, I've come out of the gates like mud. 3 from 8.  And I am a solid 78674/104157 overall. Long season ahead. I'm pacing myself.

To the games...

Storm v Broncos - typical Storm. Organised, solid, low error rate, class where it counts. So hard to beat at home - especially in R1! Broncos lacked direction and cohesion. That will come. And they were severely hampered by James Roberts early departure. Messed with their structure and interchange. Expect Broncos to improve this week at home to the Cowboys - they'll need to! Matt Lodge to miss two weeks for that stupid, reckless dive at Munster's legs. Young Flegler should get more minutes as a result - he was very impressive in his short stint on the paddock. 

Knights v Sharks - the Knights won, but they weren't super convincing. Blustery conditions in Newcastle. Sharks had an error-riddled first half. Knights bombed a couple of tries. Ponga very quiet, still settling in at 5/8. Shaun Johnson similar for his new club. A dodgy penalty try to the Sharks and an intercept try to the Knights to decide the game. Probably a fitting result. Expect both teams to improve in R2. 

Roosters v Rabbitohs - in a break with tradition, I tipped the Roosters against my beloved Rabbits, letting head rule the heart for once. Was always going to backfire. Still, I'll take the win. And, I have to say, I don't think I've ever seen the Rabbits exude so much relaxed confidence. I'll give Bennett that - he has a good mood in the camp, no doubt. I've seen them beat the Roosters in R1 before, but they always looked like they were at 110% to do so. Here they looked like they had gears to spare. Of course, the Roosters did, too, as Robinson will have planned a slower uptake into the season given their WCC commitments and lack of trials. In sum, both teams will improve considerably and both look like genuine title contenders early on. 

Warriors v Bulldogs - Warriors great. Bulldogs abject. The question is how good were the Warriors given the dogs were so bad? I think the Warriors again have top 4 potential. We'll need to see them against much tougher opponents. They face Wests this week, away, so that'll be a better gauge. Manly the following week, and it looks like they'll battle Bulldogs for the wooden spoon most likely... so Warriors could be table-toppers for a while. Will they go walkabout and have the wheels fall off as usual? Time will tell. 

Tigers v Sea Eagles - poured rain for much of this game. Manly bombed a certain try that might well have won them the game, as from that point on the Tigers owned it. Manly missed Tom Trbojevic badly, but they still seem very thin in depth across the board. And Fonua-Blake, one of their best, will likely miss two weeks for the same bonehead offence as Lodge. There is upside for the Tigers, for sure, and they'll be a tough nut to crack for any team. Manly might well be on their way to their first wooden spoon ever. Wouldn't that be delicious! 

Cowboys v Dragons - again, more rain! A deluge. A lot of these reviews could be thrown out the window on a dry track. It'll be interesting to see how the form guide shapes up after some dry weather footy. To be honest, the Cowboys looked like dead ducks after 20 mins. I thought they looked very fatigued. But with a second wind and an absolutely outstanding, wrecking-ball display from Taumalolo (running for over 300m!!) the Cows were too good in the end. If their forwards stay fit and mobile enough, the Cows are a super scary prospect for any team. Ball play was the major concern for the Dragons, as star forward Tyson Frizell was hospitalised with a ruptured testicle. (Groan). Mother of God. The poor bugger. 

Panthers v Eels - and last year's wooden spooners showed some great promise in winning this one. They had Jennings sin-binned for 10 minutes late in the game for a high tackle, too... which was a terrible call in my opinion. Penalise and put him on report. End of story. If every player who makes a high shot gets 10 in the bin it'll be a farce. Yes, the player tackled was head-binned and looked concussed, but you can't prove intent in that sort of instance. It was a good shot gone wrong, nothing more. As to the Panthers, I got the feeling they have an attidude problem (an on the field one this time), as they didn't seem to like Parra sticking it to them--as if they deserved to win for just showing up. They might be a bit caught up in their own hype, as many have them as Premiership winners this year. Still, they're stacked with talent and will improve. Adding to the impressiveness of their win, the Eels suffered the major loss of Nathan Brown with a torn pec, early in the contest. Still, they too should do well this year if they can keep up the intensity and consistency they showed in this game. Moses and debutant Brown were also highlights for them. 

Titans v Raiders. Again, a deluge. Hard to line too much up here. Except for how unlucky the Titans seem to be. They lost prime playmaker Ash Taylor before the game and halves partner Tyrone Roberts not far into the match. Devastating stuff. Canberra looked much more steeled in defence, which was apparently their off-season focus. That said, miserable attacking conditions. A much better test this week against the Storm... hopefully without an actual storm to hamper attacking prospects. Englishman John Bateman looks a great buy for the Raiders. A real workhorse in defence and light on his feet in attack. Gold Coast must surely give AJ Brimson a start now (for mine, he should have been starting anyway!), as he was the only bright spot on a gloomy day for the Titans. Perhaps that's their silver lining out of the injuries suffered. 

To the table...

I think we may have a couple of US players on top of the table? Correct me if I'm wrong. Ladder looks like this after round 1...Screen Shot 2019-03-18 at 9.31.05 am.png

 

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john S was keen to join. you might be able to guide him through? 

 

i think you vastly over-assess the loss of roberts. sure, he has speed, but staggs played, nothing wrong. he is a class act and a future long term starter. it was not lost there. some silly acts, a shocking miss by darius and a complete failure to organise and threaten by the halves. kodi for the bench for me!

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Week 2 Round-Up.

My form continues to be robustly poor. A Raiders upset? Really, what was I thinking? Congrats to GolfDude who remains top. (I'm not sure who that is?)

Anyhoo... to the matches. 

Dragons v Rabbitohs. A 15-minute blitz attack from Souths to start the 2nd half and this one went from enthralling to all over very quickly. Short turn around for the Dragons after a tough game in Townsville a possible reason for 2nd half staggers. And, of course, they are missing big-name personnel. But I think they have deeper problems in the way they're tinkering with the spine of the team... how much longer will they give it to gel? Broncos at Suncorp for them this week!

Raiders v Storm. Storm pretty clinical again. Though the Raiders, at times, didn't offer much anything close to top-shelf resistance. I still think the Raiders have a lot of improvement in them, however. You just have to be on your game 100% when it comes to facing the Storm... and even then... 

Broncos v Cowboys. A glimpse of what the Broncos are becoming. Scary. Pangai Jr winning the wrecking ball of the week award. Literally a smash and grab job as he nicked that title from Taumalolo. And I believe Pangai Jr is Blues eligible (Very happy to learn that!) Cowboys hopes dashed by Taumalolo loss and Morgan seemed to be carrying an injury all game, too. Still, the Broncos were in another league. Young Flegler was super impressive. When Haas is back, presuming he gets an interchange spot straight away, these two could form a fearsome threat off the bench. Their halves still have question marks over them when it comes to elite game management, but with the forwards firing like that... yikes! Any halves duo would be fortunate to be on the back of such. St George have it all to look forward to this week at Suncorp! Broncos with 2018 finals thrashing revenge on their minds... 0-3 for the Dragons looming?

Sharks v Titans. Titans had three tries disallowed in this one. Two of them very early on. So they threatened, but ultimately they didn't look anywhere near the complete item for the full 80mins. They're missing both first-choice halves, so not that surprising. The forward pack is a pretty formidable group and they have genuine backline talent, but they look way off top 8 material at this point. Sharks were solid but not great. Young Briton Nikora had another gem of a game. He's a workhorse and an attacking threat. Looks like future rep material. 

Knights v Panthers. I saw a Panthers win coming here, but I went with the Knights to edge it due to home ground advantage. I still don't rate Nathan Brown as a coach. I think this roster would be killing it under one of the elites: a Bellamy or a Bennett. A good example was the Panthers try scored by Fisher-Harris (just on that, has there ever been a team with more hyphenated surnames? Campbell-Gillard, Fisher-Harris, 2x Watene-Zelezniak (I had to Google the spelling)... I feel like there might be another one... what's going on out there?) which was a cracker of a move initiated by James Maloney--in contrast, the Knights showed no invention like that. And they need that style of invention and execution to give Ponga and co their full expression. I think Newcastle could win the comp... but not with this coach. Or is it just sour grapes from me not picking them?... hard to tell.

Manly v Roosters. Horrendous conditions. Massive downpour. Lottoland cattle track. And pretty horrendous form from the Sea Eagles. In complete contrast, an absolute Master Class from Luke Keary who produced something pretty special in the conditions. No Cronk, no Friend, no worries. Give him the #6 Blues jersey now.

Bulldogs v Eels. Bulldogs actually dominated the first 20mins, then they fell apart. Blake Ferguson had an outstanding game, but again, the Dogs were woeful for most of the game. Firming all the time as wooden spoon favourites as is Dean Pay for first coach sacked. 

Tigers v Warriors. Tigers renowned fight on show here. Madge has them attacking much better, too. Robbie Farah turning back the clock again with a standout performance. Warriors were less than impressive. They competed, but ultimately lacked the fight and will to win of the Tigers. Not unusual for the Warriors to struggle on the road. Predicting a big turnaround for them as they host an away game against Manly in Christchurch this weekend. Should be an emotion-packed event. 

To the table...

Golf Dude, Ben, and Ken setting the pace. And Phil from Chicago right on their heels! How good am I going? An American ahead of me and @JohnS who started a week after me is equal on points. Mother of God. Look out for a Bernborough finish starting around July from me! Or look for me still coming in 2020... :yes:

Screen Shot 2019-03-26 at 7.51.30 am.png

 

 

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Just now, Fuzz said:

Did you wake up grumpy today?

He is at the beach....how grumpy can he be at 8:15 am ;)

Ken would be returning from  a swim in the surf  and off for a yoga session on the sand

 

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9 minutes ago, MoeFOH said:

Broncos v Cowboys. A glimpse of what the Broncos are becoming. Scary. Pangai Jr winning the wrecking ball of the week award. Literally a smash and grab job as he nicked that title from Taumalolo. And I believe Pangai Jr is Blues eligible (Very happy to learn that!) Cowboys hopes dashed by Taumalolo loss and Morgan seemed to be carrying an injury all game, too. Still, the Broncos were in another league. Young Flegler was super impressive. When Haas is back, presuming he gets an interchange spot straight away, these two could form a fearsome threat off the bench. Their halves still have question marks over them when it comes to elite game management, but with the forwards firing like that... yikes! Any halves duo would be fortunate to be on the back of such. St George have it all to look forward to this week at Suncorp! Broncos with 2018 finals thrashing revenge on their minds... 0-3 for the Dragons looming?

Manly v Roosters. Horrendous conditions. Massive downpour. Lottoland cattle track. And pretty horrendous form from the Sea Eagles. In complete contrast, an absolute Master Class from Luke Keary who produced something pretty special in the conditions. No Cronk, no Friend, no worries. Give him the #6 Blues jersey now.

 

couple of points

keary is a qlder. grew up here. wants to play for us. and the corrupt and disgraceful nsw admin have twisted the rules to insist he play for them (apparently his mother received a letter from nsw when she was pregnant and so he qualified for them or some such crap). shame, nsw, shame.

more seriously, yes, pangai and haas, both nsw. if we had a burst of form, we might get decimated by origin selections - but for nsw, not qld. the horror. pangai, haas, roberts, bird, lodge. 

i read something on that broncs v cowboys game. pangai was massive. what a performance. but, if you exclude fensom who did not play much, pangai had the worst stats of any broncs forward. they all had more runs, more metres and more tackles. shows how deceiving stats can be. he was awesome. 

the funny thing about flegler, who has been brilliant, is that he was second choice young prop to come in but he was so good pre-season, he pushed carrigan to 2nd spot. carrigan was supposed to be the young teenage sensation. pre season, lockyer picked him to be the find of the year or rookie of the year or something. now he can't even get on the bench. he was the kid who knocked back the multi-mill contract from the bulldogs to stay with the broncs. now can't get a look in. toss him in with haas, pangai, fifita, joe o, lodge, sua, flegler and you have a sensational bunch of youngsters. 

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7 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

Ken/Fuzz can you explain the table?

Is anyone as confused as I am on round 2 margin/total margin etc?

3. Margin Prediction

As part of your tipping you must submit your Predicted Margin for one match a Round (Tipping) and the match of your Streak tip (Streak), by nominating a points margin for that match. The difference between your Predicted Margin and the actual match margin will be your Round Margin Score and will be added to your Accumulated Margin Score every Round.

 

  • Does not enter a Margin for a Margin Match, then the Eligible Entrant’s Margin will be the average Margin of all the Margins submitted by Eligible Entrant’s in that Round.
  • Margins are taken into account when two or more Eligible Entrants have the same Score. The number of points between an Eligible Entrant’s Margin prediction and the actual Margin for a Match will form the basis of the Eligible Entrant’s Margin Score. The Margin Score will accumulate each week.
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3 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

He is at the beach....how grumpy can he be at 8:15 am ;)

Ken would be returning from  a swim in the surf  and off for a yoga session on the sand

 

actually, this morning was the first morning i have not got up to do the early morning beach walk. and what happens? i get woken at 6am by someone wanting to do a video. no names but.... so i did my walk. 

and fuzz, grumpy is still asleep. shall i get him to ring you when he is up?

rob, those margins are when you pick a margin for a winning team. it is done in case a tiebreaker is needed at the end of the season. 

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Just now, MoeFOH said:

Don't start that. GI should have been a Blue. And, yes, you can have Sterlo. Goes on and on... 

GI bleeds maroon! sterling, steve rogers, so many. 

the only one i think was a bit dodgy was wayne bartrim who one will concede was born northern nsw and had bugger all to do with qld but when the super league split happened and we were desperate for a team in 95 (still possibly the greatest series ever with the hot fave being thumped 3-0). fatty could not find a hooker in any club. was running through players. zero. no one. someone said, 'what about bartrim?'. no, northern nsw. 

fatty's response? "close enough"! 

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14 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

fatty's response? "close enough"! 

Ha ha... 

I've often wondered why they don't just change it to the place of birth rather than, what is it, first club game of a certain status? Seems simpler and purer to the theme. Sure, there'd be some born in the other state who moved very early in life and probably feel more allegiance to the place they grew up, but probably most would be homegrown. 

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2 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

nice work, ben. 

Ken that's insulting. I would have done a much better job

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Week 3 Round-Up

Great round of footy... Exciting games and some blowout results made for an interesting mix. 

Broncos v Dragons. An exciting game and pretty much a shock result. Beforehand, it was very hard to see the Dragons winning this one. The Broncos looked a bit flat after their turbo-charged efforts against the Cowboys. A vastly different atmosphere in this one, too. The Dragons now have their spine experiment seemingly solved for them by the injury to Widdop. It may actually benefit them with Dufty likely to come in and the halves and hooker able to stay settled in their starting spots. 

Raiders v Knights. Raiders were very good in this one. I thought a lot better than the scoreline indicated. I think they're a top 8 team this year. John Bateman superb again. The Knights' Ponga at 5/8 experiment is over. He's back to fullback this week. Probably couldn't come soon enough for Knights' fans. I think they'll improve by default. Although, the 5/8 replacement remains a question mark. 

Eels v Roosters. Great game! Except for the result. Even though I tipped them, never like to see the chooks win. Eels definitely underlined how they've improved over the off-season. They'll be a tough nut for most sides to crack this year. Roosters look like they'll be further depleted this week -- Friend and Waerea-Hargreaves injured. However, Cronk may be back this week (are they even missing him that much? Keary in great form). Might be that the Broncos have a real chance to roll them if they're on their game like they were against the Cowboys. 

Sea Eagles v Warriors. Warriors? What warriors? A disgraceful display from them. No energy, no mongrel, no nothing... Gatton U/12s would have run through them. Hard to say, as it often is with them, what went awry here. But they have alarming issues to sort out, and quickly. The Titans, who are 0-3, should be heading to Auckland desperate to avoid another loss. Manly's performance--put a line through it till they face sterner opponents. Souths should provide a much better gauge this week.

Cowboys v Sharks. They copped a couple of injuries out of this game - Gallen and Moylan - but the Sharks are going great guns. And young gun Bronson Xerri may get his first crack at the NRL this week due to Moylan's injury. This kid is the real deal. A very exciting prospect. The Cowboys... well, I think Taumalolo is going to have that missing talisman effect. They might struggle till he returns. 

Panthers v Storm. Panthers are another team that have festering issues. If the Tigers upend them this weekend, the fallout will make for more than intriguing viewing, given coach-gate last year. They miss Kikau. But that hardly explains the whole story. Attitude is the issue. I saw it in their loss to Parra. Is it related to Cleary? Time will tell. The Storm - same as always. You can tip them if they start the game with 10 men. Munster - a genius. He's scary good. 

Tigers v Bulldogs. Tigers went flat. It's so hard to stay "up" week in, week out, in this comp. And the Bulldogs brought it this week. Pay's axings paid dividends and made you wonder why the hell he hadn't gone with those players from the get-go. Especially Martin and Meaney. The Tigers, for me, are still a formidable outfit this year. The dogs need to prove themselves by backing up that performance this week. Toughest test possible served up - Storm at home. 

Rabbitohs v Titans. A bit of a nothing affair here. Souths looked like they were cruising and only really doing enough just to win. Titans threw a bit of caution to the wind attacking-wise and looked better for it, but they ultimately were outclassed. Souths, however, suffered a few injury concerns: a big shame that in-form young gun Braidon Burns tore his hamstring and looks to be sidelined for a month or more. And Cody Walker is nursing a shoulder injury. Souths' depth may be tested in the coming weeks, especially if GI doesn't return to the field, or return to form, quickly. 

To the table...

GolfDude still setting the pace. Ben hot on his heels. Chicago Phil might be coming back to the pack. And for the first time, I'm heading north on the table. Plenty of time for me to rectify that. Rob, by the looks of it, has also decided to pace himself, time his run. 

Screen Shot 2019-04-02 at 12.21.19 pm.png

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Week 4 Round-Up

An exciting round of footy--three golden point games! Storm emerge the only unbeaten team after 4 rounds. Don't those guys ever get bored of being so methodically good... Jesus...

Roosters v Broncos. Like a complete knucklehead, I tipped the Broncos here. The Roosters were good, but the Broncos were just awful. Right now, they've got big on-field and off-field issues to remedy if they're to steady the ship and be any sort of genuine finals contender. A gritty Tigers team visit Suncorp this week, which will be no easy assignment. 

Warriors v Titans. Warriors back in form, but again the opposition was poor and they were at home. Reminiscent of game 1 v the Bulldogs. Titans 0-4, and not looking like cracking their duck at the moment. 

Panthers v Tigers. A thriller that went the fairytale way for the Cleary clan. But the Tigers, who missed several sitters of penalty kicks, should have won this one. The Panthers are far from out of the woods just yet. They face the Titans away, this week, and they'll be desperate not to go 0-5. 

Sea Eagles v Rabbits. Bit of a similar story here. Rabbits missed a couple of 2-pointers that Reynolds usually eats for breakfast, and he missed the first field goal attempt to win the game. Those misses came back to haunt them. Cherry-Evans with the clutch winner. But again, like the Tigers the night before, the Rabbits should have been more ruthless in putting away an opponent they had the better of. Tom Turbo out for 2 months with the hammy gone again. Did they rush him back? Looks that way. Bummer for NSW. He was one of our best last year. 

Raiders v Cowboys. Raiders again looked very good. Top 4 stuff. Cowboys are struggling for answers. More line-up shuffles this week. 

Parramatta v Sharks. Eels again showing great attitude and form to go with. Sharks hit by injuries, especially the last-minute withdrawal of Shaun Johnson. Young gun Xerri showing glimpses of what all the hype is about. The belief is evident with Parra, they should continue to do well. Sharks might struggle with mounting injury toll. 

Storm v Bulldogs. What a turnaround the Bulldogs have exhibited in the last two weeks since Dean Pay rang the line-up changes. Even though I tipped the Storm, I was desperately disappointed that the Dogs didn't get the biscuits here. I thought they were the better team and deserved to win. Their tactics were very clever to spread the ball to the edges and take the Storm's wrestle and strong middle out of the game. Very refreshing to see! Watch for other teams to perhaps emulate this. 

Knights v Dragons. Another golden point game. Corey Norman the hero again for the Dragons. And another loss for the much-hyped Knights. They're 1-3 and they've played three games at home. Ponga back to fullback was an obvious success. Duh. But the Knights just need to start showing more, and in a hurry. For the Dragons, Frizell came back well, but they lost Sims with a broken arm... of which he played 20mins of the game carrying... wtf?

To the table...

GolfDude still killing it! Fuzz and Chucko8 moving on up...

Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 7.15.08 am.png

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Week 5 Round-Up

I've gone to a version of Hemingway's six-word story to format this summary. Call it lazy, if you will; I call it efficiency-based practices. :yes:

Broncos v Tigers. Broncos need new halves combo. Now. 

Titans v Panthers. Who was worse? Hard to know. 

Cowboys v Storm. When does Jason Taumalolo get back?

Rabbitohs v Warriors. Can Walker score four per week?

Knights v Sea Eagles. Nathan Brown still has a job?

Sharks v Roosters. The Keary and Latrell Trickshot Show.

Dragons v Bulldogs. Round One Bulldogs show up again. 

Raiders v Eels. Canberra's a cold place. 19 blot. 

To the table...

Golf Dude and Ben are starting to sneak away from the pack. The rest of us need to lift. I need to stop tipping the Broncos. I'm off them this week. They'll probably win by 40. 

Screen Shot 2019-04-17 at 9.32.24 am.png

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