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Posted
1 hour ago, Fugu said:

The current HSA policy will lead to more and more cigars not going to "sell". HSA is taking the attention from the solid values and is inevitably going to kill the (concept of) local, the multi-local and the niche-brands (with the exception of Trini perhaps). A marca with one or even two vitolas is practically dead. I guess that's program.With Cohiba and Monte plus RyJ bringing in about half the revenue today (or whatever the current figure may be), tobacco needs to be shifted.

There is one global trait that many people fail to see. 

Bricks and Mortar, retail displays of tobacco worldwide (outside USA)  are shrinking due to legislation. 

Tobacconists who once could carry 25 lines of Cuban cigars are now carrying 7-10

Which of the following would you drop to replace with a SLR Serie A.

Cohiba Robusto, Upmann corona major AT/, Monte 4, Monte 2, Monte Open Regatta/master Tubos,  R&J 1/2/3 tubes, HDM Epi 2 , Partagas D4, Monte Petit Edmundo, Jose Piedra Cremas.      

Now look the tobacconist in the eye and tell him that the SLR SA is going to outsell the one you dropped. 

This is the core of the problem.  Fringe cigars are being squeezed out of the public eye and sales plummet.  You can't devise an advertising campaign to ramp up brand awareness because it is illegal.   

I would guess that 90% of cigar smokers could name only 5-6 brands of cuban cigars. Saint Luis Rey wouldn't be one of them. 

 

 

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I agree.

Um, easy - Open Regatta / Master. Do those actually sell?   This thread needs more pics - an obit if you will:  

Guest Nekhyludov
Posted
35 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

This is the core of the problem.  Fringe cigars are being squeezed out of the public eye and sales plummet.  You can't devise an advertising campaign to ramp up brand awareness because it is illegal.   

This strikes me as both very true, and very depressing.

Posted
1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

There is one global trait that many people fail to see. 

Bricks and Mortar, retail displays of tobacco worldwide (outside USA)  are shrinking due to legislation. 

Tobacconists who once could carry 25 lines of Cuban cigars are now carrying 7-10

Which of the following would you drop to replace with a SLR Serie A.

Cohiba Robusto, Upmann corona major AT/, Monte 4, Monte 2, Monte Open Regatta/master Tubos,  R&J 1/2/3 tubes, HDM Epi 2 , Partagas D4, Monte Petit Edmundo, Jose Piedra Cremas.      

Now look the tobacconist in the eye and tell him that the SLR SA is going to outsell the one you dropped. 

This is the core of the problem.  Fringe cigars are being squeezed out of the public eye and sales plummet.  You can't devise an advertising campaign to ramp up brand awareness because it is illegal.   

I would guess that 90% of cigar smokers could name only 5-6 brands of cuban cigars. Saint Luis Rey wouldn't be one of them. 

OK, so I am a bit dim this morning ....

... but this does not make sense to me.  

Bricks and mortar as points of sale may be shrinking, but doesn't that mean there is *more* scope for online retailers?  If the standard retail model is increasingly no longer a shop with limited retail and storage space but a website and a warehouse, why should there be pressure at all to decrease the model range?    What about the long tail?  

Brand awareness can be a problem ... but what are they doing to address this?  Outright advertising and branded marketing may become illegal everywhere, so where is the push for new ways to inform the customer?  We live in an age where cottage producers in Paraguay can find customers in Finland, and where musicians can bypass the entire recording industry by direct marketing and clever use of the internet ... so why the hell can HSA not put something together to do the same?

I LIKE SLR, dammit.  

 

 

Posted
14 hours ago, Lotusguy said:


Agreed - this is one where it simply didn't sell - last boxes I saw were 2011 BD and they were just sitting.

Hopefully they have plans to replace it with something good, the only down side to that is its gonna be a 54+ RG i imagine!

Posted

i'm glad i didn't go through my 2014 box of these in a hurry. I still got just about a full box of these left. I guess i'll take my time saying goodbuy for many years! ;-)

Posted
3 hours ago, godpheonix said:

Hopefully they have plans to replace it with something good, the only down side to that is its gonna be a 54+ RG i imagine!

Unfortunately you're probably right. I still don't get the big ring gauge trend. Gimme some form of corona or a lancero any day. 

Posted
47 minutes ago, fitzy said:

Unfortunately you're probably right. I still don't get the big ring gauge trend. Gimme some form of corona or a lancero any day. 

its was selling the most from what we hear. so you take the SLR serie A, which does not sell, makes sense for them to drop it and start making a SLR size that will. now why do most cigars buyers want these Monsters? That i really can't say but as we've heard from Rob on some of the FOH videos...hates the big RGs but loves the flavors! so there is something that seems positive about them.

Posted
On 3/8/2018 at 3:30 PM, El Presidente said:

There is one global trait that many people fail to see. 

Bricks and Mortar, retail displays of tobacco worldwide (outside USA)  are shrinking due to legislation. 

Tobacconists who once could carry 25 lines of Cuban cigars are now carrying 7-10

Which of the following would you drop to replace with a SLR Serie A.

Cohiba Robusto, Upmann corona major AT/, Monte 4, Monte 2, Monte Open Regatta/master Tubos,  R&J 1/2/3 tubes, HDM Epi 2 , Partagas D4, Monte Petit Edmundo, Jose Piedra Cremas.      

Now look the tobacconist in the eye and tell him that the SLR SA is going to outsell the one you dropped. 

This is the core of the problem.  Fringe cigars are being squeezed out of the public eye and sales plummet.  You can't devise an advertising campaign to ramp up brand awareness because it is illegal.   

I would guess that 90% of cigar smokers could name only 5-6 brands of cuban cigars. Saint Luis Rey wouldn't be one of them. 

 

 

...sad, but true!

Posted

In a recent poll (just a question asked) on a private forum; what happened to your interest in the Cuban cigar, many seasoned smokers just don't really think that Tabacuba has their interests at heart anymore. I am one such smoker!

The trend market is fickle. It seems better to me to divide up the market and attempt to land a large percentage interested, just allocate resources accordingly.

The Cuban cigar will run out of traditions and traditional cigars in very short order. They have allowed there position (due to their own mismanagement) to be squandered away by competitors making more exciting cigars. I have always thought that there was room for both. The public is convinced that there is not, perhaps a credit to them, or people not understanding that we are smoking a compressed weed, and not magic dust...

Selling less for more is great as long as it lasts. Higher prices, less cigars means less smokers, leading to less cigars, to less smokers... to no cigars!

Instead of broadening a market segment, they have allowed themselves to be pushed into oblivion by competition and governments. The companies with the broadest market segment will inherit the bulk of this market. It is not Tabacuba! There will always be the big dollar Beanie Baby collector. What a joke on them when they find out that the cigars that cost them so much does not taste better than your average PC! But they are not buying them to smoke now are they? A cigar unsmoked is a waste of tobacco! MHO. But I am not buying 300K cigars.

"Let them eat cake..." Let them smoke Cohiba! Same mindset... 

Soap box kicked over... Rant done!

-Piggy

Posted

Piggy, 

The flipside :D

 

 

In a recent poll (just a question asked) on a private forum; what happened to your interest in the Cuban cigar, many seasoned smokers just don't really think that Tabacuba has their interests at heart anymore. I am one such smoker!

This has been going on since 1998. 20 years. They couldn't give a rats about you or I. They never did. 

The trend market is fickle. It seems better to me to divide up the market and attempt to land a large percentage interested, just allocate resources accordingly.

The trend has been going on 20 years as well.  it is a nice "fickle" market to milk. 

The Cuban cigar will run out of traditions and traditional cigars in very short order. They have allowed there position (due to their own mismanagement) to be squandered away by competitors making more exciting cigars. I have always thought that there was room for both. The public is convinced that there is not, perhaps a credit to them, or people not understanding that we are smoking a compressed weed, and not magic dust...

They just had a record revenue year in a situation of poor supply. 

Selling less for more is great as long as it lasts. Higher prices, less cigars means less smokers, leading to less cigars, to less smokers... to no cigars!

Has been going on since 2000. New markets. New smokers. Different demographics.  More new cigar smokers in the new markets than the existing ones 

Instead of broadening a market segment, they have allowed themselves to be pushed into oblivion by competition and governments. The companies with the broadest market segment will inherit the bulk of this market. It is not Tabacuba!

 Without advertising (as it is illegal) the existing status quo stands in almost very part of the world bar the US.  If an NC brand is not outside of the US now, it is unlikely to find shelf space in the future. The game is over.  In terms of segment control, Outside of the USA it is about the Cohiba, Monte, Partagas, R&J, Upmann,Hoyo, Davidoff. That is pretty much all the emerging markets care about. That is all the retail sector wishes to carry.

There will always be the big dollar Beanie Baby collector. What a joke on them when they find out that the cigars that cost them so much does not taste better than your average PC! But they are not buying them to smoke now are they? A cigar unsmoked is a waste of tobacco! MHO. But I am not buying 300K cigars.

"Let them eat cake..." Let them smoke Cohiba! Same mindset... 

Rightly or wrongly, they are the fastest growing market segment. A company ignores them at their peril. They could have bought the Nissan GTR as well....it had better specs and was cheaper, but they went the Ferrari as it gave them more pleasure even if that pleasure came simply from "prestige". 

 

 

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Posted

Like it or not but cigars are becoming a luxury product that only chinese and other rich people can afford.

Sadly I am not one of them. 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted
On 9.3.2018 at 12:30 AM, El Presidente said:

Bricks and Mortar, retail displays of tobacco worldwide (outside USA)  are shrinking due to legislation. 

Tobacconists who once could carry 25 lines of Cuban cigars are now carrying 7-10

 

This is the core of the problem.  Fringe cigars are being squeezed out of the public eye and sales plummet.  You can't devise an advertising campaign to ramp up brand awareness because it is illegal.   

I would guess that 90% of cigar smokers could name only 5-6 brands of cuban cigars. Saint Luis Rey wouldn't be one of them.

Fair point, Rob. Why I said, it's program and they need to shift resources (tobacco). But it seems to a part a question here of chicken or egg. Why is it that there isn't room anymore in today's societies for the serious smoker? (cigs not being smoking)

Starting out following the mid-90s cigar-boom when HSA/Altadis decided taking that route. That already wasn't sustainable back then with regard to maintaining a broader smoker's/connoisseur's basis (early noughties saw a cutting back on prices, and streamlining of offerings in the following - and there hadn't been much advertising or display restrictions for cigars back then in Europe). From there on, we are witnessing it going downhill with tobacco and cigar legislation. Whatever the cause, perhaps it also was a falling below a critical mass, what we see today is the result of a whole bunch of interdependent decisions and causes, by far not all external. We, the consumers, simply have to deal with it now. Granted, there still is the chance today of acquiring regular production at +/- fair pricing. But, and in particular for my personal preference, they have taken away from us a lot of former choice. Often it is the most uninspiring models that survived (ERDM or SLR or Punch springing to mind).

What I am concerned about is the imminent risk that with the fad-like pushing of the prestige market, the collector's department, and its growing following among (new) cigar smokers and collectors today, that with that the broader basis of those appreciating the solid smoke of decent-value for the simple sake of smoking, is just being allowed to further erode away. If that is happening, and cigar smoking will only be for the hip and wealthy, throwing the rest some bones, then we may all lose in the long run.

Sure, historically cigars have always been a kind of luxury stimulants. But this current heavy prioritizing on the high-end luxury thingy, on fat and fatter poser's cigars coming along with an appeal of wealthiness and celebrity is also at risk of nurturing an envy attitude from the "outside". Health issues?! - Man, get them their luxury tax and duties and skim them as they deserve...

On 9.3.2018 at 12:30 AM, El Presidente said:

Jose Piedra Cremas

... done already, not with us anymore  ;)

Posted
55 minutes ago, Fugu said:

What I am concerned about is the imminent risk that with the fad-like pushing of the prestige market, the collector's department, and its growing following among (new) cigar smokers and collectors today, that with that the broader basis of those appreciating the solid smoke of decent-value for the simple sake of smoking, is just being allowed to further erode away. If that is happening, and cigar smoking will only be for the hip and wealthy, throwing the rest some bones, then we may all lose in the long run.

The cigar market, though, is considerably bigger than just the puros from Cuba. Your analysis doesn't account for the NC market.

The NC market substantial and still growing. The prestige market will continue to collect the LE/Regionals and the upper eschalons of the Cuban market, and those who are interested in the "solid smoke" will gravitate towards the NC.

My thought how this might shake out:

  • Super Premium: Cuban cigars assume their place at the top of the cost structure with a few NCs jostling for these dollars as well.
  • Below the "Super Premium" market would fall the majority of the NCs as "Premium" cigars
  • Bang for Buck (the $3-$7/stick crowd)
  • Machine made market

How does SA lose out if they become the Apple Computers of cigars?

People have predicted the death of Apple forever due to a reasonably analogous market forces (how will they survive if they don't compete in the middle of the cost spectrum?) and APPL just keeps crushing year after year.

Posted
1 hour ago, JamesKPolkEsq said:

The cigar market, though, is considerably bigger than just the puros from Cuba. Your analysis doesn't account for the NC market.

The NC market substantial and still growing. The prestige market will continue to collect the LE/Regionals and the upper eschalons of the Cuban market, and those who are interested in the "solid smoke" will gravitate towards the NC.

 

I believe the NC market will always be the largest market (by far) in the USA.  Outside of the USA, the major brands excluded, they will always struggle for the following reasons. 

1. Tax based on tobacco weight and not wholesale price removes most of the price advantage. 

2. You can't promote or advertise. 

In any market where say a Padron 3000  competes with a D4, the Padron struggles. It is a relatively inexpensive cigar in the US but internationally where tax is based on weight, there is precious little price advantage.   A new NC such as a Don Magnifico Robusto stands zero chance of holding a spot on in the retailers humidor. 

Posted
2 hours ago, El Presidente said:

I believe the NC market will always be the largest market (by far) in the USA.  Outside of the USA, the major brands excluded, they will always struggle for the following reasons. 

1. Tax based on tobacco weight and not wholesale price removes most of the price advantage. 

2. You can't promote or advertise. 

In any market where say a Padron 3000  competes with a D4, the Padron struggles. It is a relatively inexpensive cigar in the US but internationally where tax is based on weight, there is precious little price advantage.   A new NC such as a Don Magnifico Robusto stands zero chance of holding a spot on in the retailers humidor. 

A very interesting comment, that.  As you are in the trade, I am happy to believe that you know whereof you speak .... but this does not exactly match my observations when I travel through Europe.

Being somewhat OCD when it comes to cigars, I find it very hard to walk past any tobacconist when I travel; in fact, I make a point of seeking them out to look through their offerings.  In my experience (mostly throughout Europe, but some Africa), most specialist Habanos dealers (including LCDH) will carry a fair range of NC cigars, and most normal tobacconists will carry more NC than ISOM smokes.  But then again, taxes in much of continental Europe are far lower than the eye-watering levels of the UK (or Australia)....

The real test, IMO, will come when the embargo falls.  Will the limited supply of Cubans ratchet the price up even further?  And if so, will that offer opportunities for NC manufacturers who will then be able to differentiate themselves on price again?  

 

Posted
13 hours ago, gweilgi said:

A very interesting comment, that.  As you are in the trade, I am happy to believe that you know whereof you speak .... but this does not exactly match my observations when I travel through Europe.

Rob's absolutely spot on. Most NCs come with a higher price tag than Cubans in Europe. And that's even more holding true for those few NCs actually worth smoking... :P.

But advertising by NC brands is a multiple of that of Habanos, and NCs are particularly appealing to the novice smoker. Also, not few tobacconists disadvise beginners on smoking CCs - due to the "strength of Cubans"... Unfortunately, unless a true specialist shop, the majority of sales stuff has no clue, and it even seems to me that there might be a provision system or some sort of package deals running in the back for NCs... NCs also have a higher market penetration in the lower-profile range, like you get at gas stations, kiosks, newspaper stores, small tobacconists etc., you'll hardly find any Cuban there. But - the selection that specialist shops carry doesn't tell too much about sales and turnover. While NCs are mostly bought in singles, CCs are more often bought by the box.

So the trend is certainly there as @JamesK outlines - still I wouldn't file cheap NCs under the "solid smoke" category (at least that's not what I had in mind with "solid smoke")

Posted

I've always maintained that there's no downside to supporting all regular production models, I think I may be missing HSA's strategy and there may in fact be one.

Larger RG special releases represent the biggest margins for HSA. This is just fact. I think they believe that trimming the non-global brands down to 3 or less vitolas allows them to increase the value of special releases under the given streamlined marcas. Some marcas will be revamped entirely like QdO but the new models will be larger RG, higher margin cigars. Let's be honest--the QdO 50 is a Short Robusto that should be priced the same as the PSD5 but it is actually priced 10-20% higher. 

Sure, HSA could produce SLR A in minimal quantities sufficient to meet the demand of its loyal fans, but to them putting good tobacco in that model is costing them profit when they could use that tobacco for a 54 RG "Serie B" that would fly off the shelf.

I do agree, HSA could give a hoot about us traditionalists. And as much as I don't like it, it's as much a function of a state-owned enterprise as anything else. The only thing that maybe would have prevented or delayed this, IMO, is private ownership and production of the Cuban brands. 

I think this unfortunate trend is actually long overdue. Tabacuba coasted for decades on the miracle Corojo & Criollo, the Soviet Union's largess and virtually no serious competition from NC cigars. Very little changed for CCs from 1962 to 2002 outside of a wave of cuts in the 1970s. Cuba wasn't really too concerned with their bottom line until the late 90s when the Soviets' demise and the end of the cigar boom converged to make them panic and bring in an outside private enterprise to make the operation profitable as any private company would do. 

Regular production models that have lower margins and sell relatively poorly simply aren't the future and they know it. The only obligation they have is to the shareholders, which is the case for any company in all honesty. 

The fact that very few of us here "get" the large RG, special production trend should tell us that we are in the vast minority among the world's cigar smokers and cigar spenders. HSA losing money to please us makes little sense, as much as I dislike it. 

  • Like 1
Posted
23 hours ago, gweilgi said:

A very interesting comment, that.  As you are in the trade, I am happy to believe that you know whereof you speak .... but this does not exactly match my observations when I travel through Europe.

Being somewhat OCD when it comes to cigars, I find it very hard to walk past any tobacconist when I travel; in fact, I make a point of seeking them out to look through their offerings.  In my experience (mostly throughout Europe, but some Africa), most specialist Habanos dealers (including LCDH) will carry a fair range of NC cigars, and most normal tobacconists will carry more NC than ISOM smokes.  But then again, taxes in much of continental Europe are far lower than the eye-watering levels of the UK (or Australia)....

The real test, IMO, will come when the embargo falls.  Will the limited supply of Cubans ratchet the price up even further?  And if so, will that offer opportunities for NC manufacturers who will then be able to differentiate themselves on price again?  

 

From my interactions with retailers in Europe (that carry both Habanos and NC)  NC revenue seems to average 16%.  I am always interested as I don't sell NC cigars. 

This is in the premium field. It doesn't  include Villiger, Henry Wintermans, Flavoured cigars, white owls etc. 

 

 

  • Like 1
Posted
2 hours ago, El Presidente said:

From my interactions with retailers in Europe (that carry both Habanos and NC)  NC revenue seems to average 16%.  I am always interested as I don't sell NC cigars. 

This is in the premium field. It doesn't  include Villiger, Henry Wintermans, Flavoured cigars, white owls etc. 

 

 

I did not know this; thanks!  My comment was occasioned purely from observation as a walk-in customer looking at what's on offer...

Posted
2 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I've always maintained that there's no downside to supporting all regular production models, I think I may be missing HSA's strategy and there may in fact be one.

Larger RG special releases represent the biggest margins for HSA. This is just fact. I think they believe that trimming the non-global brands down to 3 or less vitolas allows them to increase the value of special releases under the given streamlined marcas. Some marcas will be revamped entirely like QdO but the new models will be larger RG, higher margin cigars. Let's be honest--the QdO 50 is a Short Robusto that should be priced the same as the PSD5 but it is actually priced 10-20% higher. 

 

It's the biggest and best asset of the Cuban state -- they will never give that up.  The best I could see is a continuation of the product under licence.  

 

2 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I think this unfortunate trend is actually long overdue. Tabacuba coasted for decades on the miracle Corojo & Criollo, the Soviet Union's largess and virtually no serious competition from NC cigars. Very little changed for CCs from 1962 to 2002 outside of a wave of cuts in the 1970s. Cuba wasn't really too concerned with their bottom line until the late 90s when the Soviets' demise and the end of the cigar boom converged to make them panic and bring in an outside private enterprise to make the operation profitable as any private company would do. 

Regular production models that have lower margins and sell relatively poorly simply aren't the future and they know it. The only obligation they have is to the shareholders, which is the case for any company in all honesty. 

The fact that very few of us here "get" the large RG, special production trend should tell us that we are in the vast minority among the world's cigar smokers and cigar spenders. HSA losing money to please us makes little sense, as much as I dislike it. 

 

2 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I've always maintained that there's no downside to supporting all regular production models, I think I may be missing HSA's strategy and there may in fact be one.

Larger RG special releases represent the biggest margins for HSA. This is just fact. I think they believe that trimming the non-global brands down to 3 or less vitolas allows them to increase the value of special releases under the given streamlined marcas. Some marcas will be revamped entirely like QdO but the new models will be larger RG, higher margin cigars. Let's be honest--the QdO 50 is a Short Robusto that should be priced the same as the PSD5 but it is actually priced 10-20% higher. 

Sure, HSA could produce SLR A in minimal quantities sufficient to meet the demand of its loyal fans, but to them putting good tobacco in that model is costing them profit when they could use that tobacco for a 54 RG "Serie B" that would fly off the shelf.

I do agree, HSA could give a hoot about us traditionalists. And as much as I don't like it, it's as much a function of a state-owned enterprise as anything else. The only thing that maybe would have prevented or delayed this, IMO, is private ownership and production of the Cuban brands. 

I think this unfortunate trend is actually long overdue. Tabacuba coasted for decades on the miracle Corojo & Criollo, the Soviet Union's largess and virtually no serious competition from NC cigars. Very little changed for CCs from 1962 to 2002 outside of a wave of cuts in the 1970s. Cuba wasn't really too concerned with their bottom line until the late 90s when the Soviets' demise and the end of the cigar boom converged to make them panic and bring in an outside private enterprise to make the operation profitable as any private company would do. 

Regular production models that have lower margins and sell relatively poorly simply aren't the future and they know it. The only obligation they have is to the shareholders, which is the case for any company in all honesty. 

The fact that very few of us here "get" the large RG, special production trend should tell us that we are in the vast minority among the world's cigar smokers and cigar spenders. HSA losing money to please us makes little sense, as much as I dislike it. 

Perhaps we should be very very grateful that this streamlining (rationalisation?  Rightsizing?) was so long in coming.  I mean, for decades now Cuba has managed to pull off the astonishing trick of successfully pretending to be an entire cottage industry while in fact being one single state-owned company.  In most other cases, when the state took over an industry it ended up producing only one or at best a few products, and shoddy ones at that.  Off-hand, I cannot think of a single instance where a state-run company actively maintained the whole breadth and depth of the formerly private industry ... and even expanded on it.

My questions would be "is it inevitable that HSA loses money on their smaller offerings" and "what have they done to address this issue"?  Does it make sense to surrender entire market segments and drastically changing a core value of the Cuban cigar industry?  How many future customers will not be "recruited" if and when Cubans are seen as simply too elite, too super-premium?

 And given that march up the price ladder, is Cuba at all capable of delivering the sort of quality control that would be required?  In that segment, I can have the very high and justified expectation that there will not be a single plugged smoke in any box of Davidoff Winstons or Patron Anniversary or Fuente Opus X that I buy sight unseen, and that every cigar will be perfectly matched in colour.  By contrast, I can march into any LCDH and will still inspect every box.  DOn't get me wrong -- I love Cuban cigars.  I adore them, and I have the humidors (and credit card receipts) to prove it.  But I do so knowing that I have to accept flaws.  I am not sure how many people around the world will do so if their cigars keep creeping up in price....

Just my tuppence...

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