How Habanos dodged a bullet.

[El Presidente]

I was looking through a mastercase of Upmann Number 2 this past Wednesday.  They were truly awful with pale dry lifeless wrappers on some and dry greenish tinged rough wrappers on others. I posted the photo of one of the boxes that slipped through Quality control.  I can only imagine that the QC manager was so distraught at what he was seeing  that he was on the floor in a foetal position when this box came through. 

You would need to have a hide as thick as an elephant to be a fabrica QC manager currently.  They should be rejecting far more stock than they are.  Yet, there are quotas and they need their job. Their boss is the government.  Catch 22. 

Let's put it plainly.  I have seen thousands of boxes of late 16 and 17 stock.  Cuban Cigar quality right now is as bad as the worst days of 99.  I have only been doing this since 1996.  Yes there are some cracker boxes coming through and I do my best to find them. However the wrapper leaf shortage has meant that we are seeing some absolute rubbish and it is getting worse by the month. 

And yet Habanos s.a got lucky....or as we say "dodged a bullet". 

How?......The embargo wasn't lifted. 

Imagine if Hillary got in, the embargo was lifted and current Cuban cigar quality flooded the US market.  

The below box of  legitimate Upmann Number 2 makes fakes look good. 

What would be the damage done to Cuban cigars? How long would it take them to recover?

They should thank their lucky stars. 

On the one hand Davidoff and others must be laughing....and on the other hand cursing their luck that Habanos were denied the opportunity to commit commercial suicide. 

 

[Isaac]

Perhaps those are the new beach offerings

[ElJavi76]

Those sticks are a crying shame. My friends who have been to Cuba recently tell me that some of the LCdH's are short on stock. Espléndidos are scarce. One friend told me he saw one Siglo VI box, and it was "out back".

I've yet to return since I departed in 1980. I've held out because they scrutinize and give you crap once they know you abandoned the cause.

My friend and I have the same worry regarding stock and quality. Wondering if we should stock up now prior to any potential regime change.

The winds of change might be upon us sooner than later. 

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-09-07/cuban-dissidents-in-electoral-challenge-as-castro-era-nears-end

[Bagman]

I purchased a bunch (17) boxes in July in Havana.  Mostly at Hotel Libre.  They wouldn't let me open the boxes (language barrier perhaps) so I rolled the dice.  Every box I got had beautiful wrappers.  Guess I got lucky.  And I mostly bought large size.  Punch DC, Luthy, HDM DC, Winnie, etc.   Only one place (Club Havana) had Montecristo 2.  I bought the few they had and they had wonderful wrappers.    Almost everything I got had a box date of May2017.

[El Presidente]

48 minutes ago, Monterey said:

I purchased a bunch (17) boxes in July in Havana.  Mostly at Hotel Libre.  They wouldn't let me open the boxes (language barrier perhaps) so I rolled the dice.  Every box I got had beautiful wrappers.  Guess I got lucky.  And I mostly bought large size.  Punch DC, Luthy, HDM DC, Winnie, etc.   Only one place (Club Havana) had Montecristo 2.  I bought the few they had and they had wonderful wrappers.    Almost everything I got had a box date of May2017.

Surprisingly, the least affected have been the DC's. Monte 2 have been badly affected. 

Great to hear that they are making Punch DC again.  

[Fugu]

9 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Let's put it plainly.  I have seen thousands of boxes of late 16 and 17 stock.  Cuban Cigar quality right now is as bad as the worst days of 99.  I have only been doing this since 1996.  Yes there are some cracker boxes coming through and I do my best to find them. However the wrapper leaf shortage has meant that we are seeing some absolute rubbish and it is getting worse by the month. 

Thanks for the insight Rob. What I have seen of Cohiba 2016 production - Siglo series and Coro in particular ('15 Lanceros having been bliss, alas not seen any '16 or '17 so far) - has always been good to very fine. Monte Especial and Especiales No.2 (coming from LAU in early 2017 in particular) have been - consistently - so good that I went deep on them. I'd go so far to say, those are safe blind purchases. Is that also reflecting your experience? I.e. that there are exceptions that are not just plain coincidence?

[JohnS]

For me, the biggest difference this year has been a lack of whole quality mastercases like in previous years. You know, like TOS Diplomáticos No.2's and San Cristobal de La Habana La Fuerzas, MUO Cohiba Esplendidos and POU Romeo y Julieta Exhibicion No.4's, for example. There was a time when these vitolas had 'golden runs' and were consistently on 24:24 sales, with high demand to boot.

[El Presidente]

10 hours ago, Fugu said:

Thanks for the insight Rob. What I have seen of Cohiba 2016 production - Siglo series and Coro in particular ('15 Lanceros having been bliss, alas not seen any '16 or '17 so far) - has always been good to very fine. Monte Especial and Especiales No.2 (coming from LAU in early 2017 in particular) have been - consistently - so good that I went deep on them. I'd go so far to say, those are safe blind purchases. Is that also reflecting your experience? I.e. that there are exceptions that are not just plain coincidence?

Esplendisos, lanceros, the few Monte  especial from late 16 early 17 have been excellent. 

Cohiba being produced not badly affected. 

Monte 2/4 Partagas D4, RASS, Upmann 2. VR Unicos, R&J most......anything premium and pumped out in volume has been badly affected.  

[Bagman]

Not only did they have Punch DC, but they had them in cabinets!  I was very happy, especially since they are being discontinued.  They looked great.  I attached a pic of the Montecristo #2 I got as well.   I guess time will tell how they end up.  Strangely, really only Hotel Libre had double coronas.   Slim pickings back in July.

 

[BellevilleMXZ]

We are going end of nov and this has me worried if they wont open boxes!

[SCgarman]

4 hours ago, Monterey said:

Not only did they have Punch DC, but they had them in cabinets!  I was very happy, especially since they are being discontinued.  They looked great.  I attached a pic of the Montecristo #2 I got as well.   I guess time will tell how they end up.  Strangely, really only Hotel Libre had double coronas.   Slim pickings back in July.

 

So you bought these blind? They look fantastic and luck was on your side!

[ChanceSchmerr]

20 hours ago, Monterey said:

Not only did they have Punch DC, but they had them in cabinets!  I was very happy, especially since they are being discontinued.  They looked great.  I attached a pic of the Montecristo #2 I got as well.   I guess time will tell how they end up.  Strangely, really only Hotel Libre had double coronas.   Slim pickings back in July.

 

What was the box date on your Punch DC Cab?  2017?

I hold out hope of being to afford one of these at regular price if I can get one before they are gone for good off the regular production chain.

[Lotusguy]

Really curious about the Punch DC date - freshest I've seen were 2015 so far.

[luvdunhill]

Really curious about the Punch DC date - freshest I've seen were 2015 so far.

Same. The 2015 are going to be good though, I have sampled a few cabs already.

[Smokin Joe]

On 09/09/2017 at 7:57 AM, El Presidente said:

Esplendisos, lanceros, the few Monte  especial from late 16 early 17 have been excellent. 

Cohiba being produced not badly affected. 

Monte 2/4 Partagas D4, RASS, Upmann 2. VR Unicos, R&J most......anything premium and pumped out in volume has been badly affected.  

As I understand it, the drop in quality in '99 came off the back of a massive push by the Cuban Gov to increase output (and :. income). I also saw some reporting that the Cuban tobacco Dons cut output and improved quality due to the reputational damage.

Do you think concerns about damaging marquee makes like Monte#2 will bring them back into line? Or are they more likely to grind it out until the current wrapper shortage resolves?

[dhp]

So why hasn't Cuba been able to ramp up production at a reasonable quality level?  Is it a matter of limited land that's appropriate for tobacco?  Because surely any investment into cigar making infrastructure could be easily paid for by increased exports...

[oliverdst]

HSA wouldnt screw this new huge market. Best boxes would go to US. 

[Bagman]

2 hours ago, dhp said:

So why hasn't Cuba been able to ramp up production at a reasonable quality level?  Is it a matter of limited land that's appropriate for tobacco?  Because surely any investment into cigar making infrastructure could be easily paid for by increased exports...

You silly capitalist thinker

[Bagman]

I told you, May 2017.  There were 4 of these, now you are making me think I should have grabbed 2 of these!