My take on the lifting of international restrictions of Cuban cigars for US residents.

[El Presidente]

Forgive me for posting this in a separate thread. I don't want to take away from the existing threads on the subject.....but this will save me answering the 30 or so PM's in my inbox 

 

1. Don't panic. Buying for the sake of buying is silly. 
2. It is good news for US citizens
3. HSA will make a fortune. 
4. Prices will increase. Simple supply and demand. Timelines for this I have no idea. 
5. I don't see quality decreasing. It is easier to control demand (HSA) via pricing. They don't have the leaf/stock at this time to do it any other way. 
6. Stock will become increasingly scarce. Really just a continuation of what has occurred during 2016. Poor seasons + strategic hoarding (HSA) will have an impact going into 2017/18. 
7. Some distributors will panic. They may make some awkward supply decisions. 
8. International Retailers with B&M's in strategic locations have a window to make mucho moola 
9. This is a nice bit of practice (distributors and retailers) for the final stage, which is a complete unfettered opening up of the US market. If they can't handle this phase, the next one will cruel them. 
10. Market upheaval provides opportunities. 

 

It is hard to predict the end outcome. In the world of life/business, 95% of worst case scenarios don't eventuate 

Tranquilo hermanos. Deep breath. "Chicken Little" scenarios will abound.  Take them with a grain of salt for the time being. 

I will certainly keep you updated from the supply side. 

 

 

 

[Jimmy_jack]

Good information coming from a man in the business. I appreciate it. 

While some are stocking up on boxes of smokes...I'm investing in lighters. Buying them all up. After all...they'll need something to light all their cigars with 

[RickHendeson]

1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

Forgive me for posting this in a separate thread. I don't want to take away from the existing threads on the subject.....but this will save me answering the 30 or so PM's in my inbox 

 

1. Don't panic.
2.  
3.  
4. Prices will increase. Simple supply and demand. Timelines for this I have no idea. 
5.  
6. Stock will become increasingly scarce.
7.  
8.  
9.  
10.  

 

 

Tranquilo hermanos. Deep breath.

 

 

 

 

You can see where it's hard for some of us to remain tranquilo (#1) in light of #4 and #6, though . . . . 

[El Presidente]

I see your point!

For about 5 years I have been saying that when we look back, the 2000's to date have been the "Golden period" for purchasing Cuban cigars. 

The USD was struggling for a significant period of that time. Taxes were stiff in many countries but not completely out of control, plain packaging had yet to take effect, no FDA, stock was relatively plentiful, good vendors globally well supplied. 

Things will undoubtedly change. 

Still....you nor I can do a damn thing about it. Yes, we have strategies in place but I am old enough and ugly enough to know that whatever I have planned may come to nought.  So be it! I doubt either of us will be short of cigars or good friends or laughs!

From a supplier side, I just hoist the "Jolly Roger" flag and trim the sales into the oncoming turbulence. Who knows where we end up. I love this time of life, the unpredictability, the opportunity. Just another adventure in an industry that has given me plenty. God bless it.!!!! 

 

[Bohn007]

17 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

I see your point!

For about 5 years I have been saying that when we look back, the 2000's to date have been the "Golden period" for purchasing Cuban cigars. 

The USD was struggling for a significant period of that time. Taxes were stiff in many countries but not completely out of control, plain packaging had yet to take effect, no FDA, stock was relatively plentiful, good vendors globally well supplied. 

Things will undoubtedly change. 

Still....you nor I can do a damn thing about it. Yes, we have strategies in place but I am old enough and ugly enough to know that whatever I have planned may come to nought.  So be it! I doubt either of us will be short of cigars or good friends or laughs!

From a supplier side, I just hoist the "Jolly Roger" flag and trim the sales into the oncoming turbulence. Who knows where we end up. I love this time of life, the unpredictability, the opportunity. Just another adventure in an industry that has given me plenty. God bless it.!!!! 

 

The OLH holds up to 60 boxes. I am ready for the apocolypse. 

[jackattack]

https://youtu.be/zDAmPIq29ro

 

[SCgarman]

Personally, I feel that many Americans who already have cigars they love and are loyal to ex. Padron, Fuente, Patel will try Cuban cigars. They will be disappointed with the tighter draws, inconsistency and perhaps flavor profile. The novelty will wear off quickly and they will go back to their coveted non Cuban brands. Many cigar smokers in the US already have the mindset that Cuban cigars are not what they are cracked up to be and are an inferior product.

[MahDooRow]

28 minutes ago, NYgarman said:

Many cigar smokers in the US already have the mindset that Cuban cigars are not what they are cracked up to be and are an inferior product.

I am mazed how many times people in the US say these exact words ^.  99% of the time this opinion that CCs are "inferior" is based on nothing more than word of mouth, not personal experience.  

[BuzzArd]

11 minutes ago, MahDooRow said:

I am mazed how many times people in the US say these exact words ^.  99% of the time this opinion that CCs are "inferior" is based on nothing more than word of mouth, not personal experience.  

Easy to put down something you don't have. 

I think my neighbors BMW 645ci is a turd, but then again I drive a Honda Accord.  Were I a BMW owner I might be green with envy....  

[Bohn007]

19 minutes ago, BuzzArd said:

Easy to put down something you don't have. 

I think my neighbors BMW 645ci is a turd, but then again I drive a Honda Accord.  Were I a BMW owner I might be green with envy....  

Love my Accord..... LOL

[eswary]

Interesting time in cigar history people. I'm kinda on the front lines of it all living in Miami, we are seeing a plethora of Cuban tobacco coming into the city recently. With the now numerous flights available each day to Cuba, it's pretty easy to send a "grocery list" with anyone visiting for the weekend and coming back.
I personally am most excited to start purchasing customs rolls in bulk. These have always been the most difficult for me to obtain in bulk quantities.


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[PigFish]

Me, at the rate I smoke today, 4 boxes gets me through the 'Cuban Torpedo Crisis.'

I think that some planning may be in order by some who have few cigars. So you charge up a credit card and buy some cigars to cover you for a few months. It is not like you were not going to buy the cigars anyway!

There are plenty of vendors around the world and not all of them want to sit on, or hoard stock... They never have! Vendors are in the business to sell cigars. Temporary fluctuations may cause some gouging but a lot of us are not going to get gouged! Now we can fly to Cuba!

The captive US market by internet vendors is changing, maybe not forever, this might not last...

If Tabacuba has no plans to meet greater demand with greater production, they are truly stupid people. The real question is, how great will the demand be? I don't think with all the hurdles for the Cuban cigar in the states, this will be any kind of trend setting event. Things always change, and competition always comes back into the equation.

Of course no one looks at the broader economy, perhaps a bad thread move here, but with the US 20T in debt, perhaps 200T in unfunded liabilities, we may be heading for another recession. The stock market is propped up with the government 'feeding' it, and so is the RE market, teetering with record low interest rates.

There may be a lot less interest in spending money on cigars by many of us in the next few years.

Cuban cigar vendors may want to think again before gouging! There is a lot more going on in the world than bringing cigars home in a suitcase!

I have always advocated hoarding cigars... Again, my plan has always been a simple one that has worked well in the past. If you have to panic buy, you are already too late...

You planning on emptying out PCC Rob? The point is, no one wants to get 'stuck' with cigars either, especially not a vendor. This just means that they will tie up capital and have to blow them out at some point if the 'mad rush' does not develop. Acting stupidly can put people out of business, so this thing is not just going to affect the consumer!

We all have more options than the one store in town. Anyone, from the consumer up knows this. Again, I see nothing earth-shaking in any of this. I remember the 90' and shortages. I lived though that just fine!

-Piggy

[dangolf18]

All I can say is that regional editions will be probably be near impossible to find anymore, especially at airport duty-free. I also think that any aged stock and rarities will start to be bunkered. We'll see the rarer stuff and aged stock cherry-picked very quickly. If you have the funds, better load up. I'd rather be safe than sorry.   

[Fugu]

16 hours ago, El Presidente said:

• Don't panic.
•  
• Prices will increase.. 
•  
• Stock will become increasingly scarce.

I will certainly keep you updated from the supply side

 

Haha, don't panic - "Mate, your house is burning, but don't panic, I can get you two buckets...."

 

Folks - this has to be put quite prosaically into perspective:

The US market is estimated to take up eventually about 20% of Cuban production (unselfish, optimistic view by HSA representatives). A part of this is already long going there to the true connoisseurs. Smoking in general is on a descent. So, there won't be much more cigar smokers coming on board just because Cubans can now be had more freely (this is our own biased perspective). The question of how much will be coming on top can't be seriously answered at this point, as it depends on a multitude of factors. Some of which have been addressed by Piggy.

The current move of the US government will account for, I'd say,  ~negligible extra amounts going to come in now directly from Cuba tourists. As well as an additional share in the luggage of US-travellers buying elsewere in the world. Quite a bit of it will be volume sellers (Monte 4, RyJ Mille etc.) and duty free / travel retail. This all will still be tiny amounts compared to overall Cuban exports.

Shortages - yes, we are witnessing it! - but certainly not due to a policy of détente by the US gov, but because of a difficult situation in Cuba.

[scap99]

Don't Panic!

Classic Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.

42.

[PapaDisco]

El Pres . . . 

Your list is far too rational for HSA to be part of it in any way . . .  . . . have you made the mistaken assumption that they 'think things through?'  

A couple things occur to me though:

1.  Just how much can hand carried cigars supply the U.S. market anyway?? You'd be all year just trying to get a containers worth in.

2.  Everything brought in is subject to customs duty.  So there's no price advantage in the practice.

3.  Counterfeits are going to take a significant chunk of whatever the retail 'Cuban' volume ends up being, significantly reducing actual Cuban demand.

So I am going to take that breath and stay calm . . . right up until posting of the next 24:24! 

 

[dangolf18]

14 minutes ago, PapaDisco said:

El Pres . . . 

Your list is far too rational for HSA to be part of it in any way . . .  . . . have you made the mistaken assumption that they 'think things through?'  

A couple things occur to me though:

1.  Just how much can hand carried cigars supply the U.S. market anyway?? You'd be all year just trying to get a containers worth in.

2.  Everything brought in is subject to customs duty.  So there's no price advantage in the practice.

3.  Counterfeits are going to take a significant chunk of whatever the retail 'Cuban' volume ends up being, significantly reducing actual Cuban demand.

So I am going to take that breath and stay calm . . . right up until posting of the next 24:24! 

 

I'd actually think the number of fakes would decrease as most would start buying from duty-free in airports and at B&Ms abroad. As Americans start to familiarize themselves with what Cuban cigars look like and how they smoke, I'd think less will be taken by fakes. I do agree with your other points though, albeit I don't think there's going to be shortage from U.S. demand, but by cigar aficionados outside the U.S. preparing for the U.S. embargo to be lifted (by bunkering). Just my 2 cents. 

[vladdraq]

30 minutes ago, dangolf18 said:

I'd actually think the number of fakes would decrease as most would start buying from duty-free in airports and at B&Ms abroad. As Americans start to familiarize themselves with what Cuban cigars look like and how they smoke, I'd think less will be taken by fakes. I do agree with your other points though, albeit I don't think there's going to be shortage from U.S. demand, but by cigar aficionados outside the U.S. preparing for the U.S. embargo to be lifted (by bunkering). Just my 2 cents. 

Don't forget, most of the fakes (until now) are coming from Mexico, or other, they never see a cuban leaf. That will change.

[El Presidente]

2 hours ago, Fugu said:

 

The US market is estimated to take up eventually about 20% of Cuban production (unselfish, optimistic view by HSA representatives). A part of this is already long going there to the true connoisseurs. Smoking in general is on a descent. So, there won't be much more cigar smokers coming on board just because Cubans can now be had more freely (this is our own biased perspective). 

It takes closer to 30% now. 

The changes announced are neither here not there in terms of quantities.  

It is more like a "2 minute warning" preparing all for the real game to come. 

 

[Fugu]

38 minutes ago, Hutch said:

Look at all of us who used to enjoy NCs who now would hate to do without our Cuban cigars..

Ahh, come on Hutch, let's face it, it's just the lure of the forbidden fruit....

[Bohn007]

1 minute ago, Fugu said:

Ahh, come on Hutch, let's face it, it's just the lure of the forbidden fruit....

When you are used to eating cabbage (or NC's), of course fruit is better.....

[MrGinger]

2 hours ago, PapaDisco said:

 

2.  Everything brought in is subject to customs duty.  So there's no price advantage in the practice.

 

 

True, however the max duty imposed on one cigar is only 40 cents.  There is a GREAT advantage for American tourists to stock up big time when travelling abroad.

[PapaDisco]

14 minutes ago, MrGinger said:

True, however the max duty imposed on one cigar is only 40 cents.  There is a GREAT advantage for American tourists to stock up big time when travelling abroad.

Only $0.40/cigar?!  Shoot that's inconsequential!  Why are Duty Free cigars in Hong Kong so damn expensive then?

[ndhaon91]

I think you're giving my fellow Americans too much credit. I agree with a few others who have stated that the most immediate impact will be a huge boost to the counterfeit cigar market. The cigar aficionados with the money, taste, and desire to stock up on Cuban cigars are already doing that through FoH or other vendors. It's not like you guys are a big secret or hard to find. Most American cigar smokers have no idea that Cuban cigars can only be purchased at authorized retailers. What I think you'll see is Mexican resorts suddenly running very low on stock.

[Cigar Connoisseur]

55 minutes ago, ndhaon91 said:

I think you're giving my fellow Americans too much credit. I agree with a few others who have stated that the most immediate impact will be a huge boost to the counterfeit cigar market. The cigar aficionados with the money, taste, and desire to stock up on Cuban cigars are already doing that through FoH or other vendors. It's not like you guys are a big secret or hard to find. Most American cigar smokers have no idea that Cuban cigars can only be purchased at authorized retailers. What I think you'll see is Mexican resorts suddenly running very low on stock.

A true statement indeed!...