Market and Dollar Watch

[mgravito]

Keep it going, gentlemen. As someone with little knowledge of markets this is great stuff.

[JohnS]

So far, the US has held Oz in check but not for much longer. These "spats" aren't really such; this is all scripted. The IMF and BRICS banks are taking a reasoned approach to changing the world financial model, as too much change too quickly will freak people out.

The US is the first to admit that they no longer want to be the world's reserve currency; neither does China. Being the reserve currency means that you export too much inflation, which has now come back to haunt America.

Kept Australia in check? I would love you to expand on this. I appreciate the exposition on the changes to the SDR.

[NastyPirate]

Kept Australia in check? I would love you to expand on this. I appreciate the exposition on the changes to the SDR.

JohnS,

Oz was asked by China to be a founding member of the the new Asian Development Bank. The US exerted no small amount of pressure to get them to not join; considering the vast amount of USD that Australia holds for foreign remissions, this would be a problem for the US. It would mean that Australia would send those dollars back to the Fed, thereby creating even more liquidity in a nation that already has a zero rate for borrowing. It would be a case of too many dollars chasing too few borrowers. The US is increasingly concerned about deflation here, which will be a very bad scenario with a couple more de-pegs. Look for Italy and Spain to go next.

The new Development bank is using the Chinese Renminbi as its primary currency. The Chinese are actively working to get their foreign currency accepted worldwide as a reserve currency as quickly as possible. The SDR basket will include them after the next review in May-June.

I get to work with many of the major players in this 3-act scripted change, which is how I got dialed in. The major bankers, Central Banks, the IMF/BIS/WB have been working on this for years--at least since 2007 when the implosion hit.

For those interested, there is an excellent, easy to read primer here: http://philosophyofmetrics.com

Start at the beginning with the essays on the SDR and Bretton Woods and go from there. This is the best spot to learn the new world order of things. I will vouch for the fact that what you read there is true. Astounding, but true.

[Habana Mike]

Thanks for the pointers Bill. Quite a rabbit hole....

[JohnS]

NastyPirate,

How interesting is it that I stumbled upon this article stating that the Australian Government is considering investing $AU3 Billion in the China-led Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank...how timely are your insights?

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-ready-to-join-us100-billion-china-bank-20150319-1m33pa.html

[Diamondog]

hmmm

[NastyPirate]

NastyPirate,

How interesting is it that I stumbled upon this article stating that the Australian Government is considering investing $AU3 Billion in the China-led Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank...how timely are your insights?

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-ready-to-join-us100-billion-china-bank-20150319-1m33pa.html

They would seem to be fairly timely, I guess

[NastyPirate]

Haha....jesus christ. Still in some sort of correction in my opinion. I'm slightly bullish gold in the near term, but will probably not see prices above $1400...remember it doesn't pay dividends.I think Europe is going to hell (no offense)...Draghi can't do anything else to keep it afloat. Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain are a ticking time bomb as far as I'm concerned. I'm fairly confident we'll see the euro reach parity with the dollar by mid-2016.

Dangolf-

Just saw this post. You SHOULD be bullish on gold; the problem is trying to find some to buy. Or silver. When things get wacky, gold and silver offer stability, which is, in some markets, better than trying (and failing) to find a small return.

The ICE takes control tomorrow for regulation and enforcement of the new gold fix. It will now be a transparent auction, with the real action occurring in Shanghai. Why? Because the Chinese have so much physical gold. They have been doing straw man buys for 6 years, and they now own the lion's share of it. Russia and Iraq are next on that list.

$1,400? Try $7,000, and $10,000 is not completely out of the question. Silver will run to $200/troy ounce. The Chinese have so much physical gold and silver that they are just waiting for the paper sellers in NY/London to bust when their worthless paper gets called. The London fix is selling 100 x (on paper) the amount of physical ounces that they have in the vaults, owned or leased. How do you think that's going to end? Another derivatives crisis...

China will announce a new price for gold and silver. They have most of it, and sovereign nations won't argue because the rise in value will buff up their respective National Bank balance sheets. Gold has been manipulated for years, but not in the future. With the GCR having already started, gold revaluation is not far behind. My bet: < 3 months.

3 weeks ago, the Swiss de-pegged. Yesterday, it was Sweden. And the next is?

Lace 'em up, boys.

[Onelove]

Any more insights?

[Ubergosupro69]

I wish I had enough extra money lying around to buy gold with.

But let's be real, if I had extra money, I'd buy more cigars.

[ralphie48]

i think in the very short term we may see the markets bounce back a bit. However, a good bear market and worse is on the way. I am not buying, but am not selling my holdings. I am comfortable in the fact to be mostly cash at this time.

[Habana Mike]

And here we are, 5 years later....

[GVan]

I really enjoyed reading this - and then I started looking at the dates of the posts.  Wow, seems like others are about as good as I am at predicting the markets, oil, gold, silver and currencies!

I'm with the guy who said, do some research on the companies you want to invest in; think long term trends, and (I'll add to this) watch the Management Team.  If they start changing or hire some big star - get out!  Good companies develop their own people, their own strategies and future leaders.  They too think long-term and don't change just because of the latest fad or financial trend.  When times get tough they take quick action to tighten their belt, while still taking care of their people, and when times are good they invest capital wisely and hire selectively.

When the market is swinging all over the place being driven by the latest news story it's time to buy.  But, buy good management teams / companies with good track records.  I've stopped spending on anything but pure necessities and have been selectively buying both stocks and bonds for the past few weeks.

That means I don't think I'll be buying any more cigars until about August - sure signal it's really tough times!  But my instincts tell me that some of these recent buys will be double digit growth in the near future and maybe I can afford some Cohiba's ....

[Yellot00tr]

Interesting read. I was sitting in cash for a while and recently went back in on halliburton, norwegian cruise, and the oil fund USO. I’m trading June options on the diamonds, spiders, and q’s. Adding to, selling, or rebuying those as the markets move. I’m holding July 17 halliburton $15 calls as well, which is a crapshoot. Every dollar there will pay almost 9x i think, or it can all be worthless. Air canada acdvx looked sweet. Primary source of transpo. Can’t imagine the country letting them go under. Trading near $40 a few months ago and cant see it not going back there. Steal at $14. Wish i could trade their options. Looked into suezmax oil tankers a few days ago, but the daily operational costs were too high. Thus, USO fund instead of physical assets. Uncertainty in korea pushed us into looking at investments into steel and concrete because nk doesn’t have infrastructure. Oil and rail as primary means for transpo and steel for infrastructure were the plays in the event kju dropped, but he looks to be alive, so....looking for other opportunities to make money.

 

 

edit-heard that gunfire exchanged across DMZ. If nk and sk go to war, I’m rich. Oil goes thru the roof. Mpg. Nk tanks are probably soviet era style and prob get 1/2mpg. They gotta strap barrels to the back of them. War or even potential of conflict? Nk, sk, china, and us will need to move huge pieces of military assets in show of force or deterrent. Just movement will spike oil. Actual conflict? Oil going to $100. Halliburton options, xom, and USO are as gold. War is bad. “Conflict” is good. 

[Yellot00tr]

Yesterday was a banner day for the markets.   Unbelievable bets that paid off beautifully.  On top of the options on Halliburton (in the money on HAL Jul 17 $13 and HAL Jul $14, close on HAL Jul 17 $15 and HAL Jul 24 $17, slightly down on the options I bought yesterday for this position-Jul 24 $18) and the indexes (Jul 17 and July 24 calls), I recently bought options for these positions:

norwegian cruise (NCLH Jul 17 $22.50)

carnival cruise (CCL Jul 10 $19)

draftkings (DKNG Aug 21 $50)

Coty (Coty Jul 17 $6 and Aug 21 $7)

american airlines (AAL Aug 21 $20). 

These options all hit yesterday and i had a 85% gain for the day.  At every downtick I'm adding to these positions or selling them and rebuying.

I think there's at least 20% more upside to this market.  Even with a potential second wave coming, there's money to be made in the short term. Dow should go to 30,000 soon. Jobs report was unbelievable yesterday. Things are only looking up and will continue to look up as the world opens. There's so much pent up demand across the board.

I'm not an investment advisor, so don't take my word for all this stuff.  Just what I'm seeing and buying.

[yadegari6]

1 hour ago, Yellot00tr said:

Yesterday was a banner day for the markets.   Unbelievable bets that paid off beautifully.  On top of the options on Halliburton (in the money on HAL Jul 17 $13 and HAL Jul $14, close on HAL Jul 17 $15 and HAL Jul 24 $17, slightly down on the options I bought yesterday for this position-Jul 24 $18) and the indexes (Jul 17 and July 24 calls), I recently bought options for these positions:

norwegian cruise (NCLH Jul 17 $22.50)

carnival cruise (CCL Jul 10 $19)

draftkings (DKNG Aug 21 $50)

Coty (Coty Jul 17 $6 and Aug 21 $7)

american airlines (AAL Aug 21 $20). 

These options all hit yesterday and i had a 85% gain for the day.  At every downtick I'm adding to these positions or selling them and rebuying.

I think there's at least 20% more upside to this market.  Even with a potential second wave coming, there's money to be made in the short term. Dow should go to 30,000 soon. Jobs report was unbelievable yesterday. Things are only looking up and will continue to look up as the world opens. There's so much pent up demand across the board.

I'm not an investment advisor, so don't take my word for all this stuff.  Just what I'm seeing and buying.

It has been a crazy run, been holding HAL since $6 and DKNG since $30. I opened long positions on JELD and APOG last Monday in anticipation of glass manufacturers/installers booking huge revenue from the looting destruction. Ended being up 25% for the week on both of those and still holding. Interested to see what this week ahead brings, cheers!

[prodigy]

I only just started playing around with stocks. My dad and brother convinced me to play around with Robin hood, and it has been fun but I still have so much to learn. It was nice waking up Friday and seeing my Vislink had went from 0.26/share to 1.50!

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[Yellot00tr]

Love seeing guys make money. 

[Habana Mike]

Almost bounced back from the low. Lots of buy opportunities right now.

[Yellot00tr]

NCLH, HAL, AAL, CCL are all making a run for the roses premarket. Everything is up 11-15% already.
 

they’re running like looters being chased by the nypd - but in a good way.

[Wertman]

Can some one start a new thread about stocks here.  That would be really. I’ll so many super smart people and I know nothing about this.

 

[Nino]

Being retired airline staff all I can say is this :

?

[Habana Mike]

Especially more true now than ever...

[Yellot00tr]

Economy tickets are cheap. Business are about the same as last yr I think. Maybe little less, but not much. Worth it to buy economy and upgrade, but then you lose ability to build status.

[ReturnFreeRisk]

Here’s to hoping your BTC moves lately may fund more cigar purchases!


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