Greece

[jquest63]

I have to thank our Greek members for chiming in and really adding to the discussion. I have certainly learned a lot and seen a different angle which challenged some of my own viewpoints.

Isn't this what discussion is all about? In this case a Geoffrey Robertson "Hypothetical" where you roll out a main stream statement (pick up any newspaper on this subject) but the plot thickens as different factors come to light?

"Economic madness" is indeed a valid viewpoint when you look at the situation of the tax base (and lack of enforced systems) + the retirement age as a comparison to the state of the unfunded economy.

As an aside Ken is off to Melbourne I believe this weekend for a tasting of Greek Wines. I look forward to his review

Point taken and my mistake in quoting just "Economic madness" in haste. The intended quote was "which has for decades reveled in economic madness ". Which Greece most certainly has not.

Agree with concept of the main stream statement, however newpapers, tabloid like main stream media can be sensational, biased and incite stone throwing.

I too also look forward to Ken's review of Greek wine. Ashamed to say I have not tried enough of it.

[jquest63]

well... as a Greek myself I was not offended by Rob's initial post, it was obvious it was made with a touch of humor. I was a bit upset with the assessment made by some people during the thread, but I guess it is understandable. No one is obliged to know the exact financial status of a small country at the other side of the world, that just came up in the news. I was very happy by the balanced view many had.

Again, someone posted some stats from the wiki, which showed that Greece is a bigger player in the financial world than thought. The gist of the problem comes down to this:

-Greece has a serious tax evasion problem for decades.

-This problem became much more severe by complete incompetence by the previous government, that essentially dismantled any tax collecting/monitoring.

- In the meantime, for 15 years Greece was enjoying very low loan rates, which went into growth (average 5% for the decade, highest in EU), but also induced overspending,also spending 5% of GDP in military expenses (top spender worldwide last year)

-The combination of overspending and almost zero tax revenue the last 5 years blew the deficit out of proportion

- Hedge funds smelled blood and jumped on buying Greek security bonds

- That drove the spread (base rate between Germany borrowing and Greece) to the roof, being at 14% at the moment, making it impossible for Greece to get loans to repay the deficit.

-Greece needed either intervention of IMF-EU to lend "cheaply" (as I said, they still make money lending us...) or Greece to default.

-For the sake of the euro and Greece, IMF-EU loans were decided, but with very very very (very...) severe cuts, tax increases. Greek wages will drop by 20-25%, sales tax will go up from 21% to 25%, gas, tobacco, alcohol will also be highly taxed.

-Good news is that the present government tries to fight tax evasion and cut waste. IMF-EU will also oversee restructuring of services.

I think it will be a couple of really really tough years, but I am hopeful that Greece will come out stronger.

Then we can go on get the 2020 Olympics and spend any spare change from the 140bil loan

RedRum - Yiasou patrida

I am the one who posted the wiki info, because the of the tabloid like initial discussion point inviting a fair amount of nasty comments. Disagree with you on one thing though the nasty comments are not understandable they are what they are nasty and objectionable. Calling Greeks thieves, F**ks and turning Greece in US playland is nasty talk.

I too am Greek, raised with to spathiou tin tromeri

[El Presidente]

So, are you now the spokesman for Australia and the western world?

Yes, poorly put on my part.

We had a basket case economy reliant heavily on export agriculture. High unionism (aggressive unionism), multi layered inefectual government/public service, a 50's mentality to business in a fast developing world.

We were fortunate to have had back to back two effective treasurers and development ministers over roughly 18 years who transformed the Australian macro and micro economy. There was immense pain to many sectors.

The Asia crisis in the 90's was the first evidence that the pain was worthwhile. The economy changed market focus on a 20c piece and we were largely unaffected where previously we would have spiraled into recession. Dot com bust of 2000 same. GFC of 08/09...same.

Plenty of work still to do in terms of modernising infrastructure, balancing the taxation system to ensure long term international competitiveness, withdrawing (slowly) middle class welfare. The good news is that they are daily national topics of discussion.

[gersonmorelli]

Thanks to the Greek members for presenting a lot of info that I was not aware! I too agree that the generalization made by some was offensive and demeaning to the Greek people, as if Greece is Sodoma or Gomorra.

I sincerely hope the majority of honest people can handle the struggle during these next tough years for Greece.

[mkz]

I have to thank our Greek members for chiming in and really adding to the discussion. I have certainly learned a lot and seen a different angle which challenged some of my own viewpoints.

My viewpoints have truly been challenged here. Now realizing I shouldnt base my opinions on whats being said in the mainstream media when it comes to this. Thanks to our greek brothers filling us in on this matter!

Regreting I used the F-word. Shouldnt post when in a bad mood, however it wasnt aimed at the good pople of greece but more my opinion of people being able to retire at 55 when others have to work until ready for the grave. I hope this isnt the case.

My opinion on bailouts is still the same: No mather if it is for countries, banks, airline companies or car manufacturers. For the greater good, let it fall even if it hurts.

Speaking of greece: Was visiting a good friend in Stockholm last weekend and we went out eating on a greek reastaurant (had souwlaki). I almost fell in love with one of the beauties working in the bar (dont tell my wife). Pure greek goddess!!

[Chaki]

- Hedge funds smelled blood and jumped on buying Greek security bonds

- That drove the spread (base rate between Germany borrowing and Greece) to the roof, being at 14% at the moment, making it impossible for Greece to get loans to repay the deficit.

-For the sake of the euro and Greece, IMF-EU loans were decided, but with very very very (very...) severe cuts, tax increases. Greek wages will drop by 20-25%, sales tax will go up from 21% to 25%, gas, tobacco, alcohol will also be highly taxed.

RedRum, I agree with most of what you said. The points above are worth discussing (if you'll indulge me for a bit more )

- Hedge funds did not buy Greek bonds. They might have sold it if they had it or take a short position if they didn't. That would drive yields up as you correctly pointed out. Buying bonds would make their price go up and yield go down (price and yield of a bond move in reverse relationship). In any case, the spread with German bonds (Bunds) is determined by all market participants (banks, institutional investors etc), not only hedge funds. I know it is a popular sport at the moment to blame everything on speculators but that is not correct in the case of Greece.

- IMF-EU did not cut anything. They made their loans conditional on the Greeks themselves presenting a credible restructuring plan. It's up to the Greeks to do it or not. Best wishes!

[RedRum]

@mkz no problem my friend, no one can know everything. I will disagree with you on the point of anything that fails we need to let it default. I think economics is a bit more complicated than that, but I can see why you think this way. Just to remind you that is what happened in the great depression in the US in the 1920s. The economy contracted, business was failing but President Harding, instead of doing what economies did now (providing fiscal stimulus), made severe cuts and halved the GDP, which of course was disastrous as we know. We were able to get out recession this time because we did the opposite, pumped money into the economy and encouraged growth.

In a perfect world that was the way Greece should go... the cuts in the economy will be very problematic if the economy keeps receding. It is a vicious cyrcle... less growth, smaller GDP, smaller revenue from taxes, more deficit... etc...

so although in principle the "correct" thing would be to just let problematic institutions default and close down, this in real life does not always work (of course in some cases there is no other way).

Good luck getting that greek goddess out of your head

@Chaki I completely agree with what you say. I just presented things very crudely.

Thanks everyone for the stimulating discussion

[Chaki]

most of us have no idea of what daily life is like for the average Greek in Greece - Agreed, based on responses

That is correct but besides the point. Not knowing anything about daily life in Greece is not a prerequisite in responding to Rob's initial question. I don't care what country you talk about, big, small, white, brown, pleasant daily life, tough daily life, if your debt is equal to your GDP, you are in trouble. And it does not matter what your GDP is made of, manufacturing, agriculture or tourism or its size (but thanks for the Wiki cut-and-paste).

[SethG]

It's so silly to blame other countries and economies for the failure of Greece's, the country is run by incompetents and it's people believe that the past 100 years of history is always someone elses fault.

It belongs next door to Iceland, two international jokes.

[GeneralLee]

Good morning brothers of the leaf from sunny Greece

Please forgive my poor english but it's been a long time since I communicated with someone in English.

Let me tell you some things more about Greece. First of all,it's all our fault.We voted for all the incompetent politicians and allowed them to ruin everything.

For the last 100 years Greece has met with 2 world wars,one german occupation,2 balkan wars,one civil war,one military junta and now one economic junta by the EU/IMF committee.All of these,just to stay on the free western free-market block.First British and then U.S funds and interests run the political system of Greece-lately it's the EU loans that do the job.Fine with me,that's the price one has to pay to be called free European today.

There are 2 Greeces today,the one of the free market,the one I belong to,and there are the public servants,the people hired by the state for their votes,the people paid by my taxes,the ones with the 55y.o retirement limit and 35hrs per week job.

I work 60hrs per week,6 days,I pay 40% of my income in taxes-and I do pay them-and I expect to reach retirement at the age of 67-that is if the IMF doesn't change that to 70.

Meanwhile,U.S military interests want Greece to pay huge amounts of taxes on an ongoing conflict between Greece and Turkey(both partners in NATO,funny eh? ) , EU interests want Greece to deal with millions of Asian economic immigrants that try to pour into Europe and German interests want to keep the trouble with the bailout going profiting from the Euro-dollar rates.All these keep happening while I pay french or german prices in the market and the average income of the greek people is 25% lower.

But,it's all my fault.I voted for all those klowns all these years hoping they could lead us to a better tomorrow.Now I only hope that the IMF bureaucrats will clean the mess and show us the road that we lost trying staying Europeans.

Other than that,my other concern is that my precious Habanos will soon become unreachable

[Ryan]

I hope my Nana Mouskouri comment earlier didn't cause too much offense.

Seriously though, it's not likely that the bailout won't happen. It'll cause a few tough years and from what I've seen, many Greeks won't take it lying down, unlike the Irish.

We were on the brink 18 months ago and we're still not far from it. The joke around Europe at the time was "What's the difference between Ireland and Iceland?", "One letter and three months".

A few emergency budgets later, everybody's making less money, paying more taxes and we're still far from being out of it, unemployment has ballooned and the public sector unions are very close to all-out strikes.

Again, it was caused by a government with it's hands on too much easy money, bending every lending regulation and throwing money at public systems to "fix" them without asking where it was going. That, and it has to be said, plenty of greed and complacency on the part of the populace.

When it was looking like we might need a bailout from Europe, we here were hearing similar arguments Greece is hearing now, why would Germany bail out Ireland when, for example, our public hospital consultants start on €200,000/year. In Germany it's half that. I agree with that argument. Our taoiseach (prime minister) makes 3 times Angela Merkel's salary.

It's going to take tightening and hardship for a lot of people but you'll come out of it.

By the way, I've yet to try a Domenico. Are they any good?

[GeneralLee]

I'll try to give you a quick taste of Domenicos. Think of the Cohiba Siglo VI Gran Reserva.........ok? are you thinking of it right now?.....................

It's the exact opposite,total waste of money !

On the other hand,unlike my fellow Greeks RedRum and Leonidas,my opinion is biased. I utterly dislike any cigar that is not cuban,so maybe you should ask for a second opinion.

[Leonidas]

Being older than the other two mates, I take the opportunity to thank everyone for the welcome in your forum.

Thank you also for being broadminded and reading us. Those that do not believe us, so be it. I thank them too. I think it is fair criticism.

On a private note, I surfed in your forum and found it to be as exiting as the one we share and treasure in Greece.

I will be touching base soon, hopefully you will welcome me in other threads as well.

Take care people.

Leonidas

[Kangaroo495]

Just a question - is it one of you guys who writes reviews in Greek on cigars-review.org? Would be good to see some in English too, as the reviews look quite detailed!

[RedRum]

nope, we are looking for him too for our greek forum! The guy is bloody genius!

[jquest63]

I hope my Nana Mouskouri comment earlier didn't cause too much offense.

Well, I'm over it now. Here's a vid of my two of my favorite artists: Nana Mouskouri and Demis Roussos. Enjoy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dbq1zIQ0IPU

[jquest63]

Interesting perspective on this topic:

Hurriyet Daily News

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Semih Idiz

A Western diplomat suggested the other day that Turks must be deriving pleasure from the situation that Greece is in today. This reflects the age-old preconception that Turks and Greeks are enemies to the end.

There is little, in fact, to gloat over for Turks in the problems the Greeks are facing today. Turks have been down that road and understand the situation.

Reports emerging prior to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s upcoming visit to Athens of Turkey’s willingness to help Greece face its economic hardships should not be read as “rubbing salt into Greek wounds” either. Not withstanding the momentous and painful events of history, Greeks and Turks have much more latent empathy for each other in times of adversity than many in Europe would assume.

Many in the West can not understand, for example, why the founder of modern Greece, Eeftherios Venizelos, would nominate Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of the Turkish Republic and his bitter enemy of a just a few years past, for the Nobel Peace Prize – as he did in 1934.

Only five years after that, when the city of Erzincan was devastated by a 1939 earthquake that killed tens of thousands of people, the Greeks were among the first to rush to the aid of the Turks.

Money was collected by municipalities across the country, and collections stands were set up in the center of Athens – of which photographs exist today – with posters in Greek and Turkish reading “Help our Turkish brothers.”

Major adversity struck Greece next, with the Nazi occupation in 1941. One of the things that characterized this period was the horrible starvation that the people of Greece suffered. Photographs of that period are heart-rending.

The Turkish ship Kurtuluş (Liberation) ferried food and medicine from Turkey to the Greeks; it eventually sank in 1942 while carrying out this mission. A documentary has been made about the ship and its crew, and features interviews with Greeks who recall how they used to wait in great anticipation for the ship’s arrival.

Other historical facts include such things as the Turkish communist volunteers’ brigade during the Greek civil war, its most notable member being the legendary Mihri Belli, a devoted Turkish communist to the very end.

Then, during the Greek junta of 1967-1974, democratic Turkey was one of the safe escape routes for many Greek intellectuals, artists, writers and politicians, including the late Melina Mercouri, who told us the story of her escape during her visit to Ankara as minister for culture in May 1988.

The event that soured Turkish-Greek relations overnight was, of course, the operation against Cyprus by Turkey in 1974, following a coup on the island by supporters of union with Greece, who were backed by the junta in Athens. We are still paying the price for that coup today.

Despite the great animosity this created between the two countries over the following two and a half decades, the massive earthquake in Turkey in 1999 proved that the “latent empathy factor” between the two nations had not disappeared. Many recall how it was the Greek people that were once again, as they were in 1939, among the first to extend a helping hand to Turks during that major disaster.

The resulting outpouring of positive emotion on both sides laid the groundwork for the rapprochement achieved by Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, the country’s foreign minister at the time, and the late Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem.

These examples show the limits of the black-and-white interpretation that Europeans have cultivated about Turkish-Greek relations, which do not always fit into preconceived molds. So, to return to today, it is clear that, barring fringe elements, Turks are not deriving any sublimated pleasure from the hardship faced by Greeks.

On the other hand, they are deriving a lot of pleasure from seeing the way the European Union has failed to fulfill some major expectations during this crisis, by not coming in time to help a member state that is suffering from problems other EU members are beset with too.

Turks are also noting the sudden animosity Greeks feel for Germans today, as a result of the belittling manner in which German politicians and the German media are referring to Greeks. For all the positive feelings other Europeans have cultivated toward Greeks, mostly based on notions concerning classical Greece rather than contemporary Greece, this whole episode has shown what the average European really feels about this nation when push comes to shove.

Arnold Toynbee is reputed to have said that Turks are Europeanized Orientals, while Greeks are Orientalized Europeans. This contention is open to debate, of course, but the things being written in the German press today suggest that this perception is not far from the surface, and only requires a serious problem in order to emerge.

All of this aside though, the economic crisis in Greece is not to Turkey’s advantage either, contrary to what some people may think. First, the euro is dropping seriously as a result of this crisis, which is terrible for Turkey at the start of the tourism season and also in terms of its exports.

In addition, the crisis comes at time when economic cooperation between the two countries has been increasing. Turkish businessmen know, therefore, that what is bad for Greece is not necessarily good for Turkey.

At any rate, for all the foot dragging and finger waving by self-righteous Europeans, it is clear that the EU will “save Greece” in the end, and that Germany will play a major role in this, regardless of whether the average German likes it or not. It will not do this not for Greece’s sake, but for its own.

In other words, it will save Greece to ensure the EU’s economic stability and the future of the euro. If it were just a matter of Greece, it seems many would prefer to see the country leave the eurozone, especially after German Chancellor Angela Merkel openly suggested that Greece was admitted prematurely.

There will, of course, be serious strings attached for Greeks in all this, and a consequent social fall-out. Greeks will be getting poorer, not richer, over the next few years.

The Turks can empathize with this also, given how the IMF’s so-called “belt-tightening formulas” in the past ended up doing so little for the average person on the street, except make his or her life much harder. So Turks are not gloating over Greece’s difficulties, because they have been there and they know what it is like.

[jquest63]

Bailout Update

Greece Accepts EU-IMF Bailout Package

2 May, 2010 Share| A+ A-

Greek prime minister George Papandreou today said that his government has accepted the terms of a EU-IMF bailout package expected to be worth 120 billion euros that might force him to take strict fiscal and monetary measures, including budget cuts worth 10% of GDP.

Related News

Greek Bank Stocks Rise as European Stocks Fall

Without providing comprehensive details of the bailout, the prime minister stressed, "Avoiding bankruptcy is a national red line. I did and will do everything so the country doesn't go bankrupt."

He added, "We have built the support mechanism out of nothing. A few days ago we asked for its activation and today we ratify the agreement. It is an unprecedented support package for an unprecedented effort by the Greek people."

Papandreou noted that Athens has convinced the Eurozone members that Greece's problem is not only theirs, rather it affects the functioning of the markets and will also prove detrimental for stability of the euro.

However, he made it clear that the country would have to make "great sacrifices", adding, "these sacrifices will give us breathing space and the time we need to make great changes." He also said that the proposed measures were likely to affect public sector pay and pensions, not the private sector. The reports have suggested that the measures might include a rise in consumer taxes, and deep cuts in defence spending and hospital procurement.

The bail-out package is expected to be revealed in Brussels later today.

On his part, Greece finance minister George Papaconstantinou added that his country would make budget cuts of 30 billion euros in order to reduce budget deficit to below 3 per cent by 2014. Justifying the government's decision to agree for the bailout, Papaconstantinou said, "The country faced a choice between collapse or salvation."

[sje]

well said on many accounts Leonidas,

and it was nice having a coffee with you yesterday and thanks for cigars, at least our spending here will support some of you upmarket Greeks,

ya sou my friend it was lovely to see sophia also

spiro

[GeneralLee]

Good evening b.o.t.l.

I'm in the very sad place to inform you about the situation in Greece now.Sadly,as we all expected, due to the new "stability and development" plan of the goverment,there was a 24hrs general strike which turned to ...bloodshed.There were 3 innocent bank employees dead due to a petrol bomb attack at a bank store in the center of Athens today and it's only day 1 of the peoples reaction to everything we've been discussing here a couple of days ago and everyone is afraid it's going to escalate.Bad day for Greece,bad day for Greeks and I'm in a very bad mood .

[Ryan]

Good evening b.o.t.l.

I'm in the very sad place to inform you about the situation in Greece now.Sadly,as we all expected, due to the new "stability and development" plan of the goverment,there was a 24hrs general strike which turned to ...bloodshed.There were 3 innocent bank employees dead due to a petrol bomb attack at a bank store in the center of Athens today and it's only day 1 of the peoples reaction to everything we've been discussing here a couple of days ago and everyone is afraid it's going to escalate.Bad day for Greece,bad day for Greeks and I'm in a very bad mood .

I'm just watching that on the news, terrible stuff.

[El Presidente]

Good evening b.o.t.l.

I'm in the very sad place to inform you about the situation in Greece now.Sadly,as we all expected, due to the new "stability and development" plan of the goverment,there was a 24hrs general strike which turned to ...bloodshed.There were 3 innocent bank employees dead due to a petrol bomb attack at a bank store in the center of Athens today and it's only day 1 of the peoples reaction to everything we've been discussing here a couple of days ago and everyone is afraid it's going to escalate.Bad day for Greece,bad day for Greeks and I'm in a very bad mood .

Heart wrenching stuff.The death of the people involved, a nation tearing itself apart.

My heart goes out to you and to all Greeks.

[laficion]

I just saw this on the news tonight, I'm very sad about the death

of these 3 innocent people, very sad situation indeed for all Greeks.

[First Lady]

My heart goes out to the innocent people who are just trying to make a living.. Unfortunately a very good Brisbane member has just flown to Greece two days ago for his honeymoon and we we were discussing his trip they were staying 2 streets away from where the rioting happens last time , I hope he is safe and is able to get out of the problem areas

Lisa

[RedRum]

one of the women who died was pregnant... I think this is one of the saddest days in modern Greek history. I live in the UK, but I am really in shock... where has this beautiful country come to? Will now everyone realise the severity of the situation? The only hope for my country is that everyone, every party, every big company, every union, will realise how serious things are, sit down and find a solution.

The easiest thing that can be done for now is prices to go down. It is a disgrace that Greece is one of the most expensive countries in europe for everyday shopping, clothing, food.We have the most expensive milk in europe, the most expensive bread, I mean... WTF??? how can the same can of tuna be 15% cheaper in the UK than in Greece?? how is it possible that Greek yogurt is more expensive in Greece than in the UK??? there is something wrong in the way that the market works, and needs to be sorted.

What happened is the culmination of the indulgence of unions and parties, that think that they own the right to paralyse the country. I have no political affiliation, but I was disgusted when I heard the two political parties who organised the demonstrations (communist and left party) to pass the blame to government led provocators that wanted to demoralise the public to stop demostrating... are you ******* kidding me??? really... are you ******* kidding me???

the other day, on the TV, one member of the Greek communist part said that he does not accept the constitution or the law, he thinks that the law is what is right for the workers. It is exactly this psychotic/delusional warped sense of reality that led to this tragedy...

I am sincerely crashed... I cannot believe this is happening to my country... people being burned alive because they were working in a private bank and decided not to strike...