Is the Lifting of the Embargo getting farther away?

[El Presidente]

Just throwing it out there.

14 months ago I thought the embargo would be lifted toward the end of Obama's first term. The right noises were certainly being made, if hands of friendship not exactly extended ...the fists unclenched.

Over the past three months momentum appears to have stalled. Does anyone else in the US get this feeling? We are a long way away from the action here in OZ but the sense is that domestic political issues have held sway and that dropping poll numbers may make the dropping of the embargo more and more politically difficult.

What are the chances of a lifting of the embargo before the end of the first term in your opinion?

[ImTripN2]

I believe the chances are nil. He is way overwhelmed and way underqualified. With the economy, the Middle East and his health care agenda, I doubt much of anything will get his attention for the rest of his term. He came in with a ambitious agenda, but now it is politics as usual, and he seems to have lost his charm, and his poll numbers are dropping faster that a half smoked Jose Piedra.

[ChanceSchmerr]

I think it's a possibility still, but less likely than was thought at the start of Obama term 1. I'm not in the US per say, but close enough to pay attention to the news channels, and from what I gather, there's far too much going on at home to worry about Cuba. Stuff like the Christmas security near-breach doesn't help.

I ask any Admiral/Senior officer I can in the Navy to see if there's any push to get a Canadian Navy presence/port Visit/attache position (my dream job ) in Havana, but as long as the embargo remains, any Canadian ship that would stop in Cuba would have a hell of a time subsequently visiting an American Port.....So I'm praying for it to end too! You can bet I'll be on the first Canadian frigate that sails in to Havana!!

[jfury76]

I believe the chances are nil. He is way overwhelmed and way underqualified. With the economy, the Middle East and his health care agenda, I doubt much of anything will get his attention for the rest of his term. He came in with a ambitious agenda, but now it is politics as usual, and he seems to have lost his charm, and his poll numbers are dropping faster that a half smoked Jose Piedra.

Great analogy there with the Piedra. I, too, agree with your sentiments wholeheartedly, and I would assume that Obama is not going to touch anything more this term that would be mind-blowing if actually realized. I think Obama bit off way more than he could possibly chew even with Ted Kennedy's little black book, and we all know that Teddy is no longer with us.

Obama better get off his high horse soon before the proletarian masses and swing voters lose faith in this young upstart with lots of glittering talk and minimal action.

[cigarros]

I believe the chances are nil. He is way overwhelmed and way underqualified. With the economy, the Middle East and his health care agenda, I doubt much of anything will get his attention for the rest of his term. He came in with a ambitious agenda, but now it is politics as usual, and he seems to have lost his charm, and his poll numbers are dropping faster that a half smoked Jose Piedra.

Agree. Never since brothers Castro onto a power

[Bartolomeo]

I think its probably on Obama's list, but way down the list as there are a lot bigger issues he needs to address first and foremost.

Bart

[demiurgic]

Obama's plate heapith' over!! the man is eating as fast as he can.

Emerging Health bill (oh look Cuba's got the right idea here, so munch away oBAMer, you're the man! for trying to make a go at this) The Economy!, a foiled 'terroir' attack recently at christmas time...some Wall street Execs getting 8 figure bales of bailout hay money after scamming the govermnet for it (this happened in January 2010 I believe).

Munch! munch!

Let's not even get into the intracacies of the Babylonian situation and the boys waiting for their ride home after a near DECADE long war.

After all this pending 'chomp'age the man must endure, I doubt that embargo against the little nation will be lifted anytime soon, and I do hope relatives can still easily travel to and fro from both sides. Amen

[Ken Gargett]

no. every day it gets a day closer. the problem is that we have no idea when that will be. i suspect that what you really meant is that 'is the perception of when it is likely' getting further off.

but on a more serious note, i never thought it would be a first term initiative. be a politician and make the right noises so you don't lose votes and then if he genuinely wanted to do the right thing, lift it in the 2nd term. could not see it first term. too potentially electorallly explosive (perhaps if he had massive support for several years so could do what he wanted and be re-elected but that was never going to last).

working here on the assumption, which i still believe, that obama will have a 2nd term. but i think a number of the other guys that have posted are probably right. he just has so much going on. hard to see that lessening before he leaves office, whenever that is. cuba is a minor issue for them right now. of course, if he or his advisors thought it was a vote earner then it would happen in a flash (as it would with any politician).

the other possibility which i would not rule out is that things are such crap elsewhere that he drops the embargo as a diversion to other problems. the media would be all over it so whatever other crap was happening would be left alone for a bit.

[SethG]

I think everything we hoped he would do was wishful thinking, I challenge anyone to find anything he said about him dropping the embargo.

It's just now they're starting to point out that people with opposite viewpoints have a way of meeting with him and saying "phew, glad he agreed with me!"

Look at the healthcare bill, did he or did he not bash on individual mandates did he or did he not support the public option? No one seems to casually know the answers to these questions, least of all his closest supporters.

i say the embargo stays until he's a lame duck or someone else pushes it.

[El Presidente]

I think its probably on Obama's list, but way down the list as there are a lot bigger issues he needs to address first and foremost.

Bart

Bart...just got to say how much I love your avatar

[jquest63]

Snowballs chance in hell the first term and slim to none the second. Lobby against Cuba is too strong.

[sungnicholas]

Agree on what's been said in this thread that it is very unlikely in his first term. I expect that once (if) Obama gets health care passed in some form and if the economy stabilizes, then some of his lower agenda items like Cuba might see the light of day.

If the stars align on his major objectives, I see this as a 2nd term possibility (if he gets re-elected) in his last 2 years of office where he doesn't have to worry about it affecting re-election (since U.S. presidents can only hold office for 2 terms). Before then, it is too much of a hot potato to touch that might jeopardize the big things he wants to accomplish.

That said, I'm really curious once the embargo is lifted, the impact to Cuban cigars. I've read contrasting views on this but it makes sense that Cuba can only produce so many good quality cigars and when production went up in the 90's, by all accounts, the quality severely suffered (I wasn't smoking cigars then, let alone Cubans so this is all hearsay). Then it makes sense that once the U.S. market opens up for legal sales of Cuban cigars, that either the quality of CCs will suffer or more likely, the price of CCs will skyrocket. Do people agree? I've been stocking up on CCs thinking that they won't be as affordable soon--let me know if I'm off-base here.

[CigarmanTim]

but on a more serious note, i never thought it would be a first term initiative. be a politician and make the right noises so you don't lose votes and then if he genuinely wanted to do the right thing, lift it in the 2nd term. could not see it first term. too potentially electorallly explosive (perhaps if he had massive support for several years so could do what he wanted and be re-elected but that was never going to last).

working here on the assumption, which i still believe, that obama will have a 2nd term.

In my opinion it becomes less and less likely in his second go round since he certainly will not enjoy the number of seats the democrats control in the Senate nor the House. It will be nowhere near the numbers he has now so I doubt it will happen at all with Obama. but at least it was approached and with the younger generations of Cubans favoring ending the embargo...it will happen. eventually.

[Ginseng]

My perception is the likelihood drops, albeit slightly, every day. There are simply other far more pressing issues deserving of Obama's and our attention. Also, as Obama gets "dirtied" by the doing of his job, he'll be less able to rely on the mere fact of his presence to push policy changes. Would I like to see it dropped? I believe so. Will it come during Obama's term(s). There is little evidence this will be the case. I wrote my senator about the issue and the essence of his reply was that it all hinges on political reform in Cuba. And we all know how likely that is to happen.

In other words, I'm not holding my breath.

Wilkey

[celsis]

My perception is the likelihood drops, albeit slightly, every day. There are simply other far more pressing issues deserving of Obama's and our attention. Also, as Obama gets "dirtied" by the doing of his job, he'll be less able to rely on the mere fact of his presence to push policy changes. Would I like to see it dropped? I believe so. Will it come during Obama's term(s). There is little evidence this will be the case. I wrote my senator about the issue and the essence of his reply was that it all hinges on political reform in Cuba. And we all know how likely that is to happen.

In other words, I'm not holding my breath.

Wilkey

I think the problem is that American big business doesn't see anything they want to steal. They see the tobacco fields, but really, is it a gain for the likes of General Cigar or Swedish Match?

Aslo, there is a universal medical system which the Cubans would NEVER give up and having experienced it, I agree with them! There is also a highly educated workforce that would not put up with the crap doled out to people like the Haitians. All in all, if American big business thought they could make an easy buck, the embargo would come down tomorrow!

[PADDYWHACK121272]

I have always felt that it wold take the passing of Fidel for the lifting of the embargo to be seriously considered.....

[Colt45]

it all hinges on political reform in Cuba.

Bingo!

[acidmase]

In my personal opinion I am happy that they haven't lifted the embargo! If the u.s lifts that embargo their will be another cigar boom in the U.S and the quality of CC's will go into the toilet and the prices will be astronomical.

[Jesuscookies]

Despite all the happy well wishers, it was never close in the first place. Until Cuba bows down and accepts the US as their masters there will be no embargo lifting.

This type of rumbling seems to happen every time we get a left leaning president, and in the end it is always the same, embargo still in place.

Just throwing it out there.

14 months ago I thought the embargo would be lifted toward the end of Obama's first term. The right noises were certainly being made, if hands of friendship not exactly extended ...the fists unclenched.

Over the past three months momentum appears to have stalled. Does anyone else in the US get this feeling? We are a long way away from the action here in OZ but the sense is that domestic political issues have held sway and that dropping poll numbers may make the dropping of the embargo more and more politically difficult.

What are the chances of a lifting of the embargo before the end of the first term in your opinion?

[Jimmy2]

Quote acidmase :

In my personal opinion I am happy that they haven't lifted the embargo! If the u.s lifts that embargo their will be another cigar boom in the U.S and the quality of CC's will go into the toilet and the prices will be astronomical.

My Opinion

Not likely to happen they learned from the mistakes from 99/01 and have been waiting for the US market to open as they know alot of their cigars already reach the shores today and is one of the reasons they have been much better in the last 3 years.

Other stores around the world will get less as Cigars start coming into the US market but hell alot !! have already been coming in for years anyway..

Also they will see the demand and will have to adjust their production slowly so they keep the quality the same as now or better.

The only prices that will go up is the US selling Cuban cigars and thats it...

I have more points to this topic....

[Wiley]

I think the problem is that American big business doesn't see anything they want to steal. They see the tobacco fields, but really, is it a gain for the likes of General Cigar or Swedish Match?

Aslo, there is a universal medical system which the Cubans would NEVER give up and having experienced it, I agree with them! There is also a highly educated workforce that would not put up with the crap doled out to people like the Haitians. All in all, if American big business thought they could make an easy buck, the embargo would come down tomorrow!

From WAY out in left field... you sir watch too many movies, or something.

Outside of Florida, Americans don't know where Cuba is on a map and really couldn't give a crap. The embargo with Cuba is just messy political bullsh*t. It seems unlikely Obama will have the clout to ignore the crying Floridians and barking Republicans that would come with lifting the embargo in his second term, but here's to hoping.

[Jimmy2]

Do you really think Obama will have a 2nf term !!! LOL

He is finished and after the big loss in NJ, VA recently and now MASS tomorrow when a Rep will win it is written in stone one term for Obama..

[vivalanation734]

Personally, as an American, for the sake of Habanos, I don't want the embargo to end and I don't think it will

[android]

Not going to happen with Obama!!

[gfoster]

For the sake of the Cuban population, I would like the embargo to end. For the sake of my own new and growing appreciation for habanos, I'm not that keen on it lifting. In the balance, I think the Cuban population being helped out is a little more important than the possibility of me getting substandard and high priced habanos, so I'll say yes, I hope the embargo lifts.

However, I don't believe it will, not this term anyway. Obama has his hands full fighting the fights he's currently involved in. Politics is a dirty muddy affair and there's no way he's going to get much else done while he's embroiled in the health-care issues (which are a HUGE snarling mess).

-- Gary F.