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Posted

I have stayed away from bourbon in general over the past couple of years because prices had become unrealistic IMO.

I was pleasantly surprised though when I visited the liquor store last week to pick up some "holiday cheer". Many of the mainline brands like Maker's Mark, Woodford, etc. were selling for ~ $25 which has made me think about starting to drink bourbon again.

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Posted

US whiskey producers need to work building market in India. There's a lot of business to grow and they haven't focused on it the way they should.  

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Posted

The tides were already turning with oversupply and the additional trade uncertainty and costs didn't help. Add to that a new generation that doesn't drink, and you've got a crisis coming. 

The consumers worked themselves into a frenzy over the stuff in the last 10 yrs - following distribution trucks on delivery days, buying and flipping even regular bottles on the secondary market creating an even greater shortage and further panic. 

Some distilleries increased production thinking a boom was the new norm and are now faced with a bleak future. Some held the line knowing all booms pass and keeping QC high by not dumping under-aged barrels for consumption - they were vilified by the consumer just so they could get their hands on a bottle of something 'special '. The grudges by the entitled are still held by many.

It doesn't matter what the product is - these cycles will always exist in a free market, so adapt to new conditions wisely.

Cheers!

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Posted

Market saturation by NDP’s (Non-Distiller Producers) is a big factor IMO. 95% of bourbon in the world is produced where I live. It’s ALL produced by about half a dozen distillers. NDP’s throw in catch phrases like “heritage, small batch, single barrel, ect.” to make consumers feel like they are getting something rare, exclusive, or exotic. The use a “unique recipe”, change the bottle and label and send it out into the world. Lipstick on a pig. Too many choices. Way too many. 90% of the time I browse the bourbon section for 20 minutes at the local grocery store and pick up the same thing I always do. Why gamble on something they may be a dud in a pretty bottle. No one is going to build a distillery and rick houses to sit on millions of dollars worth of inventory for 4 years minimum when someone with deep pockets can do that for you and assume that risk. It’s easier to rent than own in this scenario.

I can see a parallel in the cigar industry in this regard as well. Too many choices in the NC market. Fancy it up, market the s**t out of it, hope a certain magazine puts you in their top 25, etc. I’m sure you don’t start out in the cigar industry by building a cigar factory and buying tons of tobacco to age. You buy aged tobacco from someone. You roll in a space you probably don’t own yourself.

All bubbles burst eventually.

Just my 2 cents.

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Posted

Fine bourbon whiskey has shown consistent growth (even with/prior COVID being factored). Bourbon production and capacity follows 5 year "cycles" in which surplus or deficit can be projected. As members have already discussed, the next few years should hold more availability at better prices. Knob Creek, Buffalo Trace, and many other distillers are already pivoting towards aging stock a bit longer to combat the affects of gross surplus (Eagle Rare 12 year release, Knob Creek 23 year release). Anything distilled by MGP (distiller conglomerate) with low or no age statement is going to be first on the chopping block. Me personally, I enjoy a good barrel strength non-MGP distillate. My pallet favors grape and stone fruit so naturally I gravitate to Buffalo Trace's Stagg, Eagle Rare, and other kinds of alcohol like Cognac.

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