The Economist: Cuba is heading for disaster, unless its regime changes drastically

[LizardGizmo]

A data rich analysis of Cuba's collapsing economic/social/political reality (a paywall-free link):

https://archive.ph/84d3A#selection-1283.0-1315.719

[Reuben]

Great article. I read another article that stated Russian use to help Cuba with resources and that led to a facade that things were a little bit better, but those resources no longer come Cuba's way. The country and the poor Cuban people are left with what the country truly is under communist rule!!!  So Sad

[NYGuido]

Thanks so much for posting this article, which really broke things down to a fine powder in a way I haven’t seen in a single source. Things don’t seem as bad as we think they are—they seem WORSE! And that’s saying something. 

After the NGO report about prisoners rolling cigars, folks starting considering the ethics and morality of supporting Habanos. But this article makes it even starker. Habanos makes money for the very government that refuses to provide for its people. The money doesn’t trickle down. It doesn’t make it to those who need it. It doesn’t clothe the needy or feed starving children. It enriches those who already have everything but choose to give the people nothing. 

I know we all love Cuban cigars on this forum. And I know that the prison report, HSA pricing, QC issues, etc., have made some of us reconsider whether and how to consume these magnificent products. But this article shows the real reason that maybe it’s time to stop or at least dramatically curtail our purchasing: the very people who grow, harvest, roll, band, and box Cuban cigars are starving and dying under the yoke of those who profit from their enterprise without any modicum of appreciation or basic human care. 

I’ve only gotten into Cuban cigars relatively recently, but articles like this—SUFFERING like this—coupled with increasingly great new world alternatives may have me finally making a change to what I add to my humidor from here on out. 

[El Presidente]

I have mentioned this on our FOH Discord sessions. There are several within within our industry that don't see it lasting 12 months. I am not quite sure. My bet was 24 months. 

[JPark3]

The sacking of Alejandro Gil is yet another example. The changes Cuba needs are far too drastic for the regime to maintain power and they can't keep scapegoating people. They failed to evolve and became too reliant on being a propped up state. With the pressure on Venezuela, I don't see things lasting much longer, either. 

Seeing the video of Diaz-Canel snapping at a citizen just for saying she doesn't have a mattress tells you everything.

[benfica_77]

This was an excellent read. Very succinct but also very dire. The collapse of the economy would not bode well for the cigar industry. 

[my happy place]

A Western diplomat says that “most Cubans with get-up-and-go have got up and gone.”

The brain-drain hits hard.

[unaslob]

4 hours ago, El Presidente said:

I have mentioned this on our FOH Discord sessions. There are several within within our industry that don't see it lasting 12 months. I am not quite sure. My bet was 24 months. 

So what does month 13 look like or 25? Perhaps a topic for another thread? I’ve wondered what a post fall of communist Cuba is going to look like and what that time line would look like. 10 years just another Caribbean island with a Sandals (not a bad thing. I like Sandals).   

[MrBirdman]

2 hours ago, unaslob said:

So what does month 13 look like or 25?

This is, to me, a significant impediment to change right now. You can convince people to leave the Titanic easily enough, but only if there’s some kind of lifeboat to jump into. Otherwise people usually will take their chances, even on a sinking ship. 

[JohnnyO]

There are several points the article fails to mention that is not helping the economy. MLC was created to be used as a digital monetary instrument parallel to the CUP. Although it still exists, there are no stores where you can purchase anything in MLC. Its Cuban Pesos or USD that run the market. Cuba barely has any government owned stores that sell products to the locals. They have been replaced by MIPYMES, small convenience stores that are owned by locals usually with some government ties. Prices of products are higher than the US and quality is suspect. There are no price controls so they are gouging the locals. There is no medicine in the hospitals, I hear of locals buying expired Tylenol/Motrin at twice the cost in the US. Those MIPYME owners have to pay taxes on their earnings. If you have cooked books, they take everything and put you in jail and it ain't no weekend stint at Club Fed.

COVID affected many locals mentally, resulting in a lot of heart attacks and suicides. The power outages are driving more locals to the brink of madness. There is a virus phenomenon with the mosquitos. Zika, Dengue, Oropouche, Chikungunya in Cuba now that is affecting whole neighborhoods. Many are bed ridden for a week, some as long as a month. The government doesn't fumigate anymore. I have to lather up in Deep Woods OFF and wear long sleeve shirts and pants just to keep the bites at a minimum. When I hand out the OFF repellent, locals kiss the bottles and give thanks to God like they were bars of gold.

There is much talk about the Cuban government buying commercial poultry at a discount from Brazil that was infected with avian influenza (bird flu) that was being banned by importers world wide. Here comes another virus that magically has no explanation. Most of my wife's family got it and the neighborhood. The icing on the cake is the immigration situation. Since Cubans are classified as terrorists by the current US administration they are no longer allowed into the US as visitors or humanitarian visas, even if you have another foreign passport. Also, there are millions that entered the US under these humanitarian visas and the US wants to send them back or to any other country that will take them (mostly Africa). The ones that had money, cars, houses left the country, so what is remaining is old folks and the poorest of all. So their state of mind is at its limits. But they'll find another way to screw it up even further. John

[helix]

Wow John , grim is an understatement. Country of the poor and aged starving sick people. 😟

[NYGuido]

@JohnnyO, how can we help as ordinary Americans, with no ties to Cuba, other than our love of the cigars and empathy for the people?

[WestCoastSmokin]

20 hours ago, JohnnyO said:

There are several points the article fails to mention that is not helping the economy. MLC was created to be used as a digital monetary instrument parallel to the CUP. Although it still exists, there are no stores where you can purchase anything in MLC. Its Cuban Pesos or USD that run the market. Cuba barely has any government owned stores that sell products to the locals. They have been replaced by MIPYMES, small convenience stores that are owned by locals usually with some government ties. Prices of products are higher than the US and quality is suspect. There are no price controls so they are gouging the locals. There is no medicine in the hospitals, I hear of locals buying expired Tylenol/Motrin at twice the cost in the US. Those MIPYME owners have to pay taxes on their earnings. If you have cooked books, they take everything and put you in jail and it ain't no weekend stint at Club Fed.

COVID affected many locals mentally, resulting in a lot of heart attacks and suicides. The power outages are driving more locals to the brink of madness. There is a virus phenomenon with the mosquitos. Zika, Dengue, Oropouche, Chikungunya in Cuba now that is affecting whole neighborhoods. Many are bed ridden for a week, some as long as a month. The government doesn't fumigate anymore. I have to lather up in Deep Woods OFF and wear long sleeve shirts and pants just to keep the bites at a minimum. When I hand out the OFF repellent, locals kiss the bottles and give thanks to God like they were bars of gold.

There is much talk about the Cuban government buying commercial poultry at a discount from Brazil that was infected with avian influenza (bird flu) that was being banned by importers world wide. Here comes another virus that magically has no explanation. Most of my wife's family got it and the neighborhood. The icing on the cake is the immigration situation. Since Cubans are classified as terrorists by the current US administration they are no longer allowed into the US as visitors or humanitarian visas, even if you have another foreign passport. Also, there are millions that entered the US under these humanitarian visas and the US wants to send them back or to any other country that will take them (mostly Africa). The ones that had money, cars, houses left the country, so what is remaining is old folks and the poorest of all. So their state of mind is at its limits. But they'll find another way to screw it up even further. John

Wow, thanks for the insight.