Chas.Alpha Posted January 21 Posted January 21 https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/trump-reverses-biden-move-puts-cuba-back-on-terrorism-list
El Presidente Posted January 21 Posted January 21 Well that was never in doubt. The interesting thing for me is whether wheeling and dealing with Cuba will get underway in this term. Cuba is on its knees and holds no cards bar the geopolitical one. Is it a situation that can be capitalised upon, to the point where the new US administration points to victory over communism and a win for Cuban expats and US business.
Chas.Alpha Posted January 21 Author Posted January 21 1 hour ago, El Presidente said: Well that was never in doubt. The interesting thing for me is whether wheeling and dealing with Cuba will get underway in this term. Cuba is on its knees and holds no cards bar the geopolitical one. Is it a situation that can be capitalised upon, to the point where the new US administration points to victory over communism and a win for Cuban expats and US business. In other words, the new administration might just be willing to trade the Ukraine for Cuba if the Chinese will play along? I have never understood the U.S sanctions past Khrushchev. Perhaps I never will. Canel isn’t going to cave to his people unless he has guarantees from Putin/Xi which won’t happen without U.S. concessions in other areas. The current administration will give those, especially since Valinskyy is viewed as having (slighted) the incoming president. I write this not as someone with even a layman’s understanding of this. It just has never made sense that Cuban ex-pats in the U.S. support restrictions that ultimately hurt their family that they left behind and have no effect on the regime that inspired them to leave. Did you ever notice that the Russian embassy complex looks a lot like a sword stabbed to the hilt into the heart of Cuba? Or is that just me?… CAH 1
El Presidente Posted January 22 Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Chas.Alpha said: In other words, the new administration might just be willing to trade the Ukraine for Cuba if the Chinese will play along? I have never understood the U.S sanctions past Khrushchev. Perhaps I never will. Canel isn’t going to cave to his people unless he has guarantees from Putin/Xi which won’t happen without U.S. concessions in other areas. The current administration will give those, especially since Valinskyy is viewed as having (slighted) the incoming president. I write this not as someone with even a layman’s understanding of this. It just has never made sense that Cuban ex-pats in the U.S. support restrictions that ultimately hurt their family that they left behind and have no effect on the regime that inspired them to leave. Did you ever notice that the Russian embassy complex looks a lot like a sword stabbed to the hilt into the heart of Cuba? Or is that just me?… CAH I am a little more hopeful. The new US administration is "transactional". Give the Miami Cubans a serious "win", US business a huge win, move Cuban current bias from Russia/China. It will be ugly initially. For Cuba Gov/military, they need to deal while remaining an element of control (at least over their assets). They need to keep power on or risk losing all. Maybe hopeful thinking my end.
Chas.Alpha Posted January 22 Author Posted January 22 12 minutes ago, El Presidente said: I am a little more hopeful. The new US administration is "transactional". Give the Miami Cubans a serious "win", US business a huge win, move Cuban current bias from Russia/China. It will be ugly initially. For Cuba Gov/military, they need to deal while remaining an element of control (at least over their assets). They need to keep power on or risk losing all. Maybe hopeful thinking my end. I like that we’re using “The New Administration” as a moniker, otherwise this would slip into U.S. politics and I’d have to BAN YOU FOR A WEEK!!! Just doing my duties…😈 1
El Presidente Posted January 22 Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Chas.Alpha said: I like that we’re using “The New Administration” as a moniker, otherwise this would slip into U.S. politics and I’d have to BAN YOU FOR A WEEK!!! Just doing my duties…😈 US Cuba politics has a pass
Chas.Alpha Posted January 22 Author Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, El Presidente said: US Cuba politics has a pass I’ll pass this along to @Ken Gargett for further legal analysis… 🤔
Ken Gargett Posted January 22 Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Chas.Alpha said: I’ll pass this along to @Ken Gargett for further analysis… 🤔 US politics pertaining to Cuba has always had a pass. anything rob says has also always had a pass. we do not live in an age of fairness and equality. my view, each party will carefully analyse the situation, look into how it affects every day Cubans, examine the hurt caused and benefits gained. then they will completely ignore all that and assess what will get them the most votes (or money in their accounts) and do that. 3 1
El Presidente Posted January 22 Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Ken Gargett said: US politics pertaining to Cuba has always had a pass. anything rob says has also always had a pass. we do not live in an age of fairness and equality. 1 1
Ken Gargett Posted January 22 Posted January 22 Just now, El Presidente said: isn't he the one who had his head chopped off? precedent is a powerful thing.
El Presidente Posted January 22 Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Ken Gargett said: isn't he the one who had his head chopped off? precedent is a powerful thing. oh don't me wrong, I have been expecting it for 20 years
Chas.Alpha Posted January 22 Author Posted January 22 @Ken Gargett it could be possible to muster our forces. You’ve got him on the reviews. I could attack from the flank? Weather permitting, it might lead to an overthrow…
El Presidente Posted January 22 Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Chas.Alpha said: Weather permitting, it might lead to an overthrow… Seriously, Ken takes over? You?......last time we were on zoom you were dressed in Deb's dressing gown. 1
Chas.Alpha Posted January 22 Author Posted January 22 Ok. The dress was a one-off. Just trying it on for size. 😔 1
99call Posted January 22 Posted January 22 20 hours ago, El Presidente said: Maybe hopeful thinking my end. Rob, I'm I missing something. If America seize control of Cuba, either by invading or by applying economic pressure/reward, doesn't every single cigar that gets made just go directly to the American market? Won't every single non-US vendor just get shutout of supply overnight? If they are in an expansionist/isolationist mood and they have the customer base to absorb all the product (which they do). Are you not concerned? Or is it just a case of what will be will be?
El Presidente Posted January 22 Posted January 22 1 hour ago, 99call said: Rob, I'm I missing something. If America seize control of Cuba, either by invading or by applying economic pressure/reward, doesn't every single cigar that gets made just go directly to the American market? Won't every single non-US vendor just get shutout of supply overnight? If they are in an expansionist/isolationist mood and they have the customer base to absorb all the product (which they do). Are you not concerned? Or is it just a case of what will be will be? Take away the seizing control part. Let's just assume Cuba is treated economically like most others and there exists an element of open trade. Tobacco infrastructure investment would 50 x fold in the short term. Assuming Cubatabaco maintains its monopoly, they could meet a demand of 200 million cigars annually within 5 years. That still wouldn't be enough. It will be tough going for distributors/retailers everywhere. It is those times however that provide the most innovation. 1
99call Posted January 22 Posted January 22 1 hour ago, El Presidente said: they could meet a demand of 200 million cigars annually within 5 years. That still wouldn't be enough. It will be tough going for distributors/retailers everywhere. It is those time however that provide the most innovation. Does that take into account the amount of Americans who would likely switch from smoking NC to CC, if they could buy as much as they wanted. Even in the short term, surely there would be a period of gorging and saturating all supply. Edit, Sorry read "would" instead of "wouldn't."
El Presidente Posted January 22 Posted January 22 53 minutes ago, 99call said: Does that take into account the amount of Americans who would likely switch from smoking NC to CC, if they could buy as much as they wanted. Even in the short term, surely there would be a period of gorging and saturating all supply. Edit, Sorry read "would" instead of "wouldn't." I am not convinced American smolers would "likely" switch from NC to CC. Try yes. Switch? not sure. Different flavour profiles and if you are brought up on NC, CC is often lacking a level of palate heft. Price point is another issue. Habanos or equivalent will not wish to generate an arbitrage market. COROs will be $2000 a box. Hell, they are $1700 in Cuba now. That is not your average NC smoker in the USA. The real money will be in fakes 2
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