Prediction on Future Cigar Prices

[Uwiik]

With how absurd cigar prices have gotten in the past few years, what do you guys think will happen in the future? With the current economic slowdown, most 'first world' toys such as exotic cars, Swiss watches, designer bags, etc. has corrected itself except for cigars. This makes me wonder how resilient the current cigar price trend would be? I only collect and smoke cigars with no intention to sell, but I started to wonder if I should put a brake on my acquisitions and wait for the cigar price to correct itself or it is just a wishful thinking?

I have been UN-pleasantly surprised by how much dealers are selling D4 now compared to 6 months ago, with more and more smokers realizing how good and consistent D4 is, at least here D4 is not an affordable hidden treasure anymore. I regret I only bought 4 X 25' SLBs when the price still made sense and recently paid stupid money for a couple more boxes (50% increase compared to 6 months ago). Now I am afraid that PLPC will follow the same fate and thinking about stocking up on a cab of 50' PLPC but I am also weary about the potential of prices dropping like a rock just like what is happening to Swiss watches right now. 

[JohnS]

Habanos S.A., and before 1994 Cubatabaco, has never lowered prices on Habanos cigars. The only time we have seen a discount on prices is via vendors when they have been forced to take product from Habanos S.A., that they don't necessarily want, and they have had to take a hit on their margins to move product. The most recent example of this has been the large price increases of Trinidad vitolas post-2022.

You really have to feel for online vendors and brick & mortar stores because they are the real 'meat in the sandwich' here. As consumers, we can grumble and complain about these changes but we don't have to keep buying Habanos cigars in the same way that vendors have to in order to maintain a business.

[Chitmo]

I'd argue you don’t want prices to come down, that’s a much worse sign in the grand scheme. The best you can hope for is that prices and supply stabilize and wages eventually climb to make it “normal” again. I’d guess that a large part of the market at the moment are folks that picked up the hobby over COVID and they’ll be less likely to stick it out and move onto the next trend. 

[SCgarman]

Only way prices come down is supply with certain cigars increases due to low demand and they sell discounted on grey market websites. I can't see that happening with the current dysfunction in the Cuban cigar industry. 

[Greenhorn2]

Who knows? The way the world is heading, if WW3 breaks out people will be scrambling to find food, much less cigars.Prices may go down then.

[Fireball]

The retail prices will not go down. Some good opinions posted here. I think at some point the price increases will be smaller. Maybe. The price increases have allowed for a lot of non Cuban brands to make inroads in many areas. 

But there are still people willing to pay the high prices and there are a lot of flippers that help drive prices up. Some oversupply will allow for deals on overstocked items, but that’s it. 
 

 

[PuroDiario]

Watches and else have not corrected, secondary market/private sales have. Meaning, speculation is not as broadly profitable now with the current economic climate. 

Habanos will never reset, it’s unfortunate but it is what it is. 

[Lt4-396]

Obviously this is all speculation. Official prices will continue to go up, although I think in smaller increments inline with the expected 3%-10%. If supply at minimum stays the same or continues to increase online vendor prices I think will come down across the board and heavy discounts will be there for slower movers. This is already happening at most grey market vendors. If you're going to buy a certain box, I personally wouldn't wait/hope for discounts unless it's for the high end slow movers. This is going off the assumption that roll and blend quality continues to be very good.

Historically the best time to buy was yesterday, 2nd best time is today.

To no surprise many 100% CC smokers have at least begun to transition away or supplement with NCs. Those that smoked both are most likely increasing NC purchases and decreasing CC. This will only increase as they discover all the exceptional NC blends in existence and new ones are released.

[Habanoschris]

3 hours ago, Lt4-396 said:

Historically the best time to buy was yesterday, 2nd best time is today.

I like this 👆

😚💨

[Havanaaddict]

18 hours ago, Lt4-396 said:

To no surprise many 100% CC smokers have at least begun to transition away or supplement with NCs. Those that smoked both are most likely increasing NC purchases and decreasing CC. This will only increase as they discover all the exceptional NC blends in existence and new ones are released.

Not me. I am one of those CC snobs🤣 I could never go back to enjoying NC’s. I started there as most everyone and enjoyed Padron Anniversary Opus X AF Hemingway when I started smoking CC 25 years ago. I developed a taste and my palate got accustomed to that flavor. I have cut back from 4 cigars a day to 2 a day. Hopefully that will help my supply to last. Still buying a box here and there and enjoying a lot of custom rolls and back door stuff.

[Uwiik]

It’s crazy, just last year $100 a stick sounded very rich, today it is almost the norm.

I tried my NC again for the too many times to mention and failed. 😆Same as you I just cannot enjoy NC anymore. Decided to trade my whole lot of NC from my infant days, Opus X, Don Carlos, Padron, God of Fire to name a few and got 2 boxes of Lusitania and a box of Monte 3 as trade. Lost a lot of money but still smiling ☺️

[BrightonCorgi]

Unless your national government has a change of heart, I don't see prices coming down. Between Habanos and the world cabal, tobacco prices are going to continue to rise. Been smoking cigars 30 years and never seen price dip.

[Uwiik]

11 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

Unless your national government has a change of heart, I don't see prices coming down. Between Habanos and the world cabal, tobacco prices are going to continue to rise. Been smoking cigars 30 years and never seen price dip.

I am convinced. Now back to hoarding boxes before price increase again. 🤪

[Monterey]

20 hours ago, Havanaaddict said:

 enjoying a lot of custom rolls and back door stuff.

Alrighty then! No judgement here