Your Cigar World Predictions for 2024?

[El Presidente]

Your Cigar World Predictions for 2024?

Habanos s.a, CC direction, NC direction, price points, releases, trends, big winners, losers etal. 

We have all been through a rollercoaster in the past 36 months, particularly in the CC world but we have also seen a plethora of high end NC releases in 2023. Raw tobacco prices are up, there has been a huge movement by Nicaraguan manufacturers to set up in Honduras (and elsewhere) as political risk hots up. 

What are your predictions for 2024. We will dig this thread up at this time in 2024 and provide the most outstanding prediction (that came through) a fantastic sampler. 

Have a crack 

[El Presidente]

Mine. 

• Habanos.sa. will move to higher ROI releases and cut back on regular releases. I am guessing (and it is a guess) that they will struggle to punch out 50 milion cigars. 
• This years Cuban crop will be good but 50% below 2018/19
• Every man and his dog in the NC world will release a $100 stick. They cost $2 at best (excluding packaging).Just sell 1000 boxes and you are on sweet street. 
• The secondary market will go from strength to strength, Folk will wish to cash in gains.There will be a plateau but not sure if it is 24 or 25. When is the last time you heard the term "flipper". It is now "de rigueu"
• Distributors will come under pressure to push sales. Discounting difficult. Still, look for another 1001 operator (for those in the game long enough to remember). 
• NC's will take 45% of the European and Asian market.It won't be easy as they have been caught on the hop. It will take them three years to scale. 
• Plain Packaging will take over another 8 countries.
• One of our cigars be it Desnudo or Bond Roberts will make the top 10 of some major list. 

 

[MagicalBikeRide]

I’d love to see HSA do something with the pricing for Trinidad. Can’t say I hold much tangible hope all the same. So couldn’t make it a prediction. 
 

A more realistic prediction - the wife catches evidence that my ‘23 CC boxes were not actually gifts, competition wins, etc. - but purchases, and she’s jailed for my resulting murder.*
 

* If I’m not about come Dec ‘24, you know my fate.  Much love - I’d a good run. 

13 hours ago, El Presidente said:

• One of our cigars be it Desnudo or Bond Roberts will make the top 10 of some major list. 

This is interesting. If you had to pick one @El Presidente, not necessarily your favourite, but your prediction to make some fancy dan list - which would you pick? 

[El Presidente]

11 hours ago, MagicalBikeRide said:

This is interesting. If you had to pick one @El Presidente, not necessarily your favourite, but your prediction to make some fancy dan list - which would you pick? 

Tough one as tasters/panels have different viewpoints. 

For me. 

1. Ninfas. Who in eff does a ninfas let alone one this good. 

2. Robisto Tritiny. I can have this Robusto to end of days. 

3. Carlota. Not for everyone as it is meduim full. However I envisioned this cigar to fill a hole in my cigar loving life and it has done so perfectly. 

[BrightonCorgi]

13 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Mine. 

• Distributors will come under pressure to push sales. Discounting difficult. Still, look for another 1001 operator (for those in the game long enough to remember

 Those good olde days!

[MickVanWinkle]

6 hours ago, MagicalBikeRide said:

A more realistic prediction - the wife catches evidence that my ‘23 CC boxes were not actually gifts, competition wins, etc. - but purchases, and she’s jailed for my resulting murder.

I personally sell the storyline of how a particular box reminds me of (insert vacation, honeymoon experience… etc) and amp up the sentimentality.

However, I’m running short on material so she may be winning when I need to start making up trips and such…

[SCgarman]

No good news will come out of Cuba regarding cigars or anything else. This has been the trend for the last several years, why would anything change for the better there? I wouldn't be surprised if there were another couple price hikes regarding cigars. The FOMO crowd seems willing to pay whatever price, no matter how ridiculous. As for myself, I'm out of the Cuban buying game. I have an adequate inventory, supplemented by Rob's Nudie cigars which are reasonably priced and really good.

[Cigar Surgeon]

2024 is going to be interesting in the NC world. With a short fall of Connecticut Broadleaf, wrapper issues in Ecuador from weather impact, Mexican SA is spoken for, I can't wrap my head around what the wrapper trend is going to be for mid to late 2024 and 2025 projects.

 

[KCCubano]

8 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

 Those good olde days!

I actually found an old Rolodex card the other day with 1001 phone #! Guessing it to be from 15+ yrs ago.

[BrightonCorgi]

Availability is my concern going into 2024. I am good for 2-4 box purchases in 2024 if given the opportunity. Will be afforded that opportunity is 50/50.

4 hours ago, MickVanWinkle said:

I personally sell the storyline of how a particular box reminds me of (insert vacation, honeymoon experience… etc) and amp up the sentimentality.

However, I’m running short on material so she may be winning when I need to start making up trips and such…

Inscribe the memory on the inside of the box to make it look even more sentimental.

[MagicalBikeRide]

2 hours ago, MickVanWinkle said:

I personally sell the storyline of how a particular box reminds me of (insert vacation, honeymoon experience… etc) and amp up the sentimentality.

However, I’m running short on material so she may be winning when I need to start making up trips and such…

Wouldn’t fly my end. She’d make me buy a key ring or something instead. 

[Rhinoww]

I fear price and availability of CC will continue to be an issue, even though some Things eased in the last few months. 
I would love to be lured back to the CC game. But at $20/stick I have many years of daily consumption before I will feel compelled to buy more. Such a shame. 
Although I swore off NC four or five years ago, perhaps 2024 is the year I return to dabble here and there with singles. Who knows, the labels and blends change so often it’s hard to keep track - and that won’t change. 
With prices up in CC and NC, the hobby will have fewer new entrants and things will at least stabilize for a while, until production once again overtakes demand. World economy will have influence here that I can’t predict. Perhaps wars and or political instability around the world will also have an impact. Buckle up, it’s gonna be an interesting year.

[SCgarman]

3 hours ago, Rhinoww said:

I fear price and availability of CC will continue to be an issue, even though some Things eased in the last few months. 
I would love to be lured back to the CC game. But at $20/stick I have many years of daily consumption before I will feel compelled to buy more. Such a shame. 
Although I swore off NC four or five years ago, perhaps 2024 is the year I return to dabble here and there with singles. Who knows, the labels and blends change so often it’s hard to keep track - and that won’t change. 
With prices up in CC and NC, the hobby will have fewer new entrants and things will at least stabilize for a while, until production once again overtakes demand. World economy will have influence here that I can’t predict. Perhaps wars and or political instability around the world will also have an impact. Buckle up, it’s gonna be an interesting year.

Personally I don't ever see Cuban cigar production ever meeting nor exceeding world demand. Cuba has so many factors not in it's favor. From the tobacco farmers getting stiffed, to the half empty rolling rooms, to the mass exodus of Cubans leaving the island for greener pastures. I could be wrong, but time will tell.