Inflation Rates YOY/Cuba

[El Presidente]

From the chart below, Cuba is certainly playing with the wrong crowd 

 

Inflation Rate YoY 

Country	Updated	Actual	Previous
Argentina	Dec/22	94.8 %	92.4
Belize	Dec/22	6.3 %	6.5
Brazil	Jan/23	5.77 %	5.79
Cameroon	Sep/22	7.69 %	7.12
Canada	Dec/22	6.3 %	6.8
Cape Verde	Dec/22	7.6 %	8
Chile	Jan/23	12.3 %	12.8
Colombia	Jan/23	13.25 %	13.12
Cuba	2022	39.07 %	40.26
Dominican Republic	Dec/22	7.83 %	7.58
Ecuador	Jan/23	3.12 %	3.74
El Salvador	Jan/23	7.03 %	7.34
Guyana	Dec/22	7.2 %	6.93
Haiti	Dec/22	48.3 %	45.5
Honduras	Jan/23	8.93 %	9.8
Jamaica	Dec/22	9.3 %	10.3
Mexico	Jan/23	7.91 %	7.82
Nicaragua	Dec/22	11.59 %	11.38
Panama	Dec/22	2.07 %	1.49
Paraguay	Jan/23	7.8 %	8.1
Peru	Jan/23	8.66 %	8.46
Puerto Rico	Dec/22	6 %	6.3
Suriname	Dec/22	54.56 %	49.4
Trinidad and Tobago	Nov/22	8 %	7.6
United States	Dec/22	6.5 %	7.1
Uruguay	Jan/23	8.05 %	8.29
Venezuela	Oct/22	156 %	157

 

[Corylax18]

5 hours ago, therealrsr said:

Some of those are surprising.  Argentina didn't seem expensive in November, but we were almost exclusively blue dollar exchanges which I imagine made up the difference.

This is a big thing in Cuba too. The real inflation rate is even higher. Because Cuban's cant buy a lot of necessities in Cuban pesos, the Deflation of their currency against USD/Euro magnifies the real pain. 80% of the economy is underground/black market down there. So I don't doubt the Cuban's reported inflation for the 20% that they actually control, but they don't actually control the majority of the economy. 

[NSXCIGAR]

39%?! 

Bloomberg had inflation at 70% in 2021 and that seems low to me also. The CUP was generously 30:1 in Jan 21 and went to 60:1 by Dec 21. That looks like 100% inflation to me.

At 70:1 in Jan 22 to 140:1 in Dec 22--looks like another 100% inflation to me. And those are conservative numbers. 

 

[Kaptain Karl]

If only Argentina remembered how to run a competent government...it would be one of the wealthiest countries in the world. 

[Lamboinee]

Do previous rates reflect previous month's yoy inflation rate or previous year's. Either way...... What the heck are they doing charging their own people more?!?!? I guess it's naive of me to think that Cubans are even able to purchase their own cigars.... Double what the heck. 

Alexa, what is Suriname? 

[NSXCIGAR]

2 hours ago, Lamboinee said:

Do previous rates reflect previous month's yoy inflation rate or previous year's. Either way...... What the heck are they doing charging their own people more?!?!? I guess it's naive of me to think that Cubans are even able to purchase their own cigars.... Double what the heck. 

Alexa, what is Suriname? 

You can't buy anything important with CUP. CUP is essentially traded among Cubans at fruit stands and restaurants. They want MLC/USD. The only things worth buying are sold in the MLC stores. You can't get MLC with CUP, so it's a practically useless currency for that purpose. The whole scheme is designed to get USD/EUR into the hands of the government. Nothing more.

The CUP inflation doesn't really affect the Cubans as much as one might think since they get a pittance in CUP "salary" anyway. The food is given out by ration booklets. If you want more you need MLC. 

And the MLC stores ain't cheap. There's one over by Marina Hemingway that sells housewares. It's pretty well stocked. Not exactly an IKEA but they have all sorts of brushes, racks, kitchen tools and pots & pans. A crappy spatula or scrub brush costs about $5-7 for example. Something you could get in the US at a dollar store. 

 

[JohnnyO]

15 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

You can't buy anything important with CUP. CUP is essentially traded among Cubans at fruit stands and restaurants. They want MLC/USD. The only things worth buying are sold in the MLC stores. You can't get MLC with CUP, so it's a practically useless currency for that purpose. The whole scheme is designed to get USD/EUR into the hands of the government. Nothing more.

The CUP inflation doesn't really affect the Cubans as much as one might think since they get a pittance in CUP "salary" anyway. The food is given out by ration booklets. If you want more you need MLC. 

And the MLC stores ain't cheap. There's one over by Marina Hemingway that sells housewares. It's pretty well stocked. Not exactly an IKEA but they have all sorts of brushes, racks, kitchen tools and pots & pans. A crappy spatula or scrub brush costs about $5-7 for example. Something you could get in the US at a dollar store. 

 

The CUP is used for everything in the parallel markets not just fruit stands and restaurants. The inflation which is measureable, has affected Cubans greatly. Basic items; cooking oil, eggs, chicken, pork, coffee have increased since the devaluation of the CUP and will continue to do so as it devalues even further. Many items are more expensive than in the US. On a daily basis there are families taking down suitcases of food for their loved ones. The majority dont have access to foreign currency, MLC and all. Once you get away from Havana the folks are starving. The ones that are surviving have family in Miami, the ones that have $$$ are leaving. So it would be difficult to say the devaluation of the CUP or inflation doesnt affect Cubans much. John

[NSXCIGAR]

47 minutes ago, JohnnyO said:

So it would be difficult to say the devaluation of the CUP or inflation doesnt affect Cubans much.

Right, but how much could they afford at 70:1 which it was pretty much right out of the gate? And how much of these food staples is even available? I would say it affects the Cubans nominally but not practically since they couldn't afford it since the transition and there's nothing to buy anyways. Does it make much difference if cooking oil goes from unaffordable to really unaffordable? Or unavailable to really unavailable? 

I'm just speaking practically here--not theoretically. Of course inflation is always sub-optimal but the floor was already so low it's not that much worse on an absolute scale. 

[JohnnyO]

At 175:1 they are still buying, just less. All is available on the streets at a much higher price. Powdered milk is about the only product that is not available readily, bread that was provided by the government has basically disappeared. But that is a world problem. Cooking oil is available at a subsidized price but you have to stand in line all day for that. There are many re-sellers in parallel markets of all of the products provided for by the government. Inflation there is real, not theoretical. Thats why you have a lot of Cubans leaving for the US. John

[Corylax18]

I stumbled on this very recent documentary from DW yesterday and I just finished watching it. It has the standard old cars driving along the Malecon, BUT it's much more focused on the Economy, how its slowly been falling apart and how that affects the Cuban people. Hearing a Cuban Government Official blame the lack of farming production on Cuba, (instead of everything else) was stunning.