Buy the fall?

[stogieluver]

Just partially jumped back in this morning. I feel like this thing is near the bottom and will probably flounder up and down a little until the November mid-terms. 

[GoodStix]

Agree that you can only know a market peak or bottom in the rear view mirror.  But at times you can see more obvious trends -- an opportunity to act.  You don't need to hit the exact top or low.  But I'm not a fan of dollar-cost averaging, always buying at any price.  You can spot major trends.  jmo

[Kaptain Karl]

Sadly I think I'm going to dump a bunch of my cigar stock. With after market prices being this stupid, me being a mortgage lender in a this market, and us nose diving into what could be a brutal high interest rate recession I'd rather dump now, have the cash in case things get bad and buy a year or two down the road when my income is 4-6x what it is now. 

[coug28]

21 minutes ago, Kaptain Karl said:

Sadly I think I'm going to dump a bunch of my cigar stock. With after market prices being this stupid, me being a mortgage lender in a this market, and us nose diving into what could be a brutal high interest rate recession I'd rather dump now, have the cash in case things get bad and buy a year or two down the road when my income is 4-6x what it is now. 

Feel ya sir. Housing prices need to drop significantly for anyone to be able to afford these Uber-inflated housing prices, especially with what the interest rate bumps are gonna do to mortgage payments on new purchases. Refis will be non-existent too I’m sure. Everyone who had any sense did that long ago. That Refinance wave had to be a helluva ride though?!

 

Wish ya all the best for sure! Cuban cigars will be here certainly for ya, for whenever the next boom comes. 
 

 

[Kaptain Karl]

1 minute ago, coug28 said:

Feel ya sir. Housing prices need to drop significantly for anyone to be able to afford these Uber-inflated housing prices, especially with what the interest rate bumps are gonna do to mortgage payments on new purchases. Refis will be non-existent too I’m sure. Everyone who had any sense did that long ago. That Refinance wave had to be a helluva ride though?!

 

Wish ya all the best for sure! Cuban cigars will be here certainly for ya, for whenever the next boom comes. 
 

 

I think there's going to be a 10-20% dip in the housing market this year, ARM mortgages are coming back, and sellers need to be prepared to give 3-6% concessions to the buyer. Housing prices jumped 10% too much last year with the fed keeping mortgage rates artificially low. So really inflation hit the housing market last year before it hit anything else. Higher rates still do not solve the problem of the chronic shortage of inventory that we face nationwide, so I actually think housing prices will get back to where they are now pretty quickly, within 18-24 months. Really I feel the next 9 months is going to be a chaotic blood bath, then back to normal next spring market. I'm much more of a purchase lender than a refi guy, so there's great opportunities here to pick up market share throughout the chaos! 

[bates40]

On 6/15/2022 at 2:40 PM, stogieluver said:

Just partially jumped back in this morning. I feel like this thing is near the bottom and will probably flounder up and down a little until the November mid-terms. 

The Dow and Nasdaq unfortunately do not agree- what would drive a rebound at this point? Very difficult to find any gleam of light near the end of the tunnel right now....

 

[stogieluver]

39 minutes ago, bates40 said:

The Dow and Nasdaq unfortunately do not agree- what would drive a rebound at this point? Very difficult to find any gleam of light near the end of the tunnel right now....

 

Agree. Don’t see any rebound soon, but I don’t see much more downside and I’m willing to go partially back in and ride the ups and downs until I catch the beginning of the rebound. I only went back in around 20%.  

[BlueRidgeFly]

1 hour ago, bates40 said:

The Dow and Nasdaq unfortunately do not agree- what would drive a rebound at this point? Very difficult to find any gleam of light near the end of the tunnel right now....

That is often the time to buy--when everyone thinks things are bleak. That is, if you're into timing the market.

[vladdraq]

correct strategy is to buy on support, on a confirmed  higher low, but yeah, I get your point. As Jesse Livermore said " “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!"

[GolfT3]

@Kaptain Karl I’m in the real estate PE business and you’re spot on with your inventory comment. People don’t understand that we built next to no housing units  for almost 5 years after the GFC. All the while population and household formation still going up. We’re still way short of where we need to be on the supply side for there to be any meaningful price correction. High rent and high mortgage rates suck but everyone still needs a place to live, no one can just sit out of the market because pricing is high.

My thought is that the next recession will look much more like the tech crash in 00-01 than the GFC in 08-09 based on where fundamentals are today.

[Chibearsv]

49 minutes ago, GolfT3 said:

@Kaptain Karl I’m in the real estate PE business and you’re spot on with your inventory comment. People don’t understand that we built next to no housing units  for almost 5 years after the GFC. All the while population and household formation still going up. We’re still way short of where we need to be on the supply side for there to be any meaningful price correction. High rent and high mortgage rates suck but everyone still needs a place to live, no one can just sit out of the market because pricing is high.

My thought is that the next recession will look much more like the tech crash in 00-01 than the GFC in 08-09 based on where fundamentals are today.

Yep, demand is still up. Our mortgage applications are up 25% from last month and some of that is seasonal but I would have thought we’d be down since the rate increases.  I’m on the hunt for the retirement ranch but the prices are still too high for me to jump. I’m hoping that changes this winter. 

[Kaptain Karl]

1 hour ago, Chibearsv said:

Yep, demand is still up. Our mortgage applications are up 25% from last month and some of that is seasonal but I would have thought we’d be down since the rate increases.  I’m on the hunt for the retirement ranch but the prices are still too high for me to jump. I’m hoping that changes this winter. 

I think if prices come down there’s actually going to be a ton of activity this fall. I think the high inflation could force a lot of people to leave this area (north SF Bay area, average home here is 650-800k) so that could really help inventory and give borrowers incentive to buy when rates are sky high (for recent history and current housing prices). There’s a few different ways this could go, it’ll be an interesting 4-8 weeks trying to figure it out! 

 

[bates40]

On 6/16/2022 at 3:50 PM, BlueRidgeFly said:

That is often the time to buy--when everyone thinks things are bleak. That is, if you're into timing the market.

Need some solid evidence that equities - potentially significantly overpriced - are worth buying. Still contributing to 401k and company stock, but otherwise holding cash. 

[BoliDan]

It's worth waiting still. I put a lot in to money market before the drop, I'll probably transition those funds to stocks after another dip... Which I expect.

[GoodStix]

4 hours ago, bates40 said:

but otherwise holding cash. 

Good call.  Cash ain’t trash.  We’ve aways down yet.  How ugly, who knows.  I remember the early ‘80s.  Just saw an interview with the Kansas Fed Chair and a larger money manager.  Very good point was made:  US economy is roughly $21 trillion.  Between Fed and Admin moves in recent times, we’ve dumped $10 trillion new dollars into the mix.  That’s a lot of newly created money sloshing around.  Things are going to worsen for awhile yet.  I’d rather lose 8% (hopefully not more) on cash to inflation, than 30% to asset depreciation.  Buying opportunities ahead (eventually) for those in cash.  In the meantime, pour a glass, light a good stick, and hope for the best.  Good luck to us all 🙂

[SMELTZ]

Holding.  Dont think the bottom has hit yet.  When oil comes back down consistently the bottom is near. 

 

[bates40]

Bought some more XXII this AM on ongoing Nicotine opportunities.