Cuba's Economy Is Shifting... Towards Barter

[El Presidente]

This is an excellent article that sums up the situation succinctly. 

5 minutes to midnight. 

https://diariodecuba.com/economia/1615913862_29611.html

 

Cuba's Economy Is Shifting... Towards Barter

Although people are not conducting technical analyses of monetary policy, because of rampant inflation they sense that the national currency is becoming less and less reliable.

 

RAFAELA CRUZ

La Habana 16 Mar 2021 - 17:57 CET

A proposal for barter at a house in Havana. DIARIO DE CUBA

Marxist teleological simplism understands history as an ascending continuum that began in primitive society, from there gave rise to slavery, feudalism, capitalism and imperialism before culminating in enlightened communism. Marx assumed that not only were things this way, but that they could not be any other.

It is extremely ironic, - if not, poetic - then, that a clear refutation of the German philosopher comes from one of its last progeny, Castroist Marxism, which has come to demonstrate that history, rather than an ascending line, is really a cyclical spiral, a philosophical contribution evidenced by the return of currently unclassifiable Cuban society to the primitive economic system of bartering.

Faced with the inexorable advance of dollarization, evidenced in the contrast between the desolate shelves of stores selling in local currency and the well-stocked ones of those selling in foreign currency, Cubans fear that their money will end up on a par with the official newspaper Granma, whose hygienic use is universally recognized.

Thus, they have now taken up the commercial customs of their pre-Columbian ancestors to get what they need without turning to a government that pays them in toilet paper, but charges them for the little it sells them in the enemy's dollars.

Of course, these modern natives no longer exchange three shells for two tortillas in front of the tribal chief. Rather, making the most of their scarce and overpriced Internet access, they have created channels on the social network Telegram to market, not what they have left over (what could a Cuban have left over?) but what they need, but that they must exchange for something they need even more.

On this digital black market you can find tools, clothes, jewelry, household appliances and antiques offered mainly in exchange for food or toiletries, but it goes from absurd to unsettling when it comes to medicines: anxiolytics, antidepressants, painkillers and antibiotics are the items most in demand, though, due to the spread of the scabies epidemic, the hottest remedy right now is permethrin.

The return to this economic primitivism manifests the people’s distrust in the state’s management, which ought to be reinforcing and bolstering the value of commonly accepted means of exchange. Although the people are not conducting technical analyses of monetary policy, because of the rampant inflation they sense that the national money is less and less reliable, such that, in the absence of dollars, they prefer to trade directly rather than amass the currency of a government that only delivers - and even shines- on the nightly news.

Castroism, meanwhile, handles inflation the same way it does political dissidents: whenever it can, it ignores it; when it cannot, it represses it harshly; whatever it takes so that this stubborn reality does not interfere with the sweet fantasy that in Cuba prices and consciences are controlled.

The harsh truth, however, is that price controls are worsening the situation by functioning as a funnel where private producers get the short end of the stick, with profit margins barely allowing them to survive, while state-owned import companies run by the military enjoy a free hand to multiply their profits several times over at the people’s expense.

Since the market is unable to express itself through prices, it does so through the quintessential symbols of the Cuban socialist economy: shortages and lines. And, if the government does not take serious steps to free up production and boost the national currency, an archaic return to barter will be added to that list.

Hard times (even harder) are coming for Cuban society, which, instead of advancing, is regressing. In the end, neither the ordenamiento, State Security nor the songs of Raul Torres or Virulo will prevent Cubans from continuing to yearn for the ultimate swap: when they exchange an old and useless government for any other that is not just more of the same.

[Nino]

50 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

Hard times (even harder) are coming for Cuban society, which, instead of advancing, is regressing.

Sums it up quite well. Thank you.

[SpecialK]

I know this is just spitballing.. but does anyone see a real change ? Evan after Raul dies ? The situation goes from bad to worse , with the default being bad. What  does everyone think ?

[NSXCIGAR]

German philosopher

Marx wishes he was a philosopher. In reality he was a sophist. 

The good news is that it seems like the pendulum has swung a little too far to the left at the moment. I would expect the government to apply the usual compensating economic freedom to right the ship a bit. Back and forth it goes.

 

41 minutes ago, SpecialK said:

I know this is just spitballing.. but does anyone see a real change ? Evan after Raul dies ? The situation goes from bad to worse , with the default being bad. What  does everyone think ?

I had mentioned this a few years ago. Unfortunately, it seems this regime will transcend the cult of personality of the Castros. I suppose they get the "credit" for wisely keeping the locus of power in the "party" rather than in the person. Canel has so far commanded all the faith the Castros had. The handoff was smooth. 

Interestingly, it seems Raul was really the best of the bunch. The most positive reforms and changes occurred during his watch. Ironic, since it was Raul that got Fidel into the business in the first place. 

[SpecialK]

21 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

German philosopher

Marx wishes he was a philosopher. In reality he was a sophist. 

The good news is that it seems like the pendulum has swung a little too far to the left at the moment. I would expect the government to apply the usual compensating economic freedom to right the ship a bit. Back and forth it goes.

Essentially it will get a little bit better than bad and the situation will settle.. In Venezuela , there were riots and protests.. I wonder why you don't see this among the cuban people ?

[NSXCIGAR]

1 minute ago, SpecialK said:

Essentially it will get a little bit better than bad and the situation will settle.. In Venezuela , there were riots and protests.. I wonder why you don't see this among the cuban people ?

Because Cuba has mastered the pressure relief valve approach. And Cuba is a much smaller and manageable country that's less industrialized. In Venezuela, there are still remnants of a middle class who get pretty upset when quality of life drops from a 5 to a 2. They remember better times 15-20 years ago. In Cuba, quality of life drops from a 2 to a 1, and no one remembers better times since there never were any. 

[helix]

Tourists will be treated as Gods once it gets back up rolling. 

[SpecialK]

7 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Because Cuba has mastered the pressure relief valve approach. And Cuba is a much smaller and manageable country that's less industrialized. In Venezuela, there are still remnants of a middle class who get pretty upset when quality of life drops from a 5 to a 2. They remember better times 15-20 years ago. In Cuba, quality of life drops from a 2 to a 1, and no one remembers better times since there never were any. 

Yup... you would think that with so many of they're countrymen living relatively well just 90 miles away the dissatisfaction would be more present. The world is getting smaller and the "why can't I have that" sentiment is everywhere.

[helix]

4 minutes ago, SpecialK said:

Yup... you would think that with so many of they're countrymen living relatively well just 90 miles away the dissatisfaction would be more present. The world is getting smaller and the "why can't I have that" sentiment is everywhere.

Yes it is, but just try expressing that kind of sentiment openly in Cuba and see what happens to you.

[Nino]

13 hours ago, SpecialK said:

I know this is just spitballing.. but does anyone see a real change ? Evan after Raul dies ? The situation goes from bad to worse , with the default being bad. What  does everyone think ?

Nope.

There is no change if illegal border crossings are up so many times now. Useless.

And to express it in the Spanish that you will have to dig in the US pretty soon - It is progressing from Guatemala to Guatepeor ..... equivalent to from Islamabad to Islamaworse 🙂

12 hours ago, helix said:

Yes it is, but just try expressing that kind of sentiment openly in Cuba and see what happens to you.

Exactly, thank you.

[NickV]

But I thought socialism and Marxism were superior to capitalism?

[El Presidente]

2 hours ago, SpecialK said:

 In Venezuela , there were riots and protests.. I wonder why you don't see this among the cuban people ?

...that is why Venezuela/maduro calls on the Cuban military.  He wouldn't still be there without them. 

[Jimmy_jack]

Too bad they can’t just rise up and overthrow 

[garnett]

57 minutes ago, Jimmy_jack said:

Too bad they can’t just rise up and overthrow 

They can but somebody has to be willing to die so others will be free.

[Corylax18]

6 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

German philosopher

Marx wishes he was a philosopher. In reality he was a sophist. 

The good news is that it seems like the pendulum has swung a little too far to the left at the moment. I would expect the government to apply the usual compensating economic freedom to right the ship a bit. Back and forth it goes.

 

I had mentioned this a few years ago. Unfortunately, it seems this regime will transcend the cult of personality of the Castros. I suppose they get the "credit" for wisely keeping the locus of power in the "party" rather than in the person. Canel has so far commanded all the faith the Castros had. The handoff was smooth. 

Interestingly, it seems Raul was really the best of the bunch. The most positive reforms and changes occurred during his watch. Ironic, since it was Raul that got Fidel into the business in the first place. 

Raul is still running the show. Cuba actually uses a similar structure of government to the U.S. (and other countries) to provide (in theory) "Checks and Balances". 

Fidel, then Raul where the Head of the Military, Head of the Communist Party and President. So they checked themselves.

Diaz-Canel is the current puppet, excuse me, president. But, Raul is still the head of the Military and Communist Party. He's still 100% in charge. 

From Wikipedia:

"As First Vice President of the Council of State, Díaz-Canel acted as deputy to the President, Raúl Castro. In 2018, the 86-year-old Castro stepped down from the presidency, though he retained the most powerful position of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and the commander-in-chief of the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces."

 

Raul is still swimming in his brother's wake. He obviously wouldn't be where he is now without Fidel. 

Diaz-Canel Doesn't have a fraction of the respect/cache that the Castro brothers held within the country. Or still hold with some of the oldest generation.

Maybe Raul has already set up plans to transfer all the power to him, without real votes, like he did with the presidency.

If he hasnt, I dont see Diaz-Canel standing on his own two feet for more than a couple years, max. 

I think the eventual break through comes through some sort of political Coup, not an uprising of the people.

[helix]

33 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

I think the eventual break through comes through some sort of political Coup, not an uprising of the people.

Indeed maybe the only hope for change.

[NSXCIGAR]

10 hours ago, NickV said:

But I thought socialism and Marxism were superior to capitalism?

Yes, can you believe capitalist countries don't even hand out bread to their people? The inhumanity.

 

6 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

Diaz-Canel Doesn't have a fraction of the respect/cache that the Castro brothers held within the country. Or still hold with some of the oldest generation.

Maybe Raul has already set up plans to transfer all the power to him, without real votes, like he did with the presidency.

Interesting. So you're saying the Cubans only go along with Diaz-Canel because they believe those are really Raul's words?

If that's the case then maybe there is a chance for some real pushback once Raul dies. 

I am surprised that things are getting this bad under Raul's direct supervision. He seemed to be very proactive about reforms before things got too bad. He never had a problem allowing far more freedoms than had ever been allowed in order to keep things from devolving further.

[Nino]

7 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

Raul is still running the show.

Fidel, then Raul where the Head of the Military, Head of the Communist Party and President. So they checked themselves.

Diaz-Canel is the current puppet, excuse me, president. But, Raul is still the head of the Military and Communist Party. He's still 100% in charge. 

Diaz-Canel Doesn't have a fraction of the respect/cache that the Castro brothers held within the country. Or still hold with some of the oldest generation.

If he hasnt, I dont see Diaz-Canel standing on his own two feet for more than a couple years, max. 

I think the eventual break through comes through some sort of political Coup, not an uprising of the people.

Very informed & accurate details all of the above.

Raul is boss and Diaz-Canel is puppet.

I agree with the last point - a political coup is the most likely outcome.

But - lately there have been rumours that Raul is "coaching or grooming" a successor to Diaz-Canel, another puppet but a more "beloved" puppet by the Cuban people. This would be Gerardo Hernandez, one of the "Five heroes" - the Cuban spy ring that operated in the US as "Wasp network". He has been elected to the state council and is now the head of the CDR - the committees for the defense of the revolution ....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Five

https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/w/miami-five-hero-gerardo-hernandez-elected-to-cuba-council-of-state
 

Quote

 

CUBAN national hero Gerardo Hernandez Nordelo was elected to the country’s Council of State today — almost six years to the day after he was released from prison in the US.

Mr Hernandez was elected to fill a vacancy in the body which oversees the work of the National Assembly of People’s Power and is accountable to the Cuban parliament after the resignation of Carlos Rafael Miranda.

Mr Hernandez was awarded the title of Hero of the Republic on his return to Cuba. He is currently the national co-ordinator of the Committees for the Defence of the Revolution.

 

If that happens I will have smoked a couple of cigars with the guy .... 🙂

http://flyingcigar.de/startseite/cigars-with-the-five-cuban-heroes/

 

[Corylax18]

6 hours ago, nino said:

Very informed & accurate details all of the above.

Raul is boss and Diaz-Canel is puppet.

I agree with the last point - a political coup is the most likely outcome.

But - lately there have been rumours that Raul is "coaching or grooming" a successor to Diaz-Canel, another puppet but a more "beloved" puppet by the Cuban people. This would be Gerardo Hernandez, one of the "Five heroes" - the Cuban spy ring that operated in the US as "Wasp network". He has been elected to the state council and is now the head of the CDR - the committees for the defense of the revolution ....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Five

https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/w/miami-five-hero-gerardo-hernandez-elected-to-cuba-council-of-state
 

If that happens I will have smoked a couple of cigars with the guy .... 🙂

http://flyingcigar.de/startseite/cigars-with-the-five-cuban-heroes/

 

Very Interesting Nino. Thanks for the extra details. It makes a lot of sense. (from Raul's perspective) I was aware of the "Cuban 5", but not Gerardo Hernandez's personal story. 

"Devoted Revolutionary" "Willing to sacrifice everything" "Fought the Imperialists and Won" Who was described in similar terms? 

As a back story, It fits the bill a lot better than: "Electrical Engineer from Villa Clara" 

I've met some pretty interesting Characters at Club Habana, but there are a few heavy hitters in those photos. Was El Gallo there as part of a scheduled event/watching over the "golden goose" or just a coincidence?

[SpecialK]

 

I wonder which side of the political spectrum the news paper is on  

 

[Jimmy_jack]

18 hours ago, garnett said:

They can but somebody has to be willing to die so others will be free.

Pretty hard to do without legit weaponry. 

[Nino]

1 hour ago, Corylax18 said:

I've met some pretty interesting Characters at Club Habana, but there are a few heavy hitters in those photos. Was El Gallo there as part of a scheduled event/watching over the "golden goose" or just a coincidence?

The "Rooster" is a long time friend of mine, good guy and loyal & devoted Castrista.
He was there on "all three reasons" and connected John and me with the Five ... 🙂

34 minutes ago, SpecialK said:

 

I wonder which side of the political spectrum the news paper is on  

 

Hahahaha ... not really the most "neutral" side I suppose - was the first link I found re. the state council election ... apologies 🙂

[SpecialK]

1 hour ago, nino said:

Hahahaha ... not really the most "neutral" side I suppose - was the first link I found re. the state council election ... apologies 🙂

not a problem it was an interesting read, 👍 thank you for posting.. I was just thinking a lot of people who subscribe/read this paper must still be living with their parents  

[Corylax18]

54 minutes ago, SpecialK said:

not a problem it was an interesting read, 👍 thank you for posting.. I was just thinking a lot of people who subscribe/read this paper must still be living with their parents  

I Didn't even see that the first time I read it. Haha. I had just finished browsing Granma though, so after that, this article was right down the middle. 

[NSXCIGAR]

Pressure relief valve in action:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/cuba-crossing-immigration-b1820096.html