future for cuba's economy

[Ken Gargett]

interesting article, as always, from the Economist.

why not keeping flogging the deceased equine? the cuban govt has just been given every excuse to crack down and blame others. 

 

Sanctions on Cuba will only slow regime change

 

FOR THE past few months Cubans have faced shortages of some foodstuffs, as well as sporadic power cuts and fuel shortages that have affected never-abundant public transport. “We have to prepare for the worst,” Raúl Castro, Cuba’s communist leader, told his people last month. On May 10th the government announced that it would ration several staples, including rice, beans, chicken and eggs, as well as soap and toothpaste.

These are the first results of Donald Trump’s tightening of the American economic embargo against Cuba, as part of his effort to overthrow the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. Mr Trump’s administration is trying to halt the shipment of oil from Venezuela to Cuba. Last month it imposed fresh restrictions on tourism and remittances to the island from the United States and opened the way for thousands of lawsuits by Americans against foreign companies operating in Cuba. After ousting of Mr Maduro, Cuba’s government “will be next”, promised John Bolton, Mr Trump’s national security adviser.

The Cuban regime has survived six decades of American sanctions, and there is little reason to believe it will buckle now. But Mr Trump’s offensive does come at a complicated moment for Cuba. It coincides with a gradual handover of power from Mr Castro, who is 87, to a collective leadership including Miguel Díaz-Canel, who took over as president last year and who was born after the revolution in 1959 that installed communism. It also comes when the economy is stagnant.

Older Cubans look back to the years when the island was a heavily subsidised Soviet satellite as ones of relative abundance. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was followed by what Fidel Castro, Raúl’s older brother, called the “Special Period” of austerity. That ended when Hugo Chávez of Venezuela gave Cuba subsidised oil. When the oil price fell in 2014 and mismanagement cut Venezuela’s oil output, Mr Maduro scaled back the aid; it is now at less than half its peak.

The blow was softened, explains Pavel Vidal, a Cuban economist at Javeriana University in Cali, in Colombia, partly by a rise in American tourism following Barack Obama’s thaw towards Cuba and by a modest increase in foreign investment as a result of Raúl Castro’s mildly liberalising economic reforms. Mr Trump’s measures target these two shock absorbers. Mr Vidal expects the economy to shrink by up to 3% this year and imports to fall by 10-15% (after a 20% drop since 2015).

Harder times “do not mean returning to the most acute phase of the Special Period”, Mr Castro insisted last month. That was marked by systematic shortages and regular power cuts, the memory of which is traumatic. Since then Cuba has diversified its economy somewhat. It now produces a third of the oil it consumes. It has also hoarded foreign reserves.

The immediate impact of the Trump offensive has been to send the Cuban regime into a defensive crouch. Progress in market-opening reforms has all but halted. While not doing anything to jeopardise the system’s iron political control, Mr Díaz-Canel had brought a more relaxed style, going around with his wife and talking to ordinary Cubans. Now the veteran Stalinists in the politburo are more visible again. On May 11th police broke up an unauthorised march by gay-rights activists in Havana.

That march was a sign that society, too, has changed as a result of Raúl’s reforms and Mr Obama’s thaw, much scorned though it is by Mr Bolton. A third of the workforce now labours in small private businesses or co-operatives. Around 20% of Cubans, mainly younger ones, are globalised and connected to social media, reckons Rafael Rojas, a Cuban historian at CIDE, a university in Mexico City. With the other 80%, the regime “will be fairly successful in blaming a deterioration of economic conditions on the United States”, he says. “I don’t see a popular uprising or social unrest because of shortages.”

For the Cuban regime, Venezuela has been a means to divert American pressure away from the homeland. A bolder leadership might cut its losses, and accept a democratic transition there in return for guarantees that it will still get some oil. But there is no sign that diplomatic overtures by Canada and the Lima Group of Latin American countries will draw that response from Havana. A different administration in Washington might seek to negotiate with Cuba about Venezuela. As it is, under Mr Trump’s assault the Cuban regime is likely to become even more rigid in its resistance.

[DSegal]

Say what you want about politics, and support which party you want...but the obvious power of Obama's initial thawing of relations with Cuba did one main political thing: it weakened the Cuban government's ability to blame the US for its problems. Yes, it also allowed US travelers to visit more freely, and spend more $, some of which went to the Cuban government, and some of which went directly into the pockets of Cuban people. Now Trump is doing the opposite--he's giving the Cuban government the gift of something to blame for their problems--us, or US. I am not trying to start a political argument thread, but I think most of us US citizens in this forum want it to be easier to visit Cuba, not harder--and I think we all want life to be better for the wonderful Cuban people we meet when we visit. How life for Cubans can be improved is a popular topic of debate, but I fail to see how tightening the US noose is a way to do that. Nice article.

[Ken Gargett]

1 minute ago, DSegal said:

Say what you want about politics, and support which party you want...but the obvious power of Obama's initial thawing of relations with Cuba did one main political thing: it weakened the Cuban government's ability to blame the US for its problems. Yes, it also allowed US travelers to visit more freely, and spend more $, some of which went to the Cuban government, and some of which went directly into the pockets of Cuban people. Now Trump is doing the opposite--he's giving the Cuban government the gift of something to blame for their problems--us, or US. I am not trying to start a political argument thread, but I think most of us US citizens in this forum want it to be easier to visit Cuba, not harder--and I think we all want life to be better for the wonderful Cuban people we meet when we visit. How life for Cubans can be improved is a popular topic of debate, but I fail to see how tightening the US noose is a way to do that. Nice article.

100% correct. 

on one visit, i remember being in a nightclub and they were singing songs to obama. then they were chanting his name. some had tears in their eyes. i would imagine it a similar response to say de gaulle's return to france or if churchill walked the streets of london at the end of the war. he was absolutely revered by the people who saw this as the first real nail in the cuban govt coffin. a crack in the door to freedom. and now, the clock has been wound back and the cuban govt can again peg the US as the villains. and pretty much do what they want to the people. 

even if they are completely in the right (and not saying that either way), the world hates a bully, loves an underdog. the US is insisting on making itself the bully and cuba the ultimate underdog.

clearly i understand nothing about international relations as this seems like sheer lunacy to me. especially as it didn't work for the first 60 years of implementation. 

[BoliDan]

14 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

clearly i understand nothing about international relations as this seems like sheer lunacy to me. especially as it didn't work for the first 60 years of implementation. 

It's a stance that proves mostly ineffective and causes turmoil for many innocent people. The darker policy side of it is that they attempt to cut the government's ability to provide, cause famine, create higher unemployment and foment uprising against said government. Kissinger-esque policies are deeply rooted in far-right foreign policy, as they are more ideologically consistent with other foreign policy actions. For example: finding groups that will be loyal to the US (if they defeat the current government) and arming that group/pushing recruitment. Otherwise, if they don't find a militant group and just cause enough unrest that government decides to use military force against the angry public, it gives them reason to intervene/possibly invade. This foreign policy ideology is called Realism (Don't read too much into the term, it was coined by its proponents/crafters with extreme bias). A preference for short-run results (with a lot of bloodshed) but US interest in the country, rather than the long-run of transition economies to free market and democracy.

I think it's important to note, that these policies are overall high failures and result in great loss of life or at least long-run poverty for large populations. Transition Economies are very successful in recent history, is driven mainly through free trade which also happens to strengthen US interests, and comes with much less loss of life and poverty (if any at all).
 

[Thig]

Just because a government policy hasn't worked in 50+ years is no reason to give it up, much sarcasm intended.

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[CubanConnoisseur]

This is a very complex issue that has existed for well over 100 years. To understand Cuba-America relations we must understand their history. The current embargo is a product of the Cold War and should have ended with the collapse of the Eastern Bloc.

Netflix (Canada) has a great documentary mini-series called the Cuba Libre Story that covers the history of Cuba up to the present day. I recommend watching it as it provides plenty of insight regarding Cuban history.

[MPS]

3 hours ago, Thig said:

Just because a government policy hasn't worked in 50+ years is no reason to give it up, much sarcasm intended.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
 

Just because communism has never worked is no reason to give it up.

[dgixxer252525]

Not wanting to get banned or start an argument, but all of you speak like non Cubans. Well i am Cuban 100% and my family and the people in my town saw 0 change with Obama's detente. We WANT sanctions because it will force change...maybe not now or even in 60 more years, but the existance the people in my town lead is not one worth trying to extend. Cigars aren't that important. My grandfather was tortured, put in a concentration camp, and barely escaped looking for freedom and some dignity.  He died this year and never once regretted leaving or not going back. How can we forget the thousands like him just because we like cigars? Education will only get you so far on this topic. Go to Miami or come to tampa and live in our shoes, the exiles shoes, to get a better idea...

[JLinz]

2 hours ago, dgixxer252525 said:

Not wanting to get banned or start an argument, but all of you speak like non Cubans. Well i am Cuban 100% and my family and the people in my town saw 0 change with Obama's detente. We WANT sanctions because it will force change...maybe not now or even in 60 more years, but the existance the people in my town lead is not one worth trying to extend. Cigars aren't that important. My grandfather was tortured, put in a concentration camp, and barely escaped looking for freedom and some dignity.  He died this year and never once regretted leaving or not going back. How can we forget the thousands like him just because we like cigars? Education will only get you so far on this topic. Go to Miami or come to tampa and live in our shoes, the exiles shoes, to get a better idea...

Thank you.  Perfectly said.  I'm half Cuban myself, but was raised by my grandfather who was also thrown in a concentration camp before finally being able to leave once he refused to join the communist.  Same with my uncle.  Unfortunately, both are no longer alive.  It's all perspective.  

[Ken Gargett]

2 hours ago, dgixxer252525 said:

Not wanting to get banned or start an argument, but all of you speak like non Cubans. Well i am Cuban 100% and my family and the people in my town saw 0 change with Obama's detente. We WANT sanctions because it will force change...maybe not now or even in 60 more years, but the existance the people in my town lead is not one worth trying to extend. Cigars aren't that important. My grandfather was tortured, put in a concentration camp, and barely escaped looking for freedom and some dignity.  He died this year and never once regretted leaving or not going back. How can we forget the thousands like him just because we like cigars? Education will only get you so far on this topic. Go to Miami or come to tampa and live in our shoes, the exiles shoes, to get a better idea...

i put up the original post but i was not thinking of cigars (they may cost a bomb here but we do not have the embargo). it was a general economic post, if you prefer. i don't think anyone (certainly not me) is suggesting that they support a communist regime. quite the opposite. 

in fairness to what obama did, his efforts, really only little more than a toe in the water, had only a year or two to take effect. the sanctions have been in place for 60 years, almost (and while what i have seen is hardly earth-shattering, i would say that there were seeds of change from obama's efforts - so many on laptops or with phones, something they never had before that, and the more contact with the outside world, the more chance of forcing change from within).

but really, will sanctions force change? if i, and i suspect many, thought that was true, then they'd have a lot more support. 60 years and they have done little, as far as i can see, other than entrench the current regime. and i do not believe that there is any reason to think that another 60 years will change that. 

what happened to your family, and those of so many others, was appalling (and what was happening under batista equally so) but i do not see sanctions rectifying that. hopefully something does happen but i don't see how hurting the general population achieves that. it seems to me that the ones who benefit are the very same ones, or the descendants and supporters thereof, you and many of us would like punished or at least removed. 

[dgixxer252525]

The sanctions never had the impact we desired because the USSR and then Venezuela propped the Castro's up. They are gone now and we remain...is being on life support a life worth living? That's the question

[Corylax18]

12 hours ago, dgixxer252525 said:

Not wanting to get banned or start an argument, but all of you speak like non Cubans. Well i am Cuban 100% and my family and the people in my town saw 0 change with Obama's detente. We WANT sanctions because it will force change...maybe not now or even in 60 more years, but the existance the people in my town lead is not one worth trying to extend. Cigars aren't that important. My grandfather was tortured, put in a concentration camp, and barely escaped looking for freedom and some dignity.  He died this year and never once regretted leaving or not going back. How can we forget the thousands like him just because we like cigars? Education will only get you so far on this topic. Go to Miami or come to tampa and live in our shoes, the exiles shoes, to get a better idea...

I agree that most Cubans (those outside of the biggest cities) saw little change during the BRIEF and partial "thaw" during Obama. But I have never heard one Cuban, ever, anywhere on the Island say that they "want" or even supported Sanctions in any way. None. Refugees in the States seem to support them with Vigor, which makes sense, if you don't have to live with the consequences of those sanctions everyday. 

The truth is, the sanctions have done just as much to lower the living standards of the Cuban people as the regime has. If not more. The "existence of the people in your town" is because of the sanctions, not despite them. Same with every town in Cuba. The sanctions are also the ONLY excuse the Cuban Government has left for the myriad failures. They have no one and nothing else to blame it on. The longer they continue, the longer the regime has that crutch to rest on. 

The sanctions have never affected the Castros and they still don't. Fidel had houses, boats, airplanes, ate what he wanted, travelled where he wanted and Died with more power/control over the populace than he started with. The same with Raul. Im not sure how you justify decades of suffering for more than 11 million Cubans with ZERO results. 

I understand why you would be upset about the way your family was treated, but nearly every country in History has seen the government treat some or all of the populace unfairly. I'm not aware of any other country in modern times that has allowed that mis treatment to destroy the entire country for several future generations.(Maybe the DPRK) The sanctions haven't and will never punish the people you are mad at. 

46 minutes ago, dgixxer252525 said:

The sanctions never had the impact we desired because the USSR and then Venezuela propped the Castro's up. They are gone now and we remain...is being on life support a life worth living? That's the question

Don't Forget China! I agree with you here. The efficacy of any Sanctions is drastically reduced when you have multiple, huge, resource rich countries that are more than happy to bust said sanctions. 

[dgixxer252525]

So you say to normailize relations? Forget the billions of dollars of property that was stolen, forget that no matter what the economy looks like there are still no freedoms, forget that innocent people are jailed daily for speaking their minds, forget that Cuba has been a supporter of Iran, NK, USSR, Venezuela, and Nicaragua?

"El bloqeo esta aqui, no alla!" Thats what real Cubans will tell you...the Castros are the blockade, not the USA. Tourists and professors around the globe have no clue. You can continue to support it...far from the realities of Cuba. My aunt is there and hates Obama for propping the Castros up...when you go again, leave Vinales, Varadero, marina hemingway, and old Havana. Head to San Antonio de los Banos, Alquizar, or the city of Guida. See who the people there support. 

[Nino]

1 hour ago, dgixxer252525 said:

"El bloqeo esta aqui, no alla!" Thats what real Cubans will tell you...the Castros are the blockade, not the USA.

Cannot agree more with that, as I often hear most Cubans make fun of "El Bloqueo" by blaming everything on it while fully aware it is THEIR own gvt. that is blocking progress and development...A valve to laugh at the gvt's stupid insistence on blaming all problems to "El Bloqueo".

Last week it was announced that no more meat sausages can be produced as there are no animals left to use for sausages ... so they are using Claria ( a pond-raised predator catfish from SE Asia ) to make sausages.

Of course, the fact that Cubas has neither pigs, chickens or anything that can be used to make sausages is due to the "El Bloqueo". Just like the rationing of basic food ...

Tell that to a Cuban and he will agree : Good joke !

https://www.14ymedio.com/blogs/origenes/claria-cien-especies-daninas-mundo_7_1672702714.html

[dgixxer252525]

25 minutes ago, nino said:

Cannot agree more with that, as I often hear most Cubans make fun of "El Bloqueo" by blaming everything on it while fully aware it is THEIR own gvt. that is blocking progress and development...A valve to laugh at the gvt's stupid insistence on blaming all problems to "El Bloqueo".

Last week it was announced that no more meat sausages can be produced as there are no animals left to use for sausages ... so they are using Claria ( a pond-raised predator catfish from SE Asia ) to make sausages.

Of course, the fact that Cubas has neither pigs, chickens or anything that can be used to make sausages is due to the "El Bloqueo". Just like the rationing of basic food ...

Tell that to a Cuban and he will agree : Good joke !

https://www.14ymedio.com/blogs/origenes/claria-cien-especies-daninas-mundo_7_1672702714.html

Exactly...if you know, you know...

[Nino]

3 hours ago, dgixxer252525 said:

Exactly...if you know, you know...

Mi hermano, ya tu sabes... no es facil y estamos en la lucha.

Lo demas es la boberia del bloqueo. No se lo cree ya ni quien invento la palabra.

Un saludo cordial.

[Thig]

Just because communism has never worked is no reason to give it up.

Sarcasm intended I am sure as was in my post.

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[MPS]

Sarcasm intended I am sure as was in my post.

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Absolutely!


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