Cuban Government is in a little bit of trouble: Perfect Storm

[El Presidente]

1. The Venezuelan maduro Government is on its knees. 

If you wonder why this is important, check out the following 

 

 

        2. Increasing right wing calls for a tightening up of US Cuba policy. 

The U.S. should not stand for this. As it rightly supports Guaido's increasingly threatened government, the Trump administration should expel Cuba's ambassador and ban visiting Americans from importing Cuban cigars, which account for nearly 20 percent of Cuba's export economy. The U.S. should also order U.S. companies to freeze their investments in Cuban foreign capital generating businesses such as hotels. Hopefully, Cuba will get the message and decrease its support for Maduro.

 

Cuba's exports look like this. Tobacco is not 20% but still significant. It just goes to show how Cuba's economy is a genuine disaster. 

Fuel products may come as a surprise. that is Venezuelan fuel that it refines and sells. 

 

Perfect Storm?

Cuba is 5 minutes away from losing it's major trading partner and major export. 

The result would be calamitous for Cuba and it's people. 

It may also accelerate change at a pace we had not previously considered. 

checkmate?

This is not a US political thread. if you turn it into one, see you around Easter.  

 

[CaptainQuintero]

  It does seem the the Venezuela situation has reached the tipping point that we've seen so many times over the last couple of decades. It's gone too far to turn back and it's going to have major change, for the good or bad, very soon. 

  We've seen just on the last few weeks news about how Cuba has been seemingly brought to various knife edges due to the Brazil medical and general Venezuela situation, it doesn't look like it has much more wiggle room.

  I don't get the impression that there will be riots in Cuba demanding change but you can't rule it out. The regime are masters of clinging on so I wouldn't be surprised if it keeps hold. China and Russia seem happy to prop up/massively invest in a nation if it takes a few eggs out of the US basket and plops them into their own ala Russia and Syria or China and various African/Pacific batiks nations. I'd guess that is where the future lies more than Cuban regime change or political reforms.

 It wouldn't take much effort on China's part to put similar amounts of investment into Cuba that they've done in Africa during the last decade. It would be interesting to see how much change to Cuban society that could bring about. None of the old McDonald's on each corner fears, but Chinese companies doing big infrastructure projects, work programs and food/medical centres

[FOHrty9er]

This seems to be headed down a similar path.... the rabbit hole.  I feel for the people of each "nation." This type of sh*t is exactly why I don't run for president ?

[LLC]

The first chart is from 2013 and isn’t it fair to say since the plunge in oil prices in 2014 Venezuela has steadily become a smaller contributor to Cuba?


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[stogieluver]

The beautiful Cuban people don't deserve this crap, but I hope against hope their way out isn't through China or Russia propping up the Castro regime. 

[RijkdeGooier]

The Cuban military machine props up Venezuelan and Nicaraguan regimes. 

The Venezuelans have always footed the bill since Chavez. 

With Venezuela falling to support the other two, expect big changes in Nicaragua and after that in Cuba, unless China steps in. 

[peteando]

Maduro will soon be gone.  Only the military is left to support him and he has neither the charisma or oil money that kept Chavez going.  The difference in Cuba imo is that the people have never known a middle class lifestyle.  Making due with less is how life goes there.  This isn't typically the fire that stokes a popular uprising leading to regime change.

[Jimmy_jack]

I work with someone who's born and raised in Cuba. His wife is from Venezuela. Until recently I never considered the interesting connection.

Her family is starving to death. They cannot buy food. It's horrible. I hope it changes soon.

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[Philc2001]

This is very sad for the Cuban and Venezuelan people, I know several people from both nations. It is heart wrenching for them to endure what their families are going through. 

While I think the US can act unilaterally to pressure Cuba, they cannot really do much more than they already have. The points under #2 just don't make any sense, it punishes the wrong people just to make a statement. Right wingers think that unilateral action against Cuba will somehow lead to regime change, but it hasn't worked in 60 years, and it just won't ever work. It didn't change anything when Castro passed either. And it won't work when Raul passes. There is no international support for a broader and encompassing embargo, and most countries are not going to risk being tainted by the humanitarian crisis that would unfold. Besides, this is a tightrope for any politician to walk  in the US because old first generation Cuban Americans would be pleased, but many younger ones and many Americans outside that demographic oppose it. There is not clear path to political success when it comes to Cuban relations.   

Venezuela is a little different, and I don't see how that gets resolved without more bloodshed. I just hope the US and other international military powers can stay out of it. Maduro is clinging to what little power he has left, and he doesn't seem to be willing to step down without a fight.  I would not rule out some stupid move he might make that would alienate international powers and force the US or a coalition to have to step in and put him down.

[IanMcLean68]

8 hours ago, Philc2001 said:

This is very sad for the Cuban and Venezuelan people, I know several people from both nations. It is heart wrenching for them to endure what their families are going through. 

While I think the US can act unilaterally to pressure Cuba, they cannot really do much more than they already have. The points under #2 just don't make any sense, it punishes the wrong people just to make a statement. Right wingers think that unilateral action against Cuba will somehow lead to regime change, but it hasn't worked in 60 years, and it just won't ever work. It didn't change anything when Castro passed either. And it won't work when Raul passes. There is no international support for a broader and encompassing embargo, and most countries are not going to risk being tainted by the humanitarian crisis that would unfold. Besides, this is a tightrope for any politician to walk  in the US because old first generation Cuban Americans would be pleased, but many younger ones and many Americans outside that demographic oppose it. There is not clear path to political success when it comes to Cuban relations.   

Venezuela is a little different, and I don't see how that gets resolved without more bloodshed. I just hope the US and other international military powers can stay out of it. Maduro is clinging to what little power he has left, and he doesn't seem to be willing to step down without a fight.  I would not rule out some stupid move he might make that would alienate international powers and force the US or a coalition to have to step in and put him down.

I need to remember a very important point you made in your post here. It's an obvious thing that I always knew but always seem to forget this whenever I am asked. I smoke around a majority of people that know very little about cigars or about Cuban culture, and I have quite often been asked the same questions - firstly, "aren't they illegal", and then when you explain that no, they have never been illegal anywhere other than the US, I get the obvious question as to why no other country supported the US in the embargo.

My answer has always centred around Cuban exports, esp. of cigars and rum, and how popular these exports are amongst the elite.
What I had not considered mentioning is the humanitarian disaster that would likely result in Cuba if the embargo was made more encompassing and involved more nations than the US.

Combining these two factors really does give a good explanation. PS: I am certainly not trying to turn this into a political discussion, I'm simply musing about how important this point really is in describing the current situation to people. It also helps explain why the US can't really do much more than it has, and why the measures taken so far have for a large part failed.