North Korea ?? Your thougjts

[rhcolbert]

On 4/16/2017 at 10:10 AM, MahDooRow said:

I remain optimistic that China will use its influence to keep N. Korea in check.  Reports of China's actions following the meeting between Xi and Trump seem positive.  Following the failed N. Korea missile test I'm glad to see that Trump is showing some restraint by refraining from provocative statements and impulsive tweets.

Probsbly b/c we had a hand in why it blew up.?

[vinnyvega]

On 4/15/2017 at 4:54 AM, Winchester21 said:

Kill this piece  of garbage before he gets far enough along to start selling off his nukes

That's a bingo!!!

Almost 4 pages of discussion and we finally get to what will most likely happen rather than an "all out war".

 

[Philc2001]

2 hours ago, vinnyvega said:

That's a bingo!!!

Almost 4 pages of discussion and we finally get to what will most likely happen rather than an "all out war".

 

Pure fantasy, and a very dangerous idea I might add. This is not the right time, or the right maniac to play a game of brinksmanship with.

In case you missed the parade in N.K. over the weekend, you may not be aware that N.K. revealed they have developed SOLID FUEL missile propulsion technology.

Ok, so what!?!?!

Well, until now it was believed N.K. only had liquid fueled rockets, which have to be staged on a launch pad (either above or below ground), and then fueled before it takes off. Subsequently, their long-range liquid fuel rockets have to be launched from stationary launch pads, with nearby fuel storage. From a strategic warfare standpoint their launch pads and fuel storage could be pinpointed and targeted.

But with solid fuel rockets they can launch from anywhere, including mobile launchers, with little to no advance warning. They can launch them from highly populated areas, or from a forest, from submarines, they can keep them hidden and launch on demand in a matter of minutes. And each an every rocket could be launched from a different location, without giving away their launch pad coordinates. 

That virtually assures N.K. will be able to strike S. Korea, Japan and possibly Hawaii and other places. Any form of attack on Kim himself, or any target in N.K. would have disastrous consequences.

[mygar]

As this goes on and NK abilities increase...  is as scary or scarier than Cuban missle crisis. 

Its intense... and can you imagine if they had an icbm with a nuclear warhead?

Something has to be done.... and it wont be without risk whatever it is.

[Philc2001]

On 4/16/2017 at 10:10 AM, MahDooRow said:

I remain optimistic that China will use its influence to keep N. Korea in check.  Reports of China's actions following the meeting between Xi and Trump seem positive.  Following the failed N. Korea missile test I'm glad to see that Trump is showing some restraint by refraining from provocative statements and impulsive tweets.

There is an interesting dynamic in play here. With N. Korea bordering both China and Russia, neither China nor Russia would ever want North and South Korea to be unified ever again. Neither one would ever want a western, non-communist government in N. Korea either. Even with North Korea as a buffer, putting any kind of US missile defense system, or worse - putting any US nukes in South Korea, cannot possibly be tolerated by either China or Russia - they will do everything in their power to prevent that from happening. And right now, the chubby little man in Pyongyang is the ensuring that it doesn't end up that way. China may have some leverage, but they have no vested interest in deposing the guy, or allowing the South and the North to get cozy with one another.

Think of this dangerous showdown as the reverse of the showdown the US had with the USSR in the Cuban missile crisis. This time it's the US who is trying to put strike capability right on the border of China and Russia. I hope that makes it obvious why neither China or Russia will ever allow the N.K. regime to fall.  

[Philc2001]

13 minutes ago, mygar said:

As this goes on and NK abilities increase...  is as scary or scarier than Cuban missle crisis. 

Its intense... and can you imagine if they had an icbm with a nuclear warhead?

Something has to be done.... and it wont be without risk whatever it is.

It's a bit odd that the media tries to scare us with this angle. First of all, N. Korea already has nukes, we know that because they've already had multiple tests. But the west downplays the fact that N. Korea borders both China and Russia. Both China and Russia are super powers, they both have nuclear ICBM capabilities, and they can easily reach both S. Korea and Japan, and for that matter, they can easily reach any of the fifty states. N. Korea is a strategic buffer from the US, and frankly I would not be surprised if Chinese and/or Russian nuclear missiles have been hidden in N. Korea for decades.  

[Ken Gargett]

6 minutes ago, Philc2001 said:

There is an interesting dynamic in play here. With N. Korea bordering both China and Russia, neither China nor Russia would ever want North and South Korea to be unified ever again. Neither one would ever want a western, non-communist government in N. Korea either. Even with North Korea as a buffer, putting any kind of US missile defense system, or worse - putting any US nukes in South Korea, cannot possibly be tolerated by either China or Russia - they will do everything in their power to prevent that from happening. And right now, the chubby little man in Pyongyang is the ensuring that it doesn't end up that way. China may have some leverage, but they have no vested interest in deposing the guy, or allowing the South and the North to get cozy with one another.

Think of this dangerous showdown as the reverse of the showdown the US had with the USSR in the Cuban missile crisis. This time it's the US who is trying to put strike capability right on the border of China and Russia. I hope that makes it obvious why neither China or Russia will ever allow the N.K. regime to fall.  

given that the current occupant of the white house is perhaps a tad more belligerent towards NK than his predecessors in recent years, to what extent do you think china/russia would go to to prevent regime change? if trump pushes the button, so to speak, will either get into a shooting war to defend the north?

at least in this instance, the world thinks the NK leader to be box of frogs and foghorn leghorn to be relatively restrained in comparison, he does have world opinion, thin as it might be, on his side. assuming that does not last (unless NK do something seriously dumb), perhaps he thinks he is better off doing it now.

i can understand both china/russia being mortified if any suggestion of boots on the ground but surely it won't come to that?

[Philc2001]

1 minute ago, Ken Gargett said:

given that the current occupant of the white house is perhaps a tad more belligerent towards NK than his predecessors in recent years, to what extent do you think china/russia would go to to prevent regime change? if trump pushes the button, so to speak, will either get into a shooting war to defend the north?

at least in this instance, the world thinks the NK leader to be box of frogs and foghorn leghorn to be relatively restrained in comparison, he does have world opinion, thin as it might be, on his side. assuming that does not last (unless NK do something seriously dumb), perhaps he thinks he is better off doing it now.

i can understand both china/russia being mortified if any suggestion of boots on the ground but surely it won't come to that?

Ken, I am quite certain that both China and Russia would resist with all their might. They have kept NK from collapsing for 64 years, they're not about to give it up any time soon. The Russians have been very aggressive in keeping Georgia and Ukraine from entering Nato for the same reason. Strategically, it would be unthinkable to let the US get a beachhead on the Korean peninsula and establish a strike or even a defensive capability there. They won't allow it any more than we would allow Russia or China to put nukes in Cuba.

[El Presidente]

16 minutes ago, Philc2001 said:

There is an interesting dynamic in play here. With N. Korea bordering both China and Russia, neither China nor Russia would ever want North and South Korea to be unified ever again. Neither one would ever want a western, non-communist government in N. Korea either.

 

Democracies are the best neighbours you can ever have!!!. In the main, impotent, introspective and self obsessed. They are too busy putting out their own internal fires....running elections at a stupid frequency, blowing out budgets in order to get re-elected, trying to fix the problems caused with the promises used to be re-elected.....and doing it all over again.  

I mean.....Does China have any real problems with India?  You bet your papadum they don't. 

And yet North Korea causes them nothing but concern. Even with inbreeding what odds would you get to have a father and son that closely aligned!.  It makes the movie "Team America" a documentary. 

 

[MIKA27]

Whats to say North Korea are possibly fooling everyone, playing "limp" and possibly now having perfected their technology?

Perhaps Kim is just blood thirsty, he knows if the US and allies finally pull the pin and launch a strike, he has nothing to lose even if its at his own detriment? 

It's all really very cold war like if you ask me. Perhaps not played out as intelligently as the Russians and US back in the day but still, very similar. The past decade, sabre rattling, the world ignoring North Korea as a non threat all the while giving them time to test, develop their arsenal...? One never knows and I truly hope something positive becomes of this without war or a dead man trigger of sorts.

I wish there were a magic wand to remove Kim but right now I don't see any magic making this go away.

[Ken Gargett]

6 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

 

Democracies are the best neighbours you can ever have!!!. In the main, impotent, introspective and self obsessed. They are too busy putting out their own internal fires....running elections at a stupid frequency, blowing out budgets in order to get re-elected, trying to fix the problems caused with the promises used to be re-elected.....and doing it all over again.  

I mean.....Does China have any real problems with India?  You bet your papadum they don't.

 

i assume you mean other than the sino-indian war in the 60s and various other armed clashes over the years?

[Ken Gargett]

7 minutes ago, Philc2001 said:

Ken, I am quite certain that both China and Russia would resist with all their might. They have kept NK from collapsing for 64 years, they're not about to give it up any time soon. The Russians have been very aggressive in keeping Georgia and Ukraine from entering Nato for the same reason. Strategically, it would be unthinkable to let the US get a beachhead on the Korean peninsula and establish a strike or even a defensive capability there. They won't allow it any more than we would allow Russia or China to put nukes in Cuba.

agree completely with that but again, that would be a boots ion the ground scenario.

if it were simply a few very large bombs (whether the states stuffed the attempt a few days ago or the NKs did it themselves, one has to wonder if they are as "ready" as they claim - big risk, i know, but i'll never forget a report in the early days in Iraq which noted that the people most surprised that they could find no WMDs were saddam's generals), and no boots. NK then does whatever with the dictator hopefully in pieces, would there still be such problems? i do think that the first time there are boots, it goes up a million notches.

[El Presidente]

Just now, Ken Gargett said:

i assume you mean other than the sino-indian war in the 60s and various other armed clashes over the years?

Apologies. 

I meant there have been no problems with India ever since China decided that Marxism was total crap and what it really wanted was to be a big time capitalist superpower without the pesky burden of democracy. 

[CdnLimitada]

If you listen to many of the people of NK that have escaped you would hear some really crazy and sad stories.  People being executed for watching a Hollywood movie kind of crazy.  I really think that the UN should get involved even if it meant doing something militarily.  Of course this is a simple viewpoint and probably is not that simple.  I am just not sure the whole "wait it out until they implode" is working especially for the people that live in terror daily.  I do not think that unilateral US military action is the best thing for the US but may be great for the people of NK. 

[Ken Gargett]

5 minutes ago, CdnLimitada said:

If you listen to many of the people of NK that have escaped you would hear some really crazy and sad stories.  People being executed for watching a Hollywood movie kind of crazy.  I really think that the UN should get involved even if it meant doing something militarily.  Of course this is a simple viewpoint and probably is not that simple.  I am just not sure the whole "wait it out until they implode" is working especially for the people that live in terror daily.  I do not think that unilateral US military action is the best thing for the US but may be great for the people of NK. 

the problem for the UN - among many - is the power of veto afforded to permanent members of the security council. so if either china or russia do not want a UN force in korea, which they would almost certainly oppose, they can veto it and the UN cannot act. the only reason the UN were involved in the 'previous' korean war was because at the time, taiwan had the chinese vote and russia was boycotting the UN because of that, i believe. hence, the vote went through without the russian veto which would almost certainly have happened if they'd been present.

[Philc2001]

2 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

agree completely with that but again, that would be a boots ion the ground scenario.

if it were simply a few very large bombs (whether the states stuffed the attempt a few days ago or the NKs did it themselves, one has to wonder if they are as "ready" as they claim - big risk, i know, but i'll never forget a report in the early days in Iraq which noted that the people most surprised that they could find no WMDs were saddam's generals), and no boots. NK then does whatever with the dictator hopefully in pieces, would there still be such problems? i do think that the first time there are boots, it goes up a million notches.

A fair amount of intel about NK's arsenal and capabilities has been verified by defectors and spies within NK and in SK. Also, NK puts a lot of their hardware on display in various showy parades, much like the USSR used to do, so we at least know what sort of toys they play with. A significant amount of ordinance is also visible from the south side of the DMZ - meant to be a visible deterrent. Though our estimates of their capacity may be inflated, it is verifiably lethal enough to put millions of S. Koreans at risk.

The comparison to Iraq is not useful in this case. Ritter had overseen and verified the destruction of Iraq's WMDS after Dessert Storm, but the US wanted regime change in the wake of 9/11, so they created a smoke screen. Similarly, the USSR's arsenal was overestimated, and then decades later we found out the arsenal didn't quite live up to the hype, though it was still lethal enough to kill all life on earth many times over.  

The US  has had thousands of troops stationed in SK since 1953, and carrier based nuclear strike capabilities in the region for several decades,  and I'm sure there is a couple of nuclear subs just offshore, so we don't need to put bombs in SK, we can bring overwhelming firepower to any square mile in NK within minutes. But to strike first would be reckless, to put it mildly, in the viewpoint of SK and Japan who would be the immediate victims of the North's retaliation. Even if we managed to shut them down, any first strike on NK would necessarily kill tens of thousands, and possibly 100s of thousands. The escalation from there would likely be WW3.

[Ken Gargett]

1 minute ago, Philc2001 said:

A fair amount of intel about NK's arsenal and capabilities has been verified by defectors and spies within NK and in SK. Also, NK puts a lot of their hardware on display in various showy parades, much like the USSR used to do, so we at least know what sort of toys they play with. A significant amount of ordinance is also visible from the south side of the DMZ - meant to be a visible deterrent. Though our estimates of their capacity may be inflated, it is verifiably lethal enough to put millions of S. Koreans at risk.

The comparison to Iraq is not useful in this case. Ritter had overseen and verified the destruction of Iraq's WMDS after Dessert Storm, but the US wanted regime change in the wake of 9/11, so they created a smoke screen. Similarly, the USSR's arsenal was overestimated, and then decades later we found out the arsenal didn't quite live up to the hype, though it was still lethal enough to kill all life on earth many times over.  

The US  has had thousands of troops stationed in SK since 1953, and carrier based nuclear strike capabilities in the region for several decades,  and I'm sure there is a couple of nuclear subs just offshore, so we don't need to put bombs in SK, we can bring overwhelming firepower to any square mile in NK within minutes. But to strike first would be reckless, to put it mildly, in the viewpoint of SK and Japan who would be the immediate victims of the North's retaliation. Even if we managed to shut them down, any first strike on NK would necessarily kill tens of thousands, and possibly 100s of thousands. The escalation from there would likely be WW3.

and there is the problem. even if their capability is wildly overestimated, they only need one to get through and the world is in chaos. never the same again. it would be insanity to strike first, but on the other hand, if they are convinced the fruitcake is about to do something staggeringly crazy, do they have an obligation to strike to stop it? ideally any strike would be limited to the military facilities but inevitably there would be innocent casualties. and any first strike has to be comprehensive enough to prevent any form of retaliation. is that possible?

and sorry if i misled, i meant boots into NK. understood re the US in SK. had an old girl friend from the states who worked in arms control, mostly chemical weapons verification (what i didn't know about chemical weapons back in the day, wasn't worth knowing!!) and she always maintained, even back in the late 80s/early 90s that the most dangerous place on the planet was the DMZ between the two koreas and that this was the place most likely to send the world into oblivion. and that was even before the wall came down.

[MIKA27]

45 minutes ago, CdnLimitada said:

If you listen to many of the people of NK that have escaped you would hear some really crazy and sad stories.  People being executed for watching a Hollywood movie kind of crazy.  I really think that the UN should get involved even if it meant doing something militarily.  Of course this is a simple viewpoint and probably is not that simple.  I am just not sure the whole "wait it out until they implode" is working especially for the people that live in terror daily.  I do not think that unilateral US military action is the best thing for the US but may be great for the people of NK. 

This is a good article

[Ken Gargett]

1 minute ago, MIKA27 said:

This is a good article

saw one NK scientist interviewed last night. he would not believe the missile failed. no way. the govt would not lie.

it also reminded me of travelling about russia in the mid 80s, which was incredible fun and a real eye-opener. just talking to other young people (i was young then). they were utterly convinced that the states was the bad guy (not suggesting anything other than both sides had their faults). they had absolutely no doubt that the states was waiting for the first chance it could get to destroy their entire country. they were stunned when i said that the west thought pretty much the same thing, only in reverse. they could not believe the west could ever have thought them a country wanting war or to attack anyone. some just thought i was lying. others were genuinely stunned that there could be such a point of view.

[MIKA27]

North Korea Shows It's Not Ready For Primetime

On Saturday morning, the front pages of American news outlets were plastered with photos of North Korean "Frankenmissiles" being paraded through the streets of Pyongyang. Less than 24 hours later, the tin-pot dictatorship tested a ballistic missile that reportedly fizzled in a matter of seconds. Now, U.S. authorities are showing signs that a conflict can be averted.

According to U.S. and South Korean authorities, the U.S. Pacific Command "detected and tracked what we assess was a North Korean missile launch at 11:21 a.m. Hawaii time April 15." The type of missile that was used is still being assessed. Last month, North Korea fired four Scud-Extended Range missiles that could be used to attack U.S. and Japanese military bases but the ballistics only flew about 64km before losing control. It would require a far more sophisticated intercontinental ballistic missile for North Korea to strike the mainland in the United States.

Vice President Pence was on his way to make a scheduled appearance in the South Korean capital of Seoul when the missile test occurred. It's notable that the U.S. military did not consider it a risk for the Vice President to be in the region at the time. A U.S. foreign policy adviser travelling with Pence told Reuters: "We had good intelligence before the launch and good intelligence after the launch." The administration is remaining coy about whether or not sabotage was involved and Defence Secretary Jim Mattis issued a terse statement that offered no clues. "The president and his military team are aware of North Korea's most recent unsuccessful missile launch," Mattis wrote. "The president has no further comment."

Oh, but the president did have further comment regarding North Korea and China. He tweeted early Sunday morning, "Why would I call China a currency manipulator when they are working with us on the North Korean problem? We will see what happens!" The tweet was a reference to his campaign pledge to label China a currency manipulator. It would appear that Trump is walking back his tough talk on China as they take the lead in containing the situation in North Korea.

In recent months Chinese authorities have suspended imports of North Korean coal and supported UN sanctions against the country in a signal that their patience has run thin. Last week, China's diplomats quietly urged the U.S. to relax its aggressive talk that could lead to unnecessary war and they have reportedly enlisted Russia's assistance in defusing the tensions.

Following a week of news that included American warships moving into position in the Korean peninsula, the U.S. posture appears to be experiencing a bit of whiplash. Authorities have been anticipating another nuclear test from North Korea this month and Trump has officially put the country "on notice," whatever that means. But they appear to be breathing a sigh of relief now that North Korea has once again shown that its technology isn't nearly as advanced as it claims. The anonymous foreign policy adviser travelling with the vice president told reporters that there will be no response from Washington:

Quote

It's a failed test. It follows another failed test. So really no need to reinforce their failure. We don't need to expend any resources against that.

Officials have also indicated that the U.S. doesn't actually intend to use military force and the current strategy is one of "maximum pressure and engagement."

There are a lot of players at the table who like to talk big right now, so it's probably best to keep a cool head about any impending war with North Korea.

[Philc2001]

7 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

and there is the problem. even if their capability is wildly overestimated, they only need one to get through and the world is in chaos. never the same again.

Precisely. This is not about winning, or about a show of might, it is about innocent lives at stake that would be killed because of big egos. 

[Baldy]

Someone need to book Kim Jong-un on United Airlines.

[Fosgate]

My thoughts:

First off it is not a choice of if we go to war with North Korea. We already are, we (The UN) have been at an agreed cease fire for decades now. Fat Kim has been developing nukes now for 10 years and with each failure comes new knowledge all while we have been protesting on deaf ears. That little prick has no intention of backing down once he has them and he will hold S. Korea in one hand with while yielding a nuke in the other like a hostage taker he is. In order to do so he will need to successfully launch and detonate one on either Japan or the U.S. Mainland. NK within the last couple years hit a SK island with an ARTY Barrage or did everyone forget that? Also if he isn't crazy enough to toss a Nuke at the U.S. the Iranians are. This guys been on the job a whole 5 years and with any luck will not live to see another 5. China wants the trade and resources with NK but really does not want it starting chit with the U.S. (The biggest buyer of Chinese goods and debtor to China). China simply cannot afford a war with the U.S. and wants both sides to cool it. China could however, tolerate a surgical strike, severing the NK leadership so long as the 150k troops it recently moved up near it's border went in an stabilized the country while it installs it's own communist government.

 

Russia veto'd the UN proposal to scold NK possibly because of old relations as they were with the NK during the war and simply hates the UN and NATO voting for it. Though Russia really has not showed their hand, they recently flew a flight of bombers near the Alaskan coast. Though they have does this before the timing is impeccable. I don't think the issue in NK is so much an issue for them as Syria and Ukraine though. Their actions in NK I feel are dependent on actions in their other two combat theaters. Opening up a conflict with the U.N. while those are going on strategically would be unwise as it would immediately be fighting wars on multiple fronts along her borders.

There are these and many more ideas that I'm sure have already gone through the "Warrior Munk" former Marine Corps General James "Mad Dog" Mattis  and now currently Secretary of War..I mean State. The guy is hands down the most capable General the U.S. has had for a very long time and a brilliant tactician. One thing is for certain, the moves the U.S. are going to make in the coming moths are not going to be for the world to know or predict as the play book has been in the past. Right now they are keeping them guessing feeding him every opportunity to back out but at the same time Mattis is preparing "To kill everyone in the room." He will not make the error MacArthur did in Korea. 

[JohnInCleveland]

23 hours ago, CdnLimitada said:

If you listen to many of the people of NK that have escaped you would hear some really crazy and sad stories.  People being executed for watching a Hollywood movie kind of crazy.  I really think that the UN should get involved even if it meant doing something militarily.  Of course this is a simple viewpoint and probably is not that simple.  I am just not sure the whole "wait it out until they implode" is working especially for the people that live in terror daily.  I do not think that unilateral US military action is the best thing for the US but may be great for the people of NK. 

If you're waiting for the UN to become useful, make sure you're sitting on something comfortable and have plenty of good smokes to tide you over until hell freezes over.

[MIKA27]

19 minutes ago, JohnInCleveland said:

If you're waiting for the UN to become useful, make sure you're sitting on something comfortable and have plenty of good smokes to tide you over until hell freezes over.

But they "Condemn it" that's got to count toward something.... right?