I take it back....

[smokum]

I never thought of my CC's as an investment. If thats how it turns out it will be the first time I picked a winner in a long time !

[El Presidente]

This all makes me wonder what happens after the Castro boys have passed. Anybody have a guess as to whether a post-Castro Cuba would liberalize enough to allow foreign investment?

There is foreign investment today. Local JV partner, 50% ....normally ends in disaster for the foreigner.

Naturally that is in approved areas of the economy only.

They already own say half the Cuban named brands in the USA via Altadis. I don't think they will struggle with distribution.

[PaulP]

Yes...my theory is the U.S. will impose taxes on Cuban cigars similar to Canada if they become legal...Yikes, indeed! Glad I took the time and effort to build my coolidor

Why would the US tax Cuban cigars more they tax non-Cuban cigars?

[sastrooper]

Not to poop on anyone's parade, but look what massively increased demand from the Far East has done to the Scottish whisky industry, not to mention En Primeur Bordeaux.

Stock up while you can.

This analogy is very apt, whisky (scottish or otherwise) has gone through the roof, same with bdx futures, esp 09 and 10. I dread the day cubans become like this

[Lotusguy]

I got a stash to last me well over 10 years - bring it on :evil:

[SCgarman]

I do not think the tobacco growing regions in Pinar Del Rio are large enough to produce enough tobacco if the US market opens up. They don't even use tractors or modern machinery to work the soil. Does Cuba even have fertilizers to replenish the nutrients in the soil in between crops? Couple these questions with factors in weather such as tropical storms and such that can destroy a tobacco crop and they may have big trouble supplying world demand. And HSA predicts they will own 70% of the US cigar market after things open up. I really think that might be a big pipe dream if they cannot produce adequate amounts of tobacco. I certainly hope the crappy cigars from the tobacco boom days do not make their way into market again with underfermented tobacco and poorly rolled cigars. It will be time to find a new hobby.

[planetary]

If it's really due to lack of quality leaf, I see the lack of recent Cohiba production as a good sign: don't sacrifice quality for volume. Whether that prevails in an upcoming period of high demand, or whether it applies for other marcas, time will tell.

[MrGTO]

The President cannot lift the embargo by exec order; he can however REDEFINE it by executive order, to essentially render it useless. Yes, the President *can* unilaterally make CCs legal again.

And given how emboldened he seems now that he is a lame duck (and finally getting stuff done again!), I would hardly put it past him.

Don't go insulting ducks with that kinda talk.

[SCgarman]

I was wavering in 2008/09. Almost walked away from the industry due to quality.

I was excited with Altadis coming on board circa 2000. Much needed money and professionalism.

I had high hopes with the LE Program of the early 2000's.

I was over the moon with the introduction of draw machines, freezing, tobacco reserves, the smoke-ability of young stock 2005/06.

I lost my rose coloured glasses with the Monte Open release of 2009 and confirmation of VP Garcia fraud (on a grand scale) in 2010. Something that had been known within Industry circles for some years prior.

Forward on to 2015. Some 2014 cigars not yet released. Many running a year late. Most Cohiba not produced for 6 months. Tobacco shortages.

Great core product. Great traditions. Completely baffling/dysfunctional management.

Hard to back them to get the next 5 years right.

You forgot to mention Hirochi Robaina now working for LaPalina and Hamlet Jaime Paredes working for Rocky Patel. 2 Cuban superstars who have left Cuba for bigger aspirations!

[CaptainQuintero]

I do not think the tobacco growing regions in Pinar Del Rio are large enough to produce enough tobacco if the US market opens up. They don't even use tractors or modern machinery to work the soil. Does Cuba even have fertilizers to replenish the nutrients in the soil in between crops? Couple these questions with factors in weather such as tropical storms and such that can destroy a tobacco crop and they may have big trouble supplying world demand. And HSA predicts they will own 70% of the US cigar market after things open up. I really think that might be a big pipe dream if they cannot produce adequate amounts of tobacco. I certainly hope the crappy cigars from the tobacco boom days do not make their way into market again with underfermented tobacco and poorly rolled cigars. It will be time to find a new hobby.

If I remember right, Cuba was making 200 million premium cigars a year at the turn of the last century with no issues, there's no issue with amount of quality land or growing potential/ability.

[JackFNQ]

Maybe Cuba has no intention of lifting their (cigar) embargo on the USA.

[Smallclub]

If I remember right, Cuba was making 200 million premium cigars a year at the turn of the last century with no issues,

errr... what about the millions of plugged cigars, and the cigars rolled with insufficiently fermented tobacco?

[leftimatic]

Maybe HSA plans to start importing tobacco from other countries in order to keep up with demand. If it hasn't started already. At least till they get enough money to update equipment and fertilizer and such. Just talking through my hat of course but, what if...

[shlomo]

Land to grow tobacco is not the problem. There is land. If they rush and underferment (read:forget to spray the leaves with mango juice lol), or they use too many unskilled labourers to cultivate, pick and roll, then that is where the problem will be.

[skalls]

I think hsa is correctly predicting that the embargo is still years, maybe even a decade or more, from being lifted.

I do find it curious that they aren't stockpiling more tobacco. With extra stockpile they could use it to dump onto the US market when it opens to them or use it to make more le and re cigars that are overpriced on their current market.

[CaptainQuintero]

Wasn't 1999-2001 a low point in quality?

errr... what about the millions of plugged cigars, and the cigars rolled with insufficiently fermented tobacco?

The turn of the last century, the early 1900s, I think the decades were 1890-1910 which had the 200million production mark until the first world war affected things.

I don't think the millennium surge even got to the 200m mark, they were aiming for 160/180?

So modern farming methods and area of land shouldn't be an issue to get back to those levels, only organisation is needed which is in all reality where the problem will lie.

[SCgarman]

Maybe HSA plans to start importing tobacco from other countries in order to keep up with demand. If it hasn't started already. At least till they get enough money to update equipment and fertilizer and such. Just talking through my hat of course but, what if...

There have been MANY rumors of Cuba secretly importing tobacco from Nicaragua to blend into their cigars due to tobacco shortages. Hey, you never know they would certainly never admit this to anyone!

[Smallclub]

There have been MANY rumors of Cuba secretly importing tobacco from Nicaragua to blend into their cigars due to tobacco shortages.

That's bullshit, you know it, I know it, everyone know it with the exception of some loony cigar shop owners.

A secret kept by:

Nicaraguan handlers workers + truck drivers + dockers + port workers + sailors, then, at arrival, cuban dockers + port workers + handlers + truck drivers, etc. etc.

What a joke.

Or maybe the Soprano family is in charge of the transportation of the tobacco?

[ElLoboLoco]

Yes, the Finding Bigfoot Team has made mention of this as a real possibility.

[planetary]

We've got some Coast to Coast AM fans here, I see. ;-)

(Speaking of which: did anyone else notice that Art Bell is back on the air, re-re-re-out of retirement?)

[El Presidente]

Could not be easier to smuggle in/out of Nicaragua for god's sake.

True.

Keeping it quiet in Cuba would be impossible.

Cuban trade normally follows the following "Doing Business With Cuba" handbook.

Shipment one all works well.

Shipment two much the same.

Cubans forget to pay (or contra) for shipment 3

.....and 4

All hell breaks loose.

Cubans pay for Shipment 5 but now flag quality issues with shipments 3-4 and seek resolution.

Contract terminated. Cubans owing for 2 shipments.

Cubans find another sucker to supply until their reputation is so bad that they burn all their contacts.

[Smallclub]

Boxes marked "x" go to port in Nica.

Boxes go on boat to "Miami."

Boat goes to Havana.

Boxes arrive at factory.

Tobacco added to storage.

I wasn't talking of feasibility, but chances to keep it “secret”.

As for smuggling anything IN Cuba, good luck with that.