Smallclub Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 Wasn't able to read the article at work, but I would think the people that would get hurt in the short time would be the European side and others. That would be "rob Peter to pay Paul". Won't happen.
Smallclub Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 HOnestly, what i really want to see is what guys like Jonathan drew, Pepin, Pete Johnson, Padron's will be able to do with Cuban Tobacco leaf. I think they can give habanos a good run for their money if they can have easy access to cuban tobacco Talk about a nightmare. Fortunately it won't happen. 2
DoubleDD Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 I wonder if the US B&M guys that claim Cuban tobacco is inferior will change their tune once they are able to profit from it. I've yet to meet a owner or manager that admits, in front of their clientele, they would rather smoke a CC. 3
semifan1 Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 That would be "rob Peter to pay Paul". Won't happen. Never say never. Look at all the regional and limited edition and other stuff HA is coming out with for money purposes. People can say stuff till they are blue in the face, but as we all know money talks. Of course all of this is hypothetical anyways ntil things really start moving.
CaptainQuintero Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 And here lies the biggest problem US manufacturers buying up Cuban Leaf! They can pay Cuban farmers more than HSA does. And then watch the Cuban market crumble Democracy at Work If the embargo ends, the political system in Cuba is still the same ie Cuba controls who does what. Farmers will be no more able to sell tobacco to NC companies the they can at the moment. The only time Cuban tobacco is sold outside of Cuba is when the Cuban government says so. A real free market will only happen if the Cuban government lets it or falls and the replacement government allows it. Currently in terms of trade, all the end of the embargo would do is let the Cuban government sell what it owns (Everything produced on the island.) to the USA if it chooses to and buy what it wants from the USA. Political change is a different issue completely in reality
anacostiakat Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 Yea, I don't see Cuba selling leaf to anyone. That makes no logical sense if you are penetrating a new market. The 25% - 30% seems reasonable but I agree that Cuba will have to up it's game in terms of construction and be much more consistent in their products. I don't buy the 70% number. Also we don't know what kind of pricing will come along when this finally happens and how that will compete with the current market in the US as well as these copy cat brand issues.
Smallclub Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 Hmm, "Habanos S.A. also promised to preserve the quality of its Cohibas, Montecristos and Romeo y Julietas should it need to ramp up production to meet any new U.S. demand" What happens to the rest? Cohiba, Montecristo and RyJ are the 3 most famous marcas worlwide, and obviously the only 3 that the journalist can name. By this he means "habanos in general"; it's not a quote from an actual formal declaration.
Smallclub Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 “We are never going to give up on quality,” Fernandez Maique said. Maique, the man who, when he was head of the french distributor Coprova, said about the 2006 Bolivar Libertadore: the blend will be very strong.
TheDistrictJP Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 Having now actually read the OP's linked article, I had to laugh at the predicted "eventual 70% share of the U.S. market". IMO, when the dust clears, more Nicaraguan cigars will be sold than Cuban in the US. You read it here HSA overestimating their ability to overtake swisher sweets market share, unless part of the master plan is to bring those bodega cigars along with the catalog. All they need is a plastic tip and a good way to hollow them out. You read it here! 1
TheDistrictJP Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 Talk about a nightmare. Fortunately it won't happen. LOL Tatuaje 'Cuban Mix' for all 14,000 of their cigar lines. The Ghurka Habano Project (codename G-Hab) will also be awesome. Instead of making Behikes with a US retail price point of $100 they're going to sell a farm's worth of tobacco to a competitor?
TheDistrictJP Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 I wonder if the US B&M guys that claim Cuban tobacco is inferior will change their tune once they are able to profit from it. I've yet to meet a owner or manager that admits, in front of their clientele, they would rather smoke a CC. They will be falling all over themselves to do exactly that. Hopefully at least some of them learn that storing in 75% RH walk ins is a bad idea.
canadianbeaver Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 On to my next light bulb moment. Cuba is an island with only so many square feet on it. Tobacco only grows in seasons. HSA can say they can meet demands of an open market but unless they start building second floors on farmers' fields, how will they do it?
Balboa Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 Habanos S.A will sell their premium brands, but I have a feeling they will probably flood the U.S market with their bargain brands: Guantanamera, Jose Piedra, etc., which can easily be mass produced. Therefore, following Habanos S.A logic, they can eliminate another popular handmade brand/vitola.
wabashcr Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 I agree with everyone who says the Cuban government won't sell tobacco to other manufacturers. Of course there will be no open market for Cuban tobacco. But once the embargo is lifted, I would still think some of the smaller DR and Nica manufacturers might find ways to get their hands on enough Cuban leaf to start releasing small batch blends. It will be scarce, for sure, but I bet it will happen on a small scale. I would also expect at some point post-embargo the government's grip on the tobacco industry will start to erode. It may be a more gradual progression, like China, as opposed to a clean break, like the former Soviet Union, but the current regime's days seem to be numbered once the embargo is lifted.
CaptainQuintero Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 On to my next light bulb moment. Cuba is an island with only so many square feet on it. Tobacco only grows in seasons. HSA can say they can meet demands of an open market but unless they start building second floors on farmers' fields, how will they do it? I cant remember the exact figures and dates off the top of my head but roughly at the start of the 20th century Cuba was exporting 300 million hand made cigars a year. It has the land to make as many top tier premium cigars as the world demands. It just needs to capital to get the balls rolling. If needs be they will get it just like they did from European distributors after the soviets left; you give us money to set up the extra fields and train the extra rollers and you can keep the distribution rights for your region etc Altadis would probably jump in before that happens anyway, they invest and get more profits. 1
Fosgate Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 I think farming in general will leap forward for the Cubans in equipment alone if the embargo is lifted. The Castro brothers wont live forever and CC's will be their cash crop with Cuban rum and sugar coming in as well. With both industries giving an infusion to their economy, infrastructure will be sure to follow. Say if the embargo ended today. I would not be surprised to see a modernized farming industry in Cuba with a huge boost their yields and consistency within 10-15 years if not sooner.
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