El Presidente Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 Has the Dow now mostly corrected and are we looking at an upswing in the near term? Are we just in the middle of a slide? Is a stock armageddon a coming shortly? Buy, Hold, Sell? Will the USD continue to strengthen or has it reached its peak? One for the market players/economists/financial gurus. let us know your thoughts as to where we stand and where we are heading
Habano Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 We are coming to the end of the slide with the DOW. You won't see the market correct itself or drop any lower than 15%. Shortly will be the time to buy and invest for the long term.
amart Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 I agree with Habano. I don't think we'll see much of a, if any, slip past 15%. I don't see the dollar weakening much more than it did today. I wouldn't sell at this point. The time to sell as reaction to the slip was Friday/Monday at the latest. I'd be surprised if we didn't see an upward trend beginning by the end of next week considering it broke the 6 month support today. 1
bradbrennan Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 Anybody have some thoughts on oil, is it going to $60?!
DoubleDD Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 I love buying during these times. Especially long term stocks with proven track records.
amart Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 I'd be surprised. I don't see Russia or OPEC allowing oil to get that low. They'll cut production to decrease supply first. The only way it does, in my opinion, is if the US or Canada releases a bunch @Double DD...These are the times patient investors live for! Unfortunately, I'm a poor graduate student who has no money to invest
tjohn7 Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 I would say that things can always get worse, but definitely do NOT sell (unless you absolutely must). The market had a crappy day(s), but stay the course and all will be well.
PuffDaddie Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 If you have a long term outlook stay the course.
Fuzz Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 Weaken, goddammit! Weaken! I need the AUD to come back into the mid 90 cent region compared to the USD. 4
paulF Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 Weaken, goddammit! Weaken! I need the AUD to come back into the mid 90 cent region compared to the USD. There are some(mainly Bill Evans of Westpack) who believe it will get back up to parity by Christmas but honestly, who knows...
srbbones Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 Some of the strength of the dollar is based on the presumption that more euros will be printed than dollars in the months and years ahead. I am not sure, as the US economy/political system my be addicted to ongoing QE, and , like a heroin addict, be unable to quit. Hopefully, I am wrong. In the meantime, I think the long term outlook may be brighter for you Aussies.
amart Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 Some of the strength of the dollar is based on the presumption that more euros will be printed than dollars in the months and years ahead. I am not sure, as the US economy/political system my be addicted to ongoing QE, and , like a heroin addict, be unable to quit. Hopefully, I am wrong. In the meantime, I think the long term outlook may be brighter for you Aussies. Hopefully you're wrong, but I don't think you will be, at least not short term. You can't just STOP 80 billion dollar injections into the economy, just as you can't just STOP heroin without serious repercussion. If anything, it'll be a slow taper...slow enough to not shock anything and HOPEFULLY, it'll be done quietly so it doesn't spook investors.
shlomo Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 Another forum just started a Euro tracker thread recently....funny! Great minds and all I suppose.
amart Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 I'd be surprised. I don't see Russia or OPEC allowing oil to get that low. They'll cut production to decrease supply first. The only way it does, in my opinion, is if the US or Canada releases a bunch @Double DD...These are the times patient investors live for! Unfortunately, I'm a poor graduate student who has no money to invest On the flip side of this, OPEC (read: Saudi Arabia's) strategy could be to release so much oil into market that the price is driven so low it's no longer profitable for US companies to drill and produce. In that case, we'd probably see oil get down to around $60 for a long enough period of time that US firms exit the market, then we'd see it increase again to ~$100/bbl. Kind of like a firm entering a market and pricing a product so predatorily low that existing firms cannot compete and close up shop. Then that firm has a much stronger pricing power and can increase prices as it sees fit to a certain point. 1
polarbear Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 Weaken, goddammit! Weaken! I need the AUD to come back into the mid 90 cent region compared to the USD. Word! There are some(mainly Bill Evans of Westpack) who believe it will get back up to parity by Christmas but honestly, who knows... That would be nice USD will reach 1.16/1.17 by Q4 2015 That would be REALLY nice
Nedule Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 I think it has the potential to slide further. I'm no expert but I haven't been able to figure out how the Dow got so high in the first place. Sure there's stimulus & fake money pumped into the system to prop it up but that's no permanent fix. Plus I have money tied up in short selling stocks, so I need it to drop … a lot. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
earthson Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 USD? About to tumble. I've been amazed at how long the DOW has been holding over 16k. Remember the 14k peak it hit in October 2007? How'd that turn out?
amart Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 The DOW has been holding over 16k largely because of QE. As long as QE continues, it should stay relatively high barring any shocks
Hash Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 The stock market is like a seesaw too much information and data out there , if the Chinese stopped spending on luxury items ( Mulberry and Burberry) the markets go down, if the German economy is growing the markets go up, not to mention Ebola and Middle East tensions, all these factors affect the market,this is the logic of the Interdependent world we live in. As for the USD , is it strong or other currencies are weakening?. The price of oil is dependent on Chinese and Indian demands which has been slow lately. I will buy stocks on a long term basis and not to trade, but one has to diversify his portfolio as much as possible taking into account one's risk appetite. Stay away from Gordon Gekko! Greed is not good.
jabster Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 I love a good stock market prediction. Shows that no one know where to from here! The U.S. will continue down the path of winding back QE. If that economy then starts to grow the DOW could look cheap. Should QE keep going the DOW could look cheap. I can't see the Aussie dollar gaining on the U.S. But we can all live in hope! Long term I would buy the dips. All from someone that knows nothing!
Andrew11 Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 USD? About to tumble. I've been amazed at how long the DOW has been holding over 16k. Remember the 14k peak it hit in October 2007? How'd that turn out? Agreed! FED is in a tricky spot, if they truly stop QE then the economy and stocks will tumble. If they continue with more QE then they risk destroying the dollar. Unfortunately the USD (like all fiat currencies in history) will go to ZERO. My fear is that day may be sooner rather than later. There's just to much debt!!
Merovius Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 Has the Dow now mostly corrected and are we looking at an upswing in the near term? Are we just in the middle of a slide? Is a stock armageddon a coming shortly? Buy, Hold, Sell? Will the USD continue to strengthen or has it reached its peak? One for the market players/economists/financial gurus. let us know your thoughts as to where we stand and where we are heading If you look at markets historically, its normal for corrections of 3-5% to happen 2-3 times annually. We havent had one in a very long time. Investor fear is all that is driving the sell off, and large cap equities remain a safe bet. It really depends on your risk tolerance (income, age etc.) but I would buy and buy strong right now, everything is on sale. “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”-Warren Buffet Expect a bear market in 2 years or so after the fed has significantly reduced its bond purchasing, then move into commodities, currencies and emerging markets. Stay away from Europe and stay balanced.
earthson Posted October 16, 2014 Posted October 16, 2014 I know this has kind of been all over for a while, but for those who have not seen it: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/277873/bringing-budget-numbers-down-size-carrie-lukas While politicians and economists love to spout half dollar words to a ten cent audience, the facts remain the facts and numbers do not lie.
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