Global Economic Round Up


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We have members from all over the world so it would be good to get an evaluation of the micro economic conditions in your neck of the woods.

Have you noticed a turn around in economic conditions? anything specific that leads to your belief?

Certainly in Oz we have largely missed the Global Recession. Growth is getting back to trend terms (3%) with job adds increasing and unemployment coming down from a peak 5.9%. There is a nagging fear here of a China coming off the boil affecting our resource boom but it is long odds to have a significant impact. Perhaps our biggest threat is inflation and the control of costs/wages blowout. With some of the most expensive housing in the world due to an inverse supply and demand scenario, the housing market is the domain of speculators and desperates trying to get a foothold. Increasing interest rates and big mortgages are a killer combination being experienced by many.

Our median income as a % of median house price is between 8 and 9. How does that compare to your area? Historically in this country it has been 3-4.

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We were the last country to enter the recession, and the first to leave it,so the economy is going strong. Our unemployment rate is 2,6% here now, it was 2,7% in 2008 and 3,5% in 2007 so that is pretty stable. I have personally never seen any effects of the recession here.

Our country is richly endowed with natural resources and we are highly dependent on the petroleum sector, which accounts for nearly half of exports and over 30% of state revenue. Norway is the world's third-largest gas exporter; our position as an oil exporter has slipped to seventh-largest as production has begun to decline. But we have now found very large oil reserves on our north coast, so that could lead to another "gold age" in oil exports.

But the tree huggers want to leave it alone (idiots :lol: ).

Dont know much about the housing market , but I think the median income as a % of median house price is less then in aus, maybe 6 to 8

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Damn Rob,

Coming off a 16 hour plane ride, your soliciting opinions in speculating the global economic / financial situations and how it relates to inflation index is too deep for me. I'm more interested in a healthy dose of MaCallan's 18yr and BBF.... :lol:

....

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The economic situation here isnt that great,with alot of unemployment in the unskilled end.

The currency isnt as strong as it was either.

But still,comparitavely speaking,we are rich western world inhabitants,with good health care etc.....food in the cupboard.....

We all suspect here that when the next bunch of fools get in in the election on may the 6th,the true horror of the finances will be exposed...Bankers,bankers.

I am self employed,and have never had a fallow period in 8 years,so....

Btw,joachim,I am a tree hugger,and find willfull oil burners bloody idiots.....ever heard of global warming?

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Btw,joachim,I am a tree hugger,and find willfull oil burners bloody idiots.....ever heard of global warming?

I have, but I care more about my countrys future...This planet has never had a stable climate and it never will. And there are sooooo many mistakes and lies in the different reports that I don`t trust a word that this tree huggers are saying...Is there global warming? yes it is, but it`s not as bad as they say. Some of the huge ice fields that Al Gore said was melting are actually growing in an alarming rate... So give me a real and honest report that backs up your statement , and I will sure have a look.

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The issue of global warming is it / isn't it is an interesting one, but I think Rob was after a break down of how your local area is doing.

My business covers Asia-Pac, and for the reasons mentioned above the standout for me is Australia by a country mile for investment. Economic fundamentals are sound, as you say backed up by a wealth of natural resources, English language, A grade legal system, low corruption, stable politics, low but growing population density, international grade infrastructure, educated and skilled workforce, plus it seems an all round nice place to live so its where my focus is for sure.

Up here in north Asia, I'll pick China as everything else is tied to it here.

It's always difficult to call a planned economy, as the govt has so much control over even the fine details, as well as the ability to manufacture whatever figures they want make it a tough shout.

Nevertheless, I'd say China's growth will remain strongish for the coming few years. Starting to see the first signs of real property speculation on an individual level, with buy-to-let landlords becoming more and more common (sound familiar?), and credit for the masses becoming more commonplace.

Interestingly, China doesn't actually have any real resources to speak of, other than the commodity of mass cheap labour, which has been exploited to the max to get it where it is today. Nothing else. Just the simple undercutting of other nations who have been happy to export production for a quick buck has effectively fueled the phenomenal growth the country has experienced.

This is also its main weakness. The idea that China's growing domestic consumer market could eat up any fall off in demand from the West is total BS. China is totally dependent on exports to nations who are living on credit cards and silly mortgages. IMO, Greece will default before the year is out. This is pretty major for obvious reasons for the EU. And if Greece can go, why not Japan or the UK? The finances in both those countries, esp Japan are a mess.

If Greece defaults it's manageable. If a top 10 nation like Japan or the UK defaults......all bets are off. The sh*t will hit the fan in ways we've never seen.

All of which means the massive bubble that is China (and imo a bubble is exactly what it is) will come crashing down as well. At which point I'm going to hide in a log cabin somewhere in the Scottish highlands with a few tins of beans, RyJ churchills and a rifle.

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Nice call Andy.

I suspect you are right. Many countries are entering a left hand turn at speed and there is the risk of an almighty pile-up that could take a decade to recover from. I hope to God we are wrong.

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Indeed. And if you're honest, and take a really impartial look at the world economy, I struggle to come up with any other conclusion than one massive debt implosion.

Unmanaged debt, on a personal, business and national level always has and always will be a killer.

Optimistically, countries have come back from the brink before - Germany, Japan, Russia - so anything is possible.

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Things here in the midwest US are not good at all. Stock market has been ripping, yes...but the high unemployment for all intents and purposes has not changed. (10%) The way we figure our unemployment out is sort of crazy( but you ought to see how we figure out inflation) and some estimates put the true unemployment at 17%. Until I see significant gains in companies hiring...I still consider it bleak. Housing prices have stabilized in some areas but continue to slide in others..Our exports due to the weak dollar have been good despite the weakening Euro and pound..That has helped. I'm just hoping that all this spending doesn't come back to haunt us. How can you spend yourselfs out of debt? The US economy depends...depends on consumer spending for about 65-70 % of it's GDP....How is that sustainable??

All this bleak talk has me standing on the stool...

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Finland is getting deeper in debt while the forest industry is going bust, public sector bloats and unemployment soars.

I agree completely on the above notions about China, they've lived off the insanity of the west, but we're now at the end of this road. How will their society manage now that the party is over is quite a troubling thought. In my view UK will go the same way as Greece, and this will come as a surprise for many. We're in for a hard ride, my hope is that the eventual outcome would be an economic system that is NOT a ponzi scheme, and that the years in between would not be total carnage.

Or failing that, I hope I live in a remote enough location.

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Just in.... GB economy rose by 0.2% in the last Qtr.

All I know in that up here House prices are still 10 to 15% above valuation Approx £130,000.00 for a one bedroom flat in city centre :rolleyes:

Ss

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If Greece defaults it's manageable. If a top 10 nation like Japan or the UK defaults......all bets are off. The sh*t will hit the fan in ways we've never seen.

This.

Theres a huge swarm of black swans with diahorrea on the horizon, closing in and waiting for to release their ammunition on this fan.

Yet, most of the people here in Finland thinks that the depression already passed and didn't even affect them.

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The U.S. finally realized 1. it was eating its own tail and 2. our tails don't grow back. I only see things worsening for a good long while. I just hope the decline is manageable with no jarring episodes.

Power to the people.

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Aww sh*t!

Now Greece is requesting EU and IMF to step up and give 45 billion €. Give, not loan because nobody is expecting Greece to pay it back. Finlands share is 500 million which is 100 € wasted money per capita.

Just. Let. It. Default.

:)

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Things here in the midwest US are not good at all. Stock market has been ripping, yes...but the high unemployment for all intents and purposes has not changed. (10%) The way we figure our unemployment out is sort of crazy( but you ought to see how we figure out inflation) and some estimates put the true unemployment at 17%. Until I see significant gains in companies hiring...I still consider it bleak. Housing prices have stabilized in some areas but continue to slide in others..Our exports due to the weak dollar have been good despite the weakening Euro and pound..That has helped. I'm just hoping that all this spending doesn't come back to haunt us. How can you spend yourselfs out of debt? The US economy depends...depends on consumer spending for about 65-70 % of it's GDP....How is that sustainable??

All this bleak talk has me standing on the stool...

unfortunately,our leaders are taking the same route;spend your way out.....with what ,borrowed money?

So many bankers/city traders should be receiving their karma by now,but they probably won't get it...

The European countries in the worst condition after Greece are Spain and Portugal,so they will be the ones to watch if/when it gets worse.....

My first response illustrated that people are still spending 20k on their new kitchen,like always,so seemingly,on a local level,london still parties!Who owns the money they're spending?!!

I also plan to run back to the hills,my home,and wait for the seas to start rising :)

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California is still in the throws of an absolute **** storm with respect to the economy. Unemployment is now at 12.6% and rising.

My wife has been laid off and will lose her job at the end of the school year because the immigrant work force is moving out of california. This means less children, which in turn, means less teaching jobs.

My company is reporting sales of 15%-18% less than the year prior, and it is not getting better. I wish you could share the joy of going to work with me each day and having my job, and my livelyhood, threatened.

Both my wife and I are highy skilled, advanced degreed individuals, and the prospects are grim, if not straight out miserable.

It is a sad state of affairs and has been so for well over a year now. I do not see things improving for many years to come. For the first time in my life, I am really scared of what the financial future holds for us.

Sorry to be a "Debbie Downer" but the economy in california straight out sucks balls right now!

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Has gotten better than just after the crash. The market goes up and down and up and down again. The housing market is up in every part of America. They learned from the great depression that the problem why it lasted so long was that they didn't spend enough. It sounds totally contradictory but that's what they did. A 787 billion dollar stimulus package and the American people's incessant need for consumerism and they've steadied the boat. We should be fine. If you live in Greece your probably screwed. Oh, and California is probably in a **** storm because they've replaced their cigar's with joints.

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from the billions of dollars in boats bobbling away down the south of france, i'd say most of them have struggled through. amazing. and the cars etc etc but back in the real world, i'd be more concerned than rob seems to be if china was a problem but that said, i know quite a few people who are absolutely convinced that we are just beginning the ride with china and that while there'll be hiccups, this is early days in a massive run for the markets, obviously resources key but other sectors to follow. i hope they are right and while you'll find others to disagree, some of the proponents of this have been very accurate in the past.

the housing prices are still a concern.

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Has gotten better than just after the crash. The market goes up and down and up and down again. The housing market is up in every part of America. They learned from the great depression that the problem why it lasted so long was that they didn't spend enough. It sounds totally contradictory but that's what they did. A 787 billion dollar stimulus package and the American people's incessant need for consumerism and they've steadied the boat. We should be fine. If you live in Greece your probably screwed. Oh, and California is probably in a **** storm because they've replaced their cigar's with joints.

Sounds right to me! :cigar:

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I am an electrician and over here in the North East USA as far as construction projects coming out of the ground , nada.

I finished up at the new Giants/Jets stadium in Febuary and subsequently got laid off.This is actually the 1st time that I have ever been out of work. A union contractor for which I worked 8 years had no work on the books. Its a long wait at my hall. There are jobs out there for skilled trades. I started sending out resumes 2 weeks ago and had my 1st interview today. I submitted resumes to 5 other employers mostly large pharmacutical cos. and colleges. I may have to settle for a little less money but Its better to be working than sitting around bored at home collecting unemployment. I am also enrolled in a prep course for my state electrical inspectors license.

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One thing you do have time for though is sitting back and smoking some great cigars. Enjoy your down time.

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We are very fortunate. My wife and I own and operate an 11 unit B&B/Inn. This is our 11th year in business. We had a record year in 2009. Revenues up approximately 20%. So far this year we are up almost 25% over last year thru April. May looks to be quite good. We expect this year to be another strong year. Our town has been known to be somewhat recession resistant. I think the middle part of the US didnt feel the recession nearly as bad as both coasts.

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