Hypothetical: If AI Takes Your Job… Would You Be Happy on a UBI?

[El Presidente]

Hypothetical: If AI Takes Your Job… Would You Be Happy on a UBI? 

 

Let's fast-forward 10–20 years.

Artificial Intelligence has become so capable that a large percentage of today's jobs simply no longer exist. Not because the economy is in trouble, but because machines can perform many tasks faster, cheaper and often better than humans.

Governments respond by introducing a Universal Basic Income (UBI).

For the purposes of this discussion, let's assume the UBI works as intended:

• Your housing, food, healthcare and basic living costs are comfortably covered.
• You are not living in luxury, but neither are you struggling.
• You can pursue education, hobbies, travel (within reason), volunteering, creative pursuits or even start a business.
• There is no social stigma attached to receiving the UBI because almost everyone receives it.

The question is:

Would you be satisfied?

Not financially. Psychologically?

Many of us have spent our entire lives defining ourselves through our work. Ask someone who they are and often the answer begins with what they do.

If AI removed the necessity to work, would you embrace the freedom? Would you spend your days learning, creating, exercising, travelling, smoking cigars and enjoying family and friends?

Or would something important be lost?

Would purpose become harder to find when survival no longer depends on effort? 

Kick it around. I would love to know your thoughts 

 

[Christophe]

First thought, this being a cigar-forum: If we're to assume UBI is about the average income, there won't be much cigar-smoking unfortunately. 

It really would depend on what level of purchasing power we're talking. I happen to like my job, and I've got a good work-life-balance, but in the end, the main goal is still to get paid to do things and get stuff I care more about. So the main question is, how much of that can I do or have on UBI. 

If I hated my job it'd be an easy call I suppose.

[JPark3]

Yes and no. The part of me that would be satisfied would definitely take advantage of the freedom to learn, travel, etc. I prefer going to the gym around mid-morning-lunchtime, but I usually have to wait until after work. I've started trying to teach myself Spanish, so I'd have more time for that. I also love spending being outside with my dog and smoking a cigar, and I'd give anything to do that most of the time. My cigar intake would 100% increase. I'm not as well-traveled as I want to be, so correcting that would be a priority. 

With that said, I'm not a married man and I don't have kids, so going to work is a bit of a community/social thing for me as well. Working helps keep the mind sharp and you don't get to ignore tasks just because you don't want to do them, so it keeps me from getting lazy. My grandpa had a friend who used to say, "I'd rather wear out than rust out," and work helps with that. 

[ha_banos]

Earning food used to be life threatening or back breaking. Today it's spending that energy differently. With AI...well, I'm trying to work out my retirement plans. I don't even know what that would look like. So I'd welcome it about now. He who owns energy and compute will become king I guess in the new world. Not much space left for anyone else. I struggle to see into the future. But I think I'd be happy to get time back to be honest. 

[Nevrknow]

So the UBI (I'm assuming since this is in the future) will be the same for everyone? This will kill the drive in a lot of people. How would you make things equal? Existing home owners? (He has a pool, where's mine?) Big house/small house? Neighborhood? Cars? Clothes? I say this because jealousy causes a lot of problems with people. Always has, always will. 

So we will all eat zee bugs, live in zee pods and be happy! Which brings me to the point of IF we make everyone equal eventually...that smells an awful lot like Communism. I know, I know, it's perfect, it's just never been done correctly. (Busted out laughing just typing that one!)

[yuppie]

Satisfaction, purpose, etc largely comes from the feeling of accomplishment and forward progression. Would I be happy? Sure! I could just do art and history all day, raise kids, participate in community activities, etc.

We could all do the things humans do best: Congregate, commune, tell stories, create works of art, and raise other humans, etc.-- Explore the stars? Create new plants and animals? Cure all disease? Lengthen our lifespans?

I'll add: This is highly unlikely that jobs simply just go away. What we've seen so far is that AI is not taking jobs, it's just a force multiplier. It allows you to do more, with less. If things are "solved" here on earth, that means we should be exploring other planets and galaxies. It just becomes real-life star trek at that point.

[El Presidente]

2 hours ago, JPark3 said:

My grandpa had a friend who used to say "I'd rather wear out than rust out," 

That is a great line. 

[El Presidente]

8 hours ago, yuppie said:

I'll add: This is highly unlikely that jobs simply just go away. What we've seen so far is that AI is not taking jobs, it's just a force multiplier. 

Jury's out at this time, and we are 3 1/2 years into the current AI transformation. I am leaning into your thought process...with a ton of caveats. 

8 hours ago, yuppie said:

If things are "solved" here on earth, that means we should be exploring other planets and galaxies. It just becomes real-life star trek at that point.

Supposition. Wouldn't cost synergies mean space exploration will be the domain of AI Robots? You don't need to feed them, toilet them, terra environment them. There will be no "Captain Kirks and crew". 

[AshMe Nothing]

I work a DuPont rotating swing shift in the energy sector. AI is actively causing a boom in my field of work. I would love to ditch the shift work as it’s proven to take years off of your life. This becomes much harder the older I get. Going on 20yrs now in various rolls and locations. Physically and psychologically I would be satisfied.

IF all things were paid I believe it would not just speed up my retirement but the retirement of MANY skilled workers. That knowledge vacuum would difficult to overcome in my business. It’s already causing difficulties. AI will definitely play a roll. We already have a $300k robot dog that can inspect places not deemed safe for humans to enter. NDT (Non-Destructive Testing), data analysis, energy conservation, data centers are all getting more efficient all the time, but it comes with an increasing amount of complexity and specialization. AI would need to exponentially improve the reliability and safety of what I do in a relatively short amount of time. I think rolls/jobs will change and evolve but most likely never be replaced entirely. We will just need more specialized technicians.

Firstly, I would buy a bigger humidor. Secondly, health permitting, I would continue my flight instruction to Instrument, Multi-engine, possibly beyond. Thirdly, I would buy a small plane with a couple thousand pounds of useful load. An “SUV with wings”. Assuming that it was in the budget. Fourthly, I would buy and RV/camper or some travel type of home. Minimalist. Lastly, I would travel as much as possible.

Never on-call and never work another night shift. Happy, happy, happy! 

[MadridPuros]

Absolutely not! I just got together at a coffee shop on Friday with one of the most interesting people I’ve ever met. A decorated US Army soldier who did at least 5 tours in Afghanistan and 5 in Iraq and many many other countries. Eventually became an Army Ranger was jumping out of helicopters, doing real “bad ass” stuff. Retired and he became a Post Master over the entire city of Miami and eventually San Antonio. Now he retired from that and is telling me he’s never not had a purpose or mission. He’s having to spend time alone finding out who he truly is and isn’t really enjoying it. 

I fear that would happen to a lot of us. Work gives a lot of us a sense of purpose, even if we don’t realize it in the moment. 

[JPark3]

4 hours ago, MadridPuros said:

Absolutely not! I just got together at a coffee shop on Friday with one of the most interesting people I’ve ever met. A decorated US Army soldier who did at least 5 tours in Afghanistan and 5 in Iraq and many many other countries. Eventually became an Army Ranger was jumping out of helicopters, doing real “bad ass” stuff. Retired and he became a Post Master over the entire city of Miami and eventually San Antonio. Now he retired from that and is telling me he’s never not had a purpose or mission. He’s having to spend time alone finding out who he truly is and isn’t really enjoying it. 

I fear that would happen to a lot of us. Work gives a lot of us a sense of purpose, even if we don’t realize it in the moment. 

I work at a university, and while I don't have consistent interaction with students or other faculty and staff outside of my department, just walking around campus and absorbing the environment makes me feel like I'm a part of a lively community. I make a point to walk around campus every day, especially when I have a lot of work at my desk. Being around people sparks something that can't be replicated, in my opinion.

[yuppie]

7 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Supposition. Wouldn't cost synergies mean space exploration will be the domain of AI Robots? You don't need to feed them, toilet them, terra environment them. There will be no "Captain Kirks and crew". 

There will still be cowboys, astronauts, explorers and adventurers. Think of Interstellar, they brought along TARS and CASE, but humans still went along. We won't stop thrill seeking. Again: Think "force multiplier".

[BrightonCorgi]

Lottery winning I'd be happy. UBI, not so much.

[Capn_Jackson]

A caveat question: In the proposed situation, you said we’d be able to start a business. Would that come with the potential or the legal right to earn extra income? Or perhaps to trade for services/goods (cigars!)? I suppose if there were a UBI, but I had the freedom and ability to earn extra income or luxuries through creating art, brewing beer, building furniture, providing musical services, etc, I would be good with that. Without the ability to earn extra or perform trade for those luxuries, then I think as @Nevrknow pointed out, intrinsic jealousy would cause upheaval, and that could be a baaaaad thing.

[yuppie]

Purpose + Community = Fulfillment. Removing the need to work (menial, tedious tasks) gives rise to the desire to work (fulfilling, exciting/interesting projects/goals). If you could do anything, what would you do? Build that garden, learn that skill, write that novel. Catch up with old friends, perfect that recipe, teach the younger generations. The future is bright.

Disclaimer: I work closer to AI than you think.

[Bagman]

8 hours ago, yuppie said:

Purpose + Community = Fulfillment. Removing the need to work (menial, tedious tasks) gives rise to the desire to work (fulfilling, exciting/interesting projects/goals). If you could do anything, what would you do? Build that garden, learn that skill, write that novel. Catch up with old friends, perfect that recipe, teach the younger generations. The future is bright.

Disclaimer: I work closer to AI than you think. 

Wow, I think you may be SLIGHTLY wrong there! Cuba basically has UBI, how has that worked out? For those that have been there, the answer is obvious. They just sort of "exist" there. Walking round with little purpose. People don't thrive in the absence of work. They wither away. What happens to people in retirement will be happening to people in their 20's. The only people who push the positivity of an AI future is those that are currently profiting from it, which clearly you are. I have now banned you from future free well-aged cigars    

Disclaimer:  I will be replaced by AI sooner than others.

[Puros Y Vino]

AI will take the "thinking" jobs. Financial specialists/accountants, programmers, IT admins, etc. In other fields and disciplines you'll see the same thing. And they wont do them necessarily better. The only thing left will be physical grunt work. Wages will plummet and people will compete, to their detriment, for these manual labour jobs. If you get hurt, there's 100's in line waiting to take your job. When you examine the people pushing AI and their personally held beliefs, you'll see the dystopian, inhumane ideals they cling to. Their vision is not Utopian. It's not to make life better for the general population. It's to correct socio-enconomics back to feudal times, heck, even slavery.  

UBI is just "anti-revolution" insurance. If it can be signed up for and given out easily, it can be reduced or removed easily as well. Once you depend on it, you'll be compliant to keep getting it. "Work" is something we need to do to survive. If you're lucky, you'll be able to somewhat do something you like for a living. Especially if you grow up in a 1st world country. If you come from a stable household with an above modest income, you can go to school and get into a discipline that appeals to you and can help you earn a living. If you don't, then it's the mines or begging for you.   

AI is a scam. It's been trained by illegally accessing human works. Literature, art, scientific research, etc. The brute force approach in the most prevalent NPU's burn up way too much power. There are better ones that use a fraction of the power and are far more efficient, thereby requiring less infrastructure to deliver the same or better results. It's a gold rush for Tech companies and charlatans. A new "bubble" waiting to burst. The real goal of this enormous compute power lies in surveillance. Their ability to sift through Petabytes of data is what they're really good at. There will be exceptions, "AshMe Nothing" brought up a good one above. But, I'll bet that if that $300K robot dog gets stuck somewhere and has to be retrieved. Another robot dog isn't going in to get it. A human will. There's no better machine than the human body and the brain that controls it. There will be good use cases for sure. Call me a skeptic, but whenever something is pushed so heavily and marketed as a panacea, it's generally not to everyone's benefit. Only a few. And taking things back to the original query of this post. UBI isn't going to fulfill anything beyond your basic needs. Which will be whittled down by constant inflation. Sure, you may be able to pursue some labours of love. Art, music, enjoying a cigar, reading more books, etc. But your means to "earn"  a living will become far easier to take from you. Any money saved by not paying you to your highest potential, will be used to suppress your resentment.  

[El Presidente]

8 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

AI will take the "thinking" jobs. Financial specialists/accountants, programmers, IT admins, etc. In other fields and disciplines you'll see the same thing. And they wont do them necessarily better. The only thing left will be physical grunt work. Wages will plummet and people will compete, to their detriment, for these manual labour jobs. If you get hurt, there's 100's in line waiting to take your job. When you examine the people pushing AI and their personally held beliefs, you'll see the dystopian, inhumane ideals they cling to. Their vision is not Utopian. It's not to make life better for the general population. It's to correct socio-enconomics back to feudal times, heck, even slavery.  

UBI is just "anti-revolution" insurance. If it can be signed up for and given out easily, it can be reduced or removed easily as well. Once you depend on it, you'll be compliant to keep getting it. "Work" is something we need to do to survive. If you're lucky, you'll be able to somewhat do something you like for a living. Especially if you grow up in a 1st world country. If you come from a stable household with an above modest income, you can go to school and get into a discipline that appeals to you and can help you earn a living. If you don't, then it's the mines or begging for you.   

AI is a scam. It's been trained by illegally accessing human works. Literature, art, scientific research, etc. The brute force approach in the most prevalent NPU's burn up way too much power. There are better ones that use a fraction of the power and are far more efficient, thereby requiring less infrastructure to deliver the same or better results. It's a gold rush for Tech companies and charlatans. A new "bubble" waiting to burst. The real goal of this enormous compute power lies in surveillance. Their ability to sift through Petabytes of data is what they're really good at. There will be exceptions, "AshMe Nothing" brought up a good one above. But, I'll bet that if that $300K robot dog gets stuck somewhere and has to be retrieved. Another robot dog isn't going in to get it. A human will. There's no better machine than the human body and the brain that controls it. There will be good use cases for sure. Call me a skeptic, but whenever something is pushed so heavily and marketed as a panacea, it's generally not to everyone's benefit. Only a few. And taking things back to the original query of this post. UBI isn't going to fulfill anything beyond your basic needs. Which will be whittled down by constant inflation. Sure, you may be able to pursue some labours of love. Art, music, enjoying a cigar, reading more books, etc. But your means to "earn"  a living will become far easier to take from you. Any money saved by not paying you to your highest potential, will be used to suppress your resentment. 

...And I woke up in such a positive mood! 

[Puros Y Vino]

2 hours ago, El Presidente said:

...And I woke up in such a positive mood! 

Keepin' it real Rob. 😁 I think many of us here enjoy cigars to escape the crappier parts of our week.  

[El Presidente]

2 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

Keepin' it real Rob. 😁 I think many of us here enjoy cigars to escape the crappier parts of our week.  

Frank, I know where we are headed. I am just laying the foundation for the "new" FOH members of 2035 onwards. 

 

 

[yuppie]

8 hours ago, Bagman said:

Wow, I think you may be SLIGHTLY wrong there! Cuba basically has UBI, how has that worked out? For those that have been there, the answer is obvious. They just sort of "exist" there. Walking round with little purpose. People don't thrive in the absence of work. They wither away. What happens to people in retirement will be happening to people in their 20's. The only people who push the positivity of an AI future is those that are currently profiting from it, which clearly you are. I have now banned you from future free well-aged cigars    

Disclaimer:  I will be replaced by AI sooner than others.

Cuba is not practicing UBI, they're practicing communism and socialism. The way UBI is discussed here in this thread is that all your needs are met, probably plus a little more. Think: $5,000 per month here in the USA tax free. In Cuba, basic needs are unmet, trash is piling in the streets, basic vitamins and medicines are gone without. It's widespread basically poverty.

The only people who push the negativity of AI are the ones who are not using it, which is to say, they have no idea what they're taking about. To think that you won't benefit from AI, even in some seven degrees of separation type of way, is very nearsighted.

Claude costs $20 per month, but they even have a free tier. I would encourage you to try it before knocking it.

I didn't say there would be an absence of work. I said there would be an absence of tedious and menial labor. Raising kids is work, creating art is work, planting a garden is work, etc.

However, it's much more fulfilling than counting beans or working at the DMV. When people do what they love, they never work another day in their life. So, in that sense, "work" may no longer exist in 20 years (which I actually doubt), because everyone will be doing what they want.

To continue with your example of Cuba: You think people can do what they want there? LOL

The government rations all supplies, including food, toothpaste, you name it. Very far from the scenario where we're all living in such amazing abundance that we can all choose the work we'd like to do each day.

Do some research, try using these tools to see what they're like today, then try to imagine: These tools only get better from here, then fast forward 20 years from now.

It's very hard to have these conversations with people who are non-technical and aren't following these industries. It's all boogiemen and goblins. Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!

[yuppie]

8 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

AI will take the "thinking" jobs. Financial specialists/accountants, programmers, IT admins, etc. In other fields and disciplines you'll see the same thing. And they wont do them necessarily better. The only thing left will be physical grunt work. Wages will plummet and people will compete, to their detriment, for these manual labour jobs. If you get hurt, there's 100's in line waiting to take your job. When you examine the people pushing AI and their personally held beliefs, you'll see the dystopian, inhumane ideals they cling to. Their vision is not Utopian. It's not to make life better for the general population. It's to correct socio-enconomics back to feudal times, heck, even slavery.  

You think that manual labor will be left untouched by what's coming? I got news for you: 

 

8 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

UBI is just "anti-revolution" insurance. If it can be signed up for and given out easily, it can be reduced or removed easily as well. Once you depend on it, you'll be compliant to keep getting it. "Work" is something we need to do to survive. If you're lucky, you'll be able to somewhat do something you like for a living. Especially if you grow up in a 1st world country. If you come from a stable household with an above modest income, you can go to school and get into a discipline that appeals to you and can help you earn a living. If you don't, then it's the mines or begging for you.   

AI is a scam. It's been trained by illegally accessing human works. Literature, art, scientific research, etc. The brute force approach in the most prevalent NPU's burn up way too much power. There are better ones that use a fraction of the power and are far more efficient, thereby requiring less infrastructure to deliver the same or better results. It's a gold rush for Tech companies and charlatans. A new "bubble" waiting to burst. The real goal of this enormous compute power lies in surveillance. Their ability to sift through Petabytes of data is what they're really good at. There will be exceptions, "AshMe Nothing" brought up a good one above. But, I'll bet that if that $300K robot dog gets stuck somewhere and has to be retrieved. Another robot dog isn't going in to get it. A human will. There's no better machine than the human body and the brain that controls it. There will be good use cases for sure. Call me a skeptic, but whenever something is pushed so heavily and marketed as a panacea, it's generally not to everyone's benefit. Only a few. And taking things back to the original query of this post. UBI isn't going to fulfill anything beyond your basic needs. Which will be whittled down by constant inflation. Sure, you may be able to pursue some labours of love. Art, music, enjoying a cigar, reading more books, etc. But your means to "earn"  a living will become far easier to take from you. Any money saved by not paying you to your highest potential, will be used to suppress your resentment.  

There is nothing illegal about scraping every book in the library or every website on the internet. Most people today give all their data away freely to these surveillance companies: Facebook, Google, Apple. If you'd like that to be illegal, you should contact your local representative. Anyone (in America) has the opportunity to move from labor to owner at any point by purchasing or being granted equity in any publicly (and sometimes privately) traded company. Most people choose not to invest in anything at all. Even without the AI wave, inflation is slowly drowning all of us and investing in anti-inflationary assets is the only escape hatch. The government just can't help themselves but to print more money out of thin are.

The further away you are from this stuff, the scarier it looks. You need to ask yourself what the doomers want you to be afraid of and what their motives may be. UBI isn't even here, it's not even being seriously discussed. We're a long way off from all these changes everyone is so fearful of. To me, it's Y2K all over again.

Use AI in your daily life: Cooking recipes, investing and taxes, working on a project (any project), writing a novel, reviewing your bloodwork, learning more about history. Then come here and spout all the vitriol about how terrible and evil it is. It's really not what you think and it's not as scary as "they" want to make it seem.

[yuppie]

How all the AI doomers sound to me:

Absolutely hilarious

[Bagman]

9 hours ago, yuppie said:

The only people who push the negativity of AI are the ones who are not using it, which is to say, they have no idea what they're taking about. To think that you won't benefit from AI, even in some seven degrees of separation type of way, is very nearsighted.

Claude costs $20 per month, but they even have a free tier. I would encourage you to try it before knocking it.

To continue with your example of Cuba: You think people can do what they want there? LOL

Do some research, try using these tools to see what they're like today, then try to imagine: These tools only get better from here, then fast forward 20 years from now.

It's very hard to have these conversations with people who are non-technical and aren't following these industries. It's all boogiemen and goblins. Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!

Ok, you decided to go a little "harsh". You are also assuming WAY to much here. I am a programmer, and I use AI, more every day. Yet you did a whole lot of "assumptions" about me and what I do. In fact, I probably use it more than most. In part because my company requires it. But as you said, "I have no idea what I'm talking about" because I disagree with you on this subject. I would go on about my Cuba point, but what is the point?

[yuppie]

3 hours ago, Bagman said:

Ok, you decided to go a little "harsh". You are also assuming WAY to much here. I am a programmer, and I use AI, more every day. Yet you did a whole lot of "assumptions" about me and what I do. In fact, I probably use it more than most. In part because my company requires it. But as you said, "I have no idea what I'm talking about" because I disagree with you on this subject. I would go on about my Cuba point, but what is the point?

I may have come across a little harsh and I apologize for that. Cuba is not a capitalistic society of abundance brought about by innovation, who is implementing UBI because there is so little work to pay humans for. It's not a great comparison.

In regards to what happens to people in retirement, happening to people in their 20's: Retirement encourages people to slow down partly because they're much older, they've lost the main reason to get up in the morning, they're living off limited means, etc. Imagine being retired in your 20's because money is no longer an issue. You could pursue any hobby, travel, stay fit and healthy, learn any skill, etc. 

I think AI, like most technology, is a net good for the human race. If we disagree there, then I've got some disappointing news for you: It cannot and will not be stopped. It's inevitable, just like the telephone gave rise to the fax machine and much later, the internet. Ted Kaczynski argued that all technology is bad and should be eradicated and destroyed. If you're not in that camp, you're helping proliferate AI, AGI and eventually ASI, just by simply using the internet in any way at all.

The UBI discussion is a clear signal that we need a new social contract should we find ourselves no longer needing "money" to survive. Elon also mentions this: 

I'm an optimist, so it's hard for me to grasp how people can be given such a gift and reject it, just to turn around and embrace doom.

There really is no point in having these conversations with pessimists, because it's all bad, all the time, no matter what.