Trump tells Cuba to 'make a deal, before it is too late'

[El Presidente]

 

 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2kv2gn62vo

Trump tells Cuba to 'make a deal, before it is too late'

 

 

 

Donald Trump has urged Cuba to "make a deal" or face consequences, warning that the flow of Venezuelan oil and money would now stop.

The US president has been turning his attention to Cuba since US forces seized Venezuela's leader Nicolás Maduro in a 3 January raid on its capital, Caracas.

Venezuela, a long-standing ally of Cuba, is believed to send around 35,000 barrels of oil a day to the island.

Cuba's foreign minister responded by saying his nation retained the right to import fuel "without interference", while its president said: "No one dictates what we do."

The Trump administration's tactic of confiscating sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers has already begun to worsen a fuel and electricity crisis in Cuba.

On Friday, it seized a fifth oil tanker it said was carrying sanctioned oil from Venezuela.

"Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela. In return, Cuba provided 'Security Services' for the last two Venezuelan dictators, BUT NOT ANYMORE!" Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday.

"THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE."

Trump did not specify the terms of a deal or the consequences Cuba could face.

But Cuban foreign minister Bruno Rodriguez said the Caribbean island nation had "the absolute right to import fuel" from any willing exporter "without interference or subordination to the unilateral coercive measures of the United States".

He added that, unlike the US, Cuba does not lend itself to "blackmail or military coercion against other States".

Trump also referenced the raid to seize Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who are now facing drug trafficking and other charges in the US.

Cuba has for years supplied Maduro with his personal security detail. The Cuban government said 32 of its nationals were killed during the US operation in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas.

Trump said: "Most of those Cubans are DEAD from last week's USA attack, and Venezuela doesn't need protection anymore from the thugs and extortionists who held them hostage for so many years.

"Venezuela now has the United States of America, the most powerful military in the World (by far!), to protect them, and protect them we will."

Rodriguez said Cuba had "never received monetary or material compensation for the security services it has provided to any country".

While the Trump administration has not stated clear plans for Cuba, the US president has previously said that a military intervention was unnecessary because the country was "ready to fall".

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated last week that Cuba's leaders should be worried, saying that he would be "concerned" if he were in the Cuban government and that "they're in a lot of trouble".

On Sunday, Trump also re-posted on social media a message suggesting that Rubio - a Cuban-American former Florida senator and the son of Cuban exiles - could become president of Cuba.

Trump shared that post with the comment: "Sounds good to me!"

 

Image source,AFP via Getty Images Image caption,

Cuba's President Miguel Diaz-Canel has condemned the US operation in Venezuela

 

Trump has increasingly framed US policy through the lens of a revived 1823 "Monroe Doctrine" that promises US supremacy in the western hemisphere - re-branding it the "Donroe Doctrine".

The last few months of US foreign policy have becoming increasingly focused on Latin America and the left-wing leaders with whom he has ideological differences, with US actions justified as combatting drug trafficking.

After the unprecedented raid on Caracas, Trump said a military operation targeting Colombia "sounds good" and has repeatedly told its President Gustavo Petro to "watch his ass". The US imposed sanctions on Petro - Colombia's first left-wing leader - in October, saying he was allowing drug cartels to "flourish".

Trump has also said that drugs were "pouring" through Mexico into the US, adding "we're gonna have to do something". The US president he has offered to send US troops to Mexico to combat cartels, but President Claudia Sheinbaum has publicly rejected any US military action on Mexican soil.

The US and Cuba have had a strained relationship since the communist Fidel Castro overthrew a US-backed government in 1959.

While steps were taken to improve diplomatic relations, particularly under former US President Barack Obama, the Trump administration has reversed many of these moves.

Shortly after being sworn in to a second term, Trump reinstated Cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, which had been lifted just days before by the then-President Joe Biden.

Cuba's President Miguel Diaz-Canel said on Sunday: "Those who turn everything into a business, even human lives, have no moral authority to point fingers at Cuba for anything, absolutely anything.

"Those who today hysterically rail against our nation do so out of rage over the sovereign decision of this people to choose their political model."

[bmac]

I’m all in on Rubio becoming President of Cuba.

[MrBirdman]

These comments align with my suggestion last week that Trump has no interest in military operations in Cuba.

However, his remarks present the question I raised previously - what does Trump actually want? In Venezuela, the answer's the pretty obvious. Trump may be content with hollow promises to liberalize the economy. We could see a return to the status-quo if that’s the case. Rubio wouldn’t be happy but I really don’t think Trump would care - Greenland is far more important to him than Cuba, and his sociopathic VP is rumored to be pressing behind the scenes against any kind of marquee accomplish for the Secretary of State.

Cuban leadership is in a pickle though - they have no money and few resources to offer. Even if they could offer anything, the embargo would have to be eliminated by Congress for US cronies to benefit much.

I’m not sure where this is going but my inclination is to not expect dramatic change from without, at least for 2026.

[habanohal]

Well I guess if US takes Cuba, cigars will be easier to get. Who knows what his plan actually is though?

[bmac]

It’ll be fun. The US can take over all production of Cuban Cigars and Rescue us from Habanos SA.

[chris12381]

For those wondering what Trump means by “a deal,” I think it’s actually pretty simple. This isn’t a traditional ultimatum. There’s no deadline, no checklist, no diplomatic theater, and there isn’t even an offer on the table. Cuba’s lifeline has been pulled, and there’s nobody foolish enough to take its place. If Cuba wants to change its trajectory, it would have to come forward with something Trump would actually accept. That means real, structural changes such as agreeing to break up the military-run conglomerate controlling the island’s ports, energy, tourism, and hard currency, but transfer control of those assets to the private sector. This framework is being driven by Rubio, not improvised rhetoric. Short of the Cuban government and ruling elites loosening that grip, promises are meaningless. If that doesn’t happen, the U.S. just walks away. Trump is perfectly comfortable saying, “They had a chance,” especially if he believes the alternative is working with a hostile, ungrateful, and obsolete regime.

[chris12381]

2 hours ago, bmac said:

I’m all in on Rubio becoming President of Cuba.

He's pretty busy without about...4 other jobs? 😉

[SCgarman]

I hope you all are stocked up to the brim with CC's. All joking aside, they may cease to exist in the future. The US has bigger fish to fry than produce cigars. 

[yuppie]

12 hours ago, SCgarman said:

I hope you all are stocked up to the brim with CC's. All joking aside, they may cease to exist in the future. The US has bigger fish to fry than produce cigars. 

I'm very curious to see how the next few years play out and what the chances are of Cuban cigar production completely vanishing off the face of the earth within the next few years...

I bet we'll be discussing this topic in tonight's herf: 

[SUP8333]

15 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

Cuban leadership is in a pickle though - they have no money and few resources to offer.

I guess they could offer him a years supply of Behike 58.

[ha_banos]

7 hours ago, SUP8333 said:

I guess they could offer him a years supply of Behike 58.

... Nice 10 years aged Behike 58 in a really fancy humidor. And a free ticket to the fancy gala in February. Wonder how the tickets are selling for this?

 

[BrightonCorgi]

What are the chances that China comes to Cuba's rescue?  Could Cuba lease China land or do something the US would find quite provocative? 

[KCCubano]

35 minutes ago, BrightonCorgi said:

What are the chances that China comes to Cuba's rescue?  Could Cuba lease China land or do something the US would find quite provocative? 

I believe China already has spy bases near Havana and Guantanamo. 

[SCgarman]

1 hour ago, BrightonCorgi said:

What are the chances that China comes to Cuba's rescue?  Could Cuba lease China land or do something the US would find quite provocative? 

What does Cuba have that China needs? Cigars? LOL

[MrFolgers]

17 minutes ago, SCgarman said:

What does Cuba have that China needs? Cigars? LOL

It is 90 miles from Florida after all. China having a larger presence there would be as of a nuisance as Russia in the 60's. 

[BrightonCorgi]

8 hours ago, MrFolgers said:

It is 90 miles from Florida after all. China having a larger presence there would be as of a nuisance as Russia in the 60's. 

Exactly. US wants to be in Taiwan, then China can be in Cuba.  

[MrBirdman]

8 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

Exactly. US wants to be in Taiwan, then China can be in Cuba.  

True. But each knows that putting military forces close to the other is a red line. Also the military value is actually rather limited today - the Soviets valued it in the 60’s because at that time their long range ICBMs in Russia took 24+ hours to launch. Cuba was seen as key to a credible second-strike capability on Washington.

I agree China has a lot vested interest in Cuba, though. I am nevertheless skeptical that China has that much to be worried about - I think the most likely outcome here is maintenance of the status quo with a further degradation of life for the average Cuban. Regime cuts a few deals to replace some of the lost oil, and we see more emigration as the scene becomes ever more desperate. 

[BrightonCorgi]

7 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

True. But each knows that putting military forces close to the other is a red line. Also the military value is actually rather limited today - the Soviets valued it in the 60’s because at that time their long range ICBMs in Russia took 24+ hours to launch. Cuba was seen as key to a credible second-strike capability on Washington.

I agree China has a lot vested interest in Cuba, though. I am nevertheless skeptical that China has that much to be worried about - I think the most likely outcome here is maintenance of the status quo with a further degradation of life for the average Cuban. Regime cuts a few deals to replace some of the lost oil, and we see more emigration as the scene becomes ever more desperate. 

US has mostly been a paper tiger on red lines. Even though we may not be so currently; three years from now who knows what direction we'll go. We don't have a long-term strategy on Cuba that transcends administrations. China is playing the long game.  

[chris12381]

10 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

What are the chances that China comes to Cuba's rescue? 

I think the odds are very low. China isn’t in the business of charity or ideological bailouts, and Cuba brings nothing to the table that justifies the cost. Stepping in wouldn’t buy influence or returns, it would mean absorbing real financial losses, reputational risk, and a needless confrontation with Washington. China may issue blustery statements or quietly hedge around the edges, but it’s not going to ride in and save Cuba. Nobody is.

 

[yuppie]

Is this the end of Cuban cigars as we know it or will there be a new steward to take China's place?

[BrightonCorgi]

6 hours ago, chris12381 said:

I think the odds are very low. China isn’t in the business of charity or ideological bailouts, and Cuba brings nothing to the table that justifies the cost.  Stepping in wouldn’t buy influence or returns, it would mean absorbing real financial losses, reputational risk, and a needless confrontation with Washington. China may issue blustery statements or quietly hedge around the edges, but it’s not going to ride in and save Cuba. Nobody is.

Who said anything about charity?

[MrBirdman]

4 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

US has mostly been a paper tiger on red lines.  Even though we may not be so currently; three years from now who knows what direction we'll go.  We don't have a long-term strategy on Cuba that transcends administrations.  China is playing the long game.  

Well I don’t disagree with you there, but putting troops in Taiwan in retaliation isn’t a major ask and would certainly happen with Chinese deployment to Cuba. The think tank types in Washington would be having kittens over it. China has much more to lose in that scenario - they actually care about Taiwan. Most Americans have little interest Cuba. China is going to be the dominant power in the Western Pacific. I think that’s finally starting to dawn on the US defense complex.

Our military isn’t built to fight a great power war and hasn’t been for decades. It looks impressive on paper, and is in a way. However, when each of your dozen aircraft carriers cost $20 billion dollars, takes 5-10 years to build, and can only be built one or two at a time - the cost of a major war will almost always exceed the value of victory. 

[chris12381]

3 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

Who said anything about charity?

At this stage, any rescue would be, by definition, charity in economic terms. You’d be putting money into a system knowing full well you’ll never see it again, no repayment, no leverage, no control. Only a fool would hand this regime a penny under those conditions. China understands incentives. It understands risk. And it already knows exactly how Cuba treats its creditors. 

[MrBirdman]

1 hour ago, yuppie said:

Is this the end of Cuban cigars as we know it or will there be a new steward to take China's place?

I think the stories of Cuba’s demise are being written prematurely. Unless there is internal division in the military we’re unaware of, a sudden credible opposition emerging is pretty unlikely (and a change coming from part of the military is unlikely to be a meaningful one). North Korea’s regime is still in place, and by most accounts the situation for civilians there is about as bad as Cuba. All that seems certain is that life for the average Cuban is going to get even harder than it’s been lately. God help them. 

[JPark3]

I completely forgot about the Discord meeting last night. Can someone give me the tldr on this subject from last night?