MLB Off-season

[MoeFOH]

Winter meetings done, the two big Free Agent bats off the board, Cease to the Jays, Diaz to the Dodgers... ✅

Where's your team at? What moves are you hoping for? What blockbuster trade are you predicting? Will Skubal somehow end up at the Dodgers and break baseball? 🫣

These and many more questions need answering to get us through the long dark of the off-season. 

 

[Ford2112]

Evidently still my team is at .500 after doing nothing.

[Wookie]

Red Sox ownership don’t care about winning, just barely competing. Spewing farcical BS about “serious intentions”. 

[mikejh]

The Reds gave fans a glimmer of hope for several weeks in pursuit of Schwarber, and now it’s most likely back to the normal dumpster diving off season.

[MoeFOH]

1 hour ago, Wookie said:

Red Sox ownership don’t care about winning, just barely competing. Spewing farcical BS about “serious intentions”. 

I hope you're wrong, but if we don't land at least two significant signings in this off-season, I'll 100% concur. I don't mind the smaller moves they've made so far. Gray's a good move if he's a planned #3, #2 not so much. Oviedo is an interesting move with plenty of upside. I actually think that move will be more impressive than expected. 

But we need an offensive upgrade desperately. Probably two. Or at least 1 bat and a genuine #2 starter. 

Ketel Marte would be gold. I like Okamoto as a fit, too. Bregman's going to want more years than they're comfortable with and I'm worried they're going to play chicken there till he either goes somewhere else or they overpay in desperation. 

[Ford2112]

If we are to compete in the NL West the Giants need to make pitching moves, we need a bonafide 2nd baseman, and a right field upgrade. 

[riderpride]

A lot of Jays rumors going round, both additions and subtractions. 

Berrios' elbow injury in Sept caused him to slide down the order, but his refusal to play out of the bullpen in the playoffs definitely didn't sit well with some. He's capable of a bounce-back year or two and I hope he's able to land somewhere in a starting rotation. Who knew Yesavage would have that kind of impact in a few short weeks after starting the season in A ball.

Santander is a big question mark after missing the bulk of his first season with the team. His defense could be better in RF, and it's either platoon him with Barger, or move him and go for Tucker. I guess there's also the chance they hang onto him and move him to DH after George is done.

Will Bo stay? Rumors of him staying in the division are getting loud. Glad he seems good moving to 2nd as most teams are solid at SS but could use his bat.

No matter what happens, it's tough to make it out of the ALE, so luck will be a necessity.

Cheers! 

[riderpride]

2 hours ago, mikejh said:

The Reds gave fans a glimmer of hope for several weeks in pursuit of Schwarber, and now it’s most likely back to the normal dumpster diving off season.

The curse of Marge 😞

I tell my kids about it everytime we go to Burger King. Truely fit for kings.

Cheers!

[Capn_Jackson]

My team no longer has Bochy. My team no longer has my two favorite players, Jonah and Adolis. My team no longer has Marcus Semien. My team has a very expensive retractable roof that will probably be open for 10 games all year, tops.

At the end of the season, they will have some losses and, probably, some wins. That's all I know for sure.

[zacca]

6 hours ago, Wookie said:

Red Sox ownership don’t care about winning, just barely competing. Spewing farcical BS about “serious intentions”. 

Just like the Phillies, with their lineups propensity to go ice cold when the pressure is on, they go and do…exactly the same thing again. 

[MrBirdman]

This is the first year in a while I’m having trouble staying engaged. The Phillies seem snake bit in October, and it’s hard to get excited when the “big fish” you’re hunting are mostly players who were on your team two months ago. 

The Phillies overpaid for Schwarber, in my opinion. If they get another season or two like last year it’ll be a good signing, but I’m very wary of sluggers with huge seasons in a contract year, especially late in their career. The Orioles, intentionally or not, have successfully bid up several of the contracts signed thus far without landing anything. The word in Philly is that Schwarber was prepared to accept a deal similar to what the pirates offered (4/$125M), but then were forced to match the Orioles unexpected bid at the last minute. Phils fans born before the late 90’s still have painful memories of Ryan Howard’s albatross of a contract hanging around the team’s neck for years. The game admittedly has changed since then, and Schwarber isn’t helpless against breaking balls. 

To me the big story to follow over the next few months is going to be what players and owners opening bids are for the next CBA. It is likely to prove to be the most intense labor battle since 1995, unless there’s a short extension (unlikely). The next CBA could fundamentally change the economics of the game.

I don’t know what my prediction on the salary cap issue is, but Dodgers ownership seems to think the owners will cave given they’re pushing payroll over $400M. Either that or they assume the terms for getting compliant will reward teams that overspend now. 

[MrBirdman]

5 hours ago, MoeFOH said:

Will Skubal somehow end up at the Dodgers and break baseball? 🫣

I suspect the proportion of core MLB fans who’d support a labor stoppage to get a salary cap is close to 50% already, maybe higher. Any team trading for him is gonna give him a contract, and if it’s the Dodgers you’re going to start seeing fans demanding a salary cap not just supporting one. Maybe I’m wrong above and the Dodgers want to maximize their spending advantage while they can, or maybe this is reverse collusion - the owners encouraging one team to spend an ungodly amount of money to make sure they get a salary cap. 

[riderpride]

13 minutes ago, MrBirdman said:

I suspect the proportion of core MLB fans who’d support a labor stoppage to get a salary cap is close to 50% already, maybe higher. Any team trading for him is gonna give him a contract, and if it’s the Dodgers you’re going to start seeing fans demanding a salary cap not just supporting one. Maybe I’m wrong above and the Dodgers want to maximize their spending advantage while they can, or maybe this is reverse collusion - the owners encouraging one team to spend an ungodly amount of money to make sure they get a salary cap. 

Salaries are getting stupid at a rapidly expanding rate. I couldn't even spend someone else's money on the top tier. I'd rather let the kids play and see what they can do.

$30+ mil for a guy who's going to be under-performing for the last 4 or 5 years just to have a shot now blows my mind. 

I'm glad the contract runs into next Dec as I hate the thought of a stoppage during the season or a season ending one. The Expos had a great team in 94 despite the corruption and incredible cheapness of that market - two points which were essentially ignored in their Netflix documentary. They lost the magic permanently after that.

Cheers!

[JohnS]

4 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

This is the first year in a while I’m having trouble staying engaged. The Phillies seem snake bit in October, and it’s hard to get excited when the “big fish” you’re hunting are mostly players who were on your team two months ago. 

The Phillies overpaid for Schwarber, in my opinion. If they get another season or two like last year it’ll be a good signing, but I’m very wary of sluggers with huge seasons in a contract year, especially late in their career. The Orioles, intentionally or not, have successfully bid up several of the contracts signed thus far without landing anything. The word in Philly is that Schwarber was prepared to accept a deal similar to what the pirates offered (4/$125M), but then were forced to match the Orioles unexpected bid at the last minute. Phils fans born before the late 90’s still have painful memories of Ryan Howard’s albatross of a contract hanging around the team’s neck for years. The game admittedly has changed since then, and Schwarber isn’t helpless against breaking balls. 

To me the big story to follow over the next few months is going to be what players and owners opening bids are for the next CBA. It is likely to prove to be the most intense labor battle since 1995, unless there’s a short extension (unlikely). The next CBA could fundamentally change the economics of the game.

I don’t know what my prediction on the salary cap issue is, but Dodgers ownership seems to think the owners will cave given they’re pushing payroll over $400M. Either that or they assume the terms for getting compliant will reward teams that overspend now. 

This is all absolutely spot on! 👍

[JohnS]

As a Mets fan, I'm not devastated by what's transpired this offseason so far. Sure, I would have like Edwin Diaz to stay but if he doesn't want to, it's better that he left. I'm getting a little 'miffed' at unsubstantiated and speculative media reports that every single free agent on the market is coming to the Mets. They're not.

If you want to make sense of what David Stearns, the General Manager, is doing, one needs to understand that there's been a core group of players that have been together for six years or so that have failed to 'gel' as a team, lacked success in reaching the playoffs, and as these players age, it was time they moved on. This is very difficult on fans but necessary. 

Fans have these big thing about winning an offseason, but in the last few years I could tell you that the Mets played better in 2024 than they did the proceeding years that they had big offseason moves. I would like to add the case of the Toronto Blue Jays offseason last year. 2025 turned out alright for them.

Teams like the Brewers and Reds reached the postseason in 2025 and they are considered 'small market' teams. You don't need free agents aged in their 30s who are on the decline to be competitive. You just need a team that 'gels' and catches on with the spirit of winning. There are plenty of examples of teams like this over the years.

[MrBirdman]

41 minutes ago, JohnS said:

You don't need free agents aged in their 30s who are on the decline to be competitive. You just need a team that 'gels' and catches on with the spirit of winning. There are plenty of examples of teams like this over the years.

Absolutely John - it’s more challenging, and requires a strong commitment to good drafting and player development so you have a lot of salary controlled players. In that respect, there are some teams that have “it” and others who don’t. Ownership plays a big role there. My dad is a Pirates fan and doesn’t think a salary cap will help them much because the organization is clueless, starting with the owner. With revenue sharing you can sell an objectively terrible product few want (look at attendance in Pittsburgh) but still break even, or even make money. 

Big money teams like the Mets have more flexibility financially to bring in free agents, but successful teams usually have a core of home grown talent (even if they aren’t the biggest stars on the team). Why? I think it goes back to your point - players who come up through the same system are more likely to gel. They’re still kids when they start rookie ball - an organization’s farm system exerts huge influence and can make or break a career. The evil empire Yankees spent huge but legends like Jeter and Rivera were Yankees-raised. In that respect the Dodgers are a bit of an anamoly. It doesn’t hurt that their marquee signing is the best baseball player since Babe Ruth, and at his current rate will probably retire as the best ever. 

One issue with the big money approach of signing lots of free agents is you’re gonna strike out on some big money signings, and you’re also giving up draft capital due to MLB rules. The Phillies stopped investing in their farm in 2007 to fund their mini dynasty (started with a home grown core). Not only did their collective draftees 2006-2016 produce the lowest WAR, they were so far behind that you could’ve added Mike Trout to their list of draftees and they’d still have been in last place. Fortunately they’ve since righted the ship there, thanks largely to Middleton taking majority ownership.

 

[MrBirdman]

4 hours ago, riderpride said:

I'm glad the contract runs into next Dec as I hate the thought of a stoppage during the season or a season ending one.

The players that year decided to strike before their contract actually expired, which is why it happened mid-season. I think everyone recognizes the damage that approach did to the game was so significant that it’s very unlikely to happen again. 

If the owners draw a line in the sand on a cap, we’re gonna have at least a delayed start to the season, maybe even a cancellation. I feel the dodgers second consecutive WS win made it inevitable for owners to push for a cap this time - a lot of fans want it now whereas in 1995 fans were much more ambivalent about it. 

This time I’d put my money on the owners if they’re willing to make significant concessions on faster free agency, higher minimum salaries and arbitration deals, and a payroll minimum. If they offer enough the union leadership will have a hard time convincing younger players under team control to forgo a year of money and service time to save a system where (like the economy in general) the very top earner salaries are growing faster than everyone else’s.