Cuba Is 'Collapsing' As 'Warning Signs' Continue To Mount

[El Presidente]

Cuba Is 'Collapsing' As 'Warning Signs' Continue To Mount

https://www.latintimes.com/journalist-claims-hill-op-ed-that-cuba-collapsing-warning-signs-continue-mount-590489

An American journalist claimed the Cuban regime is "collapsing" in an op-ed published on The Hill. Concretely, Daniel Allott said such a scenario could have far-reaching consequences extending beyond the island.

The journalist detailed the island's economic and social collapse, with a perpetually-weakening currency and a failing electrical grid. He noted that while authorities claimed it was a result of mechanical failures, residents pointed to decades of mismanagement.

The country's energy infrastructure is dependent on outdated plants and high-sulfur crude, and is operating on sporadic fuel shipments from Venezuela, Russia, and Mexico. Venezuela, once Cuba's main supplier, has sharply reduced deliveries as it faces a crisis of its own as a result of military pressure from the Donald Trump administration.

He went on to say that economic effects are visible across Cuba, with inflation and currency devaluation rendering most state salaries nearly worthless, equivalent to less than $20 a month on the informal market. Gasoline shortages have driven up costs, and many rural areas now rely on bicycles or horse carts for transport. Tourism, long the island's primary source of foreign income, has also fallen by more than half over the past decade.

Agriculture has suffered similar decline, Allott added. The sugar harvest, once the backbone of Cuba's exports, is expected to fall below 200,000 tons, the lowest since the 19th century. He also noted that almost two million Cubans, close to 20 percent of the population, have emigrated in the past four years. As a result, hospitals are reporting doctor shortages, universities are lacking faculty and businesses can't find skilled labor.

As a result, the journalist concluded, "the pillars that once held Cuban socialism upright are giving way all at once." "Venezuela's collapse dominates the headlines, but Cuba's slow-motion breakdown could have far more profound consequences. A failed state just 90 miles from Florida would unleash new migration waves, invite rival powers into the region, and test America's resolve," he finished.

In this context, Prominent Cuban dissident Jose Daniel Ferrer said conditions are given for the "end of the tyranny" in Havana and called on U.S. President Donald Trump for help.

Ferrer, who on Monday was released from prison and exiled from the country, said his "request for the administration is that we need as much support as possible so, in three and a half years, before this administration ends, we no longer have tyranny in Cuba."

During a press conference in Miami, Ferrer added that "all factors are given so these end up being the last days of the tyranny." He went on to say that negotiations from the Trump administration were "key" so he would be freed from prison and taken to the U.S.

Ferrer went on to detail that the current situation in Cuba is a "national catastrophe." "It is a situation of extreme injustice, of hunger. There is barely any electricity, medical services, transport, buildings are crumbling," he added.

[SCgarman]

Once the first domino falls, watch the rest follow! Stay tuned.....

[BrightonCorgi]

Ripe for a Chinese rescue.

[JohnnyO]

Covid really messed up a lot of folks mentally on the island. They were limited to their homes for a much longer period of time than the rest of the world, along with mask protocols etc. Lots of suicides and heart attacks for folks under 50. The power situation is driving more to the brink of madness. Their lives center around when the power will be on. If the power is off you might be told don't come to work or school. When the power comes on they drop whatever they are doing and concentrate on cooking meals, washing clothes. They might have to do this without sleeping the night before, because the mosquitos kept them up all night. If you are lucky you have a generator and most can't afford the fuel. Tourism is down around 25% from last year and I don't see it getting better. Many have accepted that extended power outages are a normal thing. Chikungunya virus showed up in the port of Matanzas a few weeks ago and is now in Havana. It is spread by mosquitos and a worse case scenario will have you with pain and stiffness in your arms/legs/back for the rest of your life. As a tourist that's got me worried, so I have to lather up with Deepwoods OFF, wear long sleeve shirts etc. There are rumors that some have died from it, but the government would never confirm that as everyone dies from natural causes on the island. As a tourist one has to time everything around the power outages. There is a schedule for every sector in Havana four hours at a time. But sometimes there are surprises at 3am. Usually I go to my hole in the wall bar/restaurant and sit it out there as they have a generator and lots of cold Crystal on tap. The 3 block walk can be tricky. It's raining, pitch black and you can't see the holes or the cracks on the sidewalk/streets so I take baby steps.  I'm waiting for that Louisville Slugger to get me. But there is no one on the streets, an old lady with a flashlight passes me by. The Crystal is tasting better already...

[El Presidente]

20 hours ago, JohnnyO said:

Covid really messed up a lot of folks mentally on the island. They were limited to their homes for a much longer period of time than the rest of the world, along with mask protocols etc. Lots of suicides and heart attacks for folks under 50. The power situation is driving more to the brink of madness. Their lives center around when the power will be on. If the power is off you might be told don't come to work or school. When the power comes on they drop whatever they are doing and concentrate on cooking meals, washing clothes. They might have to do this without sleeping the night before, because the mosquitos kept them up all night. If you are lucky you have a generator and most can't afford the fuel. Tourism is down around 25% from last year and I don't see it getting better. Many have accepted that extended power outages are a normal thing. Chikungunya virus showed up in the port of Matanzas a few weeks ago and is now in Havana. It is spread by mosquitos and a worse case scenario will have you with pain and stiffness in your arms/legs/back for the rest of your life. As a tourist that's got me worried, so I have to lather up with Deepwoods OFF, wear long sleeve shirts etc. There are rumors that some have died from it, but the government would never confirm that as everyone dies from natural causes on the island. As a tourist one has to time everything around the power outages. There is a schedule for every sector in Havana four hours at a time. But sometimes there are surprises at 3am. Usually I go to my hole in the wall bar/restaurant and sit it out there as they have a generator and lots of cold Crystal on tap. The 3 block walk can be tricky. It's raining, pitch black and you can't see the holes or the cracks on the sidewalk/streets so I take baby steps.  I'm waiting for that Louisville Slugger to get me. But there is no one on the streets, an old lady with a flashlight passes me by. The Crystal is tasting better already...

Shout out to your friends and family JO 🙏

[Allroz]

Watched a couple YouTube videos of the situation there. It's really sad to see how rough things are.

[qs210]

5 hours ago, Allroz said:

Watched a couple YouTube videos of the situation there. It's really sad to see how rough things are. 

It really is. What would a collapse of the govt look like?

[chris12381]

Unfortunately, Allott’s article reads like wish casting. Yes, Cuba is in terrible shape, but he ignores how the regime endures. The state and the military are one entity, run by generals who don’t just defend the system, they own it. Through GAESA, which was designed to keep power, money, and loyalty in the same hands, they control the island’s hard-currency sectors, imports, and whatever still functions, giving them every reason to stay loyal. The same people who hold the guns hold the money, and that fusion of power makes collapse improbable. Political officers watch the ranks, dissent is crushed early, and the public is too exhausted and divided to mount a sustained revolt. As long as GAESA has dollars and the security forces stay disciplined, Cuba will keep limping forward, battered but intact. 
 

That said, even a system built on loyalty and brutal repression can rot from within if the money runs out faster than fear holds.

[El Presidente]

3 hours ago, chris12381 said:

Unfortunately, Allott’s article reads like wish casting. Yes, Cuba is in terrible shape, but he ignores how the regime endures. The state and the military are one entity, run by generals who don’t just defend the system, they own it. Through GAESA, which was designed to keep power, money, and loyalty in the same hands, they control the island’s hard-currency sectors, imports, and whatever still functions, giving them every reason to stay loyal. The same people who hold the guns hold the money, and that fusion of power makes collapse improbable. Political officers watch the ranks, dissent is crushed early, and the public is too exhausted and divided to mount a sustained revolt. As long as GAESA has dollars and the security forces stay disciplined, Cuba will keep limping forward, battered but intact. 
 

That said, even a system built on loyalty and brutal repression can rot from within if the money runs out faster than fear holds.

Hypothetical.

•   allow them to make more money. 
•   accept a  faux internal coup which looks a little like:

                       Diaz and old guard to retire in Venezuela with private jet and 100's of millions. 

                       Release of political prisoners. 

                       Permit a one party state for 10 years. Ala Vietnam model. Transitioning to Singapore model post that period. 

                       Private enterprise unlocked at all levels. No wage restrictions. No control by Govt over employment contracts. 

•    In exchange. 

                       Off the terrorism list

                        Permit unfettered US investment and assistance. No international investment restrictions. 

 

Perfect. Absolutely no. 

Upside. US can claim a win. Gaesa remodels but retains control under a new guard. redollarisation of the populace. Hope.        

[SCgarman]

Maduro in Venezuela likely is in his last moments as head dictator/thug of the country. Last I heard B-52s are in the air off the coast. CIA is already inside country. Cuba will likely fall under it's own weight soon thereafter. Libertad!