FOH Finance: Could the Bears eventually have their day?

[El Presidente]

FOH Finance: Could the Bears eventually have their day? 

It has been a long hibernating spell for market/economy bears. With some respected industry players now raising some "balloon" red flags, are we indeed set for a correction? 

I have a love of economics/business as do many of you. 

Share your perspective as to where you think your local economy as well as the general global economy will trend over the next 12 months. 

[Glass Half Full]

When I saw the title, I thought you meant the Chicago Bears

[Chibearsv]

3 hours ago, Glass Half Full said:

When I saw the title, I thought you meant the Chicago Bears

Me too.  I think the Bear market is coming sooner 🐿️

[my happy place]

I see a shift in the US economy and it’s repositioning for some type of reset. I wouldn't call it a correction because I don’t know if we’re closer to the top of the market or if we’re creating a new floor. The fixed income markets are showing some uncertainty the next year or two. I don't want to get too deep in the weeds so to simply my thoughts... as long as consumer confidence doesn’t collapse, and the average American debt to income ratio is consistent (I truly believe this one matters right now), the market will ride out the turbulence. It will probably happen quicker if we can bring some global stability (ie. tariff/trade "negotiations"). I'm not bearish, but optimistically cautious. I would be bearish if indicators showed a global recession on the horizon, but that doesn’t appear likely for now.

Also, GO BEARS!

[qs210]

It's coming.

[riderpride]

Massive inflation in the last 5 years, high debt levels, and pressures to lower interest rates are 3 scary things. Add in crazy high P/E ratios for AI stocks (and others as well) and we can see why people are flocking to metals and the money market.

Something is on the horizon,  just not sure how big it will be. 

Cheers!

[LordAnubis]

I’m in mostly cash assets and or assets that I believe will benefit from a crash. I thought it was coming 3 years ago, but it all kept going up.

I think to move into a crash now would mean some big players would need to wiped out, and I don’t see any government in any position to do any bailouts this time (I mean hey they’ll probably just BRRR the funny money printer even harder). 

Surely it’s gotta crash (I think in the vicinity of 40% across global markets). How can it keep going with record over valuations. I think this time will be a huge influx of money from other countries to fill the void. A lot Asia and Middle East is fluuuuuuuuush with money.

[my happy place]

51 minutes ago, LordAnubis said:

Surely it’s gotta crash 

Why? Most economists have been expecting China to collapse on their own house of cards for over a decade, and Russia to cave under sanctions in a prolonged war in Ukraine, but here we are.

[Glass Half Full]

Oo

 

[tbelle7]

Stocks only go up. Cheers fellas.

[cnov]

Gold is certainly behaving like it's on the way but the market is saying otherwise. 

I'm in the corner of not having a clue what I should be doing. 

[loose_axle]

I'm with cnov. No idea. But I just work on the markets up invest, markets down invest. 

[LordAnubis]

5 hours ago, my happy place said:

Why? Most economists have been expecting China to collapse on their own house of cards for over a decade, and Russia to cave under sanctions in a prolonged war in Ukraine, but here we are.

Good question. I don’t know why. I think the people are poorer now than we have ever been. Suuuuurely that’s gotta mean a crash is coming. 

[REesq]

I certainly believe the AI bubble is going to burst in the shorter term, just like the dot.com burst in 2000.  Whether that burst goes wide and totally drags down other sectors I have no idea.  But never forget, it is a rigged game and it is always hard to bet against the house in the long term.