Where will the Cuban Cigar Industry be in 10 to 15 years?

[El Presidente]

I was asked in an e-mail earlier this week where I saw the Cuban cigar industry in 10-15 years. In light of the post "why no 50 cabs" I thought I would post my reply to the e-mail.

10-15 years seems so far away. Yet I can remember the initial release of the Limitied Edicion series in 2000 and the dramatic internal changes within Tabacuba circa 2005 (drawmachines, introduction of freezing, proper ageing of ligero). It wasn't that long ago.

The biggest change between now and then is political. There is a real opportunity for the opening up of the US embargo in the next few years. Pressure from US business community may just sway enough congress support. On the Cuban political side, the existing regime will have some change eventually. I believe there will be an insatiable desire from Cubans themselves (of all walks) for an opening up of commericial restrictions.

From my perspective as a both a lover of Cuban cigars and retailer I look at it with tremendous opportunity.

It might be 10 years. It might be 15 but the ability to commission directly cabinets/cajon's/boxes of cigars for myself based on defined blends and wrappers. This isn't new. We only have to look back 30-40 years and it was being done. I honestly believe history will repeat itself. Imagine a world of cigars where you may see Fox seleccion cigars again..maybe AJ Patel Cigars. I look forward to a Czar Seleccion 11 Corona Gorda 50 cabinet, a Czar Carlotas Cajon.

In the short term it will be challenging in terms of supply and quality. I will have to rely on HSA/Tabacuba being professional. On that I am not so confident but live in hope. Challenge and change in this industry has always been a constant. Legislative change (on tobacco) is the one thing that is hardest to manage. Still we have always found a way and hopefully will continue to do so into the coming decades.

I understand your concerns on quality, availability, increased pricing. Those are issues that I can't control. Still change brings opportunity and I am a "half glass full" type of person. I will take the gamble on tomorrow as opposed to the security of yesterday. Let's hope I am right!

[prettybigkat]

With the current congress in the us the embargo wont be removed for a while imho.

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[Colt45]

I've stated a few times - I'd hope for an end to the monopoly. I hope I can get in on some Czar Carlotas

[Lasabar]

10-15 years is a long time if you're looking at the future but a blip in hindsight.

My prediction is the cuban cigar industry will continue it's trend, unfortunately. In my limited experience all I can see is some marcas going away (as per the VR thread) and the EL and LE and big ring gauges continue.

I hope it's cyclical and the smaller ring gauges will come back before then, but it may take some years IF the embargo gets lifted. Lots of new cuban cigar smokers will look towards fancy bands and big ring gauges supporting this trend. I even think some of the new designs to Cohiba are to cater to this trend as well not just for fakes.

Either way, I've spent more than my share so far and will continue. If I'm right and the cigars get flashier and bigger then I can smoke what I'm buying now, if I'm wrong I will have an aged selection for YEARS!

[SCgarman]

In 10 to 15 years there may not be any place in the world that is cigar friendly. Government Nazis in many countries are doing their best to outlaw tobacco products. This trend has to stop.

[luv2fly]

I fear that with a new administration in 2016/17, the recent progress of relations with Cuba could be reversed. As "easily" as the opening of the Embassy and restoration of diplomatic relations occurred, so can the reversal. I pray I am wrong.

I hope that the Embargo is lifted, but I am not holding my breath. If US business and the people in general applied the "full court press", change may indeed come.

In the interim, I will continue my protest by enjoying the cigars I love.

[Scrubber]

Wonder what us Aussies will be paying for cigars in 10 or 15 years time....scary thought

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[Fumadoro]

It might be 10 years. It might be 15 but the ability to commission directly cabinets/cajon's/boxes of cigars for myself based on defined blends and wrappers. This isn't new. We only have to look back 30-40 years and it was being done. I honestly believe history will repeat itself. Imagine a world of cigars where you may see Fox seleccion cigars again..maybe AJ Patel Cigars. I look forward to a Czar Seleccion 11 Corona Gorda 50 cabinet, a Czar Carlotas Cajon.

I echo our President's wishes on this point especially. I would love the day when I could have truly bespoke cigars made to my liking in a big cabinet. Maybe then Ken can get his cigars rolled by a personal roller like he's always wanted!

[earthson]

15 years? Skinnies are way back in fashion (in fact, we laugh at the donkey **** RG craze of the late oughts to early-to-mid teens). 50 cabs came back in a big way (since HSA realized people will just buy bigger humidors - and thusly more cigars - if the boxes contain more sticks). The focus is on balance instead of bling, and they lowered the MSRP on Trinidads (to coincide with the major resurgence of the brand)!

[MrGTO]

I hope they keep making excellent cigars that I (we) enjoy!

[Ryan]

The Fox Selections, Robert Lewis Selections, Dunhills, Davidoffs and many other of those other retailer specific cigars were produced right up until the late 80s/early 90s. Their demise had probably a lot more do to with the special period and subsequent control of the distributors rather than the revolution or embargo.

Habanos seem to have gone completely distributor-oriented rather than having any direct relationship with retailers. I could be wrong of course.

The embargo coming down will not necessarily coincide with Cuba moving to a capitalist system, i.e. giving up control of state companies like Tabacuba and Habanos and the associated worldwide distributors. So no change there necessarily, at least not right away.

There will be a lot of pressure from retailers though (I hope) and possibly more opportunites for retailers to form more direct relationships with the export company, Habanos or whatever they might be called then, factories and possibly farmers.

If the barriers to trade keep coming down then maybe factories might come under private ownership or private licence someday and form direct agreements with farms and sorting houses.

Then there might be competition between the factories/companies again. Nothing like a bit of competition to put manners on a company regarding price, quality and consistency.

It's hard for retailers in any market to compete or stand out from the competition in any way when they have no choice but to get all of their stock (Habanos Stock) from a single exporter and distributor.

[aushy]

Wonder what us Aussies will be paying for cigars in 10 or 15 years time....scary thought

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Worst case scenario, the current trend continues as it is now and import tax will be approximately $2000/kg in 2030, which is $29/15g stick. The tax is currently $664/kg, $10/15g stick. However, I would assume the tax would get a little less aggressive and my estimate forecast would be around $1200/kg in 2030.

[dangolf18]

I just hope that sometime in my lifetime Davidoff/Dunhill will get back in to producing puros...hopefully bringing back their old blends. Not sure if that will ever happen though. Not too familiar with why Davidoff/Dunhill got out of Cuba in the first place. All I can say is that I'd love to be able to smoke a new production Cabinetta.

[Liga1069]

I would expect that within the next 10 to 15 years the embargo to the U.S. will have been long lifted, and that Cuban sticks will be stocked in your quality B&M the same as your favorite NC's. However, the flip side of that sunshiny coin is that demand will push an already stressed industry, causing quality to suffer and counterfeits to be more prevalent then ever, and more difficult to detect. This alone is part of the reason I sometimes hope things just stay the way that they are.

In conversation I have heard many say that they think NC's will crash in price once CC become legal here - I do not believe that will be the case. There are some REALLY good NC sticks out there (Padron, Tatuaje, Warped, and Davidoff just to name a few) that I would happily smoke over some of the CC's I have smoked. The work, effort, and time to create these sticks does not change, nor do the state taxes (Minnesota is nearly 100%), so I would not expect prices to drop.

One of the things that brought me to this forum is the hopes of developing relationships with both overseas vendors and fellow smokers, so that when my neighbor is buying the latest online retailer's grab-bag of "genuine Cuban Montecristo seconds", I will be making confident purchases from the same vendors I am using now, and have confidence that what I am smoking is both legit, and of the quality I would expect.

John

[jholen]

I just hope that sometime in my lifetime Davidoff/Dunhill will get back in to producing puros...hopefully bringing back their old blends. Not sure if that will ever happen though. Not too familiar with why Davidoff/Dunhill got out of Cuba in the first place. All I can say is that I'd love to be able to smoke a new production Cabinetta.

I doubt we'll ever see that!

Here are some great articles on the subject though:

http://www.cigaraficionado.com/webfeatures/show/id/Interview-Francisco-Padron-Cubatabaco_7826/p/1

http://www.cigaraficionado.com/webfeatures/show/id/Collectors-Dream-Cuban-Davidoffs_7798

[Lant63]

I agree with the Pres' words, I would love to have a cabinet of lanceros blended to my specifications. I would also love to see cajons again for serious aging, A final wish I would love to see Hamlet rolling with Cuban Tobacco and him having his own cuban brand.