News on Castro i know i know but read it anyway..

[Jimmy2]

Castro's Health Is Deteriorating, U.S. Says

By KATHERINE SHRADER, AP

WASHINGTON (Nov. 12) - The government believes Fidel Castro's health is deteriorating and that the Cuban dictator is unlikely to live through 2007.

That dire view was reinforced last week when Cuba's foreign minister backed away from his prediction the ailing Castro would return to power by early December. "It's a subject on which I don't want to speculate," Felipe Perez Roque told The Associated Press in Havana.

U.S. government officials say there is still some mystery about Castro's diagnosis, his treatment and how he is responding. But these officials believe the 80-year-old leader has cancer of the stomach, colon or pancreas.

He was seen weakened and thinner in official state photos released late last month, and it is considered unlikely that he will return to power or survive through the end of next year, said the U.S. government and defense officials. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the politically sensitive topic.

With chemotherapy, Castro may live up to 18 months, said the defense official. Without it, expected survival would drop to three months to eight months.

American officials will not talk publicly about how they glean clues to Castro's health. But U.S. spy agencies include physicians who study pictures, video, public statements and other information coming out of Cuba.

A planned celebration of Castro's 80th birthday next month is expected to draw international attention. The Cuban leader had planned to attend the public event, which already had been postponed once from his Aug. 13 birthday.

11-12-06 07:33 EST

[Claudius]

He's not getting any younger, that's for sure; an intestinal operation at the age of 80 is pretty tough. Wait and see... Definitely looking forward to the birthday party on Dec 2nd (unfortunately, I cant attend ;-) :-D ).

[Mike33]

»Thanks for the article. I really doubt anything will happen initally after Fidel's death, especially since his brother will be running things. This is all assuming there is no "outside" influence and/or internal strife among Cuba's leaders. However, I do believe Raul will loosen things up and this will eventually lead to open communication with the U.S.

Hopefully, our next president will realize the embargo is worthless, a double standard (i.e. trade with China and Vietnam), and that it needs to stop.

Wishful thinking......:-D

[Ken Gargett]

i remember being told back in 2003 by people who knew him that he had absolutely no chance of making it through the next 12 months. but i guess, the day is coming, sooner than later.

[El Presidente]

I knew it was over when I realised he needed to have his name embroidered on his jacket

[Jimmy2]

LOL

[genevapics]

Thanks for the info Jimmy.

[wp2]

When I saw film clips of Fidel on the news this morning he didn't look good at all.

[skindiver]

» When I saw film clips of Fidel on the news this morning he didn't

» look good at all.

and that was before he died on Oct 22!

[shrink]

I knew it was over when I realised he needed to have his name embroidered on his jacket

Gee, I sure hope that's more dangerous than putting FOH on your hat.

[Jimmy2]

Brian Latell, a former Latin American specialist with the CIA who has written a book examining the leadership of Fidel and Raul Castro, said he has been convinced for three months that Castro is gravely ill with inoperable cancer.

Questions abound about what comes after Castro.

In the immediate future, the Cuban government could decide to hold a large state funeral and welcome an international contingent to Havana. But Latell thinks that probably will not happen. "They will be concerned about maintaining security," he said.

Because of the current transition to Raul Castro, unrest among the Cuban population is considered unlikely. "I have not seen one credible report about riots or demonstrations ... not one credible challenge to the succession," Latell said.

Nevertheless, the U.S. government is preparing for a range of scenarios. For instance, the Miami-based U.S. Southern Command is working with the Coast Guard and Homeland Security Department on training and planning to minimize the impact of any mass migration out of Cuba.

"We are not expecting a mass migration, but are ready for that possibility," said Jose Ruiz, a Southern Command spokesman.

The United States has long wanted to see an end of Communist rule in Cuba.

During an interview on Fox News last week, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the goal is to have Cuba hold democratic elections.

"When there is a transition, whenever that comes, it has to be the goal of the United States and the goal of the international community to insist that the Cuban people get to make a choice," she said.

Cuba has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world, but also a faltering economy. The CIA reports that the average Cuban's standard of living remains lower than before an economic downturn of the 1990s, caused by the loss of $4 billion to $6 billion each year in Soviet aid and domestic inefficiencies.

Cuba relies heavily on foreign support, including some $2 billion per year from Venezuela.

That predicament has some observers hoping that Raul Castro will usher in economic changes that could open up the country, even if he is not ready to embrace a democratic overhaul. Like communist China, Cuba could decide to become increasingly open to trade.

In the interview, Perez Roque would not explicitly reject the possibility of some opening of the island's economy and acknowledged Cuban "errors" and "insufficiencies."

"Does our economy require that we make decisions to change some things, to fix what is wrong? Yes," he said. "And it can be done, in the right moment."

11/12/2006 13:15:35 EST

[Claudius]

Fidel Castro's eldest son, Dr. Fidel Castro Diaz Balart , said 2 hours ago that his father is "getting better". (AFP)

[Jimmy2]

What would you expect him to say..