US Cuba Economic Deal Emerges as Trump Administration Eyes Major Policy Shift

[El Presidente]

This scenario (and it is only a scenario), looks exactly like the Venezuelan solution. 

Military remains in control, US business (and political) interests prioritised, those Cubans seeking liberty/freedon get SFA. 

I am not sure how Marco Rubio/Repulicans  can sell that to the Cuban Floridians. Maybe it really doesn't matter. 

 

 

 

https://usaherald.com/us-cuba-economic-deal-emerges-as-trump-administration-eyes-major-policy-shift/

US Cuba Economic Deal Emerges as Trump Administration Eyes Major Policy Shift

America ı By Rachel Moore

 

A potential US Cuba Economic Deal may soon reshape relations between Washington and Havana, according to two sources familiar with discussions inside the Trump administration.

While the full scope of the agreement remains unclear, officials say the proposal could include easing restrictions that currently limit American travel to Havana, a move the president could implement without approval from Congress.

If finalized, the agreement could mark a dramatic shift in U.S. strategy toward the island nation — transforming decades of confrontation into a calculated economic negotiation.

Negotiations Include Ports, Energy and Tourism

Discussions Offer Possible Path for Cuban Leadership

Behind closed doors, talks have reportedly explored multiple economic sectors including ports, energy development and tourism, areas that could draw investment while boosting U.S. influence in the region.

Sources say the proposal may also provide a political “offramp” for Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel while allowing the Castro family to remain on the island.

Another component under consideration involves rolling back some U.S. sanctions, though officials have not disclosed which measures might be lifted.

The negotiations represent a notable pivot in strategy following Washington’s dramatic operation against Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, whose capture and the sudden halt of oil shipments placed immense pressure on Cuba’s fragile economy.

Initially, the island appeared to be the next potential target in a campaign for regime change.

But instead of pursuing a direct political overthrow, the administration now appears to be advancing a strategy that seeks transformation through economic leverage rather than blunt force.

Strategy Differs From Obama-Era Policy

Former President Barack Obama had previously eased several restrictions on Cuba during the final years of his administration, opening the door for expanded travel and limited business ties.

Those reforms were partially reversed during Trump’s first term.

Now, according to sources close to the administration, Trump’s new economic strategy differs significantly from Obama’s approach.

Officials argue the president has demonstrated a more forceful posture in the Western Hemisphere, citing the operation in Venezuela and the U.S. seizure of Caracas’ oil assets as proof of Washington’s determination to reassert influence across the region.

What the United States Would Receive Remains Unclear

Despite the emerging outline of negotiations, it remains uncertain what concessions the United States might secure from Havana in exchange for sanctions relief or expanded travel access.

Trump has hinted at ongoing discussions, saying Secretary of State Marco Rubio is engaged in negotiations with Cuban officials.

Speaking at the Shield of the Americas summit on March 7, Trump suggested Cuba may have little choice but to reach an agreement.

“Cuba’s at the end of the line,” he told Latin American leaders. “They have no money. They have no oil. They have a bad philosophy. They have a bad regime that's been bad for a long time.”

Trump said Cuban officials were negotiating directly with Rubio, himself and other members of the administration.

“I would think a deal would be made very easily with Cuba,” he added.

The president also suggested the island’s political system was nearing collapse.

“Cuba's in its last moments of life as it was,” Trump said. “It'll have a great new life, but it's in its last moments of life the way it is.”

[Dadof3]

It's hard to say how it plays out. If there is an "off ramp" for the current regime that likely allows for some things to change for the Cuban people and how they are governed. How much and in what way we will have to see. Just allowing US investment and travel will transform the island. The tourism industry will quickly provide jobs and renovation. Make Havana a stop on cruises leaving from anywhere on the gulf coast and that's many millions of US dollars spent where very little infrastructure is needed to extract that money. Cuba has to have some sort of stability and support from the US and in return the US will want Cuba to stop advancing whatever Russian/Chinese interests they have supported. For better or worse the US is sensitive to that. That won't change when Trump leaves office as it has not changed since JFK made it a national issue. It's an anachronistic relic of the Cold War but until it is resolved there it remains. At this point, I'd think there is enough carrot for Cuba to provide some modifications that the stick that has been used to now will not be necessary. Fingers crossed this works out and the island can return to normalcy and then improve from there. Just getting the power grid turned back on reliably and getting folks food and necessities will be a start. If they can get travel both ways and bring in hard currency thing will improve.  

[Khimerah]

If military operations are the likely result of a failed negotiation similar to Venezuela, I can’t see the Cubans not likely coming to an agreement. If they get more tourism, stability, and continued regime integrity then it’s a decent deal the regime. Not sure how that would translate to helping the people, it doesn’t seem Venezuela has really translated into helping the Venezuelan people but the situations are different in many ways. 

[JohnInCleveland]

11 hours ago, Dadof3 said:

It's hard to say how it plays out. If there is an "off ramp" for the current regime that likely allows for some things to change for the Cuban people and how they are governed. How much and in what way we will have to see. Just allowing US investment and travel will transform the island. The tourism industry will quickly provide jobs and renovation. Make Havana a stop on cruises leaving from anywhere on the gulf coast and that's many millions of US dollars spent where very little infrastructure is needed to extract that money. Cuba has to have some sort of stability and support from the US and in return the US will want Cuba to stop advancing whatever Russian/Chinese interests they have supported. For better or worse the US is sensitive to that. That won't change when Trump leaves office as it has not changed since JFK made it a national issue. It's an anachronistic relic of the Cold War but until it is resolved there it remains. At this point, I'd think there is enough carrot for Cuba to provide some modifications that the stick that has been used to now will not be necessary. Fingers crossed this works out and the island can return to normalcy and then improve from there. Just getting the power grid turned back on reliably and getting folks food and necessities will be a start. If they can get travel both ways and bring in hard currency thing will improve.  

Is the sticking point always and forever going to be expat Cubans real estate claims?  I feel like that’s the one thing that won’t just go away and I’m not sure how you fix that impasse.  

Especially if anyone expects Cuba to respect the rights of non-Cuban companies to invest billions upgrading Cuba to the 21st century.  

[VeguerosMAN]

I believe that most Cubans want a total meltdown of the regime, but if the Cuban military is still in control with any sort of deals, then nothing will change. The ongoing blackout power issue is nothing new, it has been going on since 2024. Perhaps they will get extra few hours of electricity per day for regular citizens if there is any deal.   

[BrightonCorgi]

There's one thing that will always be true in Cuba: Whomever is in charge will be corrupt. Better to have someone corrupt who allows business and semi free markets to flourish than what is currently there.  

[Dadof3]

20 hours ago, JohnInCleveland said:

Is the sticking point always and forever going to be expat Cubans real estate claims?  I feel like that’s the one thing that won’t just go away and I’m not sure how you fix that impasse.  

Especially if anyone expects Cuba to respect the rights of non-Cuban companies to invest billions upgrading Cuba to the 21st century.  

That’s a good point. I don’t think the expats will get their land back. Maybe the trade off is some sort of tax advantage for capital investments? Hard to say but we don’t really know what sort of “deal” might be on the table. 

[JohnnyO]

The ports of importance are run by the Chinese, nickel mines or any raw materials that have value in the world market as well. Energy requires a multi billion $ investment, ROI: 0. Tourism, the public will benefit from it but the goverment will benefit on a much higher scale. Comparing Cuba to Venezuela is far off. Venezuela has freely moving borders with other countries. They are way more industrialized and modernized. Venezuela has subsidized gasoline for the public. According to the US State Department there is a Level 3 Travel Advisory for Venezuela, this means "Reconsider travel". Crime, Terrorism and Kidnapping are the reasons. This must be the 'lil Vietnam Prez was talking about. No Miami Cuban is going to invest in a government that has a 67 year history of schtupping investors over and over. Outing DC will only benefit him. The locals and the Miami base (this includes Rubio) have a distaste for El Cangrejo or anything Castro. The power outages continue.