Cuba 2026 predictions?

[El Presidente]

It is the start of 2026 .....and what a start 

• Rubio on the warpath. 
• Cuba on one (?) knee
• Habanos the worst PR 6 months in History. 
• Venezuela removed (likely) from financial support. 

Pull out your crystal ball.  Picture December 2026 for Cuba and the Cuban cigar world. 

Much of the same?. Cataclysmic changes? Somehwere in between? 

Call it. Closest (and first) gets the win. The more detailed the better. Cuba generally and Cuban Cigars impact. 

I will run this until February 12...my birthday. 

Closest (and first)  wins a cab (50) of BR Fenomenos. Superb by the way (54 x 7 3/4). 

Drawn the the week before Christmas December 2026. 

Votes in by February 12. 

This should get me in so much trouble. God I love this forum 

 

[zacca]

Interesting topic…I’ll give it a go…

tl:dr

By December 2026, Cuba is poorer and more unstable but still standing; cigars are scarcer, more expensive, and surrounded by more controversy. US/Cuba relations are louder, harsher, and more transactional, not normalized.

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Specifics: 

- The regime survives (2026; not sure about beyond), but it’s a *brutal* year. Similar to the “special period” after the USSR fell, the food and medicine shortage will get worse, blackouts become longer and longer. In general everything just sucks…even more than today. 

- Some narrow, transactional contacts happen behind the scenes (migration, prisoners, specific sanctions licensing, maybe energy/financial carve-outs) but no headline deal with the US.

- Cigar supply constraints get worse. Every part of the supply chain is hammered by the energy issue and macro instability 

- Habanos PR problems linger, and force “changes”. The recent prison labor admission is the kind of reputational issue that doesn’t just disappear, especially in Western markets. I think Habanos responds with “process” not “transformation”. Meaning possible shifts of certain production away from the most controversial arrangements (or at least claims of doing so), but without transparency that satisfies critics.

- Ownership/finance drama at Habanos continues. If the investor side is under legal/sanctions pressure (e.g., Chen Zhi-related), expect uncertainty and rumor cycles all year with knock-on effects: distributor anxiety, more middleman margin-taking, more weirdness in allocations.

- Counterfeit/traceability gets louder. As prices stay high and supply stays tight, the incentive for counterfeits stays strong. Expect more authentication theater (new seals, market-specific identifiers, enforcement announcements) and more collector paranoia.

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What we’ll feel in the CC community: 

- Bigger gap between MSRP and street price, more “who can actually get what.”

- More volatility around marquee names (Cohiba/Trinidad/Edición Limitada type stuff).

- More forum noise: provenance obsession, “is this legit?”, pricing anger, and a bigger split between “buy now, it’s only getting worse” vs. “I’m tapping out.”

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Additional thoughts:

- External bailouts will be partial and transactional (Russia, China, Mexico) but none are likely to fully replace what was lost with Venezuelan oil unless there’s a major geopolitical shift. 

- It feels untenable politically and socially, but historically Cuba has survived drastic economic shocks by rationing, internal adaptation, and limited external help. Especially when the alternative is regime-ending. 

[treberty]

Things were bad the last time I visited the island 4 years ago. I can't imagine how awful it must be now for people of Cuba. 

However, as resilient as Cubans are I do believe that this is the year that the regime will finally collapse. The accumulation of bad luck (hurricanes, refinery fire), public health issues, bad decisions leaving the economy/infrastructure in shambles, massive exodus...I mean what else can go wrong? That said I've been thinking that an uprising would occur for 3-4 years. 😶

The people has to revolt and I really believe that Cubans will rise sooner rather than later (before the end of Summer). The pressure applied by Washington might have an impact - although I wish for the Cuban people to maintain its independence and that change happens in an orderly fashion (I'm an optimist but that won't happen 🥺). Once the regime falls it will hit the fan. Spain could take the lead in the transition and reconstruction but who knows! 

As for cigars: I share Rob's take...not looking good. Perhaps that "Cuban" blends produced in Nic/DM/Hon/Miami with some Cuban tobacco might actually be a thing in the months to come if/when whatever will be left of Habanos S.A. starts exporting tobacco.

It'll be another tough year for the people. That's the only certainty, unfortunately.

[benfica_77]

Energy - Cuba has been highly dependent on Venezuela which now under a regime change won't be supporting the country. Mexico has become a key supplier, but shipments have not increased amid external pressures and economic limits from important neighbouring countries. As we know the infrastructure is in dire straits over all. We will see an energy collapse this year. 

Weather - The expected storm counts in the region for 2026 is roughly 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3–4 major hurricanes (Category 3+).  There's about a 40 to 60% chance that a hurricane makes landfall which will cause serious damage. 

My prediction I hope is wrong but a hurricane hits which will batter already weakened energy system. In the first 6 months of the year. Which will lead to a financial collapse similar to Haiti. 

I don't think Cuba will be overthrown by a foreign government. For the simple fact that there isn't anything of value for them in the natural resources. They would be inheriting a deeply troubled economy and would need to feed starving people and run at a massive cost. 

Cigars - with a collapsing economy and the need for foreign aid to avoid massive loss of life cigar production will plummet for the second half of the year. With limited inventories abroad the price will rise sadly in the medium term. i.e. 1-2 years. 

In other Cigar related news Ken Gargett joins @Fuzz AI to create their own rival cigar brand to BR called FK or Fuzzy Ken with cigars infused with different alcohol. Every cigar will cost $67 AUD. 

[Glass Half Full]

6 hours ago, benfica_77 said:

Energy - Cuba has been highly dependent on Venezuela which now under a regime change won't be supporting the country. Mexico has become a key supplier, but shipments have not increased amid external pressures and economic limits from important neighbouring countries. As we know the infrastructure is in dire straits over all. We will see an energy collapse this year. 

Weather - The expected storm counts in the region for 2026 is roughly 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3–4 major hurricanes (Category 3+).  There's about a 40 to 60% chance that a hurricane makes landfall which will cause serious damage. 

My prediction I hope is wrong but a hurricane hits which will batter already weakened energy system. In the first 6 months of the year. Which will lead to a financial collapse similar to Haiti. 

I don't think Cuba will be overthrown by a foreign government. For the simple fact that there isn't anything of value for them in the natural resources. They would be inheriting a deeply troubled economy and would need to feed starving people and run at a massive cost. 

Cigars - with a collapsing economy and the need for foreign aid to avoid massive loss of life cigar production will plummet for the second half of the year. With limited inventories abroad the price will rise sadly in the medium term. i.e. 1-2 years. 

In other Cigar related news Ken Gargett joins @Fuzz AI to create their own rival cigar brand to BR called FK or Fuzzy Ken with cigars infused with different alcohol. Every cigar will cost $67 AUD. 

…FK Cigars fizzle.  Fuzzy Ken Action Figure becomes TikTok sensation! 

[El Presidente]

While I laughed aloud at the last post I had to hide it. I can only assume you had more drinks than I have had 😁