Happy Brexit-Exit day!!!

[chasy]

In America we have the same debate on taxes, how much, who should pay, etc. It’s tough to see the level of corruption and waste from the government and feel good about giving them move tax dollars to spend, IMO. If they were more competent and I felt better stewards of the capital, it would be a bit of a different story.

They (the Govt) does have a good pitch (whether it be more liberal policies or more conservative policies), they promise a better tomorrow and just need a few hundred billion to deliver it; unfortunately they often don’t.

Given the above, I will admit, I think it’s absolutely wild how much wealth the tech sector has been able to accrue to a few individuals. They certainly have won capitalism. I don’t get overly worried about them paying more (assuming they are actually paying the appropriate amount). It’s more that I think Facebook (for example) should have had a far broader distribution of wealth to the employees.

It’s not uncommon for a Founder to own 50% of their business while the next largest employed shareholder might be an early employee with 0.5%. That’s never quite made sense to me.

[El Presidente]

10 hours ago, 99call said:

 but a group on nincompoops vote to reduce my countries GDP by 4% in permanence, and it's a molehill. Understood.     

Those nincompoops would be "voters you don't agree with"......or as perhaps described by others ...."deplorables". 

While a finger is pointed at the Russians, that leaves the majority pointing to the domestic populace, domestic issues, domestic angst. 

I was with Foxy and Seldis  in Shanghai when the vote came in. We were stunned. It made no sense economically. It made sense politically in that you could understand the circumstances that led to the outcome. Vast swathes of people were disillusioned and that was fed on for political self interest.

10 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

While much of the post 2016 Russia stuff bordered on hysteria, their large scale interference in a very tight referendum on a generational decision that will reverberate for decades isn’t making a mountain out of a molehill. It just isn’t. You can debate how influential it was, but it can’t just be trivialized.

However, at this point it’s water under the bridge, and luckily more voters have gotten wise to their games since then. These days that’s all we can do fight it, beyond making social media companies more accountable for the social harms they cause.

Brett, there is no doubt interference occurs. The West has a history of "red hot go's"  as well when it comes to regime influencing. 

My point is that the greatest surprise...is that any "interference" should come as a surprise at all. 

[MrBirdman]

7 hours ago, El Presidente said:

My point is that the greatest surprise...is that any "interference" should come as a surprise at all. 

Oh I entirely agree, but the tactics and sophistication were new and remarkably more effective than anyone then thought possible in countries like America or the UK. The scandal, such that there was one, wasn’t that it happened but that some people tried to deny that it happened, and refused to acknowledge that the aims of geopolitical enemies aligned with domestic politicians/political movements and therefore might not be in our best interest. They continue to deny it to this day when it’s completely obvious to anyone with half a brain.

America has been interfering with elections abroad for decades, often quite openly, and so I think the biggest scandal of 2016 was the lack of preparedness by the security services, who couldn’t believe it could happen here, along with the unscrupulousness of the companies that knowingly profited from it and the politicians that knowingly benefited from it. 

[CigarCulture09]

11 hours ago, El Presidente said:

The government doesn't spend money well enough for me to pay more tax 

I pay pretty much the right amount to meet that risk/return equilibrium.  I wouldn't pay any more and would certainly explore offshoring/ banking if govt became tax rabid. 

You need to be careful when you tax the crap out of the "founders" class as they cease to exist. Buffets Berkshire Hathaway’s $26.8 billion tax bill for 2024 was happily paid. How much more do you want?  Tax consumption. Tax generational inheritance. Tax capital gain. 

From memory the USA has 7 companies with a market cap over $1 Trillion. EU has zero. Look at/compare, every relevant figure regarding venture capita/entrepreneurship and the EU has seriously underperformed over the past 25 years.  Some exceptional EU legacy companies ...but unicorns in the past 25 years are hardly prolific.  There are plenty of reasons why.... including tax rates. Don't kill the golden goose.

High marginal tax rates can discourage people from working harder or businesses from investing, as they keep less of their earnings. High taxes reduce the incentive for individuals and businesses to innovate and take risks, as the rewards of success are diminished.

[ha_banos]

This guy, Gary Stevenson, has been pushing the message about wealth inequality, the right etc. London poor boy turned rich trader turned economic and political activist. Governments are bust, middle class is becoming bust. Tax wealth not work. Interesting to follow the movement. Seems to be gaining popularity here. He's starting to get some other economists on board too.

 

 

[El Presidente]

1 hour ago, ha_banos said:

This guy, Gary Stevenson, has been pushing the message about wealth inequality, the right etc. London poor boy turned rich trader turned economic and political activist. Governments are bust, middle class is becoming bust. Tax wealth not work. Interesting to follow the movement. Seems to be gaining popularity here. He's starting to get some other economists on board too.

Minimum corporate  tax 18%. No transfer pricing. It's not hard. 

Limit public sector government growth to CPI. It's not hard. 

Inheritance tax at the same rate of minimum corporate tax rate. 

 

[99call]

10 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Those nincompoops would be "voters you don't agree with"......or as perhaps described by others ...."deplorables". 

While a finger is pointed at the Russians, that leaves the majority pointing to the domestic populace, domestic issues, domestic angst. 

I was with Foxy and Seldis  in Shanghai when the vote came in. We were stunned. It made no sense economically. It made sense politically in that you could understand the circumstances that led to the outcome. Vast swathes of people were disillusioned and that was fed on for political self interest.

Haha!  Yep this is exactly the mechanism that the right wing rags used at the time.  “You cant call people thick...they knew exactly what they were voting for”.   Firstly, nincompoop is someone who is silly as opposed to stupid, or at least that's how it’s used in modern day usage in the UK. Did I then, and now think it was silly for portions of the country to vote for policies that will cause massive self harm?…Yes! Do I think those people are stupid? No I do not, but this is again  how Rupert tried to spin it, and he succeeded in cornering the Remain vote in being shy about challenging why people voted the way that they did, and if they were lied to? Who lied to them? And how did they do it?

To me the dynamic of the leave vote roughly split into two camps. "Little Englanders”. Jeremy Clarkson/Farage types who want it to be 1950 forever (and who go largely unaffected by the fallout of Brexit), and forgotten working class communities that have been ignored and left to rot by parties of all colours. Through Blair years and before, you could put a red rosette on a pig, and the ‘red wall’ would vote for it, but taking that vote for granted, combined with the Tories complete abandonment...people finally had enough. 

The right wing press provided these communities with a big “take back control’ button, based on a pack of lies…and they pressed it. So are they stupid? No,  they were fed up, desperate and unengaged with the genuine facts...yes. Do I think they were silly to have done that?..Yes. Do they feel silly now?..Yes.         The stats prove it out. There are vox pops up and down the land (by right wing outlets, trying to get a scoop) and there is a solid consensus. People have “Bregret” they realise they were lied to, and wish they had voted differently. 

[El Presidente]

31 minutes ago, 99call said:

Haha!  Yep this is exactly the mechanism that the right wing rags used at the time.  “You cant call people thick...they knew exactly what they were voting for”.   Firstly, nincompoop is someone who is silly as opposed to stupid, or at least that's how it’s used in modern day usage in the UK. Did I then, and now think it was silly for portions of the country to vote for policies that will cause massive self harm?…Yes! Do I think those people are stupid? No I do not, but this is again  how Rupert tried to spin it, and he succeeded in cornering the Remain vote in being shy about challenging why people voted the way that they did, and if they were lied to? Who lied to them? And how did they do it?

To me the dynamic of the leave vote roughly split into two camps. "Little Englanders”. Jeremy Clarkson/Farage types who want it to be 1950 forever (and who go largely unaffected by the fallout of Brexit), and forgotten working class communities that have been ignored and left to rot by parties of all colours. Through Blair years and before, you could put a red rosette on a pig, and the ‘red wall’ would vote for it, but taking that vote for granted, combined with the Tories complete abandonment...people finally had enough. 

The right wing press provided these communities with a big “take back control’ button, based on a pack of lies…and they pressed it. So are they stupid? No,  they were fed up, desperate and unengaged with the genuine facts...yes. Do I think they were silly to have done that?..Yes. Do they feel silly now?..Yes.         The stats prove it out. There are vox pops up and down the land (by right wing outlets, trying to get a scoop) and there is a solid consensus. People have “Bregret” they realise they were lied to, and wish they had voted differently.

 

For the love of God, stop victim blaming! Right wing press, left wing press, Russians, bla bla bla. 

I know its been a disaster. I have great mates in the UK who have lost businesses. 

3 month referendum, do you really think the vote would be different? Maybe. 

Here is my scare campaign. "650,000 immigrants arrived in the UK in the 12 months before Brexit. Do you want to go there again?" 

Vote. 

 

 

[99call]

1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

 

For the love of God, stop victim blaming! Right wing press, left wing press, Russians, bla bla bla. 

3 month referendum, do you really think the vote would be different? Maybe. 

Here is my scare campaign. 650,000 immigrants arrived in the UK in the 12 months before Brexit. Do you want to go there again? 

Vote. 

 

 

I think that comment details our differing perspectives…..and thats fine.   I think you are much more willing to accept the world will always be corrupt, and its just human nature.    I’m much more hopeful (and you could argue hopelessly naive) that a future is possible whereby people could make the merits of their arguments and policies in a more honest and confident manner, and trust that they will win those votes, as opposed to trick people with misinformation. 

Rob, I’m trying to (and maybe failing) to be happy about this moment,  and your threats of “scare campaigns”. is the whole bloody problem.  Allowing the press to scare us about immigrants, about Muslims, about benefit claimants, about LGBT people, about disabled people for godsake!      A constant cycle of unrelenting punching down, no adversary too vulnerable for a good shellacking.   The endless merry-go-round of fear has worn thin with the British public at large.   They just want results, and Starmer,  more than anyone in the last 15 years is starting to deliver them.     Not spin,  not jam tomorrow,  just quietly doing the job, incrementally moving the dial and making change happen. 

With regards to immigration. Actually having a working relationship with our European counterparts is already having positive impact.   Also soft power and a restoration of foreign aid budgets are also levers to pull to quell the problem at source.     Just today a people smuggler of 3000 has been jailed.   Obviously the front pages, will be “why not more?…..why wasn’t he jailed sooner?” or some other bile.   

In conclusion, I’m far from happy with elements of this Starmer Labour government, but in a strange way, he’s leaving both sides of the argument feeling unhappy, and thus actually plodding away, and cleaning up the mess methodically.   Brexit was an unmitigated disaster, but there is a path forward, and we are at least now on that path.  Again a moment to be happy and optimistic