Trump's Potential Impact on the Premium Tobacco Industry

[El Presidente]

We don't discuss US politics on FOH unless it relates to the cigar industry. 

Keep that in mind or see you in the New Year 

 

Trump's Potential Impact on the Premium Tobacco Industry

 

With the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election now decided, what might those working in the premium cigar industry expect President-Elect Donald Trump's impact to be on the industry overall? A panel of some of the premium cigar industry's most recognized names offer their predictions for Trump's impact on premium cigars and what his win could mean for trade, taxation, and the price of doing business. "Tobacco, Trade, Taxation, Tariffs & Trump" is a panel hosted by Ricardo Carioni with special guests Rocky Patel, Juan Martínez, Litto Gómez, Nick Perdomo, Alejandro Turrent.

 

 

[MrBirdman]

I've watched a couple of the guests and I don't actually hear much about the premium cigar industry and Trump per se, mostly they're all just happy about "getting the country back", lower gas prices, etc etc. I can't find much about tariffs, which is what you'd expect. They actually seem hopeful that import taxes/tariffs on cigar will go down. All of the NC exporters are CAFTA members, so that could explain why the producers aren't too worried about tariffs. The US could withdraw from CAFTA but that would be a pretty big shakeup. We'll see.

Kinda wish the interviewer asked some more direct questions. Thanks for posting. 

This is unrelated to the NC side, but one topic worth following will be any changes to the de minimis import rules. Getting a decent amount of bipartisan buzz, although the changes are likely to be aimed at China and Russia (who could have their de minimis exemptions eliminated entirely). The government will be looking for money though and is in a protectionist mood, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some more generalized reforms. Could just amount to an added fee for all packages claiming the exemption. Likely nothing to fret about, but worth keeping an eye on. 

If there is not a decision in the FDA lawsuit by February the administration could withdraw the appeal, though I doubt that would happen on something like this. Chances are it will not matter anyway, since the FDA is very likely to lose.

[westg]

I can't recall ever seeing him smoke a cigar. I get the feeling he would be partial to a cigar or two. Probably have no probs nailing a Mag 50 and half a bottle rum in an hour.  😎🌴

[ImTripN2]

8 hours ago, westg said:

I can't recall ever seeing him smoke a cigar. I get the feeling he would be partial to a cigar or two. Probably have no probs nailing a Mag 50 and half a bottle rum in an hour.  😎🌴

Personally, I would love to take you up on that little bit of speculation, but DT has always said he has never drank alcohol or smoked in his life. 

 

A quick search gave me this:

Donald Trump has publicly stated that he has never consumed alcohol. His decision to abstain from alcohol was influenced by the tragic death of his older brother, Fred Trump Jr., who struggled with alcoholism. Trump has often mentioned that he wanted to avoid the same fate as his brother and has never had a drink in his life.

As for smoking cigars, Trump has also claimed that he has never smoked. Despite the existence of cigars branded with his name, such as the "Trump Presidential 47" cigars, these are more of a marketing effort rather than a reflection of his personal habits.

[BoliDan]

I really like Litto's attitude to the industry. Looking forward to new LFDs

[westg]

7 hours ago, ImTripN2 said:

Personally, I would love to take you up on that little bit of speculation, but DT has always said he has never drank alcohol or smoked in his life. 

 

A quick search gave me this:

Donald Trump has publicly stated that he has never consumed alcohol. His decision to abstain from alcohol was influenced by the tragic death of his older brother, Fred Trump Jr., who struggled with alcoholism. Trump has often mentioned that he wanted to avoid the same fate as his brother and has never had a drink in his life.

As for smoking cigars, Trump has also claimed that he has never smoked. Despite the existence of cigars branded with his name, such as the "Trump Presidential 47" cigars, these are more of a marketing effort rather than a reflection of his personal habits.

I stand corrected. A bottle of rum 😋 and a bucket of KFC.

[raggie]

4 hours ago, westg said:

I can't recall ever seeing him smoke a cigar. I get the feeling he would be partial to a cigar or two. Probably have no probs nailing a Mag 50 and half a bottle rum in an hour.  😎🌴

I’d be very interested in having a conversation with DT et al over a cigar. Not sure if it would be nightmare or dream cigar rotation!

[rabidraccoon]

7 hours ago, ImTripN2 said:

Personally, I would love to take you up on that little bit of speculation, but DT has always said he has never drank alcohol or smoked in his life. 

 

A quick search gave me this:

Donald Trump has publicly stated that he has never consumed alcohol. His decision to abstain from alcohol was influenced by the tragic death of his older brother, Fred Trump Jr., who struggled with alcoholism. Trump has often mentioned that he wanted to avoid the same fate as his brother and has never had a drink in his life.

As for smoking cigars, Trump has also claimed that he has never smoked. Despite the existence of cigars branded with his name, such as the "Trump Presidential 47" cigars, these are more of a marketing effort rather than a reflection of his personal habits.

Yep he is a teetotaller (as he explains in this interview):

He also had a Scotch whisky branded for his golf course in Scotland (I believe it was a Glendronach). I think the tariffs would be more likely to hit the low to middle end of the accessory market more, much of that stuff is made in China or has supply chain entanglements with China. Wouldn't retaliatory tariffs hurt these cigar makers? Their biggest market is the USA but it seems like they are all trying to expand to international markets.

[BlueRidgeFly]

Interesting video. They all voiced relief about a more favorable regulatory environment, but none of these guys seemed too concerned about US tariffs on their products. Maybe since the premium cigar industry is largely in the "luxury" category demand is inelastic enough...or maybe they are confident they'll be able to successfully lobby to exclude their stuff.