Criollo 2020: Magic Bullet or the Next "Havana 2000"?

[Corylax18]

I learned about a brand new Tobacco strain, being grown/harvested for the Very First time this year. Scientists at the Cuban Tobacco Research Institute released "Criollo Veinte Veinte"/"Criollo Dos Mil Veinte" or Criollo 2020 for the first time late last year. I was lucky enough(right time, right place) to ask questions, (through a translator) directly to the Director of the Tobacco Institute about how this strain was created. 

Its a line bred Variation of Criollo 98, bred specifically to produce large, elastic, wrapper leaves. The institute was given the directive to start this process back in 2015 when Tabacuba began realizing that quality wrapper leaf was a major bottleneck in production. Through 2016, 17, and18 Criollo 98 plants where grown in research fields, certain plants with optimal characteristics, vigor, health, etc. where selected, crossbred, and replanted. During the 2019 and 2020 growing seasons, the strain was crossbred against itself to "stabilize" the characteristics for production. The first batch of seed stock was grown about a year ago and the seeds/seedlings where made available to farmers for the first time late last year. 

I was only able to confirm three farmers planting it this year, the big names stuck to Criollo 98 for their wrapper. While difficult to grow, I'm told it has the highest "ceiling" for quality when grown correctly. We may start to hear more about this new strain if it gains more widespread adoption over the next couple years. 

[NSXCIGAR]

I'm glad they're continuing to develop and refine these strains during relatively good times. It takes too long to develop these strains to wait until it's needed. They found that out in the late 90s. 

Makes sense to have the major growers stick with Criollo 98 as they have the ability to grow it with less difficulty. In fact it sounds like the Criollo 2020 is designed to allow the smaller growers who may have struggled with Criollo 98 to be able to grow wrapper at all. 

[El Presidente]

They have generally got it right when it comes to strain development. 

Potential climate changes means that they may need to increase the pace of new strain introduction. 

Nice work Cory 

[SCgarman]

17 hours ago, El Presidente said:

They have generally got it right when it comes to strain development. 

Potential climate changes means that they may need to increase the pace of new strain introduction. 

Nice work Cory 

Unfortunately they have generally gotten most everything else wrong. It remains to be seen if the Cuban cigar industry will ever return to pre-pandemic stockpile and production. Glad I can sit on my inventory built up over the years and sit back and watch from the sidelines. Crazy times goin' on.

[El Presidente]

18 hours ago, SCgarman said:

Unfortunately they have generally gotten most everything else wrong. It remains to be seen if the Cuban cigar industry will ever return to pre-pandemic stockpile and production. Glad I can sit on my inventory built up over the years and sit back and watch from the sidelines. Crazy times goin' on.

In the pursuit of accuracy. 

There was never a stockpile of any real size. They have been struggling to maintain supply for 25 years.  Regionals and LE's years late. Some cigars never made the market.  It was all "smoke and mirrors" (excuse the pun!).

Covid provided the spanner in the works and it all came to a grinding halt.......except for the part where people were smoking more than ever.  

and just like that.....

 

 

 

Now they will get back to 2019 levels in terms of production. That will likely be next year 2023/24. 

What no one can see is how they can "catch up" to a rudimentary stockpile of even 25-40 million premium sticks (not just R&J Mille Fleures and 1/2/3/ Tubos).  Sounds like a lot of sticks?  Rocky Patel makes 20 million cigars. 

They have some serious decisions to make. It has never been their strong point. There are both marketing logistic/positioning challenges (HSA) as well as production challenges (Tabacuba). 

You would have to think that there is a lot of stress on the JV relationship right now.  It will be fascinating to see how it plays out. 

 

 

 

[SCgarman]

6 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

In the pursuit of accuracy. 

There was never a stockpile of any real size. They have been struggling to maintain supply for 25 years.  Regionals and LE's years late. Some cigars never made the market.  It was all "smoke and mirrors" (excuse the pun!).

Covid provided the spanner in the works and it all came to a grinding halt.......except for the part where people were smokng more than ever.  

and just like that.....

 

 

 

Now they will get back to 2019 levels in terms of production. That will likely be next year 2023/24. 

What no one can see is how they can "catch up" to a rudimentary stockpile of even 25-40 million premium sticks (not just R&J Mille Fleures and 1/2/3/ Tubos).  Sounds like a lot of sticks?  Rocky Patel makes 20 million cigars. 

They have some serious decisions to make. It has never been their strong point. There are both marketing logistic/positioning challenges (HSA) as well as production challenges (Tabacuba). 

You would have to think that there is a lot of stress on the JV relationship right now.  It will be fascinating to see how it plays out. 

 

 

 

Hopefully it doesn't play out with that "mushroom cloud GIF" becoming a reality! 😨, or we all will only need one last cigar before the inevitable. 

[Corylax18]

1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

They have some serious decisions to make. It has never been their strong point. There are both marketing logistic/positioning challenges (HSA) as well as production challenges (Tabacuba). 

Drop PunchJoe a line, it will be worth your while. He had a VERY Interesting meeting lined up Wednesday evening. 

1 hour ago, SCgarman said:

Hopefully it doesn't play out with that "mushroom cloud GIF" becoming a reality! 😨, or we all will only need one last cigar before the inevitable. 

Its only a matter of time. When, not if. 

No kids want to be tobacco farmers, let alone laborers in the fields. Very few young people are becoming rollers, strippers, graders. Even fewer learning how to ferment, store and age the leaf properly. Add to it that most of the already trained employees want to leave, or have already left and its a dire situation. 

They can have all the perfect leaf on the planet, but if they don't do the other 400 steps right, it doesnt make a piss in the wind difference.

[GoodStix]

Please forgive my lack of knowledge of Cuban politics.  I assume the powerful in Cuba have travelled abroad and have knowledge of the relative prosperity elsewhere in the world.  Is there any faction within their power structure that sees benefit in moving more towards a market economy and improving relations with the west, or are they entirely locked into a downward spiral?  In short, is there any internal prospect of hope/change?

[El Presidente]

41 minutes ago, GoodStix said:

Please forgive my lack of knowledge of Cuban politics.  I assume the powerful in Cuba have travelled abroad and have knowledge of the relative prosperity elsewhere in the world.  Is there any faction within their power structure that sees benefit in moving more towards a market economy and improving relations with the west, or are they entirely locked into a downward spiral?  In short, is there any internal prospect of hope/change?

It's a huge subject. 

There are some successful socialist hybrid systems that have provided a pathway for personal wealth (Vietnam etal). Cuba certainly isn't one of them. 

It should be kept in mind that there are plenty of central and south american capitalist failed states (from time to time). Until recently, Cuba would point out that they were doing remarkably well compared to the capitalist Jones's / Silva's in their regional neighbourhood. 

Corruption, nepotism, structural inneficiency, hubris, stupidity, arrogance, delusion, unreliability, ego, violence and deception all come together to make up the political DNA. 

Cuba has fairly good relations with the West outside of the USA. Unfortunately for them, they have very little to offer outside of cigars, rum and beaches. The USA is still the largest $ sandpit in the world and few want to rock the boat by playing with Cuba and finding themselves kicked out of the sandpit .Those that do are already out of the sandpit (North Korea/Syria/Iran) or are playing their own political games with the USA and it serves their purpose (Russia/China).  

 

 

[Corylax18]

1 hour ago, GoodStix said:

Please forgive my lack of knowledge of Cuban politics.  I assume the powerful in Cuba have travelled abroad and have knowledge of the relative prosperity elsewhere in the world.  Is there any faction within their power structure that sees benefit in moving more towards a market economy and improving relations with the west, or are they entirely locked into a downward spiral?  In short, is there any internal prospect of hope/change?

That's like asking if anyone in the Russian Government right know is aware of what they're actually doing.

Of course they are.

But their own livelihoods depend on maintaining the status quo. There are thousands of politicians, high ranking military figures and their families who live like kings in Cuba. 

Some people say that once Raul and the last 5 or 6 "OGs" who where with Fidel and Raul during the revolution die things will start to change. Diaz Canel just doesn't have the support to run things like either of the Castro brothers did. Hopefully/Maybe we see something "break" in the next few years, which may be the beginning of a new path.

[GoodStix]

38 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

That's like asking if anyone in the Russian Government right know is aware of what they're actually doing.

In fairness, I didn’t ask if the Cuban powerful knew.  I assumed that they do. I asked if there existed any faction within the powerful who represented a prospect for change, and you’ve kindly answered that — possibly, but not until the OGs pass away.  Thank you : )

[Corylax18]

12 hours ago, GoodStix said:

In fairness, I didn’t ask if the Cuban powerful knew.  I assumed that they do. I asked if there existed any faction within the powerful who represented a prospect for change, and you’ve kindly answered that — possibly, but not until the OGs pass away.  Thank you : )

Rob's post above mine mentions some good points as well. Its such a complex issue at this point, too much to be distilled into a few posts on the internet. There are posts debating it across weeks on the forum, but we havent solved it yet. 😉

Throw logic out the window when you're discussing anything Cuba, it just gets in the way. Haha.